Jueves 30/06/11 Se acabo el primer semestre

[admin]

Eventos economicos

Jueves

Seguros de desempleo
PMI de Chicago
Reporte de gas
Subasta de bonos
Money supply
Balance del Fed

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 1/32 0.466
10-Year Note* -20/32 3.108
* at close

9:49 p.m. EDT 06/29/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.71 -0.06 94.77
Gold 1511.3 0.9 1510.4
DJ Industrials 12200 -18 12218
S&P 500 1302.70 -1.60 1304.30

10:00 p.m. EDT 06/29/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.59 80.77
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4466 1.4434
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Asia-Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 9,796.31 -0.95 -0.01% 21:36
HANG SENG INDEX 22,174.80 113.65 0.52% 21:41
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,563.50 34.00 0.75% 21:56

[admin]

Copper June 29,21:59
Bid/Ask 4.1996 - 4.2021
Change -0.0121 -0.29%
Low/High 4.1960 - 4.2177
Charts

Nickel June 29,21:51
Bid/Ask 10.3294 - 10.3520
Change -0.0794 -0.76%
Low/High 10.3294 - 10.4541
Charts

Aluminum June 29,21:59
Bid/Ask 1.1268 - 1.1276
Change +0.0023 +0.20%
Low/High 1.1227 - 1.1291
Charts

Zinc June 29,21:59
Bid/Ask 1.0246 - 1.0260
Change -0.0067 -0.65%
Low/High 1.0239 - 1.0412
Charts

Lead June 29,21:59
Bid/Ask 1.1799 - 1.1835
Change -0.0045 -0.38%
Low/High 1.1767 - 1.1880

[admin]

Brasil mantiene tasa clave de préstamos corporativos en 6 pct
miércoles 29 de junio de 2011 21:55 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] SAO PAULO (Reuters) - El Consejo Monetario Nacional de Brasil mantuvo estable el miércoles en un 6 por ciento una tasa clave para préstamos corporativos durante el tercer trimestre del 2011.
El consejo es el órgano gubernamental a cargo de establecer los objetivos anuales de la tasa de inflación.

En la mayoría de los créditos del banco estatal BNDES

se cobra a los prestatarios una tasa de interés equivalente a la tasa TJLP más un diferencial, que sumados son más baratos que la tasa que obtienen los bancos ante el Banco Central.

El consejo incluye a los ministerios de Planificación y de Hacienda, así como al presidente del Banco Central.

[admin]

Moody's recortara la deuda de US a Aa si cae en default y no suben el limite de la deuda.

Moody’s Sees U.S. Rating Cut to Aa On Default
By John Detrixhe and Wes Goodman - Jun 29, 2011 9:31 PM ET .. The U.S. flag flies above the Treasury building in Washington, D.C. The U.S. would risk not winning back its top Aaa credit rating soon if the nation’s debt limit causes even a short-term default, Moody’s senior credit officer said in an interview this month. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
.Standard & Poor’s will cut the U.S. credit rating to its lowest level and Moody’s Investors Service said it would reduce its ranking if the government fails to increase the debt limit, leading to a default.

S&P would lower its sovereign top-level AAA ranking to D, the last rung on its scale, John Chambers, chairman of the company’s sovereign rating committee, said in an interview yesterday. Moody’s said it would probably assign a level in the Aa range.

“We believe the debt ceiling will be raised and the government won’t default,” Chambers said by telephone from New York. “Otherwise we wouldn’t have a AAA rating on the U.S. government. It’s evolving as we expected.”

President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers are seeking a compromise to cut spending and reduce the deficit to clear the way for an agreement to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, currently capped at $14.3 trillion. The Treasury has said it has until Aug. 2 before its ability to pay the U.S. debt expires.

S&P put the U.S. government on notice in April that the nation risks losing its AAA standing unless policy makers agree on and begin “meaningful implementation” of a plan by 2013 to reduce budget deficits and the national debt.

Ratings directly linked to the U.S. government would move in step with any sovereign action, while some Aaa rankings of state and local governments may be vulnerable, Moody’s said in its report yesterday.

‘Not Compatible’
The U.S. would risk not winning back its top Aaa credit soon if the nation’s debt limit causes even a short-term default, Moody’s said this month.

A default stemming from “the debt limit and the political configuration would indicate that, well, this might happen again,” said Steve Hess, the company’s senior credit officer. “That risk is perhaps not compatible with Aaa,” Hess said at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

Moody’s warned on June 2 that it will put the U.S. credit rating under review for a downgrade unless there’s progress on increasing the debt limit by mid-July.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net; Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net; Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net
.

[admin]

El Hang Seng +1.07%

Yen up 8-.58

Los futures del Dow Jones 18 puntos a la baja.

Euro up 1.4466

Australia +0.84, Korea y el Nikkei -0.01%, el Shanghai +0.55%

[admin]

Se especula que Chavez esta muy grave

Se postpone la celebracion del 200th aniversario de la declaracion de la independencia de Venezuela.

Se especula que tiene cancer a la prostata y que el cancer se ha expandido a otros organos.

Health Woes Cause Chávez to Postpone Key Summit

By DAVID LUHNOW And EZEQUIEL MINAYA
Venezuela postponed a regional summit to celebrate its 200th anniversary of independence, a move that is fueling widespread speculation that President Hugo Chávez is gravely ill.

Venezuela said this handout photo shows Hugo Chávez, right, reading a newspaper Tuesday with Fidel Castro, and called it evidence he is recovering.
.Mr. Chávez, holed up in a hospital in Cuba since June 10, was slated to host the two-day summit of Latin American and Caribbean leaders on the resort island of Margarita on July 5 and 6. Prior to Wednesday, Venezuelan officials had repeatedly said Mr. Chávez would be back in time to attend.

But on Wednesday, Venezuela's Foreign Ministry said it had asked other governments to postpone the event, saying Mr. Chávez was recovering from health ailments and "under strict medical supervision."

The summit was critical for Mr. Chávez, who promoted it as an event to lay the groundwork for a new bloc, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which would exclude the U.S. and Canada. The Venezuelan leader has long been among Washington's chief antagonists on the world stage.

"If he can't make that, then he really is sick. Very sick," said David Myers, a Venezuela expert at Penn State University. "Everybody was watching whether he would be there for this. The best version of events is that he's not recovering as fast as he could. The worst is that he's mortally ill."

The postponement of the summit is likely to add to growing tensions in Caracas. Venezuela's opposition called a meeting Wednesday evening to consider asking Mr. Chávez to temporarily cede power to Vice President Elias Jaua, as called for by the constitution if the president is incapacitated.

Any prolonged absence by the president will likely lead to infighting between different factions of "Chavismo," the president's movement. A populist caudillo—whose rule rests on the personal and emotional ties he has developed with many poor Venezuelans—Mr. Chávez has no natural successor, analysts note.

More
Venezuela Counters Rumors With Video
.Political analyst Juan Carlos Zapata said the news of his absence would trigger "a frenetic struggle for power" within the ranks of Mr. Chávez' movement, and could lead to cracks, especially within the military. "I see a lot of uncertainty within the ranks, and the military asking what's going on, and who represents them," he said.

Already, the president's older brother Adan, the governor of the family's home state of Barinas, has been stirring the pot in recent days, suggesting that his brother's self-styled Bolivarian Revolution could use violence to hold on to power.

Venezuela's government says Mr. Chávez underwent surgery for a pelvic abscess on June 10 after complaining of abdominal pain during a meeting with retired dictator Fidel Castro.

On Wednesday, the government released a video, said to be taken Tuesday, of Mr. Chávez chatting with Mr. Castro. At one point, the two men are seen holding what appears to be a Tuesday edition of the Cuban daily newspaper Granma, apparently in an attempt to establish the date.

But few people believe official assurances that Mr. Chávez is recovering nicely, and question why he would need nearly three weeks in hospital due to an abscess, which is a pus-filled cavity caused by infection. They also note the strange silence from the loquacious Mr. Chávez, who has not been heard from publicly since a brief telephone call to state television on June 12.

Speculation in Caracas has focused on the possibility that Mr. Chávez has prostate cancer. Nelson Bocaranda, a prominent Venezuelan newspaper columnist, has reported that the cancer has spread to other organs and that the president is undergoing radiation therapy in Havana.

Prostate cancer, if treated promptly, has a low mortality rate, according to doctors. It becomes more deadly, however, if it spreads to other organs.

U.S. officials believe Mr. Chávez's poor health is more serious than what the Venezuelan government has led the public to believe. They are reluctant to make dire predictions, however. "Chávez has some serious health problems, but he could recover from them," a U.S. official said.

Any serious illness for Mr. Chávez, in power since 1999, will weaken his chances of winning next year's presidential election—even if he remains the odds-on favorite. The one-time coup plotter has already won three presidential votes and hopes to win another six-year term, allowing him to govern until 2018.

Wednesday afternoon in New York, Venezuela's sovereign bonds were up 1.26% in price terms on the J.P.Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global—a rally based on the idea that Mr. Chávez now has a greater chance of not being in power for the foreseeable future.

Many in Venezuela had given up hope of ever removing Mr. Chávez. The former army officer has carefully cultivated his image among his core supporters with equal parts folksy charm and populist bombast.

Still, despite high oil prices, the economy is weak, inflation is high and government debt is piling up fast. Meanwhile, crime is rampant and a creaking electricity grid is leading to regular blackouts. A normally divided opposition smells blood, and has pulled together.

Many expect things to pull apart within Chavismo—a broadly disparate movement where factions have been held in check by Mr. Chávez himself. "Chávez is the glue that holds everyone together," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

[hdk]

Esperemos que el cancer pueda resistir lo mas que pueda los ataques que sufra.

[admin]

El enganio Frances

Lo ultimo de Grecia no es mas que una evasion politica

Si es Jueves, significa que Europa esta con otro enganio para demorar la eventual caida de Grecia por su insolvencia. Esto viene como cortesia de Francia y no es sorpresa, esta diseniada a la medida de los bancos Franceses y Alemanaes. Desafortunadamente deja a Grecia en una situacion fiscal peor e aumenta el riesgo de los contribuyentes Europes y otros inversionistas tenedores de la deuda Griega.

La proporcion de la deuda Griega con respecto al GDP es del 155% y seguira subiendo a 170% para el proximo anio, lo que es una manera de decir que es un problema muy grande como para salir de el. Aun con la Union Europea y el fondo Monetario Internacional canalizando billones a Grecia y aunque los politicos Griegos corten el presupuesto en medio de una contraccion economica, las posibilidades de evitar el default no existen.

La mejor manera de hacer que Grecia se recupera es admitir que esta quebrada, reestructurar la deuda de manera que sea factible pagarla y dejar que el mercado castigue a Grecia por sus acciones, negandole capital a intereses razonables hasta que no hagan las reformas que necesitan.

El presidente Frances se opone a esta receta, en su lugar quiere que los tenedores de bonos Griegos pasen su deuda que madura entre el 2011 y 2014 a 30 anios.

Por supuesto, ni Francia ni Alemania pueden defender esta receta por que destruiria sus bancos. De los 285 billones de euros de bonos en deuda, Francia y Alemania poseen 28 billones. Eso es mucho mas de lo que tiene cualquier sistema bancario fuera de Grecia. Sin embargo un frite-down del 50% no destruiria la banca Francesa o Alemana. Por ejemplo BNP Paribas es el que mas deuda Griega tiene y si aceptan un write dpwn del 30%, sus utilidades solo bajarian un 3%.

El ECB y Francia temen el contagio a Portugal e Ireland que de ocurrir causarian grandes perdidas a la banca Espaniola y el gobierno de ese pais se veria forzado a recapitaliar a su banca.

Si eso lleva a la bancarrota a Madrid, grandes perdidas remecerian todo el sistema financiero Europeo. Los contribuyentes Franceses y Alemanes tendrian que recapitalizar sus bancos, lo cual no le sienta nada bien a Sarkozy que esta en la estacion de reeleccion.

Estas son preocupaciones razonables, pero muy lejanas de la realidad, pero se pueden contener si los lideres Europeos trabajan para controlar los acuerdos de deuda de Oreland, Espania y el resto. Tampoco esta claro como el aumentar el costo de la deuda de Grecia alivia el problema. En su lugar este acuerdo parece ser una oferta politica. Alemania y Netherlands estan insistiendo que los inversionistas privados deben cargar con parte de la deuda. Con su propuesta, Francia puede decir que ha incluido a los inversionistas privados en lo que el llama una solucion.

Pero alguien nos podra decir como los acreedores estan tambien sufriendo el dolor cuando ellos toman la mitad de sus inversiones y duplican sus ganancias en la otra mitad?


The French Deception
Europe's latest Greek debt scheme is one more political evasion.

If it's Thursday it must mean that Europe is out with another scheme to delay its eventual reckoning with Greek insolvency. This one comes courtesy of France and is, no surprise, tailor-made to help French and German banks. Unfortunately it leaves Greece in a worse fiscal position and increases risk to European taxpayers and other investors in Greek debt.

The ratio of Greek debt to GDP is now 155% and is slated to peak at 170% next year, which is another way of saying that this is too big a problem to grow out of. Even with the European Union and International Monetary Fund plowing billions into Greek coffers and Greek politicians cutting budgets in the midst of a sharp economic contraction, the prospects for avoiding default are slim to none.

Columbia professor Charles Calomiris has a plan to resolve failing governments.
.The best path to recovery for Greece and the EU would be to recognize that Athens is broke, to restructure the debt to levels that Greece can realistically pay, and then let markets punish Greek profligacy by denying the government access to capital at good rates until it accomplishes the necessary reforms.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is resisting this path—for reasons that we will get to in a minute. Instead he wants to offer bond holders the chance to voluntarily roll debt maturing between 2011 and 2014 into 30-year paper. Under the only scenario that investors are likely to accept, a little more than half of the face-value of a €100 bond would be redeemed for cash and a triple-A, sovereign, zero-coupon bond. The rest (€49) would be reinvested in a 30-year Greek bond with a coupon that is higher than what they now receive and is tied to GDP growth. As an example, new bonds would pay an average effective interest rate of 10% if Greece grows at 2% a year.

Creditors who accept the plan will instantly reduce their exposure to Greece by more than 50% and almost double their return even with very low growth rates. (What's French for "a gimme"?) Yet neither Greeks, nor European taxpayers nor other bond holders will fare so well.

Let's start with what happens to Greece: It gets more debt. Because the new bonds will replace bonds with an interest rate of 4.5%-5% annually, the cost of servicing the new debt will double. This interest rate differential means that over the 30-year life of the new bonds, the burden of this debt doubles. Trying to understand why the EU would want to take an unsustainable debt burden and make it worse is, well, Greek to us. This week's riots and yesterday's narrow victory in Athens for another austerity package shows where this will lead.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy during a summit of the EU heads of State in Brussels last week.
.But Greeks are not the only losers. The bond holders of other maturities will also suffer because the probability that Greece will eventually default will go up, as will the odds of a lower recovery value on the bonds. Meanwhile, European taxpayers, along with the IMF, will be asked to continue shoveling money into Greece, on the premise that it can dig itself out of a hopelessly deep hole.

Neither France nor Germany can defend this plan on grounds that a Greek default would destroy their banks. Of the €285 billion total bonds outstanding, French and German banks are estimated to hold a combined €28 billion. That's the most of any banking system outside of Greece. Still, even a 50% write-down would not destroy these banks. BNP Paribas is the largest private holder of Greek debt outside of Greece, and in May CEO Baudouin Prot said that a 30% write-down of its Greek holdings would reduce its earnings per share by only 3%.

So why not let Greece fail so it can recover faster? One answer lies in the French and European Central Bank conviction that a Greek restructuring would drive contagion. Portugal and Ireland will next ask to give their creditors haircuts, the theory goes, causing large losses for Spanish banks that will have to be recapitalized by the Spanish government.

If that bankrupts Madrid, huge losses will ripple across the European financial system. Then French and German taxpayers might have to recapitalize their banks—an unhappy prospect for Mr. Sarkozy with elections in the offing.

These are reasonable concerns but far from certain, and they are containable if European leaders had the wit and will to work out loss-sharing debt accords for Ireland, Spain and the rest. It also isn't clear how raising the cost of Greek debt alleviates the problem. Instead, this proposal appears to be a political bargain. Germany and the Netherlands have been insisting that private creditors shoulder some of the burden. With its proposal, France can say it has included private creditors toward what it calls a solution.

But perhaps someone can tell us how creditors are sharing any pain when they take out half of their investment and double their return on the remainder?

[admin]

Wow! segun el WSJ lo de Grecia es un negocio redondo para algunos, van a duplicar su inversion.

[Victor VE]

Esperemos que el cancer pueda resistir lo mas que pueda los ataques que sufra.

Lo iba a publicar en twitter, pero me iban a dar con palo luego. No hay q jugarse con eso, hierba mal nunca muere.

[admin]

+10

El Asia al alza.

El Hang Seng +1.60%

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 0/32 0.462
10-Year Note 4/32 3.095
* at close

6:54 a.m. EDT 06/30/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.61 -0.16 94.77
Gold 1510.6 0.2 1510.4
DJ Industrials 12240 22 12218
S&P 500 1305.60 1.30 1304.30

7:04 a.m. EDT 06/30/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.44 80.77
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4471 1.4434
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper June 30,07:19
Bid/Ask 4.2359 - 4.2369
Change +0.0242 +0.57%
Low/High 4.1960 - 4.2539
Charts

Nickel June 30,07:19
Bid/Ask 10.5153 - 10.5217
Change +0.1066 +1.02%
Low/High 10.3294 - 10.5552
Charts

Aluminum June 30,07:19
Bid/Ask 1.1292 - 1.1295
Change +0.0046 +0.41%
Low/High 1.1227 - 1.1350
Charts

Zinc June 30,07:19
Bid/Ask 1.0426 - 1.0429
Change +0.0113 +1.10%
Low/High 1.0239 - 1.0446
Charts

Lead June 30,07:19
Bid/Ask 1.1957 - 1.1962
Change +0.0113 +0.96%
Low/High 1.1767 - 1.1979