Martes 05/07/11 Ordenes de fabricas

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Eventos economicos

Martes

Ordenes de fabricas
Subasta de bonos

Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

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Esperemos que esta noticia no resienta al mercado americano el Martes.

S&P pone un nuevo obstáculo en el camino de Grecia

Por MARTIN VAUGHAN
SINGAPUR (EFE Dow Jones)--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services anunció el lunes que la propuesta realizada para flexibilizar los términos de devolución de la deuda soberana griega equivaldría a una cesación de pagos, de acuerdo con los criterios de la agencia de calificación.

Sin embargo, S&P no modificó la calificación de Grecia, que se mantiene en CCC desde la rebaja del 13 de junio. El comentario de la agencia analizó la propuesta de la Federación Bancaria Francesa que ha encontrado apoyo entre los ministros de Economía como una vía para ayudar a Grecia a ordenar sus finanzas.

La propuesta de la FBF incluye dos opciones para ampliar el vencimiento de la deuda griega. "En resumen, nuestra visión es que cada una de las dos opciones de financiación descritas en la propuesta de la FBF podría llevar a un impago según nuestro criterio", dijo S&P en un comunicado.

La agencia no considera ninguna de las opciones como un estricto "canje" de deuda, aunque ambos podrían considerarse como una "reestructuración similar".

"Esto es porque creemos, en base a los recientes comunicados de las autoridades de la eurozona, que el objetivo de las opciones de financiación es reducir el riesgo de un impago de la deuda a corto plazo o una reestructuración de la deuda con recortes y dar al Gobierno griego más tiempo para acometer su consolidación fiscal y reformas políticas", añadió.

S&P dijo también que cree que las dos propuestas podrían representar la venta de deuda "problemática" y que ambas devolverían menos valor a los inversores de bonos que con los términos originales de sus inversiones.

El euro cayó tras la noticia hasta US$1,4515 desde $1,4553.

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Euro down 1.4510, yen down 81.04

Korea +0.21%. el Hang Seng +0.05%, el Nikkei +0.12%, el Hang Seng -0.06%, Australia +0.04%

Los futures del Dow Jones 27 puntos al alza.

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Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 95.08 0.14 94.94
Gold 1497.9 15.3 1482.6
DJ Industrials 12546 32 12345
S&P 500 1335.50 0.70 1315.50

8:59 p.m. EDT 07/04/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.84 80.79
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4526 1.4539
† Late Monday in New York.

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Copper July 04,21:19
Bid/Ask 4.2719 - 4.2750
Change -0.0075 -0.17%
Low/High 4.2701 - 4.2841
Charts

Nickel July 04,20:00
Bid/Ask 10.4803 - 10.5097
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 10.4803 - 10.5097
Charts

Aluminum July 04,21:11
Bid/Ask 1.1148 - 1.1172
Change -0.0029 -0.26%
Low/High 1.1141 - 1.1199
Charts

Zinc July 04,21:19
Bid/Ask 1.0652 - 1.0662
Change -0.0061 -0.57%
Low/High 1.0650 - 1.0722
Charts

Lead July 04,21:19
Bid/Ask 1.1984 - 1.2060
Change -0.0084 -0.69%
Low/High 1.1952 - 1.2082

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Advertencia S&P siembra más incertidumbre por Grecia
lunes 4 de julio de 2011 08:38 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+]
1 de 1Tamaño CompletoPor Angeliki Koutantou y George Georgiopoulos
ATENAS (Reuters) - La agencia de calificación crediticia Standard & Poor's generó más incertidumbre el lunes sobre los esfuerzos de la zona euro para rescatar a la endeudada Grecia al advertir que consideraría una cesación de pagos un plan bancario francés para una reprogramación de la deuda helena.

La amenaza terminó abruptamente con una escalada de alivio de los mercados de acciones y bonos luego de que Grecia aprobara un nuevo y más severo plan de austeridad la semana pasada, que llevó a los ministros de Finanzas de la zona euro a aceptar darle a Atenas un nuevo préstamo de corto plazo de 12.000 millones de euros.

Las acciones bancarias caían en Europa y el costo de asegurar la deuda griega contra la moratoria retomaban una inexorable alza solo interrumpida brevemente la semana pasada, cuando el Parlamento griego aprobó una nueva ola de recortes de gasto, alzas tributarias y ventas de activos estatales.

Los inversionistas temen que un "default" de Grecia, que ha sido escenario de violentas protestas contra el plan de austeridad, genere repercusiones en todo el sistema financiero mundial con algunos analistas que dicen que esto tendería un manto de duda sobre toda la zona euro.

S&P advirtió el lunes que Grecia posiblemente entrará en suspensión de pagos si sigue con el plan de reprogramación de deuda impulsado por los bancos franceses, hundiendo el dedo en la llaga de un rescate que un alto responsable europeo ha dicho que le costará a Atenas empleos y soberanía.

Políticos y banqueros europeos expresaron la semana pasada su confianza en que la propuesta francesa no desencadenaría una moratoria, pero S&P dijo que entrañaría pérdidas para los titulares de bonos y muy probablemente propiciaría una calificación de "default selectivo".

"Nuestra opinión es que cada una de las dos opciones de financiamiento descritas en la propuesta (de los bancos franceses) probablemente representaría una cesación de pagos según nuestros criterios", dijo S&P.

Los países acreedores del norte de Europa, encabezados por Alemania, insisten en que los bancos y las aseguradoras deben compartir la carga de un apoyo financiero adicional para Grecia, que se estima que necesita unos 120.000 millones de euros en nuevos créditos hasta fines del 2014.

Los bancos galos, principales tenedores de deuda soberana griega, propusieron una renovación voluntaria de algunos de los bonos al momento de su vencimiento, pero según distintas condiciones.
Muchos inversionistas y economistas creen que Grecia tendrá que reestructurar su deuda en el mediano plazo y los rescates solo están ganando tiempo y trasladando el eventual costo desde los bancos a los contribuyentes.

"El alivio que hemos tenido la semana pasada con las votaciones ahora pasa a segundo plano con esta noticia (de S&P)", dijo Marc Oswald, estratega de Monument Securities. "Sería bueno tener algunos detalles más sobre eso", agregó.

S&P, que ha sido la agencia calificadora más dura con Grecia, recortó el mes pasado la nota soberana del país heleno a "CCC" desde "B" al considerar que cualquier reestructuración de la ingente deuda del país se consideraría efectivamente una suspensión de pagos.

Sin embargo, Fitch Ratings ha dado señales de que podría no ser tan severa y podría no degradar a Grecia a categoría "default" tras un periodo de transacción, dejando al Banco Central Europeo una posibilidad de aceptar los bonos como colaterales en las operaciones de refinanciamiento.

El euro cayó desde el entorno de los 1,4550 dólares a un mínimo de sesión de 1,4510 dólares tras los comentarios de la agencia.

(1 dlr = 0,705 euros)

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Mina Collahuasi Chile bajo plan continencia por clima
lunes 4 de julio de 2011 19:39 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Collahuasi, el tercer mayor yacimiento de cobre del mundo, operaba el lunes bajo un plan de contingencia a raíz de un frente de mal tiempo en la zona norte de Chile, dijo una representante de la firma.
Collahuasi, que produce alrededor del 3,3 por ciento del cobre que se extrae en el mundo, o 535.000 toneladas anuales, se ubica en la cordillera de Los Andes y en el extremo norte de Chile, zona que fue afectada por inusuales y adversas condiciones meteorológicas el lunes.

"Se está operando bajo plan de contingencia debido a las condiciones climáticas", informó a Reuters Bernardita Fernández, portavoz de Collahuasi.

La portavoz no entregó detalles sobre si la producción será afectada.

El yacimiento es controlado por las mineras globales Xstrata y Anglo American.

El sindicato de la minera dijo en un informe sus miembros que las subidas y bajadas de los trabajadores fueron suspendidas ante el frente de mal tiempo.

"Hoy 04 de julio se han suspendido las subidas y bajadas a faena por un frente de mal tiempo (nieve, lluvias y viento)", dijo el sindicato en su sitio de internet.

Hace dos semanas, Collahuasi fue afectada por un corte de energía en el norte del país, que la obligó a utilizar generadores de emergencia para mantener sus operaciones clave.

(Corresponsalía de Santiago, con reporte adicional de Alonso Soto. Editado por Mónica Vargas)

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Aldo Mariátegui:
"Siomi-Perú "
La columna del directorLima - - Es una pena. Había un "rush", una fiebre afuera y adentro por invertir en el Perú, el país se había puesto de moda entre los inversionistas extranjeros, con una imagen y una confianza que habían costado muchos años forjar. Con Ollanta eso definitivamente se acabó. Por lo menos se va a tardar 2 años recomponer eso y sólo si no la embarran. Además, ya se imaginarán la confianza que el elector peruano despierta en los inversionistas del extranjero. Esta elección los ha dejado convencidos de que éste es un país muy tercermundista y que sólo aparentaba haber madurado y mejorado, un lugar muy caprichoso e inestable, donde hasta el mono del Parque de las Leyendas podría salir elegido. ¿Meter su plata en un sitio así?


- Recuerdo de niño cómo Velasco llenó al país de empresas estatales, a las que a menudo les ponía "Perú" como sufijo (AeroPerú, Minero Perú, Hierro Perú, ElectroPerú, PetroPerú, etc.). Cual cáncer maldito, toda estas empresas le significaron miles de millones de pérdidas anuales a todos los peruanos, eran nidos de ladrones, andaban sobrecargadas de personal (porque se nombraba al amigo y al partidario político) y daban unos servicios pésimos por su colosal ineficiencia. Eso sucede cuando el dinero es de todos y de nadie a la vez, cuando no hay un dueño que responda, cuando el gerente y el directorio saben que van a estar sólo un tiempito y tienen que "aprovechar". Tras años de sangría, por fin se entendió lo nocivas que eran y la mayor parte de estas empresas se privatizaron en los 90. Lamentablemente, Fujimori borró durante su segundo gobierno con la mano izquierda lo que había hecho de bueno con la derecha y paralizó –con la venia de su pésimo ministro González Izquierdo, ese que ahora se atreve a dar lecciones de economía- las privatizaciones, lo que significó que aún perduren monstruosas ineptitudes como Petroperú, Sedapal, ElectroPerú y Enapu, entre otras.


Pero como el hombre es el único ser estúpido que se tropieza 2 veces con la misma piedra, ayer Siomi Lerner, que es quien corta el jamón en el humalismo, ya anunció que van a intentar cambiar la Constitución de 1993 para eliminar el concepto de subsidiariedad (algo tonto, porque por ley pueden normar casos específicos) y así tener la cancha libre para que vuelva el estatismo, con los argumentos de que son "empresas estratégicas", que Chile tiene Codelco y Brasil Petrobras, que los recursos naturales debe explotarlos el Estado y sandeces por el estilo.


No bastó que hayamos vivido el desastre de los 80 para que insistan en tal despropósito. No basta con que los "petroaudios" nos hayan demostrado qué fácil es que la corrupción vuelva a Petroperú. No, hay que insistir en pegarnos de cabezazos en la pared. ¿O Siomi quiere otra cosa?

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Investigaciones acerca del cerebro y el reto del envejecimiento

Hoy dia, mas de 5 millones de Americanos sufren de Alzheimers y casi 1.5 millones tienen la posibilidad de desarollar la enfermedad de Parkinson. Es raro ver Alzheimers antes de los 60 anios, pero 1 de cada 20 a los 70 anios lo padece y 1 de cada 3 a los 85 anios.

Es decir que si se escapa el cancer, el ataque al corazon o el derrame cerebral, tiene el 35% de posibilidad de contraer Alzheimers. La mitad de los que estan en una casa de ancianos padece de Alzheimers, la otra mitad esta ocupada por ancianos con problemas cogniticos. En 40 anios, el costo de cuidar a los 14 millones de pacientes de Alzheimers excedera $1 trillon al anio.

Ninguna de las medicinas actuales curan esas enfermedades. El presupuesto de investigacion de estas enfermedades es minusculo.

Se necesita desarrollar nuevos terapeuticos de los avances recientes en la ciencia y expandir el conocimiento de como el cerebro funiona y por que deja de hacerlo y comienza a fallar. Sin embargo el presupuestos para estas dos enfermedades es menos del 2% del National Institutes of Health.

Los politicos tienen que usar su cerebro y pensar. Si no lo hacen, su cerebro un dia decidira dejarlos antes de que ellos lo dejen.

Dr. Prusiner, director of the Institute for Neurodegenerative Diseases at University of California, San Francisco, was the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1997. Mr. Shultz, former U.S. secretary of state, is a distinguished fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.



Brain Research and the Challenge of Aging
The study of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's consumes less than 2% of the National Institute of Health budget

By STANLEY B. PRUSINER
AND GEORGE P. SHULTZ
The human brain has produced truly remarkable advances in medical science, creating new medical devices, pharmaceutical products, and diagnostic and surgical procedures that enable us to enjoy longer, healthier lives. Consider, just as examples, the Salk vaccine, which has virtually eliminated polio; and the MRI, which makes it possible to do internal examinations noninvasively.

But this very success—living longer—demands that we urgently address diseases of the brain that often accompany aging. Three out of five Americans will suffer from a nervous-system disease at some time in their lives. These illnesses are often chronic and debilitating. The list of these ailments is long—Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease being among the most widely known—and there are no cures for many of them. For Alzheimer's and Parkinson's there are medicines that diminish the symptoms, but these drugs do not halt or even slow the underlying degenerative processes.

Clearly, greater investment in researching diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's is needed. With healthy brains, Americans will do more than just live longer, they will remain productive longer and contribute to the well-being of our nation instead of adding substantially to the costs and other burdens of health care.

We now know that some of the same brain problems linked to aging underlie the delayed effects of traumatic brain injuries being seen in our wounded warriors coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as in boxers and hockey and football players.

Today, over five million Americans suffer from Alzheimer's and nearly one and a half million from Parkinson's. Alzheimer's disease is rare before age 60 but afflicts about one in 20 by age 70 and one in three by age 85. Even a modest increase in life expectancy over the next 40 years will nearly triple the number of people in the U.S. with Alzheimer's, and that means huge expenditures for their care.

So if you escape cancer, heart disease and stroke and live to 85, you have a 35% chance of developing Alzheimer's. Those are terrible odds. Currently, patients with Alzheimer's occupy half of all nursing home beds in the country; cognitively impaired people occupy half of the remaining beds. The majority of people suffering from cognitive impairment will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease. In 40 years, the cost of caring for 14 million Alzheimer's victims will likely exceed $1 trillion annually.

Despite the world-wide market for medications that prevent or halt both Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, no such drugs exist. In large part, this is traceable to the diminutive spending on research on these and other neurodegenerative diseases. Ironically, as dementia in older people has grown more common, it's come to be thought of as an inevitable consequence of aging, even though the majority of elderly people aged 80 to 100 have well-preserved memories and intellect.

Remarkable discoveries in the neurosciences over the past three decades demand exploitation. We need to develop new therapeutics from recent scientific advances and to expand our knowledge of how the brain both functions and fails. Nevertheless, research on Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases consumes less than 2% of the entire National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget. Large dividends will likely flow if Congress and the president enhance the allocation of NIH funds to studies of the brain.

The budget is now in the limelight, and federal funds for biomedical research are reportedly on the chopping block. A thorough look at priorities is essential. The bottom line is that biomedical research can change the history of mankind, resulting in a healthier America that derives large savings from preventive medicine and from the use of innovative and less costly means to treat diseases.

So, lawmakers, as funding priorities are set, think. Use your brain. If you don't, your brain may leave you before you leave it.

Dr. Prusiner, director of the Institute for Neurodegenerative Diseases at University of California, San Francisco, was the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1997. Mr. Shultz, former U.S. secretary of state, is a distinguished fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

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Cuatro paises europeos rinden homenaje a Ronald Reagan en las celebraciones de su cumpleanios numero 100

Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic e Inglaterra conmemoran el esfuerzo de Ronald Reagan de preservar la libertad alrededor del mundo.

Europe Fetes Reagan
As part of the centennial festivities, four European nations are honoring Reagan's efforts to preserve freedom across the globe

By KATHLEEN MCCAFFREY
It's sometimes overlooked that Ronald Reagan's influence on Europe was comparable to his place in the American political sphere. So it's worth noting that the Reagan Centennial, a two-year-long celebration commemorating the 100th birthday of our 40th president, is giving the Gipper his international due.

As part of the festivities this year, four European nations are honoring Reagan's efforts to preserve freedom across the globe. Earlier this week in Poland, the Cardinal of Krakow said a special mass in recognition of the relationship shared by Reagan and Pope John Paul II. Two days later in Hungary, where a Ronald Reagan Memorial Committee was set up, there was a public unveiling of a statue of Reagan in Freedom Square, which overlooks the last Soviet monument in Budapest.

This month, the Czech Republic will host a conference exploring how Reagan might have responded to the current domestic and foreign affairs issues in central Europe. Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will be the keynote speaker.

Finally, the week of July 4th will mark a celebration in London commemorating the friendship between Reagan and Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. On U.S. Independence Day there will be a statue of President Reagan unveiled in Grosvenor Square, near the likeness of another fondly remembered president, Dwight Eisenhower. The presentation will be followed by a dinner held at The Guildhall, where Reagan was received after his historic visit to the Soviet Union in 1988.

Of course, there are some in Europe who have trouble paying tribute to the Great Communicator. In Berlin, where Reagan made his famous plea for Mikhail Gorbachev to tear down the divisive Berlin wall, Germans are debating whether to name a street in the city after the president. Though Reagan was named an honorary resident of Berlin in 1992, the local Leftist party has been accused of blocking every effort to honor the man who fought for them to live freely.

To read more stories like this one, please subscribe to Political Diary.

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Por primera vez en decadas US esta perdiendo, no atrayendo capital.

America's Troubling Investment Gap
For the first time in decades, America is on net losing, not attracting, growth capital

By David Malpass And Stephen Moore
In June, President Obama celebrated a rare sliver of good economic news: Foreign investment was up 49% last year over 2009. The president says that this boost in capital shipped to the U.S. by international companies or foreign investors leads to more businesses and higher-paying jobs here at home. He's right.

But this isn't the economic success story that the White House is spinning. The real truth of the recession and limping recovery is that for the first time in decades America is, on net, losing, not attracting, growth capital. That may be the single most important explanation for persistently high unemployment and stagnant wages.

It is true that foreign direct investment rose to $236 billion in 2010 from $159 billion in 2009. But that was still well below the $310 billion invested in 2008. The White House also neglected to disclose that in the first quarter of 2011 foreign investment fell by 51% from the first quarter of last year, according to data released last month from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Foreigners of late have not found the U.S. to be a receptive, high-return home for investment.

Much more worrisome is that Americans are taking their investment dollars abroad at a faster pace than foreigners are bringing capital to these shores. In 2010, for example, U.S. investment abroad was $351 billion—$115 billion higher than foreign investment here. Economic recoveries are periods when investment capital usually surges into a country, but since this weakling rebound began in the middle of 2009 the U.S. has lost more than $200 billion in investment capital. That is the equivalent of about two million jobs that don't exist on these shores and are now located in places like China, Germany and India.

This is a recent and dramatic reversal of fortune. Huge net inflows of productive capital into the U.S. in the 1980s and '90s helped finance the 25-year boom in jobs and broad-based prosperity from 1982-2007. Over that period, foreigners invested just over $6 trillion more in the U.S. (in total capital) than Americans invested abroad, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with most of it going into businesses.

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Laughing Stock/Corbis
.That tidal wave of funds provided the capital to finance new American companies, while increasing the value of other assets, such as real estate. It also underwrote new factories owned by foreign companies like Honda. All of this investment contributed mightily to the 35 million new jobs in the 1980s and '90s. By 2008, the average job created with foreign investment paid $71,000 a year, about 30% above the U.S. average, according to a report issued in June by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, "U.S. Inbound Foreign Direct Investment."

So why did the investors put their money in the U.S. in those years? We'd say it was a combination of low tax rates, a strong dollar, low inflation and other free-market reforms. Capital flows to where it is most highly rewarded, and low marginal tax rates on the returns to capital and business income create a gravitational pull on global funds. A strong and stable currency allows businesses to invest in innovation, employees and productivity rather than inflation hedges. It also encourages investors to wait longer to cash in their profits without worrying about the losses of a depreciating dollar. In the high-tax, high-inflation 1970s, the U.S. was a net exporter of risk-taking capital. As we are now.

That's only part of the story behind the disappointing recovery we now face. To be sure, foreigners still park a huge amount of money in this country, but in the last several years they've shifted their investment toward U.S. Treasury securities and government-guaranteed bonds, and away from the private-sector staples—corporate bonds, intellectual property, ownership of businesses—that create sustainable jobs. Since 2009, foreigners have invested just over $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Some economists argue that investing in low-interest-rate government bonds works fine for America because it allows the government to boost spending on programs—the latest doozies are windmills, high-speed rail and 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. The low interest rates, this argument goes, prove there is no negative "crowding out" from America's near $1.5 trillion deficit.

That misses the point. To produce rapid growth, most capital must be allocated by markets. The effect of $4.5 trillion of borrowing since 2009 is that foreigners and Americans are buying Treasury bills instead of investing in the next Google, Oracle, Wal-Mart or biomedical company. Today, foreigners are financing food stamps and the next bridge to nowhere while Americans are building state-of-the-art production systems abroad. This is the real pernicious "crowding out effect" of the federal government's borrowing.

The free flow of capital across borders is unquestionably a positive sum game for everyone—in the same way free trade is—but the U.S. can only retain its status as a high-wage dynamic economy if we are enticing capital for new operations to these shores. The U.S. is still by far the world leader in the cumulative stock of foreign investment, which now stands at some $3.3 trillion. But the composition of that investment is tilting toward government securities.

Meanwhile, the best related measure of our competitiveness as a nation—the balance of foreign direct investment into the U.S. versus the investment capital going abroad—is a red flag.

Mr. Malpass is president of Encima Global. Mr. Moore is senior economics writer for the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

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Moody's advierte a la banca Griega

Moody's le dijo a la banca Griega que deben considerar los cargos y gastos en la deuda original, bonos sin pagar, etc. Moody's no dijo que esto terminaria en un default.

Por su parte Standard & Poor's Corp. dijo el Lunes que la propuesta promovida por la banca Francesa pondria al pais en un selectivo default.



Moody's Gives Banks Greek Debt Warning

By MARGOT PATRICK
LONDON—Banks rolling over some of their Greek debt into new instruments may have to take impairment charges on the original, unpaid bonds, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday, though the ratings agency still hasn't explicitly said the plan would result in a default.

Rival agency Standard & Poor's Corp. on Monday rocked efforts to involve the private sector in giving Greece more time to work out its fiscal problems by saying a proposal being promoted by French banks would likely put the country in "selective default."

S&P: Greek Plan Opens Door to Default
The ratings agencies' reaction to the French proposal is being regarded as a crucial element in whether it will proceed or not, because euro-zone and European Central Bank officials have repeatedly said they want a deal that doesn't result in Greece getting a default rating. It could also affect the ECB's willingness to accept Greek bonds as collateral, which has been vital to keep the Greek banking sector functioning during the crisis. The Financial Times Tuesday reported that the ECB would continue to accept the debt as collateral for loans unless all the major credit ratings agencies declared Greece in default, citing an unnamed senior finance official.

Moody's in a note dated Monday and emailed early Tuesday said the French plan, which involves allowing banks to roll over debt maturing up to June 2014 into new five- or 30-year securities, could mean immediate charges against debt held on bank balance sheets as "available for sale," and that bonds "held to maturity" on banks' books could also be subject to impairment charges. Moody's said the ultimate treatment of the bonds would depend on how banks and their auditors interpret international accounting rules.

Moody's so far hasn't weighed in directly on the default issue, though analysts say the agency's default criteria make it pretty clear it would count as such. In a note last week, Moody's said a sovereign "distressed exchange" involving new debt amounting to a smaller financial obligation, or a forced change in debt maturies, would constitute a default, even if it were voluntary.

"If an investor receives anything less than the full market value promised under the bond's contractual terms at each designated coupon payment date or at a principal maturity date, or adequate financial compensation for any variation in terms, it is most likely a default under our definition," Moody's said.

In short, to avoid a default under Moody's criteria, investors would have to voluntarily participate in the exchange; Greece would still have to be capable of making its debt service payments; and the terms of the new transaction would have to be attractive on their own merit.

"Given that criteria I can't see any way in the sweet world that Moody's can say anything other than 'default.' So they probably won't," credit analyst Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities said Tuesday.

"Moody's is not a party to ongoing discussions on the Greek debt roll-over. Once the authorities finalize their decision, any rating implications will be assessed through our published methodologies and definitions," Moody's said in a statement Tuesday.

—Mark Brown contributed to this article.

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Una bomba mato a 35 e hirio a 28 en Irak, la violencia esta resurgiendo en ese pais. Las tropas americanas estan programadas a salir del pais a fin de anio.

Lo mas probable es que Iran sea el promotor de la violencia y desestabilizacion en ese pais.

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El sector privado se desacelero en Europa

El sector privado desacelero notablemente en Italia y Espania en el mes de Junio llevando a estos dos paises a la recesion nuevamente, sin embargo el BCE se prepara para subir los intereses el Jueves.

El PMI en la zona euro cayo a 53.3 en Junio de 55.8 en Mayo. El sector privado se desacelero bastante en Francia y Alemania tambien. En Espania e Italia el PMI fue debajo de 50.

Euro-Zone Private-Sector Growth Slows

By ALEX BRITTAIN And PAUL HANNON
LONDON—Activity in the euro zone's private sector slowed sharply in June as Italy and Spain slipped back into contraction, suggesting the economy is sputtering even as the European Central Bank prepares to raise interest rates again Thursday.

The composite purchasing managers' Index, which measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the 17-nation currency bloc, fell to 53.3 from 55.8 in May, Markit Economics said Tuesday.

The reading was still above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion, but growth slowed more sharply than at any time since November 2008, just after the financial crisis went global with the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers.

Private-sector activity in Germany and France slowed markedly. Italy and Spain both posted a sub-50 reading, a concern because the two countries are struggling to avoid the fate of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, all casualties of the euro-zone debt crisis.

Silvio Peruzzo, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the weakness in Italy and other heavily indebted euro-zone countries is more worrisome than the loss in momentum in "core" nations like Germany, where a slowdown had been expected after a vigorous first quarter.

"It's too premature to jump on the idea that the slowdown can translate into a much more worrisome situation like a double dip [recession]," Mr. Peruzzo said.

The figures for April, May and June together suggest the euro-zone economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter, down from quarterly growth of 0.8% in the first three months, Markit economist Chris Williamson said.

Currency markets shrugged off the figures, which largely confirmed a slowdown already reported in the preliminary figures in June. Tuesday's final data, though, were even weaker, fleshing out the picture of a flagging economy.

New business, a good pointer of future activity, rose at the slowest pace since November 2009. Among the weakest components of activity overall was Italy's services sector—including banks, hotels and transport companies—which contracted in June, posting a reading of 47.4.

Job creation also slowed, with employment rising at its weakest rate in eight months. Jobs were lost in Italy, Spain and Ireland.

But the PMI survey showed cost pressures easing. Input prices—the cost of goods used by companies—rose at their slowest rate in eight months. Prices charged to consumers grew at the slowest rate in four months.

The ECB is widely expected to raise its key interest rate again Thursday to 1.5% from 1.25% in a bid to contain inflation, which held steady at an annual 2.7% in June, well above the bank's target of just under 2%.

Some economists question the need for a rate increase when countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece are struggling with high unemployment and heavy debt loads, and growth in the region as a whole appears to be slowing.

But ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet last week cemented expectations of a rate increase when he reiterated the bank is in "strong vigilance" mode regarding inflation—a key phrase that investors take to mean policy will be tightened at the next meeting.

The central bank raised its key interest rate to 1.25% from 1% in April, its first tightening since the financial crisis.

Separate data Tuesday showed retail sales across the euro zone fell sharply in May.

The European Union's official statistics agency, Eurostat, said the volume of retail sales in the euro zone fell by 1.1% from April, the largest month-to-month fall since April 2010. Compared with May 2010, sales volumes were down 1.9%, the largest year-to-year drop since November 2009.

The decline in sales was larger than expected, since economists surveyed by Dow Jones last week had expected a fall of 0.8% month-to-month and 0.3% on a year-to-year basis.

Adding to the weaker-than-expected tone, Eurostat revised down its estimates for sales in April, and now calculates volumes rose by 0.7% month-to-month and 0.8% in annual terms, having previously estimated they rose by 0.9% on the month and 1,1% on the year.

The sharp decline in sales likely reflects a squeeze on real incomes as the rise in consumer prices outpaces the rise in wages, while still-high levels of unemployment have made consumers wary of spending too freely.

The May decline may also reflect the impact of the ECB's decision to raise its key interest rate from 1% to 1.25% in April.

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