Los crecientes costos del ObamaCare
Los votantes entenderan todos muy bien acerca de los costos escondidos de la ley de salud para Noviembre
El gobierno dijo que una vez que pasara la ley los Americanos iban a cambiar a favor del plan cuando se dieran cuenta de los beneficios que recibirian con el ObamaCare. Lo contrario ha ocurrido. El sondeo de opinion de Rasmussen reporto la semana pasada que despues de haber sido aprobado el plan de salud en Marzo el 55% de los Americanos apoyaban la abolicion de la ley mientras el 42% no la apoyaban, hace un mes el resultado ha empeorado ahora el 56% dice que apoya la abolicion de la ley y el 39% dice que no.
Consideren el analisis hecho el 22 de Abril del actuary de Medicare Richard Foster, simplemente desmiente muchas de las cosas dichas pro el presidente.
Para empezar, Mr. Foster estima que los Americanos pagaran $120 billones en multas por no tener el seguro de salud y 14 millones de personas perderan su seguro de salud debido al alza de los costos y a el hecho que simplemente las companias no podran pagarlo. Esto no es exactamente lo que Obama prometio, el presidente dijo que si a uno le gustaba su seguro de salud podria quedarse con el. Mentira.
Mr. Foster encontro que los costos del seguro de salud seria muy dificil de cubrir y los doctores rehusarian recibir nuevos pacientes y uno de cada seis hospitales y hogares de ancianos podrian comenzar a operar a perdida. Y mientras Medicaid aseguraria a 16 millones de personas, la realidad es que no hay suficientes medicos para tratarlos.
Debido a los nuevos impuestos que Obama cobrara, Mr. Foster dice que la gente enferma que enfrentara precios mas altos en medicinas y otros servicios y todos en general pagaran seguros mas caros, de nuevo exactamente lo contrario de lo que prometio Obama. Otra mentira.
En Mayo, el Congressional Budget Office actualizo los precios de sus proyecciones. Encontro que la nueva ley de salud costara $115 billones mas de lo que se habia estimado inicialmente.
Este no es el final de las malas noticias. En Octubre se vera la primera ronda de recortes de servicios de Medicare. Hasta el 50% de los retirados perderan su seguro Medicare Advantage (este es un programa que le permite a los jubilados recibir servicios adicionales a travez de un seguro privado) o por lo menos alguno de sus beneficios actuales. Prestar atencion a como el gobierno tratara de forzar a las empresas a no notificar a los pacientes de los recortes hasta despues de las elecciones de Noviembre (elecciones) Mientras tanto el Dailly Caller website reporto ayer que la administracion Obama ha pasado las fechas estipuladas por la ley y no tiene un tiempo limite para implementar otras regulaciones requeridas.
Mientras tanto las companias de medicinas y productos medicos estan haciendo provisiones para los impuestos mas altos que empiezan el proximo anio. Esto significa menos inversiones en plantas y equipo y presupuestos de investigacion y desarrollo mas pequenios. Ademas de despidos masivos en el sector farmaceutico.
Todo esto representa un reto politico que la administracion y el partido democrata tendra que confrontar este otonio. Los doctores, enfermeras y trabajadores de los hospitales seran impactados negativamente hablaran con mas frecuencia a mas personas y con mas pasion y credibilidad que el presidente y sus aliados. Muy pronto millones de Americanos que trabajan para las companias de seguros, para las farmaceuticas, para los que producen productos medicos y otros relacionados al sector salud tambien estaran hablando del tema.
Y tambien estan los empleadores y sus trabajadores. De acuerdo a un sondeo el 88% de las companias planean pasar el alza del seguro de salud a sus empleados, el 74% piensa reducir los beneficios y el 12% simplemente ya no dara seguro de salud a sus empleados. Los retirados tambien seran afectados: el 43% de las empresas dicen que no les daran servicios medicos a sus empleados o reduciran los beneficios debido a la nueva ley de salud.
Los empleadores no esperaran hasta el ultimo minuto para hacer los cambios. Ellos entienden que es en su mejor interes el educar a sus empleados acerca de las ramificaciones de la nueva ley de salud. Muchos ya han empezado a explicarle a sus empleados por que los cambiso son inevitables.
La preocupacion de la ley de salud tendra un efecto muy grande en las proximas elecciones. Cuando se combina con las demas preocupaciones de los Americanos en estos momentos como los trabajos, el gasto y el deficit, se crea lo que los analistas llaman la "ola" de la eleccion que eliminara la ventaja y el control de los democratas en el Congreso.
ObamaCare's Ever-Rising Price Tag
Voters will understand plenty about the hidden costs of the law by November.
By KARL ROVE
White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod argued earlier this year that health-care reform would become more popular after it passed, boosting Democrats in the midterm elections. "We have to go out and sell it," he told the National Journal, adding in an interview in Newsweek that "people [will] see the benefits that accrue to them."
That's not quite how it has worked out. ObamaCare is becoming more, not less, unpopular. The Rasmussen poll reported the week after health reform's passage in March that 55% of likely voters supported its repeal while 42% did not. A Rasmussen poll last month showed that 56% backed repeal; 39% did not.
Some may argue that President Obama has been able to extol the legislation's supposed virtues only sporadically, instead having to confront other challenges from the Gulf oil spill to foreign policy controversies. But the real problem is ObamaCare's substantive defects, some only now coming to light. Consider the April 22 analysis by Medicare's chief actuary, Richard Foster, which blasted to smithereens many of Mr. Obama's claims for the bill.
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.For starters, Mr. Foster estimated Americans would pay $120 billion in fines for not having adequate insurance coverage and that 14 million people would lose their coverage as rising costs led companies to dump it. Those effects are not in keeping with Mr. Obama's promises that if people liked the health insurance they had they could keep it, and that the reforms would provide universal coverage.
Finding it hard to cover costs under the bill's formulas, according to Mr. Foster's analysis, doctors would refuse new patients and one out of every six hospitals and nursing homes could start operating in the red. And while Medicaid would cover 16 million more people, there might not be enough doctors to treat them.
Because of new taxes, Mr. Foster rightly claimed that sick people would face "high drug and device prices" and everyone would pay higher premiums—again, exactly the opposite of what Mr. Obama said.
Then in May, the Congressional Budget Office updated its cost projections. It found that the new health legislation would cost $115 billion more than estimated when it was enacted.
That's not the end of the bad news. October will see the first round of Medicare cuts. Up to half of seniors will lose their Medicare Advantage coverage (a program that allows seniors to receive additional services through a private health plan), or at least some of their benefits under this program. Watch for the administration to try to keep companies from notifying their customers of benefit cuts or premium increases before the election. Meanwhile, the Daily Caller website reported yesterday that the administration has missed deadlines for issuing four sets of regulations specified by the bill and lacks a master time-line for the other required regulations.
About Karl Rove
Karl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy-making process.
Before Karl became known as "The Architect" of President Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, nonpartisan causes, and nonprofit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S. Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as the Moderate Party of Sweden.
Karl writes a weekly op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, is a Newsweek columnist and is the author of the forthcoming book "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions).
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atKarl@Rove.comor visit him on the web atRove.com. Or, you can send a Tweet to @karlrove.
.Drug and medical device companies are already making provisions for the new taxes that kick in next year. This means less investment in plants and equipment and smaller R&D budgets. Big layoffs, especially in the pharmaceutical industry, will result as companies confront this expensive new reality.
All of this represents a great political challenge to the administration and the Democratic Party this fall. Doctors, nurses and hospital workers impacted by health-care reform's adverse effects will speak more often to more people and with greater passion and credibility than will the president and his allies. So too will the millions of people who work for insurance companies, drug companies, device manufacturers and other health-care providers.
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Complete Coverage: Health-Care Overhaul
.Then there are employers and their workers. According to a survey by Towers Watson, a human resources consulting firm, 88% of companies plan to pass on increased health-care benefit costs to employees, 74% plan to reduce benefits, and up to 12% will drop all coverage for employees. Retirees won't fare well either: 43% of employers that now provide retiree medical benefits are likely to reduce or eliminate them thanks to the new health legislation.
Employers will not wait until the last moment to spring changes on their workers. They understand it is in their best interest to full educate employees about the ramifications of the new health-care bill. Many have already begun helping employees understand why companies are being forced to make inevitable changes.
The health-care concerns of millions of Americans will ripple through the electorate before November. When joined with other voter concerns on jobs, spending and deficits, these ripples are likely to create what analysts call a "wave" election, which will wash away effective Democratic control of Congress.
Mr. Rove, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, is the author of "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions, 2010).