por admin » Mié Jul 20, 2011 6:56 am
REVIEW & OUTLOOKJULY 20, 2011
A Spanish Reckoning
Madrid's contribution to Europe's systemic financial
The Spanish government wasted little time dismissing the results of last week's EU stress tests, which gave failing grades to five Spanish banks. And perhaps Madrid can be forgiven a little indignation at this stage, having disclosed far more about its banking system than the rest of the European Union. German state-controlled lender Helaba, for example, would probably have joined the Fail Club had the bank allowed its results to be published.
But Spain's savings banks—the cajas—remain riddled with serious problems, meaning their lenders in Germany, France, Britain, the U.S. and beyond could have serious problems as well. Even with further capital injections, some of the cajas will fall short of Madrid's minimum core-capital requirements, spelling losses for creditors both public and private. What we don't know is what the damage will be to the Spanish government or any of the banks' lenders.
A key risk to the Spanish system remains the real-estate market. Even with housing prices 22% below their 2007 peak, supply still outweighs demand. And as late as December, some of the cajas continued to offer 100% mortgage financing and other gimmicks. By subsidizing mortgages they have managed to inflate the values of their holdings and keep reported property prices artificially high. The Bank of Spain has estimated that troubled lenders would need no more than €20 billion to make up their capital shortfalls, but several analysts put the figure north of €45 billion, depending on how far Spanish real estate prices eventually fall.
Madrid—with a debt ratio well below the EU average, at 63.6% of GDP—can better afford to recapitalize its banks than most of its neighbors. The real Spanish nightmare would come if heavy bank losses meet ballooning sub-national debt. Spain's regional governments control more than a third of public spending and can issue their own bonds. But if one of those governments should fail to pay its bills, Madrid would shoulder the burden.
In May, 13 of these 17 regions held elections, and their new leaders are now busy inspecting their predecessors' books—and finding worrisome holes in their accounting. The new government in Castilla La Mancha, for example, last week warned that its budget deficit may be more than twice as large as previously thought.
More disclosures on that order and Spain could be facing a full-blown regional debt crisis, the likes of which neither the EU banking authority nor the Bank of Spain seem to have considered. That prospect makes it all the more urgent that Madrid get its troubled banks off of public life support. Already it is in the process of nationalizing one of the cajas through its bank-bailout fund, and in the coming days and weeks it will likely make similar moves toward other banks that can't tap private capital markets.
From here, the best course for Madrid would be swiftly to finish what it has started. For years the cajas have been the Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs of Spain, insulated from market pressures and too powerful politically to be allowed to fail. Getting them off government support—which Madrid says is its goal—would require radical restructuring, complete with mass layoffs and branch closings. Even then some of the cajas may not be able to stand on their own and would have to be put up for auction.
What matters now is that the government act promptly. The longer Madrid waits to clean up these banks, the more expensive they become for everyone, as external financiers demand ever-higher premiums for extending credit to the Spanish system. An expanding regional-debt hole will only compound the squeeze. But with national elections coming up in March—possibly sooner—the government's incentive will be to procrastinate.
Spain's Socialist government deserves credit for imposing greater transparency on its banking system than any other government in continental Europe. Now it must show the same courage to clean up the sector for good—or face a reckoning neither Spain, nor Europe as a whole, can afford.