Lunes25/07/ No hay aumento al limite de la deuda Americana

[Maricielo]

Estuve leyendo el manifiesto del noruego autor de los atentados y el cuenta en el documento que financió gran parte de los atentados con el dinero que había obtenido negociando opciones. El invierte en el mercado de acciones desde los 17 años y desde los 15 dice que dedicaba una hora al día para aprender de análisis técnico, autoinstruyéndose.

[admin]

Oil down 99.45

-45.34

[admin]

BAP +2.14%

[admin]

PAAS -4.44%

FAS -1.33%

[admin]

Au up 1,612.90

Ag up 40.41, futures cu 4.40

[admin]

Copper July 25,13:59
Bid/Ask 4.3831 - 4.3835
Change -0.0020 -0.05%
Low/High 4.3537 - 4.3965
Charts

Nickel July 25,13:59
Bid/Ask 10.7665 - 10.7814
Change -0.0445 -0.41%
Low/High 10.6862 - 10.8458
Charts

Aluminum July 25,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.1637 - 1.1643
Change +0.0127 +1.10%
Low/High 1.1417 - 1.1673
Charts

Zinc July 25,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.1012 - 1.1030
Change -0.0122 -1.10%
Low/High 1.0964 - 1.1153
Charts

Lead July 25,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.2015 - 1.2038
Change -0.0101 -0.83%
Low/High 1.1970 - 1.2174

[admin]

El Senado y la Casa de Representantes estan preparando sus propios planes para ser aprobado, acorralarian a Obama por que son soluciones a corto plazo, Obama ha jurado vetarlas por que el no quiere que el tema se vuelva a tocar hasta si no despues de las elecciones. Este tema es muy danino para sus perspectivas de reeleccion.

Esta sera la mejor prueba, los Americanos podran ver que es mas importante para Obama, la salud economica del pais y su reeleccion. Quedara al descubierto. Dejara caer al pais en el default....a esperar el proximo capitulo, esto se pone interesante.

Euro down 1.4389

-41.21

[admin]

Aumentan el pronostico de inflacion de Brasil, bonito ejemplo tenemos los Peruanos. Contra!!

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Brazil Economists Increase Forecast for 2012 Inflation to Record of 5.28%
QBy Matthew Bristow - Jul 25, 2011 1:14 PM ET .
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Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email ...Economists covering the Brazilian economy raised their 2012 inflation forecast to its highest ever for that year, after the central bank last week signaled it may soon halt the cycle of interest rate increases that began in January.

Consumer prices will rise 5.28 percent next year, according to the median forecast in a July 22 central bank survey of economists published today. The figure was up from 5.20 percent the previous week and from 4.5 percent in January.

“This is basically saying that the central bank won’t do enough,” Pedro Tuesta, a Washington-based economist covering Latin America for 4Cast Inc., said in a telephone interview. “They don’t want to harm growth, so they are going to take a long time to bring inflation to the center of the target.”

The central bank raised its benchmark lending rate for a fifth straight meeting last week, after inflation accelerated to a six-year high in mid-July. In a statement accompanying the decision, policy makers withdrew a commitment to raise rates for a “sufficiently long” period, leading traders to increase bets that the bank will hold the rate unchanged at 12.50 percent for the rest of year.

The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.

Played Down
A government official in President Dilma Rousseff’s economic team played down the worsening of inflation expectations, saying that it was a result of just 11 analysts out of 110 increasing their forecast for consumer price increases next year. Of the analysts surveyed by the central bank, eight cut their 2012 forecast, said the official, who asked not be identified since he is not authorized to speak publicly about the survey.

Economists held their prediction for 2011 inflation unchanged. Prices, as measured by the IPCA index, will rise 6.31 percent this year, the survey found.

Economists raised their forecast for the benchmark interest rate to 12.75 percent next year, from a week earlier forecast of 12.63 percent. In contrast to traders, economists expect the central bank to raise the Selic rate once more this year, by a quarter point at its August policy meeting.

Consumer prices rose 6.75 percent in the year through mid- July. The central bank aims to slow inflation back to the midpoint of its target in 2012.

Economists held their forecasts for economic growth at 3.94 percent this year, and 4.0 percent in 2012.

Brazil’s government seeks a “soft landing” that brings inflation under control without halting economic expansion, Rousseff told Sao Paulo-based Valor Economico newspaper in an interview July 22.

The yield on the interest rate futures contract maturing in January 2013, the most traded in Sao Paulo today, rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 12.70 percent at 1:11 p.m. New York time. The real appreciated 0.9 percent to 1.5379 against the U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 1999.

[admin]

Petroleo a $120? esta es la apuesta mas grande del sector energia. 20% de aumento para fin de anio.

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Oil at $120 Becomes Biggest Energy Bet
Jul 25, 2011 1:51 PM ET .
Oil at $120 Now Biggest Bet Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
The biggest bet in the oil market has become a 20 percent increase to $120 by the end of the year as global growth drives demand for raw materials.

The number of contracts held by traders in options to buy West Texas Intermediate crude at $120 a barrel in December totaled 45,502 lots on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of July 21, 4,226 lots more than the next-highest wager, which is for $125. Open interest in the two contracts jumped 29 percent in the past four weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Traders anticipate this year’s gains will exceed forecasts of the most accurate strategists as economic expansion in emerging markets outweighs the debt crisis in Europe, slowing U.S. growth and efforts by Saudi Arabia and the International Energy Agency to curb prices. Bullish bets mark a turnaround from April, when $80 a barrel was the favorite wager and futures fell as much as 22 percent in the next two months.

“We’re in a sweet spot,” said Gordon Kwan, the Hong Kong- based head of regional energy research at Mirae Asset Securities Ltd. and the most accurate forecaster for New York oil among 26 analysts ranked by Bloomberg in the past eight quarters. “Oil prices are well supported,” he said in a July 20 interview. “It’s very profitable for the energy sector but not high enough to kill any economic growth.”

Oil for September delivery fell 74 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $99.13 at 1:45 p.m. on the Nymex. That follows four straight weekly advances and a 26 percent jump in the past year. Futures are 33 percent below the record $147.27 a barrel reached in July 2008. Prices are averaging $98.37 so far in 2011.

Oil Estimate
The median estimate of the five most accurate forecasters in Bloomberg rankings over the eight quarters through June 30 is for crude to rise 2.5 percent to $101.30 by year’s end. Kwan predicts WTI will trade from $90 to $110 the rest of 2011.

WTI has climbed 8.4 percent in 2011 as armed conflict in Libya halted about 1.6 million barrels a day of production, compared with the 11 percent gain for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials. The S&P 500 Index has advanced 7 percent. Government bonds have returned 1.7 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Sovereign Broad Market Plus Index.

Oil demand will rise to a record next year, driven by China, according to the IEA. The Paris-based adviser to 28 industrialized nations said last week it won’t provide more oil from its stockpiles, after announcing June 23 it would release supplies to help compensate for lost Libyan production.

Emergency Stocks
“Options markets are clearly projecting a larger probability of a rise in oil from now out to December than was the case at the end of June, when the IEA emergency stocks release was expected to damp upward price pressures,” Christin Tuxen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen who was second in the Bloomberg rankings, said in a July 20 interview.

Open interest in December $120 calls, bets that prices will rise above that level, was 14 percent higher than for $80 put options, wagers that prices would fall. One options contract covers 1,000 barrels of oil. The total of calls has outnumbered puts in Nymex trading since June 2010.

“This is the best way to see what commodity funds are doing,” James Cordier, who manages more than $100 million at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida, said in a July 22 interview. “When you see the volume and open interest change from the $80 puts to the $120 calls, normally you see sentiment in the futures market shift right after that, and we have rallied dramatically.”

Two-Year High
Oil futures surged 37 percent from mid-February to a two- year intraday high of $114.83 on May 2 following the rebellion against Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, revolts that overthrew governments in Tunisia and Egypt, and protests in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. As concern deepened in April that Greece, Spain and Portugal would default, open interest surged in $80 put options. Futures tumbled 22 percent.

Slower U.S. growth, Europe’s debt crisis and Chinese efforts to slow expansion and curb inflation may cause prices to average less than $90 in the fourth quarter as Saudi Arabia boosts production, according to analysts at Citi Global Markets and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Every 10 percent gain in oil prices will reduce global economic growth by about 0.25 percentage point if sustained for a year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Slowing Growth
The U.S., the world’s largest consumer, probably expanded 1.8 percent in the second quarter, the slowest pace in a year, according to the median forecast of 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Global gross domestic product will probably grow 4.3 percent in 2011, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released June 17, down from an April forecast of 4.4 percent.

“Oil demand growth seems to have returned to its traditional relationship to global GDP growth, and the down revisions to expected economic expansion seem to be resulting in downward expectations of petroleum demand growth,” Edward Morse and Aakash Doshi at Citi Global Markets in New York said in a July 14 note to clients. They estimate Nymex crude will average $82 in the fourth quarter.

China, which has been driving global fuel consumption, has boosted lending rates five times since October as inflation rose to a 6.4 percent annual rate in June.

$88 Target
Nymex futures will average $88 in the fourth quarter amid the increase in Saudi Arabian output, Francisco Blanch at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York forecast last week. The nation’s production jumped 0.8 percent in May, figures from the Joint Organization Data Initiative showed this week.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter, announced the increase June 8 after failing to get other OPEC members to endorse a plan to boost output. The kingdom produced 9.21 million barrels a day in June, the highest level since October 2008, according to Bloomberg estimates.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ benchmark price, known as the OPEC basket, has traded above $100 a barrel since Feb. 21, its longest-ever run in triple digits. The price is calculated on the basis of one crude grade from each of the group’s 12 members.

Open interest in options contracts show aggregate calls outnumbered puts by 1.81 million to 1.72 million as of July 20. When the ratio increased in January, prices hit a two-year high.

Emergency Reserves
The IEA said July 21 that it won’t release more from emergency reserves because OPEC will “substantially cover” the loss of Libyan exports. OPEC output rose to 29.6 million barrels a day last month, a 1.8 percent increase from May, the group said July 12 in its monthly report. The 11 members bound by quotas produced 26.9 million barrels, the most since 2008.

The IEA estimates consumption will be a record 91 million barrels a day in 2012, driven by growth in China, India and the Middle East. Members will boost supplies if needed, it said.

Even after efforts to cool growth, China’s GDP rose 9.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said July 13 in Beijing. Oil use in the world’s fastest-growing consumer will jump 6.9 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2012, according to a forecast in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market report on July 13.

“The indicators that we’ve had in the last few weeks from China show that growth in those emerging Asian economies continues to be stable and we don’t, at least in the near term, see any big risks that are likely to evolve on the down side,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.

Westmore’s Forecast
Westmore’s fourth-quarter price forecast of $116 “lines up reasonably well with where the options market is at the moment,” he said. His forecast was the highest among the five top analysts. He was fifth after Mirae’s Kwan, Danske Bank’s Tuxen, Helen Henton at Standard Chartered Bank in London and Michael Wittner at Societe General SA in New York. Henton had the lowest forecast at $95 a barrel.

Global demand will exceed supplies in 2011 and 2012 because of emerging markets, according to the July 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook by the U.S. Energy Department. The so-called stock draw is forecast to begin in the third quarter of this year and average 460,000 barrels in 2011 and 360,000 barrels in 2012.

“Anything close to a consensus fundamental forecast for the second half of this year is still showing big stock draws, even with the IEA release,” said Wittner, who forecasts prices will average $101.30 in the fourth quarter. “The macro issues may weigh on markets, but the bottom line is the fundamentals are still constructive.”

[admin]

CAT +0.99%

DRN -1.29%

EDC +0.34%

AAPl +1.68%

MON +2.07%

TTM +1.17%

[admin]

El acusado de la masacre de Noruega advierte sobre más células

Por SVEN GRUNDBERG , VANESSA FURHMANS y NICLAS ROLANDER
OSLO (EFE Dow Jones)--Anders Behring Breivik, el hombre de 32 años que ha admitido haber llevado a cabo la explosión y el tiroteo del viernes en Noruega, se declaró el lunes no culpable de los cargos de terrorismo, y estará en custodia durante ocho semanas tras una breve audiencia judicial a puerta cerrada.

En una conferencia de prensa tras la audiencia de media hora, autoridades noruegas dijeron que Breivik será confinado sólo durante cuatro semanas y que la policía investiga su declaración de que hubo otras dos células terroristas en su organización.

Anders Behring Breivik es trasladado de la corte en un patrullero en Oslo.
.En declaraciones mediante un intérprete, el juez de distrito Kim Heger dijo que, a pesar de declararse no culpable, Breivik admitió haber llevado a cabo el viernes por la tarde el ataque con bomba de Oslo, que causó siete muertes y 30 heridos y el tiroteo en la isla de Utoya, en el que murieron 86 personas, la mayor parte adolescentes. Breivik le dijo a su abogado que las muertes eran "atroces pero necesarias".

Los ataques del viernes, incluyendo la detonación de una bomba en un edificio gubernamental en Oslo y el tiroteo en un campamento con jóvenes adolescentes simpatizantes del partido laborista, cobraron la vida de 93 personas en lo que las autoridades describen como un trastornado intento de declararles la guerra a las fuerzas del multiculturalismo y el pluralismo por las que se caracteriza este pequeño país escandinavo.

El partido gobernante Laborista de centro-izquierda en Noruega, que siempre ha defendido los beneficios de la inmigración y el multiculturalismo, era el blanco principal del ataque.

Noruega, un país rural de 4,6 millones de habitantes, tiene pocos antecedentes de extremismo política, y aún menos en episodios de violencia. Por esta razón, la masacre está desatando la preocupación en Europa de que un sentimiento cada vez más anti-inmigrante que se está propagando por el continente desde hace varios años podría traducirse en mayor violencia, repentina e inesperada.

A diferencia de otros países escandinavos, incluyendo Suecia y Dinamarca, Noruega no cuenta con un partido general de extrema derecha. Breivik fue en su día miembro del conservador Partido del Progreso, el segundo mayor del país después del Partido Laborista. El Partido del Progreso, que ha insistido en distanciarse de Breivik, adoptó posturas duras contra la inmigración pero es menos extremo que los partidos populista anti-inmigración que han proliferado en otras partes de Escandinavia.

Breivik dijo que cree que su actuación fue "atroz" pero que en su cabeza eran necesarias, dijo su abogado Geir Lippestad a una cadena de televisión noruega.

Un autoproclamado extremista anti-inmigración, Breivik publicó un manifiesto de 1.500 páginas en línea el viernes en el que detallaba los preparativos para sus ataques y sus motivos xenófobos.

"Los musulmanes deben ser considerados como animales salvajes", escribió en el documento, cuya autenticidad fue confirmada por su abogado. "No hay que culpar a los animales salvajes sino a los traidores multiculturales de categoría A y B que permitieron que estos animales entren a nuestros países, y continúan respaldándolos", señaló Breivik. Los traidores de clase A y B incluyen a "políticos y periodistas".

El domingo se celebraron numerosas vigilias y servicios religiosos para conmemorar a las víctimas y aliviar a un país sacudido que trata de superar esta tragedia.

La policía noruega ha dicho que la cifra de muertos podría revisarse a la baja.

[admin]

Las acciones de EE.UU. reducen sus pérdidas pero prevalece la cautela

Por BRENDAN CONWAY
NUEVA YORK (Dow Jones)--Las acciones de Estados Unidos salían de sus mínimos de la sesión el lunes al mediodía en medio del estancamiento de las negociaciones sobre el límite de deuda del país, lo que ocasionaba incertidumbre entre los inversionistas sobre si el país podrá evitar caer en un incumplimiento de pagos o sufrir una rebaja de su calificación crediticia.

El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones caía 39 puntos, o 0,3%, a 12.641. La medida llegó a caer 145 puntos tras la apertura debido a la división entre los republicanos y demócratas sobre el aumento del límite de deuda.

El índice Standard & Poor's 500 retrocedía 3 puntos, o 0,3%, a 1.342. Las bajas en el índice eran encabezadas por los sectores financiero y de las telecomunicaciones, pero las acciones de servicios básicos, tecnología e industriales registraban leves avances. En tanto, el Índice Compuesto Nasdaq descendía 3 puntos, o 0,1%, a 2.855.

"Simplemente parece improbable que el Congreso escoja un Armagedón financiero en lugar de un compromiso", dijo Joseph Tanious, estratega de J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "Es probable que esto se solucione en el último minuto, lo que potencialmente sacudiría a los mercados globales", añadió.

Hay pocos eventos en el calendario económico que distraigan a los inversionistas de lo que ocurre en Washington. Las condiciones empresariales en la región del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Dallas se contrajeron a un ritmo más lento en julio, según un informe del banco.

En el frente empresarial, las acciones de E*Trade Financial ascendían 5,2% tras la noticia de que TD Ameritrade planea discutir la posibilidad de adquirir su rival de corretaje en línea. TD Ameritrade subía 3,3%.

Research In Motion perdía 4,2%, después que la fabricante de los Blackberry anunciara que reducirá su fuerza laboral en 2.000 empleos.

Kimberly-Clark retrocedía 1,7%. La compañía de productos de consumo informó que la ganancia de todo el año se podría situar en el extremo inferior de las proyecciones debido a un aumento en los costos.

La compañía con fines de lucro de educación universitaria Bridgepoint Education caía 11%. La firma informó el viernes pasado que Warburg Pincus LLC, propietaria de cerca de las dos terceras partes de las acciones comunes en circulación de la firma, se registró para vender la totalidad de su participación.

[admin]

PAAS 4.56%

SLW -0.89%

EGO +0.92%

NG-0.20%

GDXJ -0.16%

BVN -0.87%

[admin]

Wall Street esta donando dinero a la campania de reeleccion del republicano lider de la Casa de Representantes Boehner quien esta en el medio de las negociaciones del aumento del limite de la deuda y la reduccion del deficit y gasto del gobierno.

El mismo Wall Street que hace dos anios y medio estuvo enamorado del joven candidato negro, el senador Obama, carismatico, prometedor, lleno de entusiasmo con una hermosa oratoria que fascinaba a todo el mundo, el mismo hombre que ocasionaba desmayos y hacia derramar lagrimas de emocion, el que iba a amistar a todos los enemigos en el mundo, el mismo que iba a cambiar la politica en US para siempre, el iba a unir al pais y hacer que el gato y el raton comieran del mismo plato a lo San Martin de Porras....mejor no sigo...a veces se me pasa la mano.

Bueno, el asunto es que Wall Street no quiere saber nada con Obama ni los democratas, que se jodan por imbeciles, como? en que cabeza? nunca entendere como gente tan inteligente puede ser tan estupida a la vez. O ya se...creyeron las promesas de Obama, al igual quelos Venezolanos creyeron en Chavez y los Cubanos en Fidel y los Peruanos en Humala.....babosos, provoca insultarlos.

[admin]

Reed, el lider de la mayoria democrata en el Senado esta hablando.