Jueves 04/08/11 Seguros de desempleo

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Eventos economicos

Jueves

Ventas de tiendas
Seguros de desempleo
Reporte de gas natural
Subasta de bonos
Money supply
Balance del Fed

Chain Store Sales


Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* -2/32 0.344
10-Year Note* -5/32 2.625
* at close

9:31 p.m. EDT 08/03/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 92.43 0.50 91.93
Gold 1665.5 -0.8 1666.3
E-mini Dow 11887 69 11818
E-mini S&P 500 1262.75 8.25 1254.50

9:42 p.m. EDT 08/03/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.26 77.06
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4329 1.4323
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper August 03,21:39
Bid/Ask 4.3651 - 4.3664
Change +0.0237 +0.55%
Low/High 4.3414 - 4.3705
Charts

Nickel August 03,21:36
Bid/Ask 10.8457 - 10.8788
Change +0.0549 +0.51%
Low/High 10.7713 - 10.8797
Charts

Aluminum August 03,21:38
Bid/Ask 1.1296 - 1.1312
Change +0.0046 +0.41%
Low/High 1.1259 - 1.1327
Charts

Zinc August 03,21:39
Bid/Ask 1.0797 - 1.0806
Change +0.0107 +1.00%
Low/High 1.0690 - 1.0831
Charts

Lead August 03,21:36
Bid/Ask 1.1503 - 1.1522
Change +0.0127 +1.12%
Low/High 1.1376 - 1.1540

[admin]

Ag up

Aug 3 2011 9:45PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 41.77 41.89
Low/High 40.58 42.15
Change +0.04 +0.10%
30DayChg +7.62 +22.31%
1YearChg +23.40 +127.38%

[admin]

Au up

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 19 hrs. 30 mins.Aug 03, 2011 21:45 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1663.60 - 1664.60
Low/High 1656.00 - 1674.10
Change +2.50 +0.15%
30daychg +177.10 +11.91%
1yearchg +481.60 +40.74%

[admin]

Como era de esperarse Japon interviene unilateralmente su moneda. El Asia al alza. El Japon actua para defender su economia, esta maniana lo hizo el gobierno Suizo tambien.

Euro down 1.4321

El Hang seng +0.29%, Australia +0.29%, Korea -0.37%, el Nikkei mas del 1% al alza.

Yen down 78.36

Oil up 92.35

Los futures del Dow Jones 72 puntos al alza. Aleluya!

[admin]

Temor de menos crecimiento en Brasil , la bolsa brasilera ha bajado mas del 20%, esta en territorio bear. BAC rebajo su pronostico de crecimiento a 3.6% de 4.1%, la desaceleracion economico es mas evidente cada dia.

Petrobas perdio 7.1%

Brazilian Stocks Plummet as Economic Growth Concern Overshadows Valuations
QBy Alexander Cuadros - Aug 3, 2011 4:36 PM ET .

The Bovespa index tumbled the most since February amid speculation investors are closing out so- called stop-loss trades as economic growth falters in Brazil and the U.S., offsetting the cheapest valuations in two years.

Iron-ore miner MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA and oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA followed crude and metals prices lower. Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA, Brazil’s second- biggest airline by market value, led declines for consumer stocks after Bank of America Corp. cut its forecast for Brazil’s gross domestic product expansion.

The Bovespa fell 2.3 percent to 56,017.22 at the 4:15 p.m. New York time close. Brazil’s benchmark equity gauge, which sank into a bear market last month, dropped below a “technical support” level of 57,660 yesterday, said Felipe Casotti, who helps oversee 1.2 billion reais ($767 million) at Maxima Asset Management. That may be spurring preset orders to sell at a certain level to limit losses, he said.

“These stop-losses end up creating a herd effect,” Casotti said in a telephone interview from Rio de Janeiro. “You can see that the economy is cooling. Aside from that you have an external situation that demands a great deal of caution. You have stocks that are cheap, but I think that even after this drop you have to do stock picking.”

The Bovespa pared an earlier slide of as much as 3.6 percent, tracking U.S. stocks higher amid bets the Federal Reserve may consider another stimulus program to prevent a recession. That speculation wasn’t enough to keep copper and crude prices from slumping.

Bear Market
The Bovespa entered a bear market on July 27 after falling 20 percent from its November 2010 bull-market peak. The measure trades at 9.5 times analysts’ earnings estimates, the lowest since March 2009, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

The index fell yesterday to the lowest since September 2009 after earnings at lender Itau Unibanco Holding SA missed analysts’ estimates, local industry extended a slump and equities tumbled worldwide on signs U.S. growth is slowing.

“Although economic activity indicators in Brazil are still showing mixed signals, we believe that the slowdown is becoming more evident at the margin,” economists at Bank of America, including Marcos Buscaglia, wrote in a note to clients today. “Moreover, the international backdrop is becoming more uncertain.”

Bank of America lowered its forecast for Brazil GDP growth this year to 3.6 percent from 4.1 percent previously, and for 2012 to 4.2 percent from 4.6 percent, according to the note.

MMX, Petrobras
MMX, controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, declined the most since June 2010, losing 7.1 percent to 7.28 reais. Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, dropped 3.1 percent to 22.29 reais, the most in three months. Gol plunged 8.1 percent to 10.84 reais, the lowest price since June 2009.

“If one wants to look for market performance more normally seen before an economic decline one should look at a country such as Brazil,” Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management and chief executive officer of New York-based brokerage Oscar Gruss & Son, said in an e-mail to clients today. “This week’s sharp decline saw the index break what many had seen to be key support.”

[admin]

Espero que Humala y su gabinete este mirando con ojos bien abiertos lo que esta pasando en Brasil.

[admin]

Probablemente Chile siga subiendo intereses.

[admin]

Que desgraciasde paises socialistas, ahora Ecuador limitara las importaciones, Dios mio que ese no sea el futuro del Peru.

[admin]

El cobre podria bajar debido a que la huelga en Chile terminaria.

[admin]

La banca europea muestra mas senales de stress debido a la crisis soberana.

Ex Fed apoyan mas medidas de estimulo. QE3???

[admin]

Europa no subira intereses maniana debido a la desaceleracion en esa zona.

[admin]

Mientras Brasil tenga intereses de 12.5% seguir atrayendo capital de inversionistas que estan buscando mejores retornos. Es un iman.

Los analistas especialistas en divisas critican las medidas tomadas por Brasil por ser una solucion temporal a un problema a largo plazo.

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Brazil Scrambles for Long-Term Fix for Real's Strength

By ERIN MCCARTHY and DAWN KISSI
Bad news for Brazil. Investors and analysts think it will take a lot more than capital controls to put the relentless Brazilian real's gains on a leash.

And the measures they say are needed--a fiscal tightening to take the pressure off domestic interest rates or curbs on foreign direct investment inflows--are two overhauls that aren't easy, or all that likely.

Since late 2010, the government has introduced numerous measures to stem the currency's advances, including higher financial transactions taxes on short-term investments. Last week, the government imposed a 1% tax on short-dollar positions.

Though Brazil's recent efforts have weakened the real and reduced liquidity in local markets, market watchers say the government is putting a temporary Band-Aid on the problem, rather than dealing with the core of the matter: Brazil's sky-high domestic interest rates and robust economy. The real has strengthened more than 5% against the dollar this year alone, hitting 12-year highs in July and hurting the competitiveness of manufacturers and exporters.

The measures "do not address the underlying forces that are leading the real to appreciate," said Alberto Ramos, economist at Goldman Sachs.

Brazil's benchmark rate towers over other major economies at 12.50%, which has made its currency a magnet for carry trades, where foreign investors borrow money at low international rates and then invest in high-yielding Brazilian fixed-income investments. Its economy also continues to grow robustly, amid the backdrop of only moderate growth and ultra-low rates in developed markets.

"As long as that reality remains, we should expect (upward) pressure on the currency," Ramos added.

To more effectively curtail the real's rise, Brazil's government must exhibit much more fiscal discipline, economists say. Reducing spending aggressively and balancing its budget would slow growth and ease inflation pressures--the only way policy makers could feasibly start bringing interest rates back to Earth and in turn to weaken its currency.

While the government could make some headway on that front--it announced 51 billion reals in federal budget cuts for 2011 earlier this year--it likely won't do enough to turn the tide for rates.

"They could pull this off but I am not sure they have the political will to tighten fiscal policy," said Colin Harte, director of fixed income and currencies at Barings Asset Management.

Option number two, also unlikely, is to impose measures on foreign direct investment, which "could have an immediate, meaningful and sustained negative impact on the [real]," said Marcela Meirelles, senior vice president with TCW Group. Until now, Brazil has focused its controls on portfolio investment or so-called "hot money" that is prone to move in and out in a hurry. Taking the same approach to FDI, which inherently takes a longer time horizon, is much harder. In addition, Brazil wants and needs to attract FDI to carry out much-needed investments in key areas such as infrastructure.

With few options to bring about a long-term reversal in the real, more short-term fixes and policy noise are likely, analysts say.

The government will continue buying large amounts of dollars in the spot market and could likely implement further capital controls, but there will still be moderate room for the real's appreciation, Meirelles said.

[admin]

Reportan:

Tomorrow’s Tape: Heady Claims

By Mark Gongloff

EverettEconomics:

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims data are due. Will they stay below the 400,000 mark? Will last week’s drop below 400,000 be revised out of existence?
All day: Retail chains report July same-store sales. Did you do your part for the world’s biggest economy by shopping until you dropped, or at least until you needed to sit for a minute?
Earnings: We get reports from:

Cardinal Health
Apache
Alpha Natural Resources
El Paso
Edison International
PG&E
Spectra Energy
Kraft Foods
CIGNA
CVS Caremark
Southwest Airlines
General Motors
Fortune Brands
LinkedIn
AIG
Priceline.com
Fluor
First Solar
Tomorrow's Tape