Viernes 05/08/11 Situacion del empleo

[admin]

Eventos economicos

Viernes

Cuantos empleos se crearon en Julio, nivel de desempleo, se espera 75,000 empleos y el desempleo igual en 9.2%
Credito del consumidor

Monster Employment Index


Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET


Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

[admin]

Copper August 04,13:59
Bid/Ask 4.2369 - 4.2383
Change -0.1046 -2.41%
Low/High 4.2310 - 4.3705
Charts

Nickel August 04,13:59
Bid/Ask 10.6838 - 10.7042
Change -0.1070 -0.99%
Low/High 10.6021 - 10.8797
Charts

Aluminum August 04,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.1091 - 1.1105
Change -0.0159 -1.41%
Low/High 1.0996 - 1.1327
Charts

Zinc August 04,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.0497 - 1.0500
Change -0.0193 -1.80%
Low/High 1.0429 - 1.0831
Charts

Lead August 04,13:59
Bid/Ask 1.1124 - 1.1165
Change -0.0252 -2.22%
Low/High 1.1097 - 1.1540

[admin]

Temor provocado por Italia y Espania. Los europeos estan diciendo que los especuladores estan atacando su mercado de bonos.

-23

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 5/32 0.261
10-Year Note* 2 0/32 2.400
* at close

7:20 p.m. EDT 08/04/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 86.33 -0.30 86.63
Gold 1653.4 -5.6 1659.0
E-mini Dow 11339 -32 11371
E-mini S&P 500 1195.50 -3.25 1198.75

7:30 p.m. EDT 08/04/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.24 78.87
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4063 1.4093
† Late Thursday in New York.

[admin]

Hay rumores de que la banca Italiana esta en problemas, dinero saliendo, buscando compradores, etc.

[Ed_Alex]

estimados

aparte de ello si el petroleo sigue bajando también las aerolíneas deberían de tener un up, UAL por ejemplo

[admin]

Rumores: Italia necesitara un rescate.

[admin]

La masacre de los mercados globales

Los Keynesianos hay usado todo su arsenal y miren como estamos

Ellos dicen que siempre hay algo bueno despues de algo tan malo, el Jueves no lo hubo, los mercados alrededor de todo el mundo tuvieron un dia caotico. El Dow Jones Industrial perdio 512 puntos. El tema discernible fue la generalizada falta de confianza en las politicas edl gobierno, aqui y en Europa.

Si tendriamos que elegir una sola noticia seria la del Bank on New York Mellon que en desesperacion anuncio que comenzara a cobrarle a las corporaciones o insituciones por depositar dinero en el banco.

Nominalmente el crash empezo en Europa, cuando fue evidente que el ultimo rescate no ha funcionado y que la crisis se extendera a Espania e Italia. No hay temor de recesion en europa, lo cual aumentaria la probabilidad de una recesion en US.

Dejando todos los demas detalles al costado, el verdadero problema permanece sin cambio: las economias de Europa y de US han llegado al momento en que no tienen ninguna posibilidad concebible de poder pagar la enorme deuda publica en la que han incurrido en los ultimos 40 anios. La crisis de la deuda este anio ha sido construido por decadas. Trichet del ECB termino su testimonio haciendo un llamado a Europa, a una reforma estructural.

Aqui en US, nosotros hemos tenido tres semanas de arduas negociaciones entre Obama y el Congreso acerca del gasto del gobierno, impuestos y el limite de la deuda por encima de los $14 trillones. El acuerdo no es precisamente uno que incluye reformas comprensivas. La primer contribucion de Obama despues del acuerdo fue insistir en que se deberia subir los impuestos en medio del alto desempleo y poco crecimiento de la economia. Y solo se pudo llegar a un acuerdo respecto al recorte de gastos despues que el republicano Goethner dijo que no se podia negociar con Obama.

Los economistas de izquierda (liberales) ahora estan reclamando que se debe gastar mas.

Pero ya hicimos eso. Desde los primeros meses de la presidencia de Obama, billones de estimulos se han inyectado en la economia, el gasto federal ha crecido al 25% del GDP y el Fed ha destinado enorme cantidades de cash en los mercados.

Los Keynesianos han disparado toda su municion, y aqui estamos camino al sur. Talvez Obama deberia considerar lo que ha hecho para revivir a la economia y comenzar a hacer lo contrario.


The Global Rout
The Keynesians have fired all their ammo and here we are

They say there's always a silver lining. Yesterday there wasn't. Markets around the globe sold off in a chaotic day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average's hair-raising ride ended the day down 512 points. The discernible theme among the wreckage was a generalized loss of confidence in the policy-making role of governments, here and in Europe.

If we had to single out one story in yesterday's events as suggestive of the depth of the desperation it was Bank of New York Mellon's announcement that it would start charging very large corporate and institutional depositors for the privilege of simply holding their cash. When even corporate treasurers are taking their money out of short-term securities and parking it in no-interest cash, you know the big boys are discovering the same anxieties Mom and Pop have known for a year as they ran out of safe havens for their assets.

Nominally, yesterday's rout began in Europe, as it became clear that the latest bailout of its debt-strapped nations isn't working and that the turmoil may spread to Spain and Italy. There is now fear that Europe will slide into recession, which would increase the odds of a United States double-dip.

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank.
.As market participants sort through the charred tea leaves, they will note that oil prices fell below $89, three-month U.S. Treasury bills are yielding next to nothing, or that even the "safe haven" Swiss government felt obliged to drop interest rates near zero to protect its economy from an overvalued franc.

These volatile details matter, but the underlying problem remains unchanged: The economies of Europe and the United States have arrived at the moment when they no longer have any conceivable hope of being able to pay for the huge public commitments they've amassed the past 40 years. This year's "debt crisis" has been building for decades. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet finished his public statement yesterday by calling on Europe, for the umpteenth time, to do "comprehensive structural reform."

Here in the U.S. we have just gone through three weeks of arduous negotiations between the President and Congressional leadership over spending, taxes and a U.S. debt ceiling above $14 trillion. The deal they struck hardly qualifies as comprehensive reform. President Obama's primary contribution, after he joined the talks, was to insist that the deal include tax increases, of all things, amid high unemployment and weak growth. A relatively more sensible deal with spending cuts alone was achieved only after House Speaker John Boehner announced he could no longer do business with the White House. Congressional Democrats and Republicans then cut a compromise.

In the wake of the debt deal, liberal economists are now complaining that the downward pressure on spending violates the Keynesian commandment to flood a faltering economy with government outlays.

We've done that. From the first months of the Obama Presidency, billions of stimulus have been injected into the economy, budgeted federal spending has grown toward 25% of GDP and the Federal Reserve has poured oceans of cash into the markets.

The Keynesians have fired all their ammo, and here we are, going south. Maybe now President Obama should consider everything he's done to revive the American economy—and do the opposite.

[admin]

Tiempo para actuar victima del panico, todo lo contrario

Los inversionistas no deben dejarse guiar por el panico

Las utilidades de las corporaciones siguen robustas, 80% han superado las expectativas del mercado. Las ganancias son 13% mas altos que el anio anterior.

El PE es 13.15 comparado con el promedio de 16 historico.

Otra alternativa es enfocarse en las companias que pagan dividendos.

-----------------

Time to Panic? Just the Opposite By DAVE KANSAS

It is only natural to be a bit scared by Thursday's market rout. But investors shouldn't let fear guide their decisions.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 10% from its recent high—officially a correction—many investors expect more trouble ahead. Whiffs of panic and plaintive cries for more intervention from the Federal Reserve underscored the market's suddenly fragile sentiment on Thursday. Only three of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose.

It is times like this, when the selling stampede gets the loudest, that shrewd investors need to step back and examine the situation with steely cool. From mayhem, opportunity can arise.

That is easier said than done, of course. In the U.S., the Big Debt Deal reached this week didn't mollify investors; instead it sparked fears that spending cuts could curtail growth. Recent data have hinted that the economic recovery already could be stalling.

Over in Europe, speculators are starting to bet that Italy, the third-biggest economy in the euro-zone, might face funding problems. Given Europe's inability to deal with minnows such as Greece, a flopping big fish could present existential questions for the common currency.

Safe havens, meanwhile, are flourishing. Some short-term Treasury debt has sporadically traded at negative yields, meaning investors are paying to hold them.

In short, it is all a big chocolate mess.

Or is it?

Corporate profits remain robust. Around 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results and the average positive surprise is 4%, double the average of the past 25 years. Moreover, aggregate corporate earnings and revenue are both up about 13% from the year-ago period, according to Yardeni Research.

On top of that, corporate cash balances are at record levels and a growing number of companies are buying back shares and raising dividends.

American corporations have shown that they can make a lot of money even if the economy isn't sprinting. And Wall Street analysts believe they will continue to do so. In the last week of July, they raised earnings estimates for all 10 S&P 500 sectors.

Strong profits may seem like white noise as the stock market cascades lower. But at a certain point, the fury subsides and fundamentals come back into focus.

Investors would be wise to consider three strategies in this tumultuous environment: valuation-focused investing, dividend-yield investing and, yes, a bit of safety investing.

In terms of valuation, the run of strong earnings combined with declining stock prices translate into some attractively priced stocks. The S&P 500's price/earnings ratio, based on forward earnings, stood at 13.15 on Thursday, compared with a long-term average closer to 16.

While a company like Apple might not leap out as a value play, it is trading at 14 times forward earnings after its stock has slid 4% since the sell-off began two weeks ago. Apple is sitting on $76 billion in cash, so a dividend could be in its future. And in the last quarter it sold every iPad it could make, not to mention zillions of iPhones.

Intel is trading at 9 times forward earnings, and is buying back shares and promising strong revenue growth. General Electric is trading at 12 times earnings, IBM at 13 times and Ford at just 6 times.

Decent valuations don't always spell instant success. Several companies that appear cheap face major challenges. Ford, for instance, needs folks to start buying more new cars once again,, something that depends on the job market perking up.

Another strategy is to focus on dividends—getting paid to wait for the market to recover. The downdraft has caused a lot of robust yields, especially when compared with the 2.44% yield on 10-year Treasurys.

Pfizer, which trades at 8 times forward earnings, is paying a 4.5% dividend yield. Merck, also trading at 8 times forward earnings, boasts a 4.7% dividend yield. Verizon, trading at 15 times forward earnings, is yielding 5.5% and AT&T, trading at 12 times forward earnings, is yielding 5.9%.

Electric utilities are another traditional yield play, and those stocks have held up better than most during the recent selloff. American Electric Power, Southern Co. and Duke Energy all sport yields around 5%.

Given the recent volatility, focusing a bit of your tactics on safety also makes sense. While gold dipped 0.4% on Thursday, it has been breaking records all year, and J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others think that will continue as Western governments deal with their debt challenges.

While gold has made a great run, the gold miners have trailed. J.P. Morgan believes the miners are due to make up for lost ground and it likes Goldcorp, Kinross, Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold.

So, as the markets crater around you, keep a cool head and look for opportunities that make sense. As Warren Buffett says: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. No shortage of fear out there on Thursday.

Write to Dave Kansas at dave.kansas@wsj.com

[admin]

Korea abre 4.25%a la baja, Australia -1.98%, el Nikkie -3.40%

Au down 1,642

Oil down 86.35

Yields down 2.42%

Euro donw 1.4080

-29

Yen up 79.07

[admin]

Obviamente el Asia esta siguiendo el liderazgo de US y el resto del mundo, profundamente a la baja. No es novedad.

[Ed_Alex]

Buen repunte de LinkedIn en el after, echandole el ojo para mañana

LinkedIn posts strong first results as public company
Aug 4, 2011, 23:47 GMT


San Francisco - LinkedIn, the professional-networking website that more than doubled in value when it made an initial stock offering in May, reported strong financial results Thursday after its first quarter as a public company.
The Silicon Valley company said that it earned 10.8 million dollars on revenue of 121 million dollars, blowing past earlier sales estimates of 106 million dollars and more than double the sales figure of the year-earlier period.
Analysts put much of the success down to the publicity surrounding the initial public offering, which made LinkedIn the first US social-networking company to go public. The IPO was followed by a surge in membership, with the number of LinkedIn members now 115.8 million, up 61 per cent from a year earlier.

[Victor VE]

Tenemos mas de US$40000 millones en nuestras reservas internacionales, creo que podemos aguantar otra crisis

[Ed_Alex]

Ustedes creen que realmente nos vayamos a una recesión? aún cuando el pbi de USA crece a un ritmo de casi 1.8% (esperado), aún cuando los resultados de la mayoría de empresas del S&P tienen utilidades robustas?. Es decir que tan mal no estamos, por ejemplo recuerdan que el PBI en el 2008 se redujo en 5 o 4%, es decir fue negativo por todo el año, y en el 2008 recuerdo que hubo una caída de casi 2949 en 18 sesiones entre set y oct08 (11,400 a 8400), para que pase eso el PBI tuve que ser negativo.

La figura de ahora no es tan mal, estan empleando a un ritmo más lento y las utilidades vienen bien y ya vamos cayendo 1343 puntos o 10% desde el último punto más alto. Ahora la figura de la eurozona pinta más, cuánto podría impactar en el DJ? se le llevaría a los 11,000 puntos?.

[Ed_Alex]

De acuerdo con la opinión de todos tenemos las siguientes apuestas para mañana apostando a un repunte de la otra semana y que la FED sale con un nuevo QE3

Petroleo: ERX 3x Bull
USO 1x
BPZ por sus resultados


Tecnologicas: TYH ex Bull
LinkedIn por sus buenos resultados

otras a considerar?,