Viernes 05/08/11 Situacion del empleo

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G-20 programa teleconferencia por crisis en sábado:fuente Brasil
sábado 6 de agosto de 2011 14:14 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
BRASILIA (Reuters) - Funcionarios del grupo de potencias económicas G-20 realizarán una conferencia telefónica el sábado para discutir la creciente crisis financiera en Europa y Estados Unidos, dijo un funcionario del Ministerio de Hacienda de Brasil.

El funcionario afirmó a Reuters que los viceministros de Finanzas del bloque participarán en la convocatoria, la cual estaba programada para las 19:30 hora de Brasilia (2230 GMT).

"Será un intercambio de información y opiniones", dijo el funcionario a través de un correo electrónico, sin dar más detalles.

Algunos inversionistas se han mostrado ansiosos de ver señales de una respuesta política coordinada entre las principales economías, lo que podría evitar que la crisis se extienda o empeore.

Los temores de una recesión mundial han aumentado a raíz de la ola de ventas de esta semana en los mercados financieros y la decisión de Standard & Poor's de rebajar por primera vez la calificación crediticia a largo plazo de Estados Unidos

[admin]

Bayer amenaza con sacar su producción de Alemania: reporte
sábado 6 de agosto de 2011 10:02 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
FRANCFORT (Reuters) - La farmacéutica Bayer, creadora de la aspirina en 1899, amenaza con trasladar su producción de productos químicos fuera de su nativa Alemania en respuesta a mayores costos en electricidad derivados del retiro gradual del Gobierno de la energía nuclear, según un reporte.

"Es importante que nos mantengamos competitivos en comparación con otros países. De lo contrario una compañía global como Bayer podría considerar reasignar su producción a países con costos energéticos más bajos", dijo el presidente ejecutivo de Bayer, Marijn Dekkers, a la revista alemana WirtschaftsWoche.

El Parlamento de Alemania aprobó un proyecto de ley a principios del mes pasado que prevé una salida gradual de la generación de energía nuclear en suelo alemán en 2022.

"Alemania es cada vez menos atractiva como lugar de producción para la industria de productos químicos de alto consumo energético", agregó Dekkers, y citó precios de la energía que ya eran los más altos de la Unión Europea.

Como resultado de ello, China está ganando competitividad respecto a Alemania como futuro sitio para las nuevas inversiones, de acuerdo con Dekkers.

"No veo ninguna señal de que esté estallando una burbuja en China. Anticipo mayor crecimiento allí", dijo en la entrevista de un número de la revista que se publicará el lunes.

[admin]

Comenzo el desfile:

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Buffett dice que S&P se ha equivocado, no habra otra recesion.

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Buffett Says S&P’s Downgrade Mistaken, Still Doesn’t See Another Recession
QBy Betty Liu and Andrew Frye - Aug 6, 2011 6:14 PM ET .
Billionaire Warren Buffett said Standard & Poor’s made a mistake in downgrading the U.S. credit rating and reiterated his view that the economy will avoid its second recession in three years.

The U.S., which was cut yesterday to AA+ from AAA at S&P, merits a “quadruple A” rating, Buffett, 80, said in an interview with Betty Liu at Bloomberg Television. The downgrade followed the biggest weekly selloff in U.S. stocks in 32 months, with the S&P 500 slumping 7.2 percent to its lowest level since November.

“Financial markets create their own dynamics, but I don’t think we’re facing a double dip recession,” said Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) “Clearly what stock markets do have is an effect on confidence, and this selloff can create a lack of confidence.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Betty Liu in New York at bliu17@bloomberg.net; Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

[admin]

El-Erian de Pimco dice que el downgrade de US pone en duda el rrating de AAA de los demas paises.

El downgrade a US va a golpear muy duro a los paises que tienen el AAA, les va a ser muy dificil mantenerlo.

Son 18 paises que tienen AAA incluyendo a Australia, Hong KOng y la Isla de Man.





U.S. Downgrade Casts Doubt on AAA Countries
QBy Rita Nazareth - Aug 6, 2011 3:41 PM ET .

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said Standard & Poor's will downgrade the U.S after it enacted a law to reduce federal debt by $2.4 trillion over a decade if the credit-rating comapny sticks to what it outlined last month. Photographer: Gillianne Tedder/Bloomberg
.Standard & Poor’s reduction of the U.S. credit rating may make it harder for other top-rated countries to keep their AAA ranking, according to Mohamed A. El- Erian of Pacific Investment Management Co.

The downgrade by S&P “may well raise questions about other members of the dwindling AAA club,” El-Erian, 52, the Newport Beach, California-based chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Pimco, the world’s largest manager of bond funds, wrote in an e-mail today. S&P gives 18 sovereign entities its top ranking, including Australia, Hong Kong and the Isle of Man, according to a July report.

S&P lowered the U.S. one level to AA+ while keeping the outlook at “negative” as it becomes less confident Congress will end Bush-era tax cuts or tackle entitlements. The rating may be cut to AA within two years if spending reductions are smaller than the ones agreed to, interest rates rise or “new fiscal pressures” result in higher general government debt, the New York-based firm said yesterday.

Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their AAA credit ratings on Aug. 2, the day President Barack Obama signed a bill that ended the debt-ceiling impasse that pushed the Treasury to the edge of default. Moody’s and Fitch also said that downgrades were possible if lawmakers fail to enact debt reduction measures and the economy weakens.

The U.K., which is estimated to have debt to GDP this year of 80 percent, 6 percentage points higher than the U.S., also has the top credit grade. In contrast with the U.S., its net public debt is forecast to decline either before or by 2015, S&P said in the statement yesterday.

New Zealand

New Zealand is the only country other than the U.S. that has a AA+ rating from S&P and an Aaa grade from Moody’s. Belgium has an equivalent AA+ grade from S&P, Moody’s and Fitch.

“Investors should be cautiously positioned as the global economy and markets face major uncertainties,” El-Erian wrote. “The downgrade will be a further headwind to growth and job creation in the U.S.”

About $1.87 trillion has been erased from the value of U.S. equities since July 22, including the 4.8 percent plunge by the S&P 500 on Aug. 4 that was the biggest drop since February 2009. U.S. stocks fell the most in 32 months this week, erasing the S&P 500’s 2011 advance, as investors fled equities amid signs that the economy is stalling. Treasuries rose this week, pushing the two-year note yield to a record low.

‘Unthinkable’
“The once-unthinkable loss of the AAA rating will constitute a further hit to already fragile business and consumer confidence,” El-Erian wrote.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell in July to the weakest since March 2009. Gross domestic product climbed at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter following a 0.4 percent gain in the prior quarter that was less than earlier estimated, Commerce Department figures showed July 29. Still, American employers added more jobs than forecast in July and the unemployment rate fell for the first time in four months, the Labor Department said yesterday.

El-Erian also said that Americans will face “higher credit costs” over time. JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that a downgrade would raise the nation’s borrowing costs by $100 billion a year. A U.S. credit-rating cut would likely increase Treasury yields by 60 basis points to 70 basis points over the “medium term,” JPMorgan’s Terry Belton said on a July 26 conference call hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Rally Snuffed
The S&P 500 climbed as much as 1.5 percent in the first five minutes of trading yesterday before turning lower as speculation swirled through the market that S&P was preparing to strip the U.S. of its AAA rating. The index closed 0.1 percent lower at 1,199.38.

Pimco’s $245.5 billion Total Return Fund, managed by Bill Gross, has returned 4.15 percent this year, beating 40 percent of its peers, according to Bloomberg data. Gross boosted his Total Return Fund’s investment in U.S. government securities to 8 percent of assets in June from 5 percent in May, according to Pimco’s website last month. Bonds in developed markets outside the U.S. rose to 13 percent of holdings from 10 percent. Cash and equivalents dropped to 29 percent from 35 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

[admin]

Francia e Inglaterra ahora tienen mejor que rating que US, lo cual es totalmente equivocado, lo unico que salva a Inglaterra que tiene una deuda mas grande que US en relacion a su GDP (PBI) es que con el conservador Cameron han establecido una serie de medidas de austeridad y los gastos iran disminuyendo cada anio que pase, con Obama lo contrario esta ocurriendo, los gastos han subido dramaticamente y cada anio suben mas y mas, especialmente en el 2013 cuando empieza el seguro de salud de Obama.

Sigo pensando que esto es lo mejor que le ha podido pasar a US a largo plazo, ya que el gobierno no entiende a las buenas (los democratas tienen el DNI gastar y gastar mas) entenderan a las malas, ya no habra excusa ni justificacion para seguir gastando, tal y como quiere el tea party.

[admin]

Ahora, Japon que se gasto una millonada en devaluar su moneda al intervenir la semana pasada, vera como el yen volvera a subir con el downgrade de US.

[admin]

Y podria pasar lo mismo con el franco, se seguira fortaleciendo.

[admin]

Realmente, despues de rebajarle el rating a US, tienen que rebajarselo a todos, especialmente a los paises Europeos, ningun pais se lo merece. Como bien dicen por aca, US es la mejor casa en un vecindario muy malo.

[admin]

Parece haber una accion coordinada para apoyar los bonos de US, ahora solo falta que hagan lo mismo con las acciones, las firmas de inversion me imagino que ya habran coordinado entre ellas, sobre todo las mas grandes, y quien sabe tambien los brokers, para evitar que cunda el panico el Lunes. Ojala,

Esos futures van a estar horribles en el premarket.

[PatriPeru]

Me parece increible esto de la rebaja de nota, a EEUU, no porque el pais sea un paraiso de virtudes o no tenga problemas de deuda, sino que, no pense que tan pronto, las calificadoras y demas se iban a poner los pantalones y comenzar a bajarle la nota, a la SUperpotencia, al pais mas importante, con nexos en todo el mundo, con un super ejercito, capaz de doblegar a casi todos juntos, etc... bueno pero lo hicieron. Era lo justo, Obama pensaba que podia gastar y gasta hasta el infinito, sin rendir cuenta a nadie, el que me preocupa ahora es Bernanke, que tambien piensa que puede imprimir e imprimir hasta el infinito y no va pasar nada, quien dice, que los mercados tambien se adelantan y se jode todo.

Bueno los Americanos tendran que vivir con la suya, llego años, sino decadas, de real ajuste, que debio comenzar el 98 o 2002 pero habia un loquito llamado Greenspan, que alargo el festin, el 2008 ya era el año, pero tambien lo pasaron, bueno ajustarse los cinturones, mas trabajo y menos consumo, eso va sacar la pais adelante... y sanar todas las heridas...

[admin]

Asia y Europa mantendran los bonos de US

El Asia, Rusia y Europa mantendran sus tenencias de treasuries. Rusia dijo que una sola rebaja, puede ser ignorada. South Korea puso el tema en una agenda de emergencia para la reunion de maniana. China dijo que US debe curar su adiccion a la deuda, Francia cuestiono junto con US las acciones de S&P.

Inglaterra dijo que US tenia que "ordenar la casa"

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Asia, Europe to ‘Stick It Out’ With Treasuries

Asian states and Russia are likely to retain their U.S. Treasury holdings after Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S.’s sovereign credit rating to AA+ as European governments expressed confidence in the world’s largest economy.

Russia said the one-step cut “can be ignored.” South Korean officials put the downgrade on the agenda of an emergency meeting on global turmoil tomorrow. China’s official Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary the U.S. must cure its “addiction” to borrowing. With Europe battling its debt crisis, France joined the U.S. in questioning S&P’s reasoning.

For all the angst, policy makers from China to Japan to Southeast Asia are lured to Treasuries as a result of efforts to stem gains in their currencies against the dollar, which would impair export competitiveness. Asia accounts for about half of foreign-owned U.S. debt, Treasury data show.

“They won’t be happy about it, but Asian central banks will just have to hold on and stick it out,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in Sydney. “There is pressure on them to hold on to liquid assets and there is nothing more liquid than the Treasury market. At least Treasuries have been doing well and they aren’t holding on to distressed assets.”

China has accumulated $1.16 trillion in U.S. debt and is the largest individual foreign holder, while Japan’s intervention this week to sell an estimated excess of 4 trillion yen ($51 billion) presents a potential new source of demand.

Investors in Treasuries earned 3.12 percent in the three months ending July 31, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. That means a $10 million holding earned $312,000 in the period.

Treasuries Rally
Treasuries have rallied in recent weeks even after S&P warned it may lower the rating from AAA, as investors sought a haven amid deepening concerns that the global economic rebound may fade. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes closed at 2.56 percent yesterday, before the S&P announcement of the cut to AA+, down from 3.12 percent a month ago.

Japan, the second-largest international investor in American government debt, sees no problem with trust in the securities, a Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity.

In the U.K., the world’s third-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, Business Secretary Vince Cable said the dollar is “the key international currency” in the short run.

‘Back on Track’
“Although the American legislators made a terrible mess of things a few weeks ago they have now got things back on track and undertaken to manage their debt in a prudent way,” Cable said in an interview with the BBC.

Russia considers U.S. debt reliable and won’t review its policy of investing in the country, Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said by phone today, adding that the credit- rating downgrade “can be ignored.” for long-term investment strategy. Russia is one of the 10 largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt.

The central bank of Saudi Arabia, one of the oil exporting nations that together are the fourth-biggest holders of U.S. government debt, didn’t respond to questions faxed by Bloomberg.

The S&P decision went further than Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, which affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the U.S. on Aug. 2, the day U.S. President Barack Obama signed a bill that ended the debt-ceiling impasse that pushed the country to the edge of default. Moody’s and Fitch both said that downgrades were possible if lawmakers fail to enact debt reduction measures and the economy weakens.

‘Not Consensual’
The Treasury Department said the S&P decision was flawed by putting discretionary spending levels at $2 trillion higher than the Congressional Budget Office estimates, said a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified. S&P disputed that, saying its judgment wasn’t meaningfully affected by such spending figures.

“We can ask why this agency took this decision based on figures that are not consensual,” French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said in an interview on RTL Radio. “There will be a debate in the U.S. about this decision. It’s one out of three agencies. It’s only one element.”

Treasuries have benefited from a global sell-off in stocks, with yields on three-month Treasury bills dipping into negative territory this month. The MSCI World Index fell to the weakest level since November.

European Prospects
U.S. gross domestic product data last month showed a 1.3 percent growth pace in the second quarter, after a near stall in the first three months of 2011. China’s manufacturing expanded the least since February 2009 last month. In Europe, prospects are clouded by policy makers’ failure to contain a sovereign- debt crisis that still threatens to engulf Italy and Spain, whose bonds have tumbled in the past month.

Obama and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron joined telephone consultations with euro-area counterparts yesterday as investors signaled concern a July 21 agreement to expand the 440 billion-euro ($628 billion) rescue fund would fail to stop the rot.

After a series of calls involving German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, European leaders pledged to push implementation of last month’s deal on the European Financial Stability Facility. Berlusconi announced measures to speed austerity and target a balanced budget in 2013, a year ahead of schedule.

‘Wake-up Call’
Over the longer term, failure by the U.S. to restrain its borrowing may spur diversification out of Treasuries. The bill Obama signed this week was a compromise from Congress that raised the federal borrowing limit while putting off decisions on specific budget cuts or revenue increases.

“This is clearly a wake-up call for the U.S. and those who think a downgrade doesn’t matter are in denial,” said Thomas Lam, Singapore-based chief economist at OSK-DMG, who accurately forecast when the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression would end. “Markets will enforce their disciple if the U.S. doesn’t repair its credit rating.”

S&P kept the outlook for the U.S. grade at “negative,” citing the nation’s political process and criticizing lawmakers for failing to cut spending enough to reduce record budget deficits. The rating may be cut to AA within two years if spending reductions are lower than agreed to, the New York-based rating company said.

S&P currently gives 18 sovereign entities its top ranking, including Australia, Hong Kong and the Isle of Man, according to a July report. The U.K. which is estimated to have debt-to-GDP this year of 80 percent, 6 percentage points higher than the U.S., also has the top credit grade. In contrast with the U.S., its net public debt is forecast to decline either before or by 2015, S&P said in yesterday’s statement.

New Zealand is the only country other than the U.S. that has a AA+ rating from S&P and an Aaa grade from Moody’s. Belgium has an equivalent AA+ grade from S&P, Moody’s and Fitch.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo on canstey@bloomberg.net; Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo on canstey@bloomberg.net

[admin]

Es cierto que Obama estaba advertido, pero realmente cuestiono el timing del asunto, no pudieron elegir otro fin de semana cuando el mercado estuviera al alza, para hacerlo que diferencia hay entre una semana mas o una semana menos, El Dow Jones viene de perde mas del 5% en cinco dias. Se pasaron.

Todavia no he escuchado a ningun democrata acusar a S&P de ser terroristas o racistas todavia (existe la posibilidad) como lo hicieron con los republicanos y el tea party.

Los democratas no aprenden, ahora lloran diciendo que los republicanos tienen la culpa por no haber aceptado subir los impuestos, siguen insistiendo que se deben subir los impuestos.

Yo estoy esperado a ver que dice el papas fritas de Obama, el fresco se ha ido de vacaciones de fin de semana, sabiendo todo lo que esta pasando, ya hay llamados y gritos que regrese para que confronte el asunto y de un mensaje al mundo antes que el mercado abra maniana. Ese es un caradura.

[admin]

El Domingo van a ver comunicados de tous le monde para defender a US.

[PatriPeru]

Yo me pregunto si habra un acuerdo entre las firmas de inversion, sobre todo las que hacen trading para, de manera coordinada, y por que no, tambien a nivel mundial para atenuar la reaccion al downgrade de US. La crisis de Europa esta empeorando, no tiene solucion en el corto plazo y ahora este downgrade de US podria provocar panico innecesario.

Veremos que pasa el Lunes. Obviamente muchos van a querer salir y ahora no solo es el mercado de acciones si no el de bonos, es decir que tendremos volatilidad en la renta variable y la renta fija.

La pregunta es, hasta que punto el mercado digirio la noticia el Viernes, al cierre la bolsa recupero terreno, a pesar del inminente downgrade.

Dos cosas Aguila, uno ya viste lo que paso cuando gano Humala, el Mercado fue suspendido y la pagina de la BVL no habria, la dia siguiente se unieron todos los participantes institucionales, y lograron subir el mercado, esto siempre pasa, el Mercado va intentar ser manipulado, segundo, el Mercado ya estaba descontando durante dias una posible rebaja de la calificacion, no es noticia nueva... estaba casi asumido...

[admin]

La han embarrado en gran forma y brilliante estilo por votar por alguien joven y sin experiencia, a ver si les sale el patriotismo ahora.