Lunes 08/08/11 Semana del Fed

[admin]

-245

[Ed_Alex]

tanto Greenspan como Geithner indican que no habrà double dip

6:40p
Geithner dismisses fears of double-dip downturn

[Ed_Alex]

Geithner keeps up harsh criticism of S&P downgrade
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Sunday criticized Standard and Poor's action to strip the U.S. of its top credit rating, saying the move showed "terrible judgement" and "a stunning lack of knowledge" of U.S. budget policy. Geithner's comments show the Obama administration's anger at S&P has not cooled over the weekend. On Friday, S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill MHP -3.43% , lowered its rating on the U.S. by a notch to AA+ from AAA. The White House has argued the action was based on accounting errors and did not take the recent budget deal increasing the debt ceiling fully into account. S&P has not backed down. In an earlier interview on Sunday, S&P's managing director John Chambers said there is a one in three chance of another reduction in the U.S. credit rating in the next two years. In the NBC interview, Geithner dismissed fears that the U.S. economy would slip into a double-dip recession, saying the economy was resilient.

[Ed_Alex]

futuros -248

INDEX VALUE CHANGE TIME
DJIA INDEX 11,154.00 -248.00 19:08
S&P 500 1,172.20 -25.60 19:08
NASDAQ 100 2,143.25 -43.75

[javier34]

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 21 hrs. 51 mins.
Aug 07, 2011 19:24 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1684.90 - 1685.90
Low/High 1663.40 - 1696.30
Change +21.50 +1.29%
30daychg +140.70 +9.11%
1yearchg +479.20 +39.74%
Charts...


El precio llego hoy a un maximo de US$ 1,696

Admin, a pesar que el oro sigue subiendo, las acciones de buenaventura (BVN) siguen bajando, me convendrá venderlas mañana ?? Que me aconsenjas ?

gracias de antemano.
saludos

javier

[admin]

Los futures bajan, el petroleo se hunde, el oro
sube,

El dollar car 0.8%
U.S. Stock Futures, Oil Plunge on U.S. Debt-Rating Downgrade; Gold Surges

By Rita Nazareth and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Aug 7, 2011 7:08 PM ET


Equity futures sank, signaling the market may extend its worst slump since the bull market began in 2009, while the dollar and oil slid as the loss of America’s top credit rating fueled concern the economic slowdown will worsen. New Zealand and Israeli stocks fell and gold futures rallied to a record $1,697.70 an ounce.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring next month lost 2.3 percent to 1,170.20 at 8:06 a.m. in Tokyo following a two-week slump that dragged the gauge down 11 percent and erased its 2011 gain. The dollar lost 0.8 percent versus the Swiss franc and slipped at least 0.2 percent against the yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars. Oil sank 3.2 percent to $84.14 a barrel in electronic trading. Israel’s TA-25 Index plunged the most in almost 11 years today, with a 7 percent loss led by Discount Investment Corp.
A rebound in the S&P 500 faded on Aug. 5 even before S&P announced the one-level reduction to AA+, as concern grew that the downgrade’s ripple effects will drag on financial markets already reeling from a slowdown in economic indicators. The European Central Bank said it will “actively implement” its bond-purchase program and welcomed Italy and Spain’s efforts to reduce their deficits as the region’s officials added the U.S. downgrade to the agenda of debt-crisis talks. Group of Seven finance officials planned a conference call to discuss credit markets.
‘Cautiously Positioned’
“Investors should be cautiously positioned,” Mohamed A. El-Erian, the chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in an e-mail Aug. 6. Pimco is the world’s largest bond-fund manager. “The downgrade will be a further headwind to growth,” he wrote. “The once-unthinkable loss of the AAA rating will constitute a further hit to already fragile business and consumer confidence.”
More than $5.4 trillion in global equity value has been erased since July 26, according to Bloomberg data, after Europe’s debt crisis worsened, reports on U.S. manufacturing and consumer spending showed the world’s largest economy was slowing and a political impasse over the budget deficit brought the American government to the brink of default.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 267 points, or 2.4 percent, to 11,169.1 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures lost 2.2 percent. New Zeland’s benchmark index tumbled 2.8 percent. Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in September dropped to 9,145 in Chicago, compared with 9,360 in Osaka. The Japanese average lost 5.4 percent last week, the worst loss since the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake.
Investors rushed over the weekend to assess the potential global fallout from the U.S. losing its AAA rating at S&P for the first time.
‘Should Not Panic’
“Investors should not panic,” Charles Reinhard, the New York-based deputy chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, which oversees $1.7 trillion, said in a telephone interview. “The downgrade is a disappointment, but it will be manageable. Underlying all of this we still have attractive equity valuations and good old fashioned profit growth.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that a downgrade would raise the nation’s borrowing costs by $100 billion a year. It would likely increase Treasury yields by 60 basis points to 70 basis points over the “medium term,” JPMorgan’s Terry Belton said on a July 26 conference call hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Societe Generale SA predicted “shock and already shaken confidence in an illiquid market. Brace for turmoil in next few days or weeks,” the French bank’s head of North American research, New York-based Stephen Gallagher, wrote in a note today. SocGen predicted likely downgrades of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan banks as well as clearinghouses and “certain AAA rated insurers.”
No ‘Forced Selling’ at BlackRock
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, issued a statement saying it has been preparing for the downgrade for a month and will not need to do any “forced selling of securities.” The OCC, which clears and settles all trades on U.S. options exchanges, said in a statement it has “no current plans” to adjust valuations for Treasuries used as collateral.
The U.S. Treasury Department said there is “no justifiable rationale” for S&P’s move as global finance ministry officials prepared responses to the historic announcement. S&P’s officials stood by their decision and laid blame on a political system that failed to adequately address deficit reduction in the compromise law that President Barack Obama signed Aug. 2 to avert a default.
Billionaire Warren Buffett said S&P erred when it lowered the U.S. credit rating and reiterated his view that the economy will avoid its second recession in three years. The U.S. merits a “quadruple A” rating, Buffett, 80, said Aug. 6 in an interview with Betty Liu at Bloomberg Television.
‘Their Own Dynamics’
“Financial markets create their own dynamics, but I don’t think we’re facing a double dip recession,” said Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “Clearly what stock markets do have is an effect on confidence, and this sell-off can create a lack of confidence.”
Weekly Plunge
The S&P 500 slumped 7.2 percent last week for its worst plunge since November 2008, during the final four months of the bear market that wiped out 57 percent of the index. Stronger- than-forecast government data on employment growth sparked a 1.5 percent rebound in the index on Aug. 5 before the rally faded as speculation of the reduction in the U.S. rating swirled through the market.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he expects stocks to continue their decline after, even as an S&P official predicted little market impact.
“Considering the momentum in which the market went down over the last week, it is very unlikely, if history is any guide, that this isn’t going to take a while to bottom out,” Greenspan said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program. S&P’s managing director of sovereign ratings, David Beers, said he didn’t expect markets to react significantly when they open.
The two-year Treasury note yield reached a record low of 0.25 percent on Aug. 4 before adding three basis points the following day after the jobs data. Rates on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds decreased to the lowest levels of the year last week. Crude oil and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities erased their 2011 gains.
European Markets
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index of stocks sank 9.9 percent last week, also the worst tumble since November 2008, and is down 18 percent from its 2011 high in February. Italian and Spanish sovereign bond yields have surged since a July 21 European Union summit approved a new aid plan for Greece and measures to aid other euro-region countries. Italian 10-year bond yields are up 76 basis points since, while Spanish yields have gained 33 basis points. The difference between 10-year Italian and German yields reached a record 416 basis points last week.
“It’s in Europe and it’s spreading to the U.S.,” Tim Hartzell, who oversees about $350 million as chief investment officer for Houston-based Sequent Asset Management, said in a telephone interview before U.S. equity futures started trading. “It will mean lower earnings and lower stock prices. The countries that kick the can down the road on their finances like the U.S. will see negative pressure on their currencies.”
Despite the pullback in stocks, chief strategists at 13 banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Barclays Plc and UBS AG see the S&P 500 surging 17 percent through Dec. 31, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Their projection that the index will reach 1,401 hasn’t budged in four weeks.
Concern that the nation will slip back into a recession has overshadowed an earnings season that has seen per-share profit increase 18 percent among the S&P 500 companies that have released quarterly results since July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The slump has left the index trading at 13.1 times reported profit, the cheapest since the month the bull market began in 2009.

[javier34]

Hoy a las 9 pm ( hora de New York) va a ver un programa en CNN en Ingles.

Esperemos que haya buenas noticias.

[Ed_Alex]

Hoy a las 9 pm ( hora de New York) va a ver un programa en CNN en Ingles.

Esperemos que haya buenas noticias.

Yo tambien comprè el viernes, pero recuerda que el martes de la reuniòn de la FED y deberìan de anunciar algo. Incluso hoy al final del dìa anuncien algo.

[javier34]

Hoy a las 9 pm ( hora de New York) va a ver un programa en CNN en Ingles.

Esperemos que haya buenas noticias.

Yo tambien comprè el viernes, pero recuerda que el martes de la reuniòn de la FED y deberìan de anunciar algo. Incluso hoy al final del dìa anuncien algo.

Esperemos que haya buenas noticias, aunque en New York todo puede pasar. El viernes pasado el Dow Jones bajaba, subia, bajaba, subia, bajaba,subia, cosa de locos.

[admin]

El Nikkei -1.4%

[Ed_Alex]

Parece que Obama le ha dado un Red Bull a Geither, está dando con todo a S&P, poniendo en cuestión su reputación.

[Victor VE]

No veo taaan trágica la reacción del mercado en Asia (Indice Nikkei -1.24%).

Y los futuros:
US 30 Sep 11 11220.00 11400.00 11222.00 11079.00 -180.00 -1.58% 0:23:54
US SPX 500 Sep 11 1178.15 1197.25 1178.45 1162.25 -19.10 -1.60% 0:23:54
NQ 100 Sep 11 2154.40 2190.60 2154.90 2126.70 -36.20 -1.65% 0:23:54
US Small Cap 2000 Sep 11 702.10 713.50 702.10 692.50 -11.40 -1.60% 0:23:51

No llegan ni al 2% abajo.

[admin]

Una politica de gastos e impuestos siempre conlleva al declive economico

Este downgrade es la primera de muchas humillaciones si Washington no cambia sus politicas fiscal y economica.

S&P no dijo nada nuevo acerca de la incapacidad de sus politicos para cambiar curso y que su nivel de deuda es insostenible.

Obama al tratar de desprestigiar a S&P solo nos hace quedar peor como los europeos que los culpan por notar lo obvio.

Asi se descuenten los $2 trillones el nivel de deuda esta al 85% lo cual es peligroso. En el 2008 el gasto era solamente 20.7% y la deuda publica 40.3%

Asi es como Obama se ha converted en el downgraded presidente.
REVIEW & OUTLOOKAUGUST 8, 2011
America Gets Downgraded
A spend and tax policy mix always leads to economic decline.

Whatever one thinks of the credit-rating agencies—and we aren't admirers—it serves no good purpose to shoot the fiscal messengers. Friday's downgrade by Standard & Poor's of U.S. long-term debt to AA+ from AAA will be the first of many such humiliations if Washington doesn't change its economic and fiscal policies.

Investors and markets—not any single company's rating—are the ultimate judge of a nation's creditworthiness. And after their performance in fanning the credit and mortgage-security mania of the last decade, S&P, Moody's and Fitch should hardly be seen as peerless oracles.

Their views are best understood as financial opinions, like newspaper editorials, and they're only considered more important because U.S. government agencies have required purchasers of securities to use their ratings. We've fought to break that protected oligopoly, even as liberals in the Senate led by Minnesota's Al Franken have tried to preserve it. Federal bank regulators have been on Mr. Franken's side in this fight, so they can blame themselves in part for S&P's continued prominence.

***
Yet is there anything that S&P said on Friday that everyone else doesn't already know? S&P essentially declared that on present trend the U.S. debt burden is unsustainable, and that the American political system seems unable to reverse that trend.

View Full Image

Getty Images
This is not news.

In that context, the Obama Administration's attempt to discredit S&P only makes the U.S. look worse—like the Europeans who also want to blame the raters for noticing the obvious. Treasury officials and chief White House economic adviser Gene Sperling denounced S&P for relying on a Congressional Budget Office scenario that overestimated the U.S. discretionary spending baseline by $300 billion through 2015 and $2 trillion through 2021.

But even adjusting for that $2 trillion would only reduce U.S. publicly held debt to 85% or so of GDP—still dangerously high. And that assumes that recently agreed upon spending caps are sustained over a decade, something which rarely happens.

We think the larger problem with S&P, Moody's and Fitch is that they make no distinction over how a nation balances its books—whether through tax increases or spending reductions. Like the International Monetary Fund, the raters care only about balance.

This takes too little account of the need for faster economic growth, which is the only real path out of a debt crisis. Britain's government has earned rater approval for its fiscal consolidation, but its increases in VAT and income tax rates are hurting its tepid recovery. Letting the credit raters dictate tax increases is the road to an austerity trap.

The real reason for White House fury at S&P is that it realizes how symbolically damaging this downgrade is to President Obama's economic record. Democrats can rail all they want about the tea party, but Republicans have controlled the House for a mere seven months. The entire GOP emphasis in those seven months—backed by the tea party—has been on reversing the historic spending damage of Mr. Obama's first two years.

The Bush Presidency and previous GOP Congresses contributed to the current problem by not insisting on domestic cuts to finance the cost of war, and by adding the prescription drug benefit without reforming Medicare. But as recently as 2008 spending was still only 20.7%, and debt held by the public was only 40.3%, of GDP.

In the name of saving the economy from panic, the White House and the Pelosi Congress then blew out the American government balance sheet. They compounded the problem of excessive private debt by adding unsustainable public debt.

They boosted federal spending to 25% of GDP in 2009, 23.8% in 2010 (as TARP repayments provided a temporary reduction in overall spending), and back nearly to 25% this fiscal year. Meanwhile, debt to GDP climbed to 53.5% in 2009, 62.2% in 2010, and is estimated to hit 72% this year—and to keep rising. These are all figures from Mr. Obama's own budget office.

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Rather than change direction this year, Mr. Obama's main political focus has been to preserve those spending levels by raising taxes. His initial budget in February for fiscal 2012 proposed higher spending. He then resisted the modest spending cuts that the GOP proposed for the rest of fiscal 2011.

He responded to Paul Ryan's proposal to reform Medicare and Medicaid by calling it un-American and unworthy of debate. In the most recent budget talks, he would only consider small entitlement reforms (cuts in payments to providers) if Republicans agreed to raise taxes. He has refused even to discuss ObamaCare or serious reforms in Medicare and Social Security. Meanwhile, federal payments to individuals continue to grow as a share of all spending, as the nearby chart shows.

This is how you become the Downgrade President.

***
Despite S&P's opinion, there is no chance that America will default on its debts. The real importance of the downgrade will depend on the political reaction it inspires.

If the response is denial and blaming the credit raters, then the U.S. will continue on its current road to more downgrades and eventually to Greece. What has already become a half-decade of lost growth will turn into a lost decade or more.

If the response is to escape the debt trap by the stealth route of inflation—a path now advocated by many of the same economists who promoted the failed spending stimulus of 2009—then the U.S. could spur a dollar crisis and jeopardize its reserve currency status.

The better answer—the only road back to fiscal sanity and AAA status—is to reverse the economic policies of the late Bush and Obama years. The financial crisis followed by the Keynesian and statist revival of the last four years have brought the U.S. to this downgrade and will lead to inevitable decline. The only solution is to return to the classical, pro-growth economic ideas that have revived America at other moments of crisis.

[Victor VE]

Espero que SCCO baje hasta 27-28 para entrar, preciazo. El dividendo me parece bueno.

[admin]

G-7 tomara todas las acciones necesatias para estabilizar a los mercados.