Lunes 08/08/11 Semana del Fed

[admin]

Resumiento, el ECB compra los bonos de los paises problemas: Espana e Italia.

Todo el mundo ha respaldado a la economia de US, el problema es su deuda, pero no su capacidad de hacer sus pagos, eso nadie, absolutamente nadie lo duda. Eso no ha cambiado.

Temor de que el interes que tenga que pagar el consumidor y el pais suba, eso podria causar mas desacelaracion.

Esperando como reacciona US maniana, eso es lo importante. Lo mas probable es que se baje unos cuantos cientos de puntos en la apertura y despues se estabilize.

Oil down 84.22

[admin]

El payaso de Jum Rogers dice que lo de S&P no es noticia, no entiende por que se demoraron tanto, el mercado esta bajando por la economia y por lo que esta pasando en Europa. Esta en el mercado y si baja tendra que cubrir sus shorts, que no quiere, pero no le va a quedar otra.

Fisher: espera mucha volatilidad maniana. (BlackRock)

-222

[admin]

Mccarthy de Jefferies dice que lo que pasa en el mercado es debido a la falta de liderazgo en Europa y US.

US tiene que arreglar su situacion fiscal.

--------

Marcin: piensa comprar aprovechando la debilidad del mercado. Este es un buen momento para comprar.

El Hang Seng -2.80%

-195

Fast Money: uno de ellos quiere ver como se van a comportar los treasuries, si los bonos bajan, dice que va a comprar.

El Nikkei -1.38%

Oil down 84.06,

Cantor Fizgerald, no va a vender, no va a iniciar shorts.

Oportunidades: las hay, hay que escoger, por ejemplo MSFT, WM, etc.

[admin]

El ECB solo tiene $10 billones de capital, de donde van a sacar fondos para rescatar, Francia y Alemania tendran que aportar y tendran que imprimir euros.

VIX up 32

El Shanghai C. -1.01%

-176

[Comodoro]

Los graficos del dia,
.

.

.

.

.

.

[admin]

El Shanghai C. -0.52

-178

Cu down 4.11

[admin]

El G-7 inyectara liquidez.

[admin]

S&P y Obama embarcados en una batalla de credibilidad



ECONOMYAUGUST 8, 2011
Obama and S&P Vie for Credibility
Credit Downgrade Shows Distrust of the Political System and of the Ratings Agencies That Judge How Well It Works

By DAMIAN PALETTA,
CAROL E. LEE and JEANNETTE NEUMANN
The Obama administration and ratings firm Standard & Poor's have embarked on a battle for credibility that could shape the ultimate impact of the U.S. debt downgrade—as well as their own reputations.

Within minutes of Friday's bombshell announcement, both sides launched public fusillades against the other, which continued through the weekend.

White House aides say President Barack Obama views the decision as unjustified, contending that it was based on a flawed process, a message he intends to convey to Americans in coming days. Officials worked the phones and made numerous calls to a range of investors "to mitigate any short-term negative impact," a Treasury official said. They also issued a series of public statements aiming to undercut S&P's analysis, trumpeting a dramatic, last-minute, $2 trillion snafu in the firm's calculations.

View Full Image

Zuma Press, Associated Press, European Pressphoto Agency, Getty Images
S&P officials, meanwhile, took to a rare Saturday conference call and the Sunday morning political talk shows to establish their bona fides, defending their analysis and saying that the prolonged and near-disastrous conclusion of the debt-ceiling talks called into question Washington's ability to function.

The "debacle over the debt ceiling" was one of the factors that led to the downgrade, John Chambers, chairman of S&P's sovereign ratings team said in a conference call with reporters Saturday.

The chaotic scene leading up the downgrade—including six hours of tense phone calls and hastily rewritten press releases—will likely only fuel the controversy.

Neither side can easily claim the high ground. The downgrade laid bare a distrust of both the Washington political system and the independent firms tasked with standing in judgment of it. Ultimately, investors are likely to be responsible for deciding who has more credibility.

For Washington, even though the world's appetite for Treasury debt is expected to remain robust, the downgrade buttresses growing worries about whether political leaders from both parties can adequately tackle their unsustainable debt loads. Many of the biggest debt concerns are fueled by rising health-care costs and an aging population, problems that will become only more acute in the next decade.

S&P, which has been lashed for its miscalculations in assessing mortgage bonds before the financial crisis, finds itself in the lonely position of questioning the riskiness of U.S. debt when rival firms Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have stopped short. David Riley, head of Fitch's sovereign ratings team, said on Saturday that a downgrade by Fitch would be "premature" because the firm is waiting to see the outcome of the committee created by the debt-ceiling bill to hammer out further deficit-reduction measures.

Read More

Ratings Firms Retain Power Over Markets
What Move Means for Everyday Investors
The battle ultimately boils down to these dual questions: Should U.S. Treasurys truly be considered the safest bet in the world, even after leaders have for years wasted opportunities to slow the growth of government debt? Or should S&P be trusted to second-guess the government's ability to pay its bills despite missing the mortgage mess and making a $2 trillion miscalculation in its decision to strip the U.S. of its top-notch triple-A status.

"I think S&P has shown really terrible judgment and they've handled themselves very poorly," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC Sunday. "And they've shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic U.S. fiscal budget math. And I think they drew exactly the wrong conclusion from this budget agreement."

Mr. Geithner also said Sunday he would stay in the administration through the 2012 election, a message that could be meant to assure jittery markets that the administration's top economic-policy maker would remain on board.

Key to the dispute will be both sides' retelling of the critical few hours that led up to S&P's announcement.

At around 2 p.m. Friday, four Treasury officials were huddled in the office of Mary Miller, assistant secretary for financial markets, studying a draft press release S&P officials had sent over explaining their rationale for downgrading the U.S.'s long-term debt. Rumors had swept the market all day that the downgrade is coming. Indeed it was, but the firm had made no public statement.

These numbers look high, acting assistant secretary for economic policy John Bellows told Ms. Miller and others in the room, a person familiar with the matter said. He took the press release back to his office and compared it with other deficit projections, known as "baselines" that he had been studying after the Aug. 2 deal to raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.

Sure enough, Mr. Bellows confirmed, S&P had used an estimate of future deficits that projected U.S. debt to be roughly $2 trillion higher than many others expect by 2021. When he relayed this to his colleagues, they checked the numbers again to make sure they were right and then informed S&P officials.

S&P officials were initially stunned, and said they wanted some time to check their assumptions.

Time was running out. S&P indicated to the Treasury it wanted to make the downgrade public between 4:30 p.m. and 5 p.m. Treasury urged the officials to take more time, perhaps even delay any announcement until Monday while they rethought their decision.

At 5:15 p.m., Treasury officials and their S&P counterparts spoke again. S&P conceded it had used the wrong assumptions when projecting future deficits. The mistake had essentially projected that government spending would grow more rapidly over the next 10 years than many project it actually will under current law.

S&P said, however, that it stood by the decision to go forward with the downgrade. The Treasury team was shocked, and they launched into a number of increasingly blunt and pointed questions, a person familiar with the conversation said.

Is $2 trillion a "material" number, Treasury officials asked? And if this is a change that is materially different than the initial vote, shouldn't the credit committee reconvene?

The S&P team agreed to reconvene their ratings committee on a conference call, with members from North America and Europe dialing in. It again stood by the decision, though the firm rewrote its press release to emphasize not the financial projections, which had been the firm's first focus, but instead its concerns that U.S. political leaders wouldn't be able to make the changes needed to change the path of America's future debt load.

Treasury officials were astonished, asking each other how such a monumental decision—downgrading the U.S. debt for the first time—could be done in a way they felt was so haphazard.

S&P officials call Treasury's reaction a predictable response of a country trying to shoot the messenger.

The Treasury's pushback is "the same you would get from any other country or company," S&P President Deven Sharma said in an interview Saturday. "And our job is to tell the investor: This is where we think the risk is."

White House officials are talking about the downgrade as a non-event generated by second-rate economists at a firm that contributed to the recession. Aides played down Mr. Obama's reaction to the news, saying it was a move the White House long expected.

Mr. Obama was briefed about the downgrade Friday afternoon in the Oval Office by Mr. Geithner and National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling. The president then placed calls to German Chancellor Andrea Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy about the crisis in Europe, during which he mentioned the downgrade.

The reactions of Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Merkel couldn't be learned, neither could the tone of Mr. Obama's conversation.

Around the time the Treasury discovered S&P's mistake, Mr. Obama flew to Camp David, where he was to spend the weekend with family and friends who had come into town for his 50th birthday. The president was informed of the budget mistake, and Messrs. Daley, Geithner and Sperling kept him updated Friday evening with phone calls and emails on the back-and-forth between Treasury officials and S&P's up to the final decision to go ahead with the downgrade.

What followed was a race for the two sides to discredit the each other.

David Axelrod, one of Mr. Obama's chief political advisers, said the president will likely make the case in coming days that "the reliability of the United States debt is undiminished," but that leaders in Washington need to pursue a "balanced" approach to the long-term problem that includes tax increases on the wealthy, while also passing initiatives to generate economic growth in the short-term. Republicans generally oppose that approach, and instead put the emphasis on changes to the U.S. safety net.

[admin]

El Nikkei -1.31%

-208

[Carlos38]

hola amigos que les parece aig a 25 en estos momentos, gracias por sus opiniones

[Victor VE]

Gracias Admin. Veré como se mueve hasta la tarde del lunes, ahi seguro que ya se verá mejor la situación.

[Victor VE]

Market calms after ratings cut shock

Australian stocks have recouped more than half their early losses to trade down 0.7 per cent, with coal miners propping up the market, but investors remain spooked after America's credit rating was downgraded for the first time in its history.
Around midday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 34.4 points, or 0.8 per cent, at 4071, after losing as much as 2.5 per cent at the open, while the broader All Ordinaries Index fell 26.1 points or 0.6 per cent, to 4143.6.
The losses wiped another $10 billion from the market's value, adding to the $100 billion that was shed last week.
For market data by sector, click here
For share price information, click here
For the latest currency movements, click here
Advertisement: Story continues below
The Australian dollar also lost further ground against other currencies, dropping below $US1.04, before staging a modest rebound.
Following the huge losses on global sharemarkets last week amid concern about the strength of the US economic recovery and debt problems in Europe, interest rate futures today point to a rate cut in September.
Across the region, Japan's Nikkei 225 index was off 1.1 per cent in recent trade while New Zealand's top 50 index was off 3 per cent.
Hopes for a bounce on the local sharemarket after the Friday's horror were dashed after Standard and Poor's downgraded United States government debt from AAA to AA+, largely because of the failure of US leaders to reach a consensus on containing the country's spiralling debt.
But Treasurer Wayne Swan said Australia’s economy was in good shape and could cope with the worst the world can throw at it.
‘‘There is not a G20 finance minister who wouldn’t swap places with me in the environment we are in at the moment,’’ he said this morning.
Mr Swan said it was too early make a judgment that the world was facing a second financial crisis. ‘‘We will cross that bridge if we come to it."
Some opportunities seen
CommSec market analyst Juliette Saly said the domestic share market reacted with shock to US government debt being downgraded.
‘‘But investors seem to have calmed down a bit this morning after we saw an initial sellout,’’ Ms Saly said.
Gold stocks fared well after the price of the precious metal hit a new record high of $US1699.70 per ounce, up from $US1651.80 on Friday.
Among gold producers, AngloGold Ashanti was up 9 cents, or 1.1 per cent, at $8.03, Eldorado Gold Corp had added 37 cents, or 2.2 per cent, to $16.97 and Newcrest was 20 cents firmer at $39.40.
Ms Saly said positive corporate news helped to boost the market. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank reported a 41 per cent increase in full year net profit to $342.1 million, but said it expects the market to remain volatile in the period ahead. Shares in the bank were up 9 cents, or 1.12 per cent, at $8.16.
While JB Hi-Fi posted a fall in 2010-11 net profit to $109.70 million, from $118.65 million for the previous financial year, it revealed plans to expand.
‘‘It’s going to open 16 new stores across 2012 and also the dividend they paid to shareholders looked okay, so JB Hi-Fi is bucking the trend in the retail space,’’ Ms Saly said.
JB Hi-Fi shares were up 12 cents at $14.47.
Coal and Allied soars
Coal and Allied shares soared after its largest shareholders, mining giant Rio Tinto and Japan’s Mitsubishi Development, made a conditional, incomplete and non-binding proposal for the shares in the miner they do not already hold. Shares in Coal & Allied had surged $25.90, or 28.5 per cent, to $116.90 while Rio Tinto was down $1.68, or 2.3 per cent, at $70.32.
BHP Billiton eased 60 cents, or 1.6 per cent, to $37.52.
The energy sector also provided a boost, with Woodside up 77 cents, or 2.2 per cent, at $35.32, while Santos was 10 cents firmer at $11.62.
The big four banks were mixed.ANZ was down 12 cents at $18.98, Commonwealth Bank was 34 cents stronger at $46.60, Westpac was 5 cents higher at $19.32 and National Australia Bank was down 18 cents at $21.59.
AAP, Reuters, with BusinessDay


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ ... z1UPB6OrzW


OJO, las mineras auríferas subieron su cotización en la bolsa.

[Victor VE]

El oro subió US$40.

[admin]

-258

Euro up 1.4318

Yields down 2.53%

Au up 1,699.90

[admin]

El Nikkei -2.11%, Hang Seng -4%