Lunes 07/06/10 Europa en focus again.

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

Este foro es posible gracias al auspicio de Optical Networks http://www.optical.com.pe/

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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:31 pm

El nuevo iPhone genera altas expectativas.
Es mas delgado tiene una camara frontal y mas alta resolucion. Se espera que cueste $199 y que se rebaje el precio del 3G a $99.

Se espera alguna sorpresa por parte de Steve Jobs.
TECHNOLOGYJUNE 7, 2010
New iPhone Faces High Expectations
By YUKARI IWATANI KANE And KATE O'KEEFFE
Many details of Apple Inc.'s new iPhone are already widely known, but expectations are high for the fourth-generation smartphone's official unveiling this week at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference.


Francisco Caceres
As he has in the past, Chief Executive Steve Jobs will be kicking off the annual event with a keynote talk on Monday. But unlike in previous years, attendees already know at least part of what to expect, thanks to a report in April by Gawker Media LLC's Gizmodo blog, which published photos and descriptions of a next-generation iPhone found in a Silicon Valley bar.

Apple is expected to unveil a new iPhone that is thinner with a flat back, higher resolution display and a front-facing camera. Apple watchers also expect to see more details about the new iPhone OS 4.0 operating system, the new iAd advertising service for App Store apps and the Game Center social-networking feature.

The Week Ahead

MONDAY
Earnings: Altera, Cascade, Casella Waste.

Shareholder/Investor meetings: Medtronic, Melcom International, Zix.

Apple Worldwide Developers Conference begins in San Francisco.

Copper 2010 mining and refining conference in Hamburg.

TUESDAY
Earnings: Dollar General, Neiman Marcus, Take-Two, Talbots

Shareholder/Investor meetings: Ultralife, Hon Hai Precision.

G2E 2010 Asia gambling conference opens in Macau.

U.S. Senate panel hearing on risk and oil companies' behavior.

WEDNESDAY
Earnings: Analogic, Brown-Forman, Ciena, Inditex, Navistar International, Vail Resorts.

Nissan Motor COO will unveil a new SUV in Yokohama.

Intersolar energy conference begins in Munich.

U.S. Senate panel oversight hearing on antitrust law enforcement.

THURSDAY
Earnings: ArcSight, Del Monte, Express, Lululemon Athletica, National Semiconductor.

Shareholder meetings: China Merchants, Salesforce.com, US Airways.

International Energy Agency releases monthly oil market report.

Global Petroleum Show & Conference, Calgary.

FRIDAY
Earnings: Club Méditerranée, Sun International.

Shareholder meeting: Chesapeake Energy.

2010 Vascular conference of vascular surgeons in Boston.

U.S. retail and food sales report for May.

2010 FIFA Congress in Johannesburg

Analysts believe that the phone will be priced at a similar range as the current iPhone 3GS, which starts at $199, with the iPhone 3GS price cut to $99. Analysts are optimistic that the price, combined with AT&T Inc.'s new data prices, which lower the entry-level monthly service rate, could accelerate demand beyond the strong triple-digit growth the phone has been seeing.

"One of the impediments to smartphone adoption has been the service plan," says Shaw Wu, an analyst for Kaufman Brothers, adding that "when they make a form factor change, it's pretty powerful."

Wall Street expects Apple to sell about 36 million iPhones in its fiscal year ending Sept. 30.

One question remains: What surprise announcement might Mr. Jobs have in store? Mr. Jobs typically likes to present the audience with "one more thing" at the end of his talk, and speculation for this year has ranged from a new MacBook Air or Apple TV digital media receiver to a newly revamped iTunes that give customers more ways to access their content.

Gambling Giants Hold Macau Get-Together
Asia's leading gambling trade show and conference, Global Gaming Expo Asia, kicks off on Tuesday in Macau, the world's largest gambling center and the only place where casino gambling is legal in China. The three-day conference, to be held at the Venetian Macao, attracts a who's who of the gambling industry in Asia, which is rapidly emerging as the primary revenue generator for global gaming companies, such as Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Wynn Resorts Ltd.

Executives from Asia's biggest casino companies and vendors will speak on the future of Macau's Cotai area, the supposed "Las Vegas Strip" of Asia, Singapore's entry into the gambling fray—including the opening of Sands's $5.7 billion casino there in April—and the continuing efforts of Japan's government to legalize casino gambling.

Last year more than 6,000 attended the event, whose sister event G2E is the world's largest gaming trade show and conference and is held annually in November in Las Vegas.

The Week Ahead tracks upcoming corporate events.
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Notapor eduforever » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:31 pm

admin escribió:Lamentablemente los futures estan en rojo y el euro sigue bajando, alli ya tenemos a un sector importante a la baja: energia y minas. Hay que esperar a ver si las cosas mejoran en Wall Street pero el sentimiento es negativo. No se avisoran dias buenos.


Gracias Aguila :roll:
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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:41 pm

Dinero barato por mucho tiempo

El Fed no podra subir los intereses debido a que Europa esta poniendo presion sobre la economia.

Europa esta haciendole el trabajo al Fed. El alto desempleo y la baja inflacion estan haciendo que las probabilidades de un alza de intereses sea mas baja que hace solo unos meses.

La proxima reunion del Fed es el 22-23 de Junio.

Easy Money to Stick Around a While
Fed Unlikely to Raise Rates as Euro-Zone Crisis Keeps Pressure on Economy; Risk of a 'Tail Event'


By JON HILSENRATH
Investors spent much of early 2010 wondering when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would start to tighten financial conditions to rein in the substantial support to the U.S. economy. Instead, Europe is doing the job for him.

European Union debt woes have given Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in Detroit last week, a likely reprieve from having to raise rates.
.Worries about the 16-nation euro zone's financial turmoil has pushed U.S. stocks lower and the dollar higher, made risky debt in the U.S. costlier compared with less-risky debt, inflated interest rates for the short-term loans that banks make to one another and helped slow down the issuance of commercial paper.

As a result of that, along with meager job growth and low inflation, the odds that Mr. Bernanke will soon reverse the easy-money policies that have greased the wheels of the financial system since the crisis began are far smaller than they seemed just a few months ago.

"I don't think economic conditions yet call for it," Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in an interview.

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the latest signs of strain are reinforcing the central bank's cautious economic outlook. "You've got more risk out there of a tail event occurring," he said in an interview.

Experience WSJ professional Editors' Deep Dive: Interest Rate WatchDOW JONES CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT
Most Dealers See Rate Increases a Ways Off
.Dow Jones Capital Markets Report
Eventual Rate Hikes Could Come in Bigger Chunks
.Dow Jones Capital Markets Report
Interest Rates in Commercial Paper Market Rise Again. Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More .Still, the growing pressure on the market isn't severe enough yet to alarm Fed officials. Mr. Bullard said there are powerful offsets to the recent downturn in stock prices and some of the troubles surfacing in credit markets.

For example, the decline in long-term government bond yields is helping to hold down interest rates broadly. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have fallen below 5%, fueling mortgage refinancing.

Mr. Fisher expects the U.S. economy to slow a bit in the second half of 2010 and inflation to remain subdued. Recent strains in financial markets could "take a little bit out" of economic growth, he said Friday. The Dallas Fed chief added that he isn't "overly preoccupied" about it, partly because credit markets aren't showing "too many signs of distress" and stock volatility is normal.

Futures markets see less than a 50-50 chance that the Fed will push the federal funds rate up to 0.5% by December from its current level just below 0.25%. That is a major shift since the beginning of May, when an increase was viewed as almost a sure thing.

Many investors also are backing down from predictions of aggressive Fed action next year. Futures-market prices suggest that investors expect the fed funds rate to hit 0.75% by July 2011. In early April, the market put the rate at more than 1.25%.

.There are plenty of signs of tighter financial conditions. Some efforts to raise capital have been scrapped in the past few weeks. Radiation-monitoring specialist Mirion Technologies Inc. and Smile Brands Group Inc., a provider of support services to dentists, withdrew initial public offerings in late May, while airline operator Allegiant Travel Co. backed away from a $250 million junk-bond sale.

Overall issuance of junk bonds in the U.S. came to a standstill late last month, and interest rates on junk bonds climbed to roughly 2.4 percentage points above Treasury bonds, up from a spread of 1.8 percentage points in April.

Meanwhile, issuance of investment-grade corporate debt slowed to a total of $75.6 billion in April and May, down from the year-earlier $183.6 billion, according to research firm Dealogic.

In the "repo" lending markets where Wall Street banks get short-term loans to finance their securities holdings, activity is down 46% from a year ago, while commercial loans made by banks are down 17.5%.

The next test of the Fed's intentions will come at its meeting June 22-23. So far, with the exception of Thomas Hoenig, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president and an inflation hawk who wants to move quickly, officials have given little indication that they want to start moving toward higher interest rates.

Well before making any move, the Fed would remove language from its policy statement assuring investors that rates will stay very low for an "extended period." So far, Fed officials haven't indicated that they are moving in that direction.

"For the foreseeable future, the Fed is going to keep the 'extended period' language," says Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

A Goldman financial-conditions index, which tracks the combined effect of stock-market moves, interest rates and the dollar, has deteriorated since April.

Its move was equivalent to a half percentage-point increase in the Fed's benchmark federal funds interest rate, Mr. Hatzius says. That has been only partially offset by a decline in oil prices, which put more money into the pockets of Americans.
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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:47 pm

Grandes avances en la lucha contra el cancer.

Los investigadores han reportado notables avances en la guerra contra el cancer este fin de semana, incluyendo tratamientos para el cancer a lso pulmones, ovarios y piel, pero han advertido que la enfermedad continua poniendo grandes obstaculos de costo y complejidad.

El cancer es una enfermedad muy compleja es como la television por cable, antes habian tres canales ahora hay 500.

Advances Come in War on Cancer

By RON WINSLOW And PETER LOFTUS
CHICAGO—Researchers reported notable advances in the war on cancer over the weekend, including treatments for lung, ovarian and skin cancers, but they cautioned that the disease continues to throw up daunting obstacles of cost and complexity.

New data presented at a major cancer conference provided both practice-changing information on the use of current treatments and powerful evidence of the potential for so-called targeted therapies, which attack cancer via genetic targets and other vulnerabilities.

A radiologist checks mammograms at The Elizabeth Center for Cancer Detection in Los Angeles.
The latest advances, however, typically involve expensive drugs that will require difficult choices by doctors, patients and insurers amid growing concern over health-care costs.

They also underscore the growing realization that cancer is not a single disease or even a single disease within each location in the body—say, breast, brain or lung. The more scientists know about genes, proteins and pathways that drive cancer, the more complex a disease it becomes.

"Cancer is like cable television," says George Sledge, a breast-cancer expert at Indiana University and newly elected president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, which hosted the cancer meeting. "Thirty years ago you had three channels. Now you have 500."

The challenge for cancer researchers increasingly is to match the right drug with the right channel.

Sometimes that means going after a tumor directly, aided by genetic anomalies that make a tumor resistant to treatment in one patient but sensitive to it in another.

In one tantalizing example at the meeting, researchers said a drug being developed by Pfizer Inc., called crizotinib, caused tumors to shrink or stabilize in 90% of 82 lung-cancer patients specially recruited for the study because they had an alteration in a gene known as ALK.

More
Two Drugs Appear to Surpass Landmark Novartis Leukemia Treatment
Proposed Eisai Chemotherapy Drug Helps Treat Advanced Breast Cancer
Study: Avastin Slows Ovarian Cancer
Eisai Drug Found to Prolong Life With Breast Cancer
Amgen Drug Shown to Delay Fractures in Cancer Patients
New Pfizer Drug Shrinks Some Lung-Cancer Tumors
Cost of Cancer Care Rises
.Tumors shrank more than 30% in 57% of the patients. While there wasn't a control arm in the study, researchers said the participants had undergone several previous treatments. Normally just 10% of such patients not screened for this genetic anomaly would have been expected to register a response to the treatment.

Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death among men and women, but only a 4% of the 220,000 Americans diagnosed with the disease each year have the genetic anomaly—or roughly 10,000 patients.

That significantly reduces the size of the potential lung-cancer market for the study, but it is larger than many other cancers.

Pfizer has already begun a larger study of the drug focusing on those patients to determine whether the drug will help prolong survival.

In another study, Roche Holding AG's drug Avastin, which works by starving tumors of their blood supply, extended the time women with ovarian cancer survived without progression of their disease by four months, to 14 months, when continued for up to two years after a regimen that included Avastin and chemotherapy together.

Ovarian is a particularly deadly cancer for women. Roche said the results were among the first to show a benefit for long-term use of Avastin.

But Avastin in the U.S. costs up to $56,000 a year, and such findings are certain to raise the question whether the benefit is worth the price.

"We have to think about the cost of therapy in the same way we think about long-term side effects," said Jennifer Obel, an oncologist at North Shore University Health System in Illinois.

The latest findings underscore the growing realization that cancer is not a single disease or even a single disease within each location in the body—say, breast, brain or lung.

The more scientists know about genes, proteins and pathways that drive cancer, the more complex a disease it becomes.

Another advance came in a study of a drug called ipilimumab, being developed by Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., that works not by attacking the tumor but by activating the body's immune system to go after the cancer.

In a study of 676 patients with an advanced stage of the deadly skin cancer melanoma, patients taking the medicine lived an average of 10 months compared with 6.5 months for those taking a cancer vaccine called gp100.

The findings reflect growing interest in a variety of approaches to marshal the body's immune system in the fight against cancer.

Bristol-Myers expects to file for marketing approval with the Food and Drug Administration later this year and is studying the medicine in other cancers.

But such advances have been offset by setbacks described in research at the meeting and in other recent findings that illustrate cancer's complexity.

A study of Eli Lilly & Co'.s Erbitux is one example. Two years ago, researchers found that Erbitux improved survival in patients with colon cancer that had spread or metastasized, as long as they had a normal copy of a gene called KRAS.

The expectation was that the drug would also have a benefit earlier in the disease process, for patients with the same normal KRAS gene whose cancer hadn't yet spread.

But a 1,760-patient study found no survival advantage for patients given Erbitux plus chemotherapy, compared with those given chemotherapy alone. "Maybe early-stage colon cancer is a different disease than late-stage disease," Dr. Obel observed.

In another case, Pfizer's Sutent, a significant advance in the treatment of kidney cancer when it came out in 2006, failed in studies presented at the meeting to improve a measure of survival in breast-cancer patients. The company continues to study the medicine in other tumors, including those in the lung and prostate.

The hope was that each of these targeted treatments, which block markers present in a variety of tumor types, would prove successful against more types of cancers.

Roche executives were pleased with newly demonstrated benefits of Avastin in ovarian cancer.

The drug is already approved in certain patients with breast, colorectal, kidney, brain and lung cancer. Nevertheless, in previous studies, Avastin didn't improve outcomes in early-stage colon cancer nor in prostate cancer.

The advances "bring hope, but they also remind us that we need to remain humble in this fight against cancer," said Pascal Soriot, chief operating officer of Roche Group's pharmaceutical business. "It's going to take time and a lot of money before we get a cure."

A decade ago, a drug called Gleevec from Novartis SA electrified the cancer world with its ability to all but cure a deadly form of leukemia thanks to its effect on an aberrant gene known as the Philadelphia chromosome.

It helped transform cancer research into a hunt for genes and other biomarkers that might direct drug development and guide doctors in selecting treatments for their patients.

At the meeting, study data showed that two second-generation drugs—Sprycel from Bristol-Myers Squibb and Tasigna, also from Novartis—outperformed Gleevec in certain measures of treating chromic myelogenous leukemia.

Assuming the drugs, now approved for patients who fail on Gleevec, gain approval for first-line treatment, physicians and patients will have alternatives to one of cancer's iconic drugs.

Gleevec "was such a revolutionary step," says Robert Mayer, vice president for academic affairs at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston. "It is encouraging that we can find ways to improve the product."

Meantime, the hunt for other strategies for matching drugs to targets continues in earnest.

Among them: Researchers are beginning to use the ability to unravel the genetic sequence of tumors to determine which pathways are active no matter where they're located in the body.

Then they plan to match the patients with already approved drugs, no matter what type of cancer they're on the market for.

—Jennifer Corbett Dooren contributed to this article.
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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:52 pm

Futures cu down 2.7460

Futures Dow Jones -0.85%

-85

Yields 3.17%


El Shanghai C. -2.21%
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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:53 pm

Euro down 1.1906
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Notapor admin » Dom Jun 06, 2010 10:54 pm

El Nikkei -3.64%, el Hang Seng -2.41%, Korea -2.47%, Australia -2.96%
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Notapor eduforever » Lun Jun 07, 2010 1:16 am

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Notapor eduforever » Lun Jun 07, 2010 2:40 am

INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME
ESTX 50 € Pr 2,519.40 -34.19 -1.34% 03:06
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,068.18 -57.82 -1.13% 03:07
CAC 40 INDEX 3,404.49 -51.12 -1.48% 03:07
DAX INDEX 5,878.50 -60.38 -1.02% 03:06
IBEX 35 INDEX 8,772.00 -151.40 -1.70% 03:06
FTSE MIB INDEX 18,419.37 -315.36 -1.68% 03:06
AEX-Index 316.70 -4.52 -1.41% 03:07
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 972.97 -15.49 -1.57% 03:22
SWISS MARKET INDEX 6,263.08 -35.89 -0.57% 03:06


More Europe/Africa/Middle East Indexes


Asia/Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 9,520.80 -380.39 -3.84% 02:29
HANG SENG INDEX 19,360.20 -419.87 -2.12% 03:07
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,325.90 -123.50 -2.78% 02:37
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Notapor eduforever » Lun Jun 07, 2010 2:43 am

Copper June 07,03:41
Bid/Ask 2.7686 - 2.7731
Change -0.0612 -2.16%
Low/High 2.7527 - 2.8389
Charts
Nickel June 07,03:40
Bid/Ask 7.9772 - 8.0225
Change -0.1882 -2.31%
Low/High 7.8411 - 8.2130
Charts
Aluminum June 07,03:34
Bid/Ask 0.8116 - 0.8161
Change -0.0181 -2.19%
Low/High 0.8047 - 0.8365
Charts
Zinc June 07,03:40
Bid/Ask 0.7069 - 0.7115
Change -0.0249 -3.41%
Low/High 0.6979 - 0.7432
Charts
Lead June 07,03:39
Bid/Ask 0.6965 - 0.7010
Change -0.0113 -1.60%
Low/High 0.6829 - 0.7146
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Notapor eduforever » Lun Jun 07, 2010 2:57 am


Zinc Smelters Idle Capacity on Price Slump, Gao Says (Update2)



June 07, 2010, 2:22 AM EDT



By Glenys Sim

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Zinc smelters in China, the world’s largest producer, have idled as much as 8.8 percent of capacity as prices decline and the nation bids to cool the property market, curbing demand, according to Shanghai Metals Market.

About 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons of the country’s 5.7 million tons of annual capacity have been suspended on output cuts and maintenance shutdowns, Monica Gao, an analyst at the researcher and data provider, said by phone from Shanghai. Gao has studied China’s zinc market for almost three years.

China is the world’s consumer of the metal used to galvanize steel, and Gao’s estimate adds to signs that the government’s drive to prevent a property bubble is hurting demand for commodities used in construction. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, has slumped 17 percent this year.

“Demand hasn’t been good this year,” Gao said on June 4. “Some of the smaller producers have brought forward their planned maintenance to help alleviate cost pressures and reduce the inventories they have on hand.”

Zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has lost 35 percent this year, tumbling to as low as 13,900 yuan ($2,035) a ton today, while London prices have shed 38 percent to $1,586.25 a ton, the worst base-metal performer. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai exchange were 295,454 tons last week, the highest level since futures started trading in 2007.

‘Cool the Economy’

“Domestic prices are being affected by a slowdown in demand because of the government’s measures to cool the economy,” said Cao Jie, an analyst at China International Futures Co. (Beijing). “They are also being dragged lower by international prices, which have been affected by what’s happening in Europe,” said Cao, referring to the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Shares of Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., China’s largest zinc maker, have lost 38 percent this year as first-quarter profit plunged 73 percent on the lower prices. The stock fell as much as 4.7 percent today as Asian equities dropped on concern that the European debt crisis may derail the global recovery.

Zinc “prices are falling because consumption, which grew more than 10 percent to 4.2 million tons last year, has been weak,” Gao said. “We’re expecting this year’s consumption growth to be capped at 10 percent.” Zinc consumption in China expanded by 18 percent to more than 4.7 million tons last year, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

Reserve Requirements

Property sales in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped as much as 70 percent in May as developers delayed offerings after government tightening measures, the Shanghai Securities News said June 1. Chinese authorities have boosted banks’ reserve requirements three times this year and introduced real-estate curbs to cool lending and speculation.

“We expect further output cuts by smelters that have to acquire concentrate,” said Gao, referring to the semi-processed ore that’s used to make the refined metal. The concentrate market has tightened as domestic mines withhold supplies because of the slump in refined-zinc and zinc-product prices, Gao said.

“The bigger producers, with their own mines, are a lot more resilient,” she said. “We saw them continue to produce even when prices fell to about 8,000 yuan in 2008.” Futures touched a low of 8,380 yuan a ton that year as the global recession slashed demand and investors cut commodity holdings.

The shortage of concentrate has seen processing fees, paid by Chinese miners to smelters for making metal from semi- processed ore, fall to about 5,000 yuan per ton for spot zinc concentrate, from 5,500 to 5,800 yuan a month ago, she said.

China’s imports of refined zinc shipments dropped 71 percent in the first four months of this year compared with the same period last year, according to customs data. Shipments last year, buoyed by the country’s $586 billion stimulus program, rose to 670,182 tons, three and a half times more than 2008.
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Notapor admin » Lun Jun 07, 2010 6:42 am

Los futures del Dow Jones por lo menos no estan a la baja. Estan dos puntos al alza.

Au down 1,215, oil down 71.22, euro up 1.1957

El euro ha mejorado, las bolsas de Europa estan a la baja pero mas estables. El Asia cerro profundamente a la baja.

BP logra parar el derrame, eso es muy positivo para el sector energia.

Yields up 3.23%

Libor igual 0.54%
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Notapor admin » Lun Jun 07, 2010 6:43 am

Copper June 07,07:38
Bid/Ask 2.7981 - 2.8026
Change -0.0318 -1.12%
Low/High 2.7527 - 2.8389
Charts

Nickel June 07,07:39
Bid/Ask 8.2153 - 8.2607
Change +0.0499 +0.61%
Low/High 7.8411 - 8.3378
Charts

Aluminum June 07,07:38
Bid/Ask 0.8138 - 0.8184
Change -0.0159 -1.91%
Low/High 0.8047 - 0.8365
Charts

Zinc June 07,07:32
Bid/Ask 0.7160 - 0.7205
Change -0.0159 -2.17%
Low/High 0.6979 - 0.7432
Charts

Lead June 07,07:38
Bid/Ask 0.7078 - 0.7124
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 0.6829 - 0.7192
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Notapor admin » Lun Jun 07, 2010 6:45 am

FAS +2.35%

BP +2.63%

DRN +4.07%

EDC +0.83%
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Notapor admin » Lun Jun 07, 2010 6:47 am

Las dudas sobre la economía mundial se vuelven a apoderar de los mercados

Por Mark Gongloff y Marcus Walker

Los mercados se preparan para otra semana complicada a medida que los ministros de finanzas del mundo alistan nuevas defensas para evitar que la crisis de deuda soberana se propague. Esto, después de que las decepcionantes cifras del desempleo de mayo en Estados Unidos divulgadas el viernes y la aparición de problemas en Hungría convencieron a muchos inversionistas de que pecaban de un exceso de optimismo.

Aunque muchos inversionistas dudan que EE.UU. sufra una recaída, temen que el crecimiento se debilite una vez se agote el efecto del estímulo fiscal, lo que limitaría la apreciación en los precios de activos como acciones y bonos.

"Nos hemos estado preguntando cómo nos afecta la situación europea", dice Guy LeBas, estratega de renta fija para Janney Capital Markets. "Y ahora, aparte de eso, nos preguntamos cómo va la recuperación orgánica en EE.UU.".

Los precios de las acciones y los bonos de empresas se derrumbaron el viernes, después de que el Departamento de Trabajo informara que el crecimiento del empleo no agrícola en mayo fue muy inferior a lo previsto. El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones sufrió su tercer mayor declive en lo que va del año, un descenso de 3,2% que lo dejó en 9.931,97 puntos, su nivel más bajo desde inicios de febrero.

Temores exagerados

Los mercados también fueron afectados por un nuevo brote de ansiedad acerca de la deuda de los países europeos, en esta ocasión motivado por los problemas de Hungría, que arrastró al euro por debajo de 1,20 unidades por dólar por primera vez en más de cuatro años.

En momentos en que los gobiernos europeos prometen medidas de austeridad para calmar a los inversionistas, la preocupación es que este ajuste de cinturón descarrile la recuperación de la economía global.

Sin embargo, el cronograma y la magnitud de los recortes fiscales varían ampliamente y se pueden distinguir al menos tres grupos de países.

El primero, constituido por Grecia, España, Portugal e Irlanda, no tiene más remedio que emprender severas medidas de austeridad.

Gran Bretaña e Italia, que pronto podrían sentir la presión de los mercados, están reduciendo sus déficits de manera paulatina.

Un tercer grupo, compuesto por el corazón de las economías de la zona euro en torno a Alemania y Francia, ha optado por seguir la oración de San Agustín: "Señor, dame castidad, pero no ahora". Las advertencias de dolor y austeridad lanzadas por la canciller alemana Angela Merkel y el presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy no ocultan el hecho de que ambos países, así como sus vecinos más pequeños, contemplan un alza de sus déficits fiscales este año.

La mayoría de los economistas estima que los planes de austeridad fiscal europeos son demasiado tímidos para frenar la recuperación de la economía global. "Alemania se sigue relajando, España se está ajustando, Italia es neutral. Parece lo indicado", manifiesta Greg Fuzesi, economista de J.P. Morgan en Londres.

Cuestión de velocidad

Sin embargo, cerca de la mitad de la corrección del viernes es atribuible al informe de empleo en EE.UU., estima LeBas. "Los clientes, y nosotros mismos, cuestionamos la sostenibilidad de una recuperación económica en la cual los empleos se están recuperando a un ritmo muy lento", señala.

Los agitados inversionistas redujeron su exposición a acciones, bonos corporativos, materias primas y monedas como el euro y se refugiaron en los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense y el dólar.

El informe del viernes sirve como recordatorio de lo que Europa y EE.UU. tienen en común: la poderosa influencia de los gobiernos en el crecimiento económico. Los efectos del estímulo fiscal en EE.UU. se disiparán en la parte final del año y parece improbable que el gobierno emprenda una nueva ronda de estímulo fiscal si se toma en cuenta la creciente deuda del país, que rivaliza con la de varios países europeos.

Aunque EE.UU. aún cosecha los frutos de las bajas tasas de interés, la Reserva Federal no tiene margen para seguir bajando las tasas de interés de corto plazo. La economía, por ende, tiene que empezar a expandirse por su cuenta y los inversionistas dudan de su capacidad para lograrlo.

"La recuperación tiene forma de U y hemos gastado mucho dinero" en su reactivación, indica Doug Roberts, estratega jefe de inversión de Channel Capital Research. "¿Qué pasa cuando se acaba el combustible?". Esta clase de preocupaciones no son nuevas, pero el informe de empleo del viernes las puso de nuevo a la orden del día.

"Una pregunta clave es: ¿qué parte del crecimiento que hemos experimentado se debe al estímulo fiscal?", señala Jason Brady, gestor de portafolio para Thornburg Investment Management. "La cifra del empleo representa una especie de microcosmos de eso".

De todos modos, un mes no constituye una tendencia. Muchos economistas esperan una recuperación, con altibajos, del mercado laboral estadounidense durante el resto del año. La mayoría de los economistas, asimismo, estima que las probabilidades de una recaída este año son muy bajas.

Barclays Capital, por ejemplo, revisó el viernes al alza su proyección de crecimiento de la economía estadounidense para cuatro de los próximos cinco trimestres. Además, el banco británico aplazó la fecha en que esperan que la Fed empiece a subir las tasas de interés.
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