Martes 09/08/11 La decision del Fed (operation twist)

[admin]

Korea -8.62%

[Maricielo]

Resumiendo

Brasil y Australia en mercado Bear....saben si Shangai ya entró en oso perezoso??

[admin]

Esta esta buenisima:

Obama debe dejar de tratar de desarmar la alarma del incendio y empezar a apagar el incendio.

Consejo que obama no siguio durante su sermon el Lunes, en su lugar aumento mas lenia al fuego, culpando a los republicanos y a S&P por el downgrade. Repitio que los dos partidos deben trabajar juntos y la misma agenda de mayores impuestos y mas gasto del gobierno reavivara a la economia y restaurara la estabilidad financiera.

El Dow Jones no se hizo esperar y bajo mas de 100 puntos.

Para ponerlo en terminos del mercado, una de las mas audaces apuestas politicas en la historia de US. Reventar el balance del pais asumiendo que ellos podrian cubrir los gastos con mayores impuestos despues. Pero los negocios y los consumidores no tomaron la apuesta muy bien, la economia no se recupero como Obama y su equipo prometio, y el tea party y las elecciones del 2010 interrumpieron la tarjeta de credito de los democratas (liberales-izquierdistas)


A Downgrade Awakening
Amid the market wreckage, signs of a political turn

During yesterday's market meltdown, an old friend shot us an email: "The Obama adm needs to stop trying to disarm the fire alarm and start trying to put the fire out."

Good advice that, not that President Obama followed it during his midday remarks at the White House. Instead, he poured on some lighter fluid, blaming Republicans and Standard & Poor's for S&P's credit downgrade while remonstrating that both parties nonetheless had to work together. He also repeated his familiar agenda that more spending now and higher taxes later will fire up the economy and restore America's financial standing.

The Dow promptly fell another hundred points before tumbling 5.5% on the day. It was ugly out there. The S&P downgrade was a psychological shock, a slap in the face, and markets are naturally in for a rough ride.

***
But we think it's also worth stepping back from the daily turmoil to look at the larger picture. To wit, the current U.S. debt debate isn't a sign of American political "dysfunction," despite what S&P, the Chinese (see below) and various sages are saying. It's a sign that we're finally beginning to comprehend and correct the problem. The process will be messy, as democracy always is, but the brawling is a sign of progress.

Let's recall how we arrived at this crossroads. A credit mania of several years that no one wanted to end suddenly turned into a financial panic in 2008. In their anxiety, and with Republicans holding the White House but having no explanation, the voters turned to the candidate who seemed coolest under fire. Though relatively unknown, Barack Obama was at least promising "hope and change."

Upon taking office, Mr. Obama proceeded to unleash the entire liberal economic and social policy arsenal in the name of ending the panic. Whether or not these were his own convictions, the President allowed the Pelosi Congress to use that rare political opening—and 60 Senate Democrats—to pursue a 40-year wish list.

And pursue it Democrats did. To an economy recovering from excessive private leverage, they poured on trillions in new public spending and debt. Amid a financial system suffering from a nervous breakdown, they castigated bankers for causing the panic and then added 2,000 pages of new rules. They spent nearly two years redesigning one-sixth of the economy to realize their ambitions for national health care. They unleashed regulators to rewrite the nation's energy and labor laws.

It was, to put it in market terms, one of the most audacious political bets in U.S. history. Blow out the national balance sheet on the assumption that they could cover the bet later with tax increases. But business and consumers didn't take well to the political beating, the economy didn't recover as promised, and the tea party and the 2010 elections rudely interrupted to yank the liberal credit card.

The clamor and tumult of the last year are the sound of Americans slowly figuring out what has happened to them. The country and financial markets are concluding that the policy solutions imposed on them for three years haven't worked. This is inevitably a painful awakening.

Americans are also reaching conclusions about the supposedly cool hand they elected in 2008. Maybe he isn't the leader they had hoped he would be. Voters are always reluctant to reach such a judgment because they want a President to succeed. They identify his success with the country's. This is why they give Presidents a chance to change course even after a midterm election rebuke, as they did with Bill Clinton.

But President Obama has not seemed able to adapt to this shift in his political circumstances and the public mood. He does not admit mistakes easily, if at all.

As his remarks last week and yesterday showed, his economic agenda is more of the same, only less: more jobless benefits in the name of spurring job creation; an extension of the temporary payroll tax cut that has coincided with rising unemployment. Trade bills that he could have, and should have, passed two years ago. Tax increases or no bipartisan debt bargain.

While claiming to stand for a "balanced" debt deal, he allows only tinkering around the edges of Social Security and Medicare, and he refuses even to discuss ObamaCare, which is more unpopular than on the day it passed. For millions of Americans, Mr. Obama's cool has begun to look like ideological stubbornness and political detachment.

Such public recognition is the beginning of the American system correcting its mistakes. Unlike S&P, we welcome the shouting. We'd be far more worried if the country were quiet amid its rising debt burden and accepted Washington's familiar answers, the way the Japanese have tolerated two decades of malaise.

The downgrade uproar and even the market turmoil are signs that Americans aren't about to accept economic decline gracefully. To adapt a famous phrase, a debt crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

[Ed_Alex]

Estimada Admin / foristas?

cuál consideran que sería el mejor portafolio en estos momentos?

[Victor VE]

Estimada Admin / foristas?

cuál consideran que sería el mejor portafolio en estos momentos?

100% cash.

[Ed_Alex]

Aviso: Negro Lo Tumbo anunciando gira por el asia, ya se tumbó DJ, Hang seng, Australi, Nikkei y vienen más ...... agárrense

NIKKEI 8,694.31 -403.25 -4.43%
TOPIX 746.52 -36.34 -4.64%
HANG SENG 19,218.20 -1,272.39 -6.21

[Maricielo]

El negro Lo Tumbo es Obama?

[Victor VE]

The Day After: Stay Away From Gold, Treasuries; Buy Solid Blue-Chip Stocks

On the first trading day after Standard & Poor's historic downgrade of the United States' credit rating, investors are left with one very big question on their lips: What do we do now?

Within an hour of opening, the Dow had already fallen nearly 400 points, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were down even more in percentage terms. Gold soared by more than $50 per ounce to new all-time highs as investors ran for cover.

But perhaps most interesting is the action in the Treasury market. Treasuries were downgraded by Standard & Poor's. In a normal world, this would cause yields to rise, as investors would demand a higher yield in response to lower credit quality. Yet in the upside-down world of today's market, yields instead fell. Investors sell off their stock positions due to the bond rating downgrade…and then promptly plow their money into downgraded bonds. The 10-year Treasury now yields 2.39%.

Before you despair, keep a couple important things in mind: Nothing fundamentally has changed in the economy. It was bad before the announcement, and it is still bad today. But S&P's announcement changes nothing. The Federal Reserve has said that it will continue to accept U.S. Treasuries as collateral and that, as far as the Fed was concerned, Treasury debt still counts as AAA for the purposes of bank capital requirements. In other words, the people that run the international banking system don't appear to be all that worried.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has taken unprecedented steps to stop the contagion that many feared would spread to Italy and Spain. The ECB has broken from tradition and gone on a buying spree of Spanish and Italian debt. This should be enough to avert a new round of crisis, at least for the time being.

Still, investors are scared, and the markets are in free-fall. Given this sense of chaos, what are investors to do?

Here are a few suggestions:

Stay out of Treasuries. Do I think that the U.S. government is at risk of default? Absolutely not. I have no doubt that the bonds will be paid. But at a pitiful 2.39%, investors are locking in a cash return that is almost sure to disappoint - and almost certainly capital losses to boot. When the markets return to some semblance of normal, yields will rise back to a more sensible range of 3-4%. That means that investors buying today at 2.39% will see their "safe" Treasuries decline in value. More adventurous traders might want to short Treasuries in the futures markets or using an inverse ETF like the iShares Short Treasury Bond Fund (SHV).

Stay out of gold. I understand the argument that gold is insurance against capital market instability. I get that. But would you buy insurance on your home after it had already burned down? Or on your car after it had already been totaled?

In the real world of insurance, no agent would sell you a policy after the event has already happened, but in the financial world "agents" are all too happy to do so. Remember, gold has no "intrinsic value" as it pays no income and has no earnings. So, it is impossible to ever say whether gold is "cheap" or "expensive." All we can say is that gold has been in a raging bull market for over a decade, and that its price action is starting to look like a lot of other financial bubbles we've seen in the past.

If you missed out on gold's recent gains, you're probably kicking yourself. Don't. Once the dust settles, it is likely to be the gold bugs who are kicking themselves. I recommend avoiding gold, but more adventurous traders might want to short it, like Treasuries, in the futures market or using an inverse fund like the PowerShares DB Double Short Gold Fund (DZZ)

Use this as an opportunity to buy some of the solid blue chips you've been itching to buy "if only they were a little cheaper." I recommend American and European companies with rock-solid balance sheets, consistent dividends, and a large presence in emerging markets. These are the kinds of companies that you know will survive this mess intact. If you end up being a little early, what of it? If you buy a good company at a good price, a little short term volatility is nothing to be afraid of.

Some stocks to consider: Nestlé (NSRGY), Unilever (UL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC).

I should mention that Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson now have a higher credit rating than the United States of America!

I understand that it is scary out there. But it is times like this when an investor can differentiate him or herself by taking a bold, contrarian stand. Use the current mood of hysteria to your advantage. Sell down your expensive bond and gold holdings and reallocate your funds where you can find real, durable value.

[Victor VE]

Admin, me parece o les han prohibido a los comentaristas económicos no comprar acciones que mencionen en sus artículos? todos se estan cuidando las espaldas (algunos mencionan 72 horas).

[Victor VE]

Aviso: Negro Lo Tumbo anunciando gira por el asia, ya se tumbó DJ, Hang seng, Australi, Nikkei y vienen más ...... agárrense

NIKKEI 8,694.31 -403.25 -4.43%
TOPIX 746.52 -36.34 -4.64%
HANG SENG 19,218.20 -1,272.39 -6.21

Qué mela hace por alla??? será porque lo quieren lejos a ese inutiL??

[admin]

Es Obama inteligente?

Un caso de estudio en stupid is as stupid does

El avion era grande, moderno, y considerado uno de lso mas seguros en el mundo. Pero esa noche habia una tormenta, la turbulencia era extrema y los indicadores dela velocidad del viento no estaban funcionando muy bien. Peor los pilotos no eran muy competentes. Cundio el panico, perdio velocidad en lugar de aumentarla. Todo acabo en minutos.

Esto es lo que esta pasando con la presidencia de Obama.

Cuando hablamos de pilotear, Obama parece que s el equivalente a Charles Lindbergh, Chuck Yeager y en "Fly Me to the Moon" mas o menos como - Nat King Cole se convirtio en uno: "Yo creo que lo que yo escribo es mejor que los que escriben mis escritores, "Se mas de las politicas en cualquier caso que muchos de mis directores politicos y son un mejor directo politico que mi director politico"

Igual que Obama diciendo en el 2004. So soy LeBron, baby, yo puedo jugar a este nivel, tengo juego.

Por supuesto, es tentador no ser modesto, cuando tus admiradores son tan poco modesto como tu. Cuantas veces he escuchado a Obama decir que el es el presidenten pas inteligente de la historia. Aun cuando el es criticado, sus fracasos son usualmente causados por su supuesta brillantez. Los liberales dicen que el es cerebral, muy cerebral para la politica de Washington; conservadores dicen que todo esto esta hecho a proposito para convertir al pais en una combinacion de Finlandia, Cuba y Saudi Arabia.

Yo no creo eso, yo creo que el presidente no es muy inteligente.

Socrates ensenio que la inteligencia empezaba con el reconocimiento de lo poco que sabiamos. Obama intenta decirnos de manera perpetua lo mucho que el sabe. Aristoteles escribio que el tipo de inteligencia que mas se necesita en la politica es la prudencia, lo cual require experiencia. Obama vino sin experiencia. Plutarch advirio que el ser arrogante crea un obstaculo y pestilencia a las grandes casas y asuntos. Hoy dia la Casa Blanca, mas que nunca en su memoria, esta llena de arrogantes y creidos.

El Obama politico, hace predicciones que no se cumplen, hace promesas que no cumple, aumenta las expectativas que nunca se cumplen. Reniega de sus obligaciones en privado. Rinde posiciones en publico. Esta ausente de los asuntos que son los mas importantes de una presidencia. Esta demasiado metido en asuntos donde deberia estar ausente. En la cumbre del panico financiero en 1907 Teddy Roosevelt por lo menos tuvo el buen sentido comun de dejar a JP Morgan que se haga cargo de la crisis. No este presidente, cada vez que abre la boca el sustrae de la suma total del capital financiero.

Y esta su habito de nunca enmendar errores. Cuando Bill Clinton fue derrotado en el seguro de salud, el se fue al centro, paso la reforma de beneficencia. Cuando la guerra en Iraq parecia estar perdida, G. W. Bush despidio a Don Rumsfeld y ordeno mas tropas.

Obama en contraste, parece creer que esta inmune al error. Quizas esa sea la explicacion por mantener a Geithner. Tambien explica su insulto y habito al sugerir no importa que se hable del seguro de salud, de la paz en el Medio Oriente, o el cambio en el que podemos creer que la culpa siempre la tienen los que no escuchan atentamente a lo que el dice. No es eso. En politica, el fracasar e comunicar el mensaje es siempre el error del comunicador.

Los medios se pasaron casi toda la decada pasada criticando la manera de hablar de Bush, la ignorancia de Sarah Palin y la estupidez de Rick Perry. Nada es mas tipico de esas mentes que atacar las deficiencias intelectuales de los que ellos considerar menos inteligentes y considerablemente mas exitosos.

Pero en realidad, ser inteligente es entender que la confianza en si mismo no es suficiente para probar la genuina inteligencia. Estupidos hacen estupideces, dijo el gran filosofo Forrest Gump. La presidencia de Obama es un caso de estudio de un estupido que hace estupideces.
Write to bstephens@wsj.com





Is Obama Smart? A case study in stupid is as stupid does.

By BRET STEPHENS

The aircraft was large, modern and considered among the world's safest. But that night it was flying straight into a huge thunderstorm. Turbulence was extreme, and airspeed indicators may not have been functioning properly. Worse, the pilots were incompetent. As the plane threatened to stall they panicked by pointing the nose up, losing speed when they ought to have done the opposite. It was all over in minutes.

Was this the fate of Flight 447, the Air France jet that plunged mysteriously into the Atlantic a couple of years ago? Could be. What I'm talking about here is the Obama presidency.

When it comes to piloting, Barack Obama seems to think he's the political equivalent of Charles Lindbergh, Chuck Yeager and—in a "Fly Me to the Moon" sort of way—Nat King Cole rolled into one. "I think I'm a better speech writer than my speech writers," he reportedly told an aide in 2008. "I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I'll tell you right now that I'm . . . a better political director than my political director."

On another occasion—at the 2004 Democratic convention—Mr. Obama explained to a Chicago Tribune reporter that "I'm LeBron, baby. I can play at this level. I got game."

Of course, it's tempting to be immodest when your admirers are so immodest about you. How many times have we heard it said that Mr. Obama is the smartest president ever? Even when he's criticized, his failures are usually chalked up to his supposed brilliance. Liberals say he's too cerebral for the Beltway rough-and-tumble; conservatives often seem to think his blunders, foreign and domestic, are all part of a cunning scheme to turn the U.S. into a combination of Finland, Cuba and Saudi Arabia.

I don't buy it. I just think the president isn't very bright.

Socrates taught that wisdom begins in the recognition of how little we know. Mr. Obama is perpetually intent on telling us how much he knows. Aristotle wrote that the type of intelligence most needed in politics is prudence, which in turn requires experience. Mr. Obama came to office with no experience. Plutarch warned that flattery "makes itself an obstacle and pestilence to great houses and great affairs." Today's White House, more so than any in memory, is stuffed with flatterers.

Much is made of the president's rhetorical gifts. This is the sort of thing that can be credited only by people who think that a command of English syntax is a mark of great intellectual distinction. Can anyone recall a memorable phrase from one of Mr. Obama's big speeches that didn't amount to cliché? As for the small speeches, such as the one we were kept waiting 50 minutes for yesterday, we get Triple-A bromides about America remaining a "Triple-A country." Which, when it comes to long-term sovereign debt, is precisely what we no longer are under Mr. Obama.

Then there is Mr. Obama as political tactician. He makes predictions that prove false. He makes promises he cannot honor. He raises expectations he cannot meet. He reneges on commitments made in private. He surrenders positions staked in public. He is absent from issues in which he has a duty to be involved. He is overbearing when he ought to be absent. At the height of the financial panic of 1907, Teddy Roosevelt, who had done much to bring the panic about by inveighing against big business, at least had the good sense to stick to his bear hunt and let J.P. Morgan sort things out. Not so this president, who puts a new twist on an old put-down: Every time he opens his mouth, he subtracts from the sum total of financial capital.

Then there's his habit of never trimming his sails, much less tacking to the prevailing wind. When Bill Clinton got hammered on health care, he reverted to centrist course and passed welfare reform. When it looked like the Iraq war was going to be lost, George Bush fired Don Rumsfeld and ordered the surge.

Mr. Obama, by contrast, appears to consider himself immune from error. Perhaps this explains why he has now doubled down on Heckuva Job Geithner. It also explains his insulting and politically inept habit of suggesting—whether the issue is health care, or Arab-Israeli peace, or change we can believe in at some point in God's good time—that the fault always lies in the failure of his audiences to listen attentively. It doesn't. In politics, a failure of communication is always the fault of the communicator.

Much of the media has spent the past decade obsessing about the malapropisms of George W. Bush, the ignorance of Sarah Palin, and perhaps soon the stupidity of Rick Perry. Nothing is so typical of middling minds than to harp on the intellectual deficiencies of the slightly less smart and considerably more successful.

But it takes actual smarts to understand that glibness and self-belief are not sufficient proof of genuine intelligence. Stupid is as stupid does, said the great philosopher Forrest Gump. The presidency of Barack Obama is a case study in stupid does.

Write to bstephens@wsj.com

[admin]

Admin, me parece o les han prohibido a los comentaristas económicos no comprar acciones que mencionen en sus artículos? todos se estan cuidando las espaldas (algunos mencionan 72 horas).

Nunca han estado permitidos de tener acciones (los que trabajan en los medios de comunicacion (solo si trabajan en el sector), y los invitados deben decir de antemano y mencionarlo para que el publico sepa que tienen o no tienen la accion) por motivos de conflicto de interes.

[admin]

Estimada Admin / foristas?

cuál consideran que sería el mejor portafolio en estos momentos?

Si estas fuera, espera a entrar cuando haya una tendencia y mas claridad, por lo menos tener la seguridad que no habra recesion. Las noticias estan muy malas en estos dias, aunque ya sabemos que el mercado siempre exagera.

Esperemos que cuando esto empieze a subir lo haga fuerte tambien.

[admin]

Wayne Rogers: oportunidades de compra en seis meses estaran contentos.

[Ed_Alex]

Estimada Admin / foristas?

cuál consideran que sería el mejor portafolio en estos momentos?

Si estas fuera, espera a entrar cuando haya una tendencia y mas claridad, por lo menos tener la seguridad que no habra recesion. Las noticias estan muy malas en estos dias, aunque ya sabemos que el mercado siempre exagera.

Esperemos que cuando esto empieze a subir lo haga fuerte tambien.

gracias Admin