por admin » Dom Ago 21, 2011 6:47 pm
U.S. Stock Futures Drop After Big S&P 500 Slump
By Rita Nazareth and Inyoung Hwang
August 21, 2011 19:26 EDT
U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may extend its biggest four-week drop since 2009, as investors weighed concern that the global economy is stalling with the cheapest valuations since 2009.
S&P 500 futures expiring in September declined 0.8 percent to 1,115.60 at 8:24 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure plunged 4.7 percent to 1,123.53 last week, giving it a 16 percent loss since July 22. A closing level of 1,090.88 would bring the index to a 20 percent decline since April 29, meeting the common definition of a bear market.
“People just want to stop the pain,” Matt McCormick, a money manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl & Gaynor Inc., which oversees $4 billion, said in a telephone interview. “They are looking for safety, stability and downside protection. Yes, the market is getting cheaper and cheaper, but not many people really care about valuations right now. Investors are concerned about a recession. The macro level is more important.”
Stock futures briefly pared losses on Aug. 19 before U.S. exchanges opened amid optimism European Union regulators may push for joint bond sales by euro-area nations to help contain the debt crisis, putting pressure on Germany to drop its opposition. German Chancellor Angela Merkel attempted to stop speculation about common bonds, saying yesterday that she won’t let markets dictate policy.
Record-low yields on U.S. Treasuries show traders expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to signal as soon as this week that the central bank will begin a third round of asset purchases to boost the economy, a scenario the world’s biggest bond dealers said is unlikely.
Bond Purchases, Recession
Barclays Plc said 10-year yields indicate traders have priced in $500 billion to $600 billion of Treasury purchases by the Fed. Citigroup Inc. said current rates can only be justified by more central bank bond buying, also known as quantitative easing, or assuming the economy will shrink 2 percent.
Gold futures climbed for the sixth straight day, while oil fell a third consecutive day. Gold rose 1 percent to $1,871.50 an ounce. Crude lost 0.7 percent to $81.70 a barrel.
The yen depreciated against 16 major counterparts after the Nikkei reported Japan’s government and central bank are prepared to intervene in the foreign-exchange market this week if the nation’s currency continues to strengthen, citing unidentified government officials.
The Swiss franc weakened versus 15 of 16 peers. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.2 percent to 74.137, and the New Zealand dollar slumped against 15 of 16 major rivals.
‘Dark Clouds’
“Investors are worried that the dark clouds are forming and they don’t know if it’s rain shower or a hurricane,” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer for Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $60 billion, said in a telephone interview. “It’s been a tug-of-war between economic concern and companies trading at decent valuations. I’m a little worried that everybody is expecting something from the Fed. QE2 was effective for equities because it was a surprise. If I were Chairman Bernanke, I’d try to do something creative.”
U.S. stocks tumbled last week as concern the global economy is stalling overshadowed the cheapest valuations in 2 1/2 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 451.37 points, or 4 percent, to 10,817.65, extending its four-week decline to 1,863.51 points.
Hewlett-Packard Co. plunged 27 percent last week, the most since the October 1987 market crash, after a strategy shift undermined confidence in its managers. Technology, industrial and raw-material companies in the S&P 500 dropped at least 6.9 percent, the most among 10 groups. Caterpillar Inc. and Alcoa Inc. retreated more than 8.4 percent after some of the world’s biggest banks -- Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup -- slashed economic growth forecasts.
Drop Since April
The S&P 500 has fallen 18 percent from an almost three-year high on April 29 amid concern about Europe’s government debt burden and a global economic slowdown. The decline through Aug. 8 drove the index to a valuation of 12.2 times reported earnings, the lowest level since March 2009. Its price-earnings ratio is now 12.3, compared with the average of 16.4 since 1954, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Last week’s loss included the S&P 500’s 4.5 percent retreat on Aug. 18 amid speculation that European banks lack sufficient capital. Lars Frisell, the chief economist at Sweden’s financial regulator, said it won’t take much for interbank lending to freeze. The market also declined after U.S. jobless claims rose, Philadelphia-area manufacturing shrank by the most since 2009 and hopes for more stimulus from the Federal Reserve receded.
‘Dangerously Close’
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to economic growth lost 10 percent last week, extending its loss since July 22 to 26 percent and falling to the lowest level since Aug. 26, 2010. Morgan Stanley economists cut forecasts for global growth this year and said the U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession.”
JPMorgan said the U.S. may expand less than previously projected in the next two quarters as consumer sentiment drops and the housing market fails to gain momentum. Citigroup also cut estimates for the U.S.
“We separate the economic picture from the investment picture,” Eric Teal, chief investment officer at First Citizens Bancshares Inc., which manages $4 billion in Raleigh, North Carolina, said in a phone interview. “If the economy is lackluster and stagnant, that does not imply that the stock market has to continue to decline. With valuations where they are, we find the market to be attractive. Companies are generally in good shape, and earnings growth can continue to be quite strong.”
S&P 500 Forecasts
Profit at S&P 500 companies is forecast to rise 17 percent to $99.05 a share in 2011 and 14 percent to $112.81 in 2012, according to average analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks in the S&P 500 are moving in lockstep with each other by the most since at least 1990, a sign that the market’s biggest retreat in three years may not be over, according to MF Global Holdings Ltd. The average correlation coefficient between the 500 companies and the index was 0.8268 on Aug. 18, using 60 days of data, according to MF Global.
High correlation “is usually the case in a bear market, when investors are liquidating equities as an asset class,” Craig Peskin, co-head of technical analysis at the New York- based firm, wrote in an e-mail on Aug. 18. “In a bull market, when investors are differentiating, we see low or falling correlation.”
Correlation among S&P 500 stocks exceeded 0.78 twice previously, according to MF Global. After the first time, on Dec. 1, 2008, the S&P 500 declined 17 percent to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009. Correlation peaked again on July 26, 2010, when the benchmark slipped 6.1 percent over the next month, data compiled by MF Global and Bloomberg show.
Buffett Buys
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. accelerated stock purchases on Aug. 8 as the S&P 500 sank the most since December 2008, the billionaire investor said during an Aug. 15 interview with Charlie Rose on PBS.
“I like buying on sale,” said Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer. “Last Monday, we spent more money in the stock market buying than any day this year.”
History shows the S&P 500 may keep sinking. The index tumbled 16 percent between July 25 and Aug. 8. The eight declines of that size over similar amounts of time since 1928 led to additional losses averaging 17 percent, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a Harrison, New York- based research company.
Bearish wagers against global stocks at hedge funds have surged to the highest level since July 2009 as the European debt crisis and reports showing an economic slowdown cause the biggest losses in almost three years.
Hedge Fund Survey
An index of hedge fund assets from International Strategy & Investment Group dropped to 45.8 on Aug. 16, showing the most short selling in two years, down from a 2011 high of 54.2 in February. The research firm and broker-dealer surveys 35 hedge funds with about $84 billion under management every week.
“The fear factor is so high after what happened in 2008 that people are overreacting,” Eric Marshall, the director of research at Hodges Capital Management Inc., said in a telephone interview. Hodges has about $700 million in assets. “People are assuming that we are somehow in store for another great recession that would last several years, and I don’t see that.”
Hewlett-Packard tumbled 27 percent to $23.60 last week. Leo Apotheker cut sales forecasts for the third time since becoming chief executive officer in November, citing tepid demand. He’s spinning off the personal computer unit, dropping a five-month- old plan to put the WebOS mobile software on devices, and purchasing Autonomy Corp. for $10.3 billion. While aimed at helping add higher-margin products, the shifts are costly and may be time consuming, said Brian Marshall, an analyst at Gleacher & Co.
‘Greater Disarray’
“People just lost confidence in the company,” said Marshall, who is based in San Francisco and has a “buy” rating on the stock. “People are realizing the financial model is in greater disarray than they previously thought.”
Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. surged 55 percent to $37.86. Google Inc., the biggest maker of smartphone software, agreed to buy it for $12.5 billion, gaining mobile patents and expanding in the hardware business.
Larry Page, the Google co-founder who took over as chief executive officer in April, is pushing the Web company into smartphones to take on Apple Inc.’s iPhone and gain more clout for its Android software in the wireless business.
Google retreated 13 percent, the most since November 2008, to $490.92. Apple fell 5.6 percent, the biggest weekly drop since March, to $356.03.