Miercoles 24/08/11, Ordenes de bienes duraderos, indice casa

[admin]

Miercoles

Eventos economicos

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Ordenes de bienes duraderos
Indice del precio de las casas
Reporte del petroleo
Subasta de bonos


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET


FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* -1/32 0.226
10-Year Note* -12/32 2.155
* at close

8:10 p.m. EDT 08/23/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 85.75 0.31 85.44
Gold 1845.5 -15.8 1861.3
E-mini Dow 11100 -41 11141
E-mini S&P 500 1154.25 -4.25 1158.50

8:20 p.m. EDT 08/23/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 76.77 76.67
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4424 1.4441
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper August 23,20:19
Bid/Ask 4.0172 - 4.0189
Change +0.0127 +0.32%
Low/High 4.0045 - 4.0194
Charts

Nickel August 23,20:18
Bid/Ask 9.5244 - 9.5330
Change +0.0683 +0.72%
Low/High 9.4447 - 9.5462
Charts

Aluminum August 23,20:15
Bid/Ask 1.0580 - 1.0609
Change +0.0014 +0.13%
Low/High 1.0554 - 1.0609
Charts

Zinc August 23,20:17
Bid/Ask 0.9854 - 0.9884
Change -0.0013 -0.13%
Low/High 0.9827 - 0.9888
Charts

Lead August 23,20:19
Bid/Ask 1.0650 - 1.0704
Change -0.0036 -0.34%
Low/High 1.0628 - 1.0704

[admin]

Moody's le recorta el rating a la deuda del gobierno Japones, pero el outlook es estable.

Los futures del Dow Jones 54 puntos a la baja.

Oil up 85.58, Au down 1,847.20

El Nikkei +0.50%

[admin]

Moody's recorta calificación nota deuda Japón a "Aa3"
martes 23 de agosto de 2011 19:24 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] " title="Foto de archivo de la torre 7 del World Trade Center, donde se ubican las instalaciones generales de la agencia de calificación Moody's en Nueva york, mayo 7 2010" />
1 de 1Tamaño CompletoSIDNEY (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service recortó el miércoles la calificación de la deuda soberana del Gobierno de Japón en un escalón a "Aa3", culpando al abultado déficit presupuestario y a la acumulación de deuda desde la recesión global del 2009.
"Muchos factores hacen difícil para Japón desacelerar el crecimiento del ratio deuda/PIB y por lo tanto conduce a esta acción de calificación", dijo Moody's en un comunicado.

La rebaja crediticia concluyó una revisión iniciada el 31 de mayo.

El panorama de la nueva nota es estable.

(Reporte de Wayne Cole)

[admin]

Hay que seguir reclamando, a ver si escuchan.

-------------------

martes 23 de agosto de 2011 19:06 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LIMA (Reuters) - Perú, el mayor productor mundial de hoja de coca, reanudó el martes la erradicación de los cultivos ilegales de este insumo de la cocaína en al menos una zona tras una breve interrupción por un rediseño de la política antidroga, dijo un portavoz del Ministerio del Interior.
La suspensión -que se prolongó por casi una semana- fue criticada a nivel local y sorprendió a Estados Unidos, que busca limitar la producción de coca en Perú dentro de una lucha más amplia contra las drogas, por lo que su embajada en Lima pidió explicaciones al Gobierno del presidente Ollanta Humala.

"Se ha reanudado la erradicación de sembradíos de hoja de coca en la zona de Aguaytía", dijo a Reuters el portavoz del Ministerio del Interior, Carlos Asian, sin brindar más detalles.

Aguaytía está ubicada en la región del Alto Huallaga, en la selva central de Perú, que se ha convertido en el mayor cinturón cocalero del mundo, de acuerdo a Naciones Unidas.

La suspensión temporal coincidió con un cambio en la jefatura de la agencia antidroga de Perú, donde los cultivos de hoja de coca crecieron en el 2010 por quinto año consecutivo y superaron a los de Colombia, el mayor productor mundial de cocaína, según la ONU.

En su reporte de junio, la ONU advirtió que de mantenerse esa tendencia Perú podría convertirse en el primer abastecedor mundial de cocaína, cuyos principales mercados están en Estados Unidos y Europa.

Los cocaleros peruanos argumentan que utilizan la hoja como alimento y en ceremonias religiosas, pero expertos en el tema dicen que el 90 por ciento de sus cultivos termina en el tráfico de cocaína.

En Perú, parte de la hoja de coca cultivada y de la cocaína producida es exportada con la ayuda de miembros del grupo rebelde Sendero Luminoso.

El anterior gobierno del presidente Alan García emprendió una ofensiva contra los insurgentes que actúan en alianza con las bandas del narcotráfico en el país, pero hasta ahora más de 50 soldados y policías han muerto en enfrentamientos y hasta helicópteros han sido derribados en zonas cocaleras.

[admin]

Ganancia neta de brasileña Eletrobras cae 77 pct en 2do trim
martes 23 de agosto de 2011 12:37 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - La eléctrica estatal brasileña Eletrobras reportó el martes una caída del 76,9 por ciento interanual en su ganancia correspondiente al segundo trimestre del 2011.
Eletrobras cerró el período comprendido entre abril y junio con una utilidad de 327 millones de reales (204 millones de dólares), frente a 1.412 millones de reales obtenidos en el mismo intervalo del año pasado.

Entre los motivos de esa caída está la variación negativa de 676 millones de reales relativos a los índices de precios que corrige el saldo de energía de la represa hidroeléctrica de Itaipu.

Otra razón fue el recálculo de las liquidaciones de contratos del mercado de corto plazo en la Cámara de Comercialización de Energía Eléctrica.

Se esperaba que Eletrobras reportara una ganancia neta consolidad de 594,1 millones de reales, según la mediana de estimaciones de analistas consultados por Reuters.

Las ganancias antes de intereses, impuestos, depreciaciones y amortizaciones (EBITDA, por su sigla en inglés) de Eletrobras fue de 957 millones de reales en el segundo trimestre, que se comparan a 1.400 millones de reales registrados en el mismo período del año pasado.

Los ingresos operacionales netos de Eletrobras cayeron un 11,6 por ciento interanual en el segundo trimestre, a 5.703 millones de reales, frente a 6.452 millones de reales verificados en igual período del 2010.

(1 dólar = 1,6017 reales)

[Victor VE]

APROBARON LA LEY DE CONSULTA PREVIA.

113 congresistas (todos los presentes) votaron a favor.

Se jodio esto.

Es vinculante o no??

[Ed_Alex]

APROBARON LA LEY DE CONSULTA PREVIA.

113 congresistas (todos los presentes) votaron a favor.

Se jodio esto.

Es vinculante o no??

Es vinculante, las principales perjudicadas serán las juniors.

[admin]

Brent up 109.80

Yen down 76.83

El Nikkei +0.74%

Au up 1,839

Oil up 85.72

Euro down 1.4416

Australia +1.37, Korea +0.89%

[Victor VE]

Vendo todas mis juniors, q no jodan.

[Ed_Alex]

Ya hay más gente indicando que se viene un buen rally del DJ, no hay nuevos mínimos y el oro ha retrocedido bastante.

[admin]

El mercado apuesta al milagro de Bernanke

El stock market subio el Martes y muchos inversionistas le mandaron un ruego a Bernanke: sal al rescate de la estancada economia y de los castigados mercados financieros.



Market Bets on Fed Miracle

By MATT PHILLIPS, DAVID WESSEL and STEVEN RUSSOLILLO
U.S. stocks jumped on Tuesday as many investors sent a plea to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: Come to the rescue of the stalling economy and battered financial markets.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Dow Climbs 322 Points
.The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 322.11 points, or 3%, to 11176.76 as a new round of bleak economy data helped buoy investor hopes that Mr. Bernanke will step in with some sort of monetary stimulus.

That optimism comes despite all signs to the contrary. Federal Reserve officials are saying nothing to encourage market speculation that Mr. Bernanke will use a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday to unveil further Fed action to boost U.S. economic growth.

"There's definitely a tint of optimism that he'll pull a rabbit out of his hat," said Michael Church, president of Addison Capital, who added he thought it unlikely.

New data about the U.S. economy have been bleak. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., said its latest survey of local manufacturers points to a downshift in activity. Last week, the Philadelphia Fed's survey of mid-Atlantic manufacturers and the New York Fed's Empire State survey also pointed down.

The housing market appears to be stumbling. Sales of newly built homes in July fell to the lowest level since February, the government said Tuesday. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported a slip in sales of existing homes, and signs that buyers were cancelling contracts. And the number of American households delinquent on their mortgage payments is rising after falling for more than a year, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported earlier this week.

Stock investors are coming off some of the most tumultuous weeks in history, having been alternately bruised by a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, worries of a U.S. recession and the continuing European debt crisis.

Stocks surged as another bleak dose of economic data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will take additional measures to stimulate the economy. Paul Vigna has details on The News Hub.
.The lack of a signal from Mr. Bernanke of impending action could further roil markets. The Dow is down 8% in August and at various points this month was approaching bear-market territory, categorized as a 20% decline from its high. The Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index is down 10% so far in August, even after Tuesday's 3.4% gain.

Much of the anticipation comes because Mr. Bernanke used the Jackson Hole forum last year to signal the Fed was about to launch a second-round of bond-buying, or quantitative easing. But the circumstances then were significantly different. At this time last year, the economic outlook had deteriorated and inflation was falling, but the Fed's policy committee, the Federal Open Market Committee, had yet to publicly acknowledge that.

In contrast, the Fed on Aug. 9 this year said growth has been "considerably slower than the Committee had expected" and, as consequence, said it intended to keep short-term interest rates near zero through 2013. Mr. Bernanke is likely to use Friday's address to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City conference to elaborate on the committee's economic outlook, rather than break new ground.

On Aug. 9, the Open Market Committee also disclosed it had "discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability."

While that prompted some market analysts to predict the Fed soon will launch a third-round of quantitative easing, Fed officials caution that the bar to that remains very high. Other options are reducing the interest rate that the Fed pays on bank reserves, now 0.25%, to encourage banks to lend or altering the composition of the Fed's portfolio to further push down long-term rates.

Some in the bond market are starting to believe Mr. Bernanke may choose one of the less dramatic options, said Thomas Roth, director in government securities trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in New York. Some in the bond market are thinking the Fed may shift its purchases to longer-term Treasury bonds.

Mr. Roth points to the jump in the price of 30-year bonds—and decline in yields—in recent weeks. According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the 30-year bond has fallen to about 3.46% on Tuesday from roughly 3.75% on Aug. 15, a faster move than shorter-term U.S. bonds.

Economists have been scaling back their forecasts for the second half of the year, and several are putting the odds at renewed recession in the U.S. at an uncomfortably high 40% now.

The latest signs from Europe are no more encouraging. The latest measure of consumer confidence there, for instance, plunged in August

"The global economy is being dragged down by its two largest members. Most other economies and the global asset markets will not be able to shrug this off," economists at Global Insight, a forecasting firm, cautioned Tuesday. "Nevertheless," they added, "this is nothing like the 2008–09 global recession—at least not unless the U.S. and/or European governments make much bigger policy mistakes than they have already."

Still, other markets seemed less convinced that the Fed will step in.

The rise in stocks on Tuesday contrasted with declines in other markets that would normally also benefit from extra Fed spending, specifically high-yield, or junk, corporate bonds and gold. Junk bonds tumbled, investors said, extending their weakest month since December 2008. Gold, which would typically benefit from worries about extra spending devaluing the U.S. dollar, dropped $30.40 a troy ounce, or 1.6%, to $1858.30.

Write to Matt Phillips at matt.phillips@wsj.com, David Wessel at capital@wsj.com and Steven Russolillo at steven.russolillo@dowjones.com

[admin]

Quienes estan mas asustados, los bulls o los bears?

Este dice que esta comprando por que los bears estan muy valientes y creidos y los bulls estan asustados, prefiere comprar ahora como contrario y por que los bulls estan mas asustados que los bears. Comprando RIverbed, Google, Aaple, etc.

Who’s more scared, the bulls or the bears?
August 23, 2011, 5:00 PM.Commentary
By Cody Willard In this week’s Revolution Investing, I outline why I’ve been closing out some shorts this week and was adding to my tech longs in last week’s market crashes. It’s all about emotions out there right now. In the newsletter, I write:

“The bears are celebrities again, and even though very few bears have caught this downside swing and ensuing volatility very well — the curse of the perma-bear is that they can’t differentiate timing — but they are loud and full of new predictions of new doom. And the bear websites, the bearish pundits, the bearish hedge funders, are flaunting their genius, even as they wonder how they missed most of the move down. They’ve now been shorting all rallies and are what they should have been at the top six weeks ago — aggressively net short. And see, all that short stock out there must be bought back at some point — either lower or higher (or at these levels, too). The bears are now outright shorts and they’re cocked and loaded and feeling brave.”

Not much bear fear out there right now. And how about the bulls? From the newsletter:

“Meanwhile, the bulls are beaten and depressed. The emails from my (mostly formerly-) bullish money manager friends are full of doubt. Indeed, most bulls (aka former longs) have been puking up most of their biggest positions to raise cash and try to salvage what was just a few weeks ago a good year but is now probably down 1-10% on the year.”

I’d like to ask you guys the same thing I asked subscribers of newsletter and of my independent trading service, TradingWithCody.com, “Who’s more scared right now, the bulls or the bears?”

Because when the answer to that question is as strong on one side as it is right now — do you know any bears who are scared right now? Do you know any bulls who are NOT scared right now? — it often coincides with a big turn in the market.

Not sure Apple, Google, Riverbed, Marvell and the others I’ve been buying back recently are truly bottomed out or not. But I’d rather be a buyer when the bulls are overwhelmingly scared, and I do think they are. Do you?

Some of the comments I’ve gotten so far:

I’m a bull and “scared” and I agree with you that the bears are not scared at this time. Accordingly, as a bull I see this as a good time to play the contrarian move and stay bullish. Thanks for the easy money today that I booked on the RVBD calls. It was hard to buy them yesterday with the underlying stock of riverbed looking as bad as it did yesterday….I thank you! – Les

I think the bulls are more scared because the prevailing media sentiment is one of doom and gloom. Most stories today cover the bump as “hopeful but unlikely speculation that the fed will intervene” followed by a slew of reports on slow housing starts, more disruption in Europe, etc. And personally it’s not hard to be scared when every rally of late seems to be followed by a steep fall. There’s my 2 cents but I’m ever the optimist and roll my eyes whenever I hear another “apple can’t do it this time” story. – Gregory

I vote that the bulls are more scared now, including myself – Bill

So you tell me, “Who’s more scared right now, the bulls or the bears?” Shoot me an email to contact@TradingWithCody.com

[admin]

El oro y las acciones toman caminos separados.

El oro y las acciones se estan moviendo en direcciones opuestas hasta cierto grado no visto desde el 2008, mientras los inversionistas dejan los activos riesgosos por el temor a la desaceleracion de la economia global.

Esto parece un caso de aversion extrema al reisgo. Nos dice que esta de moda el oro y las acciones no estan de moda, dice un analista de MF Global.

Historicamente la correlacion del oro con las acciones es cero, es decir no hay correlacion.
Gold, Stocks Take Separate Paths

By TATYANA SHUMSKY
NEW YORK—Gold and stocks are moving in opposite directions to a degree not seen since 2008, as investors shed risky assets amid fears about the global economic outlook.

"It just seems there's an extreme case of risk aversion at this point. It tells you that gold's in favor and stocks are out of favor right now," said Tom Pawlicki, precious-metals analyst with MF Global.

The 30-day average correlation between gold and stocks has slumped to a three-year low of minus-0.903, on a scale in which minus-1 being the strongest possible negative reading.

The correlation holds true even when stocks take gold's place as the market's favorite. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 285 points, or 2.6%, to 11139.91 in late trade, and the gold contract for August delivery fell $30.40, or 1.6%, to settle at $1,858.30 a troy ounce. U.S. stocks gained on hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would act later this week to spur economic growth.

Even an earthquake in the mid-Atlantic that emanated throughout the East Coast couldn't shake the correlation, with gold sliding as low as $1,833.10 after the shock was felt, while stocks continued their rally.

But the role reversal is likely to be fleeting, as the factors that sent investors running into gold remain. Downbeat economic data in the U.S., coupled with fears that Europe's sovereign-debt problems are spreading to larger euro-zone economies, have shaken investors' faith in global growth.

This lack of confidence is driving gold and stocks in opposite directions, said Suki Cooper, precious-metals analyst with Barclays Capital. Investors need to safeguard the wealth that has survived the volatile swings since the financial crisis, and gold appears to be a safe place to park cash.

"The dynamics hinge on market confidence, and that's favoring gold," Ms. Cooper said.

Gold has rallied 16% since the start of August, while benchmark U.S. equity indexes have tumbled deep into correction territory this month. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 13% over the same period, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 11%.

As solid as the correlation seems, it is still vulnerable to sudden shifts.

"It never really goes strongly one way or another for a long period of time," said Bill Smalley, a vice president at Factor Advisors. The company recently launched an exchange-traded fund that tracks the difference between gold futures and the S&P 500.

Historically, gold's correlation to the S&P 500 is near zero and tends to revert to the norm, Mr. Smalley said.

"Statistically, their returns move randomly," he said.

Moreover, the battered stock prices are likely to lure bargain hunters who are willing to take the chance on companies with high dividend yields and good business prospects even in this uncertain economic environment.

"It opens up the possibility of a peak in the gold market, because of the attractiveness stocks currently have," MF Global's Mr. Pawlicki said.