Jueves 01/09/2011 ISM, gasto en construccion

[admin]

Jueves

Eventos economicos
Indice Monster del empleo (no le hacen mucho caso)
Ventas de tiendas
Ventas de Autos
Productividad y costos
Indice manufacturero ISM
Gasto en construccion
Reporte de gas natural
Subasta de bonos
Money supply
Balance del Fed

Chain Store Sales


Monster Employment Index


Motor Vehicle Sales


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET


ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

[admin]

Copper August 31,20:39
Bid/Ask 4.1858 - 4.1878
Change -0.0110 -0.26%
Low/High 4.1856 - 4.2000
Charts

Nickel August 31,20:00
Bid/Ask 9.9819 - 10.0191
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 9.9819 - 10.0191
Charts

Aluminum August 31,20:39
Bid/Ask 1.0954 - 1.0963
Change -0.0019 -0.18%
Low/High 1.0952 - 1.0982
Charts

Zinc August 31,20:35
Bid/Ask 1.0234 - 1.0259
Change -0.0027 -0.27%
Low/High 1.0229 - 1.0291
Charts

Lead August 31,20:20
Bid/Ask 1.1657 - 1.1675
Change -0.0033 -0.28%
Low/High 1.1643 - 1.1724

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* -0/32 0.204
10-Year Note* -16/32 2.230
* at close

8:37 p.m. EDT 08/31/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 88.75 -0.06 88.81
Gold 1826.7 -5.0 1831.7
E-mini Dow 11621 18 11603
E-mini S&P 500 1218.75 1.00 1217.75

8:48 p.m. EDT 08/31/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 76.83 76.66
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4366 1.4372
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Australia +0.1%, el Nikkei +0.90%, Korea +1.46%,

Au down 1,823.80

Euro down 1.4359

Yen down 76.90

[admin]

Hablando de la desesperacion del gobierno Brasilero de hacer lucir sus numeros mejor de lo que realmente van a ser, inesperadamente bajan los intereses a 12%, por que lo hacen? muy simple, ya saben que la economia deacelera y quieren impulsar su economia, el gobierno sabe que eso no va a crecer al 7.5% nunca mas (en el corto plazo) si tienen suerte crecera solo 3.9%.

Con 3.9% de crecimiento su politica fiscal luce hasta las patas, el deficit aumenta y no se justifican los gastos en programas sociales que estan haciendo, transferencia de riqueza, etc, etc, entonces desesperadamente bajan los intereses para que la economia crezca, haciendo el credito mas barato. Un pequenio problema con importancia, la inflacion en Brasil es la mas alta de los paises emergentes (en el mundo entero) es mas del 7%. Inmensa irresponsabilidad, lo cual me dice que el Bco. Central no tiene independencia. Ningun Banco Central que se respete va a bajar intereses cuando tiene el problema de la inflacion. La inflacion perjudica mas a los pobres, ya el arroz y los frijoles se han duplicado en los ultimos dos anios. La feiojada le sale cara a los Brasileros de las favelas.

Verguenza!!

Nunca me vuelvan a decir que Brasil es el ejemplo que el Peru va a seguir!!!

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Bco. Central Brasil recorta inesperadamente tasa Selic a 12 pct
miércoles 31 de agosto de 2011 20:09 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] BRASILIA (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Brasil redujo inesperadamente el miércoles la tasa de interés referencial a un 12 por ciento.
El Comité de Política Monetaria del banco, conocido como Copom, decidió por cinco votos a favor y dos en contra recortar la denominada tasa Selic en 50 puntos básicos, tras cinco alzas consecutivas en el año.

Los 20 analistas consultados por Reuters en un sondeo esperaban que el Banco Central mantuviera estable la tasa Selic.

(Reporte de Isabel Versiani y Raymond Colitt; Escrito por Guillermo Parra-Bernal)

[admin]

Wen en China dice que su obejtivo es controlar la inflacion.

La inflacion en S. Korea se acelera a niveles mas altos en tres anios.

[admin]

Ya le llego su hora!!

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El mutual fund del Caribe subio ante el reporte de que la salud de Fidel Castro se esa deteriorando. Subio 3.7%
Cuba Mutual Fund Climbs on Report Fidel Castro’s Health Is Deteriorating
By Jonathan J. Levin - Aug 31, 2011 4:59 PM ET .
The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund, a closed-end mutual fund that aims to profit from a resumption of U.S. trade with Cuba, surged the most in three weeks after a newspaper report that former President Fidel Castro’s health had deteriorated.

The $25 million fund jumped 3.7 percent to $6.65 today, the biggest advance since Aug. 11. Fuego Enterprises Inc. (FUGI), which intends to provide communications services in Cuba, led gains among the fund’s holdings, climbing 25 percent to 3 cents in over the counter trading. Popular Inc. (BPOP), Puerto Rico’s largest lender, rose 3.5 percent to $2.08 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Nelson Bocaranda, a columnist with Caracas-based El Universal, wrote yesterday that Castro’s health is “getting complicated,” without saying where it obtained the information. The Cuban revolutionary leader has lost consciousness several times recently and is being treated for an infection, he wrote.

Jorge Avila Hernandez, a spokesman for the Cuban embassy in Mexico City, declined to comment on the speculation. Phone calls to the office of the Permanent Representative of Cuba to the United Nations weren’t answered and it wasn’t possible to leave a message.

Castro, who turned 85 years old this month, began transferring control of the island to his brother Raul in July 2006, when he underwent intestinal surgery, and officially stepped down as president in 2008. Fidel Castro seized power in Cuba a half-century ago promising liberty and economic justice, then turned the Caribbean island into a communist bastion and a flashpoint of the Cold War.

Trade Embargo
U.S. President John F. Kennedy imposed a trade embargo in Cuba that is still in effect, even after Raul Castro initiated some measures to open the economy after taking power.

Cecilia Gondor, executive vice president at Miami-based Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors Inc., said the fund usually rallies on speculation about Castro’s deteriorating health.

The fund focuses on “companies in the region that would benefit from a more open Cuban market,” said Mike Taggart, the director of closed-end fund research at Morningstar Investment Services in Chicago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan J. Levin in Mexico City at jlevin20@bloomberg.net

[admin]

Algunos de Uds. se preguntaran por que pongo tantas cosas de Brasil, leanlo por favor, leanlo, que nadie nos diga que Peru va a seguir el ejemplo de Brasil, Brasil es el ejemplo de lo que no se debe hacer, no diferente de Espania, Grecia, etc.

Estan locos.
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Brasil reduce el presupuesto del 2012 mientras las pensiones le ganan a la inflacion

Brazil ha bajado su target de ahorro para el proximo anio debido a que el gobierno esta buscando aumentar las pensiones al doble de la inflacion, de acuerdo al presupuesto presentado por el gobierno de Brasil.

Rousseff asume un crecimiento del 5% para poder justificar un aumento del 10% en el gasto del gobierno. Crecen las dudas acerca de la disciplina fiscal de ese pais. El aumento en los pagos de pensiones sera de un 13.6%


Brazil Reduces 2012 Budget Target as Pension Increases Outpace Inflation
By Mario Sergio Lima and Matthew Bristow - Aug 31, 2011 7:05 PM ET .
Brazil lowered its savings target next year as the government seeks to raise pension payments at twice the pace of inflation, according to the government’s 2012 budget proposal.

President Dilma Rousseff’s first budget proposal since taking office relies on 5 percent economic growth next year to buoy a 10 percent jump in spending. That’s faster growth than economists estimate, as demand for Brazil’s commodities exports weakens on an expected global slowdown, and may cast doubt on Rousseff’s commitment to fiscal austerity a day after she vowed to clear the way for lower interest rates.

A 13.6 percent jump in pension outlays, tax breaks for industry and spending on infrastructure ahead of the 2014 World Cup will all complicate Rousseff’s efforts to boost savings next year, said Tony Volpon, Latin America strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc.

“There’s a lot of stuff that’s built into the budget already,” Volpon said by phone from New York.

The 2012 budget proposal presented to Congress today expects a budget surplus before interest payments next year of 114 billion reais ($70 billion), equal to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product. The government this week raised to about 128 billion reais, or more than 3 percent of GDP, its 2011 projected primary surplus including state-run companies and local governments.

The budget proposal, which must still be approved by Congress, forecasts faster economic growth than the 3.9 percent estimated by analysts in a central bank survey published this week.

Spending Jump
The government plans to spend 1.8 billion reais next year building stadiums and revamping airports for the World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. It will also triple, to 26 billion reais, spending on Rousseff’s hallmark program to eliminate poverty.

Spending on healthcare and education are slated to rise 15 percent and 33 percent respectively. Only 11 percent of Brazil’s budget is reserved for discretionary spending, with the remainder earmarked for pension payments, salaries and debt servicing costs.

The budget’s biggest expenditure, on pensions, will be indexed to a 13.6 percent raise in the country’s minimum wage to 619.21 reais per month from 545 reais this year. The wage is adjusted annually according to a formula negotiated by labor unions with Rousseff’s predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and takes into account inflation and economic growth from two years prior. Brazil’s economy grew 7.5 percent in 2010, the fastest in more than two decades.

“You have civil service unions that want to continue the good times that they had under Lula, getting very nice wage increases every year and more jobs,” Volpon said.

‘Tricky’ Accounting
Budget Minister Miriam Belchior denied that the government was reducing its savings target. She told reporters in Brasilia that the government plans to repeat its performance this year and achieve a “full” primary surplus of 140 billion reais without taking advantage of special accounting rules allowing it to discount as much as 40 billion reais from the budget goal.

“We’d prefer not to do this, but want leave a margin for ourselves in case one day we need it,” she told reporters.

By leaving itself this “maneuvering room” the government will generate unwanted “noise” in markets as investors gauge whether Rousseff is committed to keeping a lid on spending, said Jankiel Santos, chief economist at Espirito Santo Investment Bank.

“It sounds kind of tricky to me,” said Santos in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. “All the uncertainty around fiscal policy will remain there.”

Fiscal Commitment
Rousseff yesterday vowed to rein in spending as she seeks to slow inflation that surpassed 7 percent in August, the fastest in six years, and take Brazil on a “new pathway” of lower borrowing costs.

This week, the government raised by 10 billion reais its primary surplus target for this year, fueling expectations that another round of budget tightening was in the works to pave the way for lower interest rates that are the highest in the Group of 20 nations.

A lower surplus target will make it more difficult for the central bank to cut borrowing costs next year, said Nick Chamie, the head of emerging markets research at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Brazil’s success in meeting its budget targets this year is largely due to strong tax collection, which is unlikely to persist as the economy cools, Volpon said.

Tax Collection
The central government collected 90.2 billion reais in tax revenue in July, up from 69.6 billion reais a year earlier. Brazil’s budget deficit fell to 1.9 percent of GDP in the year through July, down from 3.4 percent two years earlier.

The yield on the interest rate futures contract maturing in January 2013, the most traded in Sao Paulo today, rose two basis points to 11.15 percent at 1:42 p.m. New York time.

Brazil’s economy has recently shown signs of cooling, as Chinese demand for Brazil’s commodities exports has waned and industrial production has softened as a result of a currency rally.

Industrial production shrank 0.27 percent in July from a year earlier, and the central bank’s economic activity index fell in June for the first time since December, 2008. Business confidence in the second quarter slid to its lowest level since 2009.

Inflation should end 2012 at 4.8 percent, above the government’s 4.5 percent target, according to the budget proposal. The budget takes into account an average exchange rate of 1.64 reais per U.S. dollar compared with 1.5951 reais at the close of yesterday’s trading.

[admin]

Fiat dice que esta pensando dejar de construir carros en Italia y abrir plantas en US. (Jeeps y Alfa Romeos Que??, dicen que los costos de produccion son mas baratos en US.

Pobre Europa!!

[admin]

Colombia aumento reservas de oro, Mexico las recorto.

[admin]

El PMI de China en Agosto fue 50.9, fue 50.7 en Julio. Los economistas esperaban 51.0. Las medidas de ajuste estan funcionando.

China Aug. Manufacturing PMI at 50.9
By Bloomberg News - Aug 31, 2011 9:00 PM ET .
A Chinese manufacturing index was 50.9 in August compared with a previously reported 50.7 in July, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today. A number above 50 indicates expansion. The reading compared with the median 51.0 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists.

[admin]

Facebook integrara musica, peliculas, videogames a su website.

La competencia es fiera.

[Victor VE]

Todo el mundo en azul a esta hora, la felicidad jaja

[admin]

Los futures del Dow Jones 60 puntos al alza.

El Hang Seng +0.60%, el Nikkei +1.39%, el Shanghai C. +0.54%

Korea +2.37%, Australia +1.14%

El indice del dolar al alza.

Yen down 77, euro down 1.4372

[Josh]

Estimados, como ven los siguientes días? el lunes y hoy tuvimos mucho optimismo, por parte del mercado peruano me parece que algunas acciones corregirán pero aun hay varias que tienen aun potencial para mantener el IGBVL al alza. Me gustaría saber que perspectiva tienen ustedes.