Viernes 09/09/11 Comercio Internacional

[admin]

Obama presenta un plan para reactivar la economía

Por JARED A. FAVOLE
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--El presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, propuso el jueves un plan por US$447.000 millones para reactivar la economía del país y afirmó que su propuesta otorgará un impulso instantáneo a la economía si el Congreso lo aprueba de inmediato.

El plan "proveerá un impulso a una economía que se ha estancado y dará a las compañías confianza de que si invierten y contratan, habrá clientes para su productos y servicios. Deben aprobar este plan de empleos inmediatamente", dijo Obama.

El plan contempla una reducción de impuestos sobre las nóminas para empleados y empresas, un gasto de miles de millones de dólares para arreglar caminos y puentes del país y una extensión y modernización de los beneficios por desempleo.

El plan tiene un costo inicial de US$447.000 millones, pero Obama entregará detalles de cómo prevé pagar todo el programa. También, en una semana, el mandatario presentará un plan para reducir el déficit fiscal del país.

Obama añadió que Estados Unidos debe reestructurar el sistema de Medicare y Medicaid. "Ahora me doy cuenta que hay algunos en mi partido que no creen que deberíamos hacer algún cambio a Medicare y Medicaid, y entiendo sus preocupaciones", dijo el presidente. Luego agregó, "si no reformamos gradualmente el sistema mientras protegemos a sus actuales beneficiarios, no estará allí cuando lo necesiten futuros jubilados. Tenemos que reformar Medicare para fortalecerlo".

Obama está presentando el paquete ante un Congreso que, hasta ahora, ha rechazado muchas de sus ideas para impulsar el crecimiento económico en medio de la persistente frustración de que su plan original de estímulo no hizo suficiente para hacer crecer la economía y reducir el desempleo. El presidente también presenta el plan en momentos en que la tasa de desempleo se encuentra estancada en 9,1% y a medida que busca su reelección.

Además de los recortes impositivos y otras propuestas de gastos, Obama afirmó que "ahora es el momento de despejar el camino para una serie de acuerdos comerciales que harán más fácil para las empresas estadounidenses vender sus productos en Panamá, Colombia y Corea del Sur, a la vez de ayudar a los trabajadores cuyos empleos han sido afectados por la competencia global".

El plan, no obstante, no incluye nuevas propuestas importantes para ayudar al mercado de la vivienda, que ha afectado significativamente a la economía del país. Obama ha solicitado a su equipo económico que trabaje con las agencias federales de la vivienda y Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac para ayudar a que los dueños de propiedades puedan refinanciar sus hipotecas y aprovechar las bajas tasas de interés.

[admin]

Feldstein, economista de Harcard dice que el estimulo de Obama no va a tener efecto por que no va a estimular el consumo por que no hace nada por el sector vivienda y el precio de las casas sigue bajando.

Hasta que no se arregle el problema de las casas, es muy dificil ver al consumidor tener algo de confianza, algo de riqueza y el deseo de gastar.

La posicion de Feldstein es totalmente opuesta a la del gobierno de Obama, Geithner salio a decir que el plan funcionaria y promoveria el crecimiento de la economia de manera sustancial.

Feldstein Says Obama Plan Unlikely to Boost Consumer Spending: Tom Keene
By Steve Matthews and Tom Keene - Sep 9, 2011 2:08 PM ET .

Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein said President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs plan is unlikely to boost consumer spending because it doesn’t address falling home prices.

“Until we fix the housing program, it is hard to see how consumers are going to have confidence, net worth and the willingness to spend,” Feldstein said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene.

Falling home values have curbed the confidence of consumers whose spending makes up about 70 percent of the economy. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.5 percent in the year ended June 2011, and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index last week fell to the second-lowest level this year.

Feldstein disagreed with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner’s view that the plan would provide a “substantial” boost to growth. Tax cuts, including reduction of payroll taxes, account for more than half the value of the president’s plan, which includes a $105 billion infrastructure proposal for school modernization, transportation projects and rehabilitation of vacant properties.

“I don’t think it can be old-fashioned, Keynesian, ‘give people some money and hope they spend it,’” Feldstein, who served as chief economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, said. “People are too nervous, they are paying down debt, they are not going out and going to spend it.”

Financing Unclear
The proposal will “buy us less than $450 billion in GDP, probably half that amount,” Feldstein, 71, said. “So it is a very inefficient program.” In addition, “It is not clear how it is going to be paid for.”

Feldstein also said a possible effort by the Federal Reserve aimed at lowering long-term interest rates in relation to short-term borrowing costs would not work and could discourage lending.

“It could backfire,” he said. “If the yield curve is flattened even more, and it is very flat right now, why are banks going to be willing to lend?”

Fed policy makers at their meeting Sept. 20-21 may decide to replace short-term Treasury securities in the central bank’s $1.65 trillion portfolio with long-term bonds in a bid to reduce rates on everything from mortgages to car loans, according to economists at Wells Fargo & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said policy makers will discuss the tools they could use to boost the recovery at their next meeting and stand ready to use them if necessary.

Policy makers “are prepared to employ these tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability,” Bernanke said in Minneapolis, echoing points from his Aug. 26 remarks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He didn’t specify the tools.

‘Moderate’ Growth
Geithner today said Obama’s plan would provide a “substantial” boost to the economy. “I think we’ve got a good chance of continuing a moderate pace of growth coming out of this crisis,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Marseille, France. If Congress approves the plan, “it would dramatically reduce the risk of a long period of much weaker growth.”

Economists cut their forecasts for growth, according to a Bloomberg News survey taken from Sept. 2 to Sept. 7. The median forecast calls for a 1.8 percent annual pace of expansion in the third quarter, down from 2.1 percent in the previous month’s survey. Growth next year is forecast to average 2.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent.

Feldstein is a former president of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the NBER committee that declared the recession ended in June 2009.

[admin]

Stockman" el plan de Obama es una desgracia, mas veneno Keynesiano. Lo del holiday del impuesto es la peor parte del plan.

Aol podria ser comprado por Yahoo.

Yiedls down 1.92%

[admin]

Bove: BAC puede restructurar sus lineas de negocios. Tienen $140 billones en cash. Mas de lo que tienen en market capitalization. Su valor de libro es mayor.

Terremoto en Canada 6.7

[admin]

-276.34

[admin]

El Dow Jones pierde 303.68 puntos a 10,992.30 puntos debido a la crisis en Europa, el mundo asustado ante la salida del miembro Aleman del ECB, sin Alemania no hay nada. Alemania toma medidas para proteger su banca, que significa eso para el resto de la zona Euro?

[admin]

Euro down 1,3664

[El_Diez]

No ha pasado nada con los indices norteamericanos..... "HASTA EL MOMENTO", todavía esta bien.
Mientras el EPU esté por arriba de 36 no hay problemas .

[El_Diez]

Que curioso esto, las propuestas del EPU terminaron asi: ..

Tamaño posición de venta: 100
Posición de venta 44.19
Tamaño posición de compra 200
Posición de compra 37.72

Terminaron en extremos, propuesta de venta demasiado alta y propuesta de compra demasiado baja.

[admin]

Alemania, dejara ir a Grecia?

Dicen que la peor inversions es mantener una mala. Alemania esta mirando a un plan B. Sin Grecia. A salvar lo rescatable y realizar perdidas.

Amputar a Grecia en lugar de resucitarla.

Will Germany Decide to Let Greece Fall?

By Michael Casey

They say the worst investment you can make is to stick with a bad one.

Maybe the powerbrokers of the euro zone have finally realized that with regards to their investment in the Greek government. It’s time to cut their losses and instead work on saving the salvageable parts of the euro-zone financial system.

A series of stories that have roiled currency and bond markets these past few days will feed speculation that officials are considering amputating Greece and instead resuscitating the rest of the euro zone.

These include German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s blunt statements flagging the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro zone to lawmakers this week and the reports on Friday that his government is preparing a “Plan B” to save German banks from the losses they would incur if Greece defaults on its bonds. The rumor mills are running hot that a forthcoming default announcement could put an abrupt end to the painful, drawn-out process through which Germany, France and other euro-zone nations have tried but failed to stanch the financial bleeding in the Mediterranean country.

Yet other stories this week suggest a determination to throw money at the rest of Europe to save it from Greek contagion effects. Germany’s constitutional court gave the legal all-clear to the planned expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility, which in theory should allow that institution to buy the bonds of countries such as Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal and halt the vicious cycle of fear that’s putting their own finances at risk of default. And on Friday we learned that Juergen Stark, another German, had resigned from his post on the European Central Bank’s governing council, most likely because of his opposition to the central bank’s own moves to buy the bonds of such countries. That could signal a more accommodating ECB posture toward the debt-laden peripheral countries.

Such a stance will be easier to sustain–at least politically–if the toxic problem of Greece is dealt with and isolated. And that can only happen through the catharsis of default.

This past week, there have been worrying signs that the bailout money with which the euro zone countries and the International Monetary Fund have kept the Greek government afloat will cease flowing. Talks between the government and the so-called “troika” of the ECB, the IMF and the European Union broke down last week and on Friday, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters that Greece, whose economy shrank by a brutal 7.3% in the second quarter, could not afford to impose any more austerity measures. Although talks are due to resume on Sept. 15, time is running out. On Sept. 23, Greece must make a payment on a three-month Treasury bill.

Even with a Greek finance ministry source calling rumors of a weekend default “rubbish,” a missed payment is considered inevitable before year-end by all but the most cheery optimists. Greek credit default swaps aren’t above 3,000 points for nothing. An exit from the euro zone is less likely, but it remains a possibility, especially if a disorderly default sows such financial chaos in the Greek banking system that Greece is forced to devalue in order to bring its economy back from the brink.

A Greek default would be extremely messy, but in theory it can be contained. This is perhaps why German authorities are now focusing on their Plan B. If one must die to save the group, Greece will be it.

[jonibol]

La solución de mercado dice que debería dejarla.

[dniel77]

Mientras tanto por akí, Anonymus haciendo de las suyas en #OPjusticia.
hace unos dias indicaron que la operación denominada #OpJusticia se realizaria hoy desde las 13:00 horas contra los portales de internet estatales, mediante un ataque DDOS que consiste en sobrecargar la web.
hasta ahora se han bajado webs como www.pj.com.pe, http://www.mindef.gob.pe/
asi como la web de projoven http://pastebin.com/hW6QQgVA
Datos de munisantanita.gob.pe http://ow.ly/6qozW
también filtro datos privados de militantes de Perú Posible http://bit.ly/nw8pX3

[admin]

Esta noticia es espantosa, resulta que uno de los hombres de Obama esta detras de la venta de armas a Mexico. La operacion que ha armado a los carteles de Mexico tiene a tres hombres en la Casa Blanca. Uno de ellos es Dan Restrepo.

El Bureau de Alcohol, tobacco, Firearms y Explosivos esta promoviendo la venta de armas a los carteles Mexicanos para comprar armas de las tiendas de armas Americanas.

2,000 armas fueron vendidas despues desaparecieron para luego aparecer en las masacres en Mexico y en la confrontacion donde murieron oficiales Americanos.

Restrepo esta implicado en operaciones en Cuba, Honduras, Colombia y Venezuela.

Han querido a culpar a las tiendas de ventas de armas, pero ellas vendian las armas por ordenes de los oficiales de la Casa Blanca.

(Este articulo dice que bien Obama no sabia nada (por que se le pasea el alma) y si sabia hay que hacerle impeachment)

A White House 'Gunrunner'?

Posted 09/07/2011 06:01 PM ET


The Law: Operation Gunwalker, the rogue ATF operation to arm Mexico's cartels, extends now to three White House officials. A bell goes off with the one named Dan Restrepo.

Late last Friday, CBS News and the Los Angeles Times almost buried the news that Restrepo, the National Security Council's top man for Latin America, and two other officials, were in on ATF memos from the Gunwalker operation called "Fast and Furious."

That blows apart White House claims that it had no idea the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives was encouraging frontmen for Mexico's cartels to buy weapons from U.S. gun dealers — to "trace" them afterward.

Some 2,000 U.S. guns were sold in Gunwalker but simply disappeared — until they turned up at massacres in Mexico and at the murder scenes of U.S. Border Patrol agent Brian Terry and Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agent Jaime Zapata.

But outgoing ATF acting director Ken Melson and others who've been the fall guys in this scandal darkly hint that their orders came from the White House, and domestic critics think Gunwalker can only be explained as a White House bid to boost support for gun control. Restrepo's involvement distinctly raises both possibilities.

Restrepo is a political operative whose interests are more domestic than Latin American. As a result, he's botched every Latin American operation he's had his hand in, appeasing enemies and blaming the U.S.:

• Honduras: In 2009, Restrepo was behind a U.S. bid to swiftly declare Honduras' constitutional ouster of its president "a coup" and sanctioned the country, playing into the hands of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who had attempted to make Honduras a colony.

• Cuba: Restrepo was behind loosening sanctions on Castro's Cuba, which has emboldened the regime to act against Americans. While Castro imprisoned Alan Gross, a U.S. contractor who was distributing satellite phones to dissidents, the Obama administration said nothing.

Colombia: Its troops captured drug "kingpin of kingpins" Walid Makled, who had extensive knowledge of Venezuelan official involvement in trafficking. U.S. attorneys wanted him extradited, but Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos said President Obama never asked. When IBD asked Restrepo whether he advised Obama to ask, Restrepo defensively said he did. But that's at odds with what Santos said.

• Venezuela: Treasury Department officials complained Restrepo kept names of high-ranking Venezuelan officials with ties to drug dealers off its "Kingpin List," in a naive effort to keep pressure off Chavez.

• Now Restrepo tries to pin Mexico's drug war not on Hugo Chavez's trafficker allies, but on gun dealers from the U.S.

There's little doubt that's his line, because blaming U.S. gun dealers and calling for a U.S. assault weapon ban were his ideas from his days spent at the Center for American Progress, an Obama-linked think tank.

The U.S. "will work to inhibit the flow of weapons ... across our border," Restrepo told Mexican media.

Meanwhile, when Obama met with Mexico's President Felipe Calderon, both erroneously declared that U.S. weapons fueled Mexico's drug war — on Restrepo's advice.

Blogger Mike Vanderbroegh thinks that if Restrepo wasn't the author of Gunwalker he'd know who is and should be called to tell Congress. Either he's kept Obama in the dark about Gunwalker, or Obama should be impeached.

[admin]

Default y desacuerdos amenaza a Grecia

16 meses despues del rescate y 7 semanas despues del nuevo acuerdo que los salvo del colapso, Grecia esta todavia en peligro de un default desestabilizador y terrible para los mercados.

En una vertiginosa sesion el Viernes que tambien vio la sorpresiva renuncia de un top oficial del ECB. El euro cayo estrepitosamente frente al dolar debajo de 1.37. La banca lidero la caida en Europa, quien puede sobrevivir la derretida de la periferia Europea.

Grecia esta en peligro de incumplimiento de los objetivos trazados por el ECB y el precio a pagar es no mas ayuda. La participacion de los bancos es crucial para la restructuracio de su deuda. Si se le quita la ayuda a Grecia, en semanas no pondran cumplir con sus obligaciones financieras.

Mientras tanto en Grecia, la poblacion se rebela contra el gobierno, movilizaran a 5,000 policias para contener al descontento de las masas. Los carros estan prohibidos de circular.

Se habla de despedir a 120,000 empleados publicos, lo cual rompera la relacion estrecha entre los sindicatos y el gobierno socialista.

Default and Dissent Threaten Greece

By CHARLES FORELLE in Brussels and ALKMAN GRANITSAS in Athens
Sixteen months after a landmark bailout and seven weeks after a fresh deal to pull it back from the brink of collapse, Greece remains in danger of descending into a messy, destabilizing default.

In a vertiginous trading session Friday that also saw the surprise resignation of a top European Central Bank official, Greek woes once again unnerved investors. The euro slumped sharply against the dollar, falling under $1.37. Bourses in Paris and Frankfurt suffered big losses, led by banks, who would bear the brunt of a meltdown in Europe's periphery.

Greece is being buffeted on several fronts. It is in danger of missing budget-cutting targets that its euro-zone rescuers insist are the price of continued aid. Participation by banks in a crucial debt-restructuring plan may be less than planned. And euro-zone countries are mired in a debate over whether Greece must provide collateral to secure its bailout money.

There is little room for anything to go wrong. Without more aid, Greece will run out of cash within weeks, senior Greek government officials say.

Meanwhile, popular dissent in Greece is seething. Mass protests are expected to greet Prime Minister George Papandreou in Thessaloniki, Greece's second city, where he is slated to give a speech Saturday at the international trade fair, defending the harsh fiscal cuts his government has pledged. More than 5,000 police have been mobilized to barricade the city center. All traffic is banned.

The protests come amid a wave of walkouts planned by workers of all stripes—taxi owners, teachers, tax collectors—in the coming days to decry the budget measures.
.Authorities from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund—Greece's rescuers—are leaning on the government to push forward. To comply, Athens is considering unprecedented public-sector layoffs.

"Everyone is turning the screw," said David Lea, an analyst at Control Risks, an independent risk consultancy. "There is a gradual loss of confidence across Europe in Greece's ability to deliver on its reforms."

There is, too, a loss of confidence in European leaders' ability to sort out the mess. Europe's failure so far to rescue its first patient has had immense consequences for the 17-nation euro zone, despite the fact that Greece's economy is but a tiny fraction of it.

There are problems both with Greece's first bailout, of €110 billion ($150.7 billion), granted in May 2010, and with the second, of a similar size, provisionally agreed to this July.

The first bailout requires Greece to reform its finances and its economy, and to meet tough targets for increases in revenue and cuts in expenditure. But for more than a year, European leaders have overpromised on Greece's ability to change. The rosy estimates have led them to provide insufficient sums of rescue aid, requiring a cavalcade of revisions and adjustments to make the numbers line up. That has bred resentment among taxpayers in northern Europe footing the bill, particularly in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.

Inspectors from the EU are conducting a regular review of Greece's progress this month—a review that already has been halted once amid concerns that the country won't hit deficit targets. The budget inspectors must sign off before Greece receives its next slice of the first bailout.

The second bailout, struck in July, is a consequence of two miscalculations in the first bailout. First, the accretion of wider-than-expected deficits means Greece needs more money than originally planned. Second, the bailout planners assumed Greece would be able to borrow long-term money on its own from financial markets. That won't happen any time soon.

Key to achieving consent for the second bailout was a plan for Greece's private-sector creditors to defer repayment on their loans for as much as 30 years, and in some cases to suffer losses on their principal. That alleviates some of the need for fresh public money.

That program targets €135 billion in deferments, or about 90% of the volume of Greek bonds maturing through 2020. But a top official of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said this week that investors holding only about 75% of the relevant Greek bonds have agreed to participate.

Greece had asked bondholders to return questionnaires about their willingness by Friday; results weren't available Friday night.

Hung Tran, deputy managing director of the Institute of International Finance, the financial-industry trade group that assembled the debt-restructuring plan, said meetings with bondholders would continue this month, and that it was impossible to give a figure for participation. But, he said, he has seen a "very high degree of interest" among holders and is confident that the 90% target will be met.

Another plan meant to offset public money is a huge sale of Greek state assets. The second bailout assumes €5 billion in receipts could be achieved by the end of this year. Greek officials say that won't happen; one cabinet minister estimates at best half that much will occur.

Bigger deficits, lower deferments from private credits and lower receipts from the privatization program all have the same consequence: Either more aid is needed, or Greece needs to slash its budget further.

Hence the dangerous stalemate. Northern countries are balking at any more aid, and the Greek public is balking at any more cuts.

The giant public-sector slimming—as many as 120,000 public workers could be eliminated—that Greece is contemplating threatens to upend decades of cozy ties between the ruling Socialist party and those workers, who have long formed a key constituency.

Earlier this week, nine Socialist lawmakers criticized the plan in a letter to ministers. Mr. Papandreou has only a slender margin in Parliament, and a government collapse would be debilitating.

Meanwhile, Thessaloniki is preparing for massive unrest this weekend. Police are erecting metal barricades to prevent protestors from storming the grounds of the Thessaloniki International Trade Fair, where Mr. Papandreou will deliver his speech.

"The protests this year seem likely to be much bigger than in any past year," said one police official in the city. "But the situation in Greece is very difficult, so there are more things to protest about."

— Costas Paris in London contributed to this article.

[admin]

US busca a tres individuos que se piensa son los que realizaran otro ataque a US.