por admin » Jue Jun 10, 2010 7:15 pm
El Peru sube sus intereses a 1.75% debido a que la economia esta creciendo de manera robusta y existe la amenaza de la inflacion.
Peru Raises Rate to 1.75% as GDP Growth Fuels Inflation Threat
By John Quigley
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Peru’s central bank raised its benchmark lending rate today for a second straight month as economic growth and inflation exceed economists’ estimates.
The seven-member board, led by President Julio Velarde, increased its reference rate by a quarter point to 1.75 percent from 1.50 percent, matching the forecasts of 12 of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts expected the bank to pause.
The decision follows last month’s unexpected quarter-point increase of the benchmark rate from a record low 1.25 percent, the first raise since September 2008, amid signs of growing business and household spending. The bank will raise borrowing costs at a steady pace in the months ahead after growth beat expectations and May’s inflation rate was higher than forecast, said David Beker, chief Latin American economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York.
“It makes sense to hike again now to send a consistent message to the market,” Beker said in a phone interview.
Peru was the second Latin American country after Brazil to raise borrowing costs in 2010 as a recovery in private investment spurs domestic demand. Chile next week will increase its lending rate from the record low 0.5 percent in place since July, according to the central bank’s a bi-weekly survey of traders and investors.
Growth Perspectives
Peru’s “scorching” recovery prompted Morgan Stanley this week to increase its 2010 economic growth forecast to 7 percent from 4.9 percent.
Velarde, speaking at the Bloomberg Peru Economic Summit yesterday in Lima, said the economy is growing with “lots of force” in the second quarter, though so far he sees no signs of demand-side pressures on inflation.
Finance Minister Mercedes Araoz said reports that the economy is overheating are “exaggerated” and that any new steps to cool growth are the responsibility of the central bank.
“An economy growing at 6 percent isn’t overheating,” Araoz said at the conference in Lima yesterday. “Overheating is growth of 9 or 10 percent.”
Economists raised their growth forecasts for this year to 6 percent from 5.5 percent previously in a monthly central bank survey published June 5. The analysts kept their annual inflation forecast at 2.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund expects Peru’s economy to grow 6.3 percent in 2010, faster than all of its neighbors in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Prices for food and services are starting to reflect demand pressures, according to Jorge Gonzalez Izquierdo, head of economics at the Lima’s Pacifico University.
Gauging Inflation
Consumer prices climbed faster than economists forecast in May amid higher food and fuel costs. Annual inflation entered the central bank’s 1 to 3 percent target range for the first time in eight months, with prices climbing 1.04 percent from a year earlier and 0.24 percent from April.
The central bank plans to tighten monetary policy to ensure consumer prices are stable while demand strengthens, Velarde said in a statement published last week in the state gazette. Inflation will remain within the target range and reach 2.2 percent by year-end, he said yesterday.
The central bank said May 28 the economy may expand 6.2 percent this year as investment spurs demand. The bank had forecast growth this year of 5.5 percent in a March 26 report.
South America’s sixth-largest economy expanded 8.8 percent in March from a year earlier and according to a June 2 report by BBVA Banco Continental could post year-on-year growth of 8.7 percent for April, as construction and manufacturing increase.
Recovering private investment will enable the government to trim 2.3 billion soles ($808 million) from the budget for services and investment projects after rising spending threatened to push the fiscal deficit to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product, over the authorized limit, Araoz said May 13.
The government aims to cut the fiscal deficit to 1.6 percent this year from 1.9 percent last year.
The Peruvian sol gained 1.5 percent this year through yesterday, the sixth-best performance among 26 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.