Demandan a Deloitte por US$ 7,600 millones por crisis hipotecaria del 2008
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 09:06hs • actualizado 09:13hs comentarios
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd fue acusada de no lograr detectar fraude durante auditorías hechas en una de las mayores firmas hipotecarias privadas que colapsó durante el desplome del mercado inmobiliario de Estados Unidos.
Un fideicomiso que está supervisando la quiebra de Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp (TBW), y una de sus subsidiarias presentaron una demanda ante un tribunal de Florida contra la firma contable y de consultoría más grande del mundo reclamando pérdidas combinadas de 7,600 millones de dólares.
Deloitte "certificó que TBW era una compañía solvente, viable, con precisos estados financieros cada año desde el 2001 hasta el 2008", señala uno de los reclamos presentados.
"A pesar de la acreditación y experiencia de Deloitte como una de las '4 Grandes" empresas contables, esas declaraciones y las otras imágenes optimistas que proporcionó de TBW eran completamente falsas", agrega la demanda.
El portavoz de Deloitte [DLTE.UL] Jonathan Gandal dijo que "los reclamos son totalmente infundados".
Esta es la más reciente de una serie de demandas que han golpeado a las principales firmas contables por su papel en la crisis de crédito.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers, KPMG y Ernst & Young también enfrentan acusaciones respecto a sus estándares de auditoría por parte de inversores que buscan colectivamente recuperar miles de millones de dólares que perdieron en la crisis financiera.
Lee Farkas, el ex presidente de Taylor, Bean and Whitaker, fue sentenciado en abril a 30 años en prisión por ser el cerebro de lo que los funcionarios estadounidenses describieron como uno de los fraudes más grande de la historia.
Los funcionarios del Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos dijeron que Farkas llevó a cabo un fraude de 2,900 millones de dólares que provocó la caída y el colapso de una de los bancos regionales más grandes de Estados Unidos, el Colonial Bank.
Farkas fue acusado de ejecutar un amplio plan para cubrir las enormes pérdidas en Taylor, Bean que tenía sede en Ocala (Florida), moviendo fondos entre cuentas en Colonial Bank y también mediante la venta de préstamos hipotecarios que o bien no existían, no poseían valor alguno, o ya habían sido vendidos.
Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumidor
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por Arnold » Mar Sep 27, 2011 1:48 pm
- Arnold
- Mensajes: 1251
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:45 am
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por Arnold » Mar Sep 27, 2011 1:50 pm
Canon para regiones subirá en S/. 600 millones el 2012
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 09:51hs • actualizado 09:59hs comentarios
El jefe del Gabinete Ministerial, Salomón Lerner Ghittis, aclaró esta noche que el gravamen minero no afectará la recaudación del canon, el cual se incrementará en 600 millones de soles más el próximo año.
Explicó que este incremento responde a los nuevos proyectos mineros que se iniciarán próximamente en el país.
"El próximo año habrá más ingreso del canon porque están ingresando nuevos proyectos y nosotros estimamos alrededor de mil 200 millones de soles, de los cuales, el 50 por ciento es impuesto a la renta y se va a incrementar el canon en 600 millones de soles adicionales a lo que está ingresando en el año 2011", dijo.
Lerner explicó que el gravamen minero acordado no afectará el atractivo del país para las inversiones y por el contrario se prevé en este sector un fuerte flujo de inversiones para el próximo quinquenio.
"La mayor parte de mineros nos han ratificado que van a hacer inversiones en Perú, lo del banco en proyectos de inversiones es de casi 30 mil millones de dólares para los próximos cinco años", precisó.
Consultado sobre un eventual incremento del Impuesto General a las Ventas (IGV), Lerner Ghittis, descartó que exista un aumento a dicha tasa que en la actualidad se encuentra en un 18 por ciento.
Acerca de la promulgada Ley de Consulta Previa, el jefe del Gabinete Ministerial, aclaró que se aplicará en el momento en que se apruebe el reglamento por lo que no puede ser retroactiva.
De otro lado, sobre el tema de la corrupción en el país, ratificó que en la administración de gobierno del presidente Ollanta Humala, se buscará desterrar este flagelo definitivamente del sector público.
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 09:51hs • actualizado 09:59hs comentarios
El jefe del Gabinete Ministerial, Salomón Lerner Ghittis, aclaró esta noche que el gravamen minero no afectará la recaudación del canon, el cual se incrementará en 600 millones de soles más el próximo año.
Explicó que este incremento responde a los nuevos proyectos mineros que se iniciarán próximamente en el país.
"El próximo año habrá más ingreso del canon porque están ingresando nuevos proyectos y nosotros estimamos alrededor de mil 200 millones de soles, de los cuales, el 50 por ciento es impuesto a la renta y se va a incrementar el canon en 600 millones de soles adicionales a lo que está ingresando en el año 2011", dijo.
Lerner explicó que el gravamen minero acordado no afectará el atractivo del país para las inversiones y por el contrario se prevé en este sector un fuerte flujo de inversiones para el próximo quinquenio.
"La mayor parte de mineros nos han ratificado que van a hacer inversiones en Perú, lo del banco en proyectos de inversiones es de casi 30 mil millones de dólares para los próximos cinco años", precisó.
Consultado sobre un eventual incremento del Impuesto General a las Ventas (IGV), Lerner Ghittis, descartó que exista un aumento a dicha tasa que en la actualidad se encuentra en un 18 por ciento.
Acerca de la promulgada Ley de Consulta Previa, el jefe del Gabinete Ministerial, aclaró que se aplicará en el momento en que se apruebe el reglamento por lo que no puede ser retroactiva.
De otro lado, sobre el tema de la corrupción en el país, ratificó que en la administración de gobierno del presidente Ollanta Humala, se buscará desterrar este flagelo definitivamente del sector público.
- Arnold
- Mensajes: 1251
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:45 am
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por Arnold » Mar Sep 27, 2011 1:53 pm
Nueva York lanza la segunda edición de Semana Latina
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 11:27hs • actualizado 13:06hs comentarios
La ciudad de Nueva York lanza el lunes próximo la segunda edición de su Semana Latina, con un programa que incluye conferencias empresariales, conciertos, presentaciones de filmes, obras de teatro y hasta un circo.
La Semana de los Medios y el Entretenimiento Latinos (LMEW, según sus siglas en inglés), que tendrá lugar del 3 al 9 de octubre, "mostrará el talento, el crecimiento y la diversidad del Nueva York latino", con el objetivo a largo plazo de que la ciudad "se convierta en el centro global latino económico y cultural", indicaron los organizadores en un comunicado.
La semana se iniciará con dos conferencias de negocios en las que empresarios de los medios, entretenimiento, tecnología y marcas líderes hispanos compartirán sus puntos de vista acerca de la situación del mercado.
"Los líderes empresariales se levantan todos los días pensando en los mercados digital y latino como los dos mayores impulsores de crecimiento económico en los EEUU", señaló Randy Falco, presidente del canal Univisión, basado en Nueva York, al referirse a la creciente importancia del sector.
Entre las actividades previstas se encuentran muestras multidisciplinarias como "Re-Imaginings", que combina fotografía y teatro, y una feria del libro con 70 artistas que representan a 23 países latinoamericanos.
La semana incluirá la proyección de filmes, entre ellos nuevas producciones como "La Toma" (Colombia-Sudáfrica, 2011), que cuenta la ocupación del Palacio de Justicia en Bogotá por parte de la guerrilla del M-19, o clásico latinos como "La Ultima Cena" (Cuba, 1976).
Del lado de la música, se prevé un tributo al percusionista Eugene Gene Golden y un concierto del pianista mexicano César Reyes.
El ecléctico programa anuncia también al "Circo Hermanos Vázquez", creado en México en 1969 y considerado como el más grande de habla hispana en Estados Unidos.
Varias de las actividades involucran al Museo del Barrio, una de la más importantes instituciones culturales latinas de Nueva York, que recibe a más de 250.000 visitantes por año.
Este año, la LMEW presentó un informe que compara la situación en Nueva York y otras ciudades de Estados Unidos con grandes núcleos de población latina, como Los Angeles.
"La Semana de medios y entretenimiento latinos es un ejemplo excelente del motivo por el que la ciudad de Nueva York sigue siendo un destino floreciente para líderes hispanos del emprendimiento y la cultura", dijo el alcalde Michael Bloomberg.
Bloomberg creó en 2003 una Comisión de Medios y Entretenimiento Latino, encargada de aconsejar sobre estrategias para mantener y expandir las producciones, negocios y oportunidades de trabajo relacionados con esos sectores en Nueva York
La comisión está integrada por líderes de la industria y tiene como presidentes honorarios a Jennifer López y Robert De Niro.
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 11:27hs • actualizado 13:06hs comentarios
La ciudad de Nueva York lanza el lunes próximo la segunda edición de su Semana Latina, con un programa que incluye conferencias empresariales, conciertos, presentaciones de filmes, obras de teatro y hasta un circo.
La Semana de los Medios y el Entretenimiento Latinos (LMEW, según sus siglas en inglés), que tendrá lugar del 3 al 9 de octubre, "mostrará el talento, el crecimiento y la diversidad del Nueva York latino", con el objetivo a largo plazo de que la ciudad "se convierta en el centro global latino económico y cultural", indicaron los organizadores en un comunicado.
La semana se iniciará con dos conferencias de negocios en las que empresarios de los medios, entretenimiento, tecnología y marcas líderes hispanos compartirán sus puntos de vista acerca de la situación del mercado.
"Los líderes empresariales se levantan todos los días pensando en los mercados digital y latino como los dos mayores impulsores de crecimiento económico en los EEUU", señaló Randy Falco, presidente del canal Univisión, basado en Nueva York, al referirse a la creciente importancia del sector.
Entre las actividades previstas se encuentran muestras multidisciplinarias como "Re-Imaginings", que combina fotografía y teatro, y una feria del libro con 70 artistas que representan a 23 países latinoamericanos.
La semana incluirá la proyección de filmes, entre ellos nuevas producciones como "La Toma" (Colombia-Sudáfrica, 2011), que cuenta la ocupación del Palacio de Justicia en Bogotá por parte de la guerrilla del M-19, o clásico latinos como "La Ultima Cena" (Cuba, 1976).
Del lado de la música, se prevé un tributo al percusionista Eugene Gene Golden y un concierto del pianista mexicano César Reyes.
El ecléctico programa anuncia también al "Circo Hermanos Vázquez", creado en México en 1969 y considerado como el más grande de habla hispana en Estados Unidos.
Varias de las actividades involucran al Museo del Barrio, una de la más importantes instituciones culturales latinas de Nueva York, que recibe a más de 250.000 visitantes por año.
Este año, la LMEW presentó un informe que compara la situación en Nueva York y otras ciudades de Estados Unidos con grandes núcleos de población latina, como Los Angeles.
"La Semana de medios y entretenimiento latinos es un ejemplo excelente del motivo por el que la ciudad de Nueva York sigue siendo un destino floreciente para líderes hispanos del emprendimiento y la cultura", dijo el alcalde Michael Bloomberg.
Bloomberg creó en 2003 una Comisión de Medios y Entretenimiento Latino, encargada de aconsejar sobre estrategias para mantener y expandir las producciones, negocios y oportunidades de trabajo relacionados con esos sectores en Nueva York
La comisión está integrada por líderes de la industria y tiene como presidentes honorarios a Jennifer López y Robert De Niro.
- Arnold
- Mensajes: 1251
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:45 am
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por Arnold » Mar Sep 27, 2011 1:54 pm
Barroso debate mañana en Estrasburgo la salida de la peor crisis del euro
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 13:38hs comentarios
Bruselas, 27 sep (EFE).- El presidente de la Comisión Europea, José Manuel Durao Barroso, debatirá mañana en el Parlamento Europeo de Estrasburgo la salida de la peor crisis del euro, unas horas antes de que el pleno de la Eurocámara vote la nueva gobernanza económica para poner a raya a los países que incumplan los objetivos de déficit y deuda.
Barroso ofrecerá ante los eurodiputados su discurso anual del estado de la Unión, en el que se espera que aclare el futuro del segundo rescate griego y dé nuevos datos sobre su propuesta para unas obligaciones públicas europeas, los eurobonos, como herramienta para aliviar la financiación en los mercados de la deuda pública europea.
Mientras pende de un hilo el segundo rescate para Atenas, los eurodiputados darán presumiblemente luz verde, y gracias al respaldo de los grupos popular (PPE) y liberal (ALDE) de la Eurocámara, al paquete legislativo, conocido como "six pack", que dará poderes sancionadores limitados a la Comisión Europea en caso de déficit y deuda excesivos, así como de desequilibrios macroeconómicos graves.
Bruselas podrá imponer multas equivalentes al 0,2 % del PIB al país que infrinja el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento (PEC) -que fija topes del 3 % del PIB para el déficit y del 60 % para la deuda- y del 0,1 % del PIB en casos de desequilibrios macroeconómicos graves como la pérdida sostenida de competitividad, el crecimiento excesivo del crédito y las burbujas inmobiliarias.
El sistema de sanciones -basado en dos fases, una preventiva y otra correctiva- no será automático sino que se requerirá la aprobación por parte de los gobiernos nacionales mediante un complejo sistema de mayorías normales e inversas, que en última instancia prevé un posible veto de los países siempre que 9 de los 17 socios del euro estén de acuerdo.
Mientras los países han ejercido presión para conseguir este resultado, el PE ha luchado hasta el último momento para conseguir que la sanciones fueran automáticas a propuesta de la CE.
El paquete legislativo de gobierno económico para evitar futuras crisis prevé asimismo la introducción de indicadores más precisos para detectar desequilibrios macroeconómicos, como las burbujas inmobiliarias.
En el objetivo de Bruselas no sólo estarán los países con alto déficit sino también los que, como Alemania, exportan mucho más que importan, y, por tanto, tienen un desequilibrio en su cuenta corriente.
Esos países teóricamente podrían también ser multados, aunque en la práctica parece poco probable que esto ocurra, según indicaron fuentes comunitarias, ya que, aunque conviene detectar si su superávit se debe a algún problema en el país que esté sujetando el consumo o la inversión nacional, su situación no es insostenible.
La nueva normativa europea se centrará también en evitar que se repitan episodios como el de Grecia, que falseó sus datos y estadísticas económicas.
A partir de ahora, los países de la zona del euro que falsifiquen sus estadísticas sobre déficit y deuda tendrán que afrontar una multa del 0,2 % del PIB, un logro conseguido por el PE durante las intensas negociaciones de los últimos meses.
Para mejorar la transparencia y, a falta de un ministro europeo de asuntos Económicos, los titulares de Finanzas de los países de la UE deberán dar cuenta sobre sus decisiones al pleno de Estrasburgo y someterse a preguntas de los eurodiputados de los Veintisiete. EFE
27 de Septiembre de 2011 • 13:38hs comentarios
Bruselas, 27 sep (EFE).- El presidente de la Comisión Europea, José Manuel Durao Barroso, debatirá mañana en el Parlamento Europeo de Estrasburgo la salida de la peor crisis del euro, unas horas antes de que el pleno de la Eurocámara vote la nueva gobernanza económica para poner a raya a los países que incumplan los objetivos de déficit y deuda.
Barroso ofrecerá ante los eurodiputados su discurso anual del estado de la Unión, en el que se espera que aclare el futuro del segundo rescate griego y dé nuevos datos sobre su propuesta para unas obligaciones públicas europeas, los eurobonos, como herramienta para aliviar la financiación en los mercados de la deuda pública europea.
Mientras pende de un hilo el segundo rescate para Atenas, los eurodiputados darán presumiblemente luz verde, y gracias al respaldo de los grupos popular (PPE) y liberal (ALDE) de la Eurocámara, al paquete legislativo, conocido como "six pack", que dará poderes sancionadores limitados a la Comisión Europea en caso de déficit y deuda excesivos, así como de desequilibrios macroeconómicos graves.
Bruselas podrá imponer multas equivalentes al 0,2 % del PIB al país que infrinja el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento (PEC) -que fija topes del 3 % del PIB para el déficit y del 60 % para la deuda- y del 0,1 % del PIB en casos de desequilibrios macroeconómicos graves como la pérdida sostenida de competitividad, el crecimiento excesivo del crédito y las burbujas inmobiliarias.
El sistema de sanciones -basado en dos fases, una preventiva y otra correctiva- no será automático sino que se requerirá la aprobación por parte de los gobiernos nacionales mediante un complejo sistema de mayorías normales e inversas, que en última instancia prevé un posible veto de los países siempre que 9 de los 17 socios del euro estén de acuerdo.
Mientras los países han ejercido presión para conseguir este resultado, el PE ha luchado hasta el último momento para conseguir que la sanciones fueran automáticas a propuesta de la CE.
El paquete legislativo de gobierno económico para evitar futuras crisis prevé asimismo la introducción de indicadores más precisos para detectar desequilibrios macroeconómicos, como las burbujas inmobiliarias.
En el objetivo de Bruselas no sólo estarán los países con alto déficit sino también los que, como Alemania, exportan mucho más que importan, y, por tanto, tienen un desequilibrio en su cuenta corriente.
Esos países teóricamente podrían también ser multados, aunque en la práctica parece poco probable que esto ocurra, según indicaron fuentes comunitarias, ya que, aunque conviene detectar si su superávit se debe a algún problema en el país que esté sujetando el consumo o la inversión nacional, su situación no es insostenible.
La nueva normativa europea se centrará también en evitar que se repitan episodios como el de Grecia, que falseó sus datos y estadísticas económicas.
A partir de ahora, los países de la zona del euro que falsifiquen sus estadísticas sobre déficit y deuda tendrán que afrontar una multa del 0,2 % del PIB, un logro conseguido por el PE durante las intensas negociaciones de los últimos meses.
Para mejorar la transparencia y, a falta de un ministro europeo de asuntos Económicos, los titulares de Finanzas de los países de la UE deberán dar cuenta sobre sus decisiones al pleno de Estrasburgo y someterse a preguntas de los eurodiputados de los Veintisiete. EFE
- Arnold
- Mensajes: 1251
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:45 am
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por Victor VE » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:08 pm
Mi SAB dice que puedo llevar la documentacion para que finalmente ellos mismo hagan la gestión, a cambio tengo que portarme con un cevichito 
- Victor VE
- Mensajes: 2987
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:33 am
Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:12 pm
Aqui estan las gracias de Lula, el que segun muchos fue el mejor presidente de Brasil, por favor, no nos dejemos enganar!!! Lula dejo bombas de tiempo que la verdad pensaba iban a demorar mas en explotar. Bonito pastel le dejaron a Rouseff aunque se lo merece por que ella no es mejor que Lula, son los dos del mismo partido izquierdista que esta mal manejadando ese pais.
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El Bovespa ha perdido 22% en lo que va del anio.
Cinco de sus minnistros han renunciado por malversacion de fondos publicos.
La inflacion es del 7.2%
Los prestamos a los negocios ha subido al 47% del PBI del 24% que dejo Lula.
Lula elevo en el 2010 la deuda del gobierno al 22.3% del PBI a $378 billones.
El anio pasado se dieron $110 billones de prestamos baratos para proyectos como plantas de energia nuclear, carreteras, etc. y otros 40% prestados a otros paises y al Banco Mundial.
La banca comerical tambien ha generado inflacion. Con intereses en casi zero en US y Europa, los bancos se han prestado dinero en esos paises a intereses bajos y los han prestado en Brasil a intereses mas altos, haciendo que Tombini tenga que tomar medidas para ajustar la liquidez y remover 61 billones de reales de circulacion y para prevenir una burbuja crediticia. (estas son las porquerias que causan lo gobiernos)
Los altos intereses han atraido a los inversionistas especuladores al mercado de bonos de Brasil, agregando mas lenia al fuego por lo que el real ha subido 27% respecto al dolar desde el 2008. El real fuerte ha hecho mas caras las exportaciones y mas baratas las importaciones lo cual ha causado una avalancha de productos Chinos en Brasil, perjudicando a los productores Brasileros. (al gobierno deberian tirarle una bomba, todos esos son unos incopetentes)
Este mes el real ha caido 13% frente al dolar ya que los inversionistas han salido de los mercados emergentes ante el temor de los problemas de Europa y han estancado a la economia global.
La caida puede causar que Rousseff mejore su imagen frente a los exportadoers y productores, aunque generara mas inflacion al incrementar el precio de los productos importados.
El alza de los intereses hace que el costo de prestarse dinero sea mas alto y mas caro para el gobierno el financiar las carreteras y ls proyectos de construccion en Brasil. La preparacion de Brasil para el mundial y las olimpiadas costara $886 billones hasta el 2014.
Brasil tiene que recortar su presupuesto.
Brasil necesita tomar medidas de austeridad, Ramos dice que nunca ha visto una economia con tantos problemas macro que no pueden solucionarse con una sola medida.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Ri
Rousseff Crisis Spurred by Lula Debts Coming Due as Brazil Boom Diminishes
By Alexander Ragir - Sep 27, 2011 12:01 AM ET Bloomberg Markets Magazine.
On a cool July evening, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff hosts a cocktail party for 50 leaders of her governing coalition, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. Speaking from the foot of a red-carpeted staircase in the living room of Alvorada Palace, where she lives with her mother and aunt, Rousseff tells the gathered politicians that these are the best times for Brazil, according to four people who attended.
“The world is going through economic and financial turbulence,” says Rousseff, who’s dressed in a black pantsuit. “But we’re living through a great moment.”
In a toast, Dilma, as she’s known to almost all Brazilians, juxtaposes the task of managing the country’s new economic prosperity with U.S. President Barack Obama’s struggle with the Republicans to get the U.S. government budget under control.
“And up there, they only have two parties,” she jokes.
Brazil has 27.
Rousseff, 63, inherited just about everything a president could want from her mentor and predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: an economy growing at a 7.5 percent annual pace and unemployment, at 5.3 percent, that was the lowest since at least 2001. Brazil’s Bovespa stock market index rose six-fold during Lula’s eight-year tenure, as iron ore, soybean and sugar exports boomed, driven in large part by demand from China.
Lula pulled 24.5 million people out of poverty in his years in office, according to data compiled by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, and Rousseff says that in the next four years, she will eliminate extreme poverty in Brazil.
A Miracle Subdued
Yet Rousseff took office in what has turned out to be a rocky period for Brazil’s economic miracle. Her government and Brazil’s economy have been hit with a series of setbacks. Brazil’s subdued mood may be best captured by the swoon in its stock prices: The Bovespa index was down 22 percent in 2011 as of yesterday.
The bad news spills over into politics. From June to September, five of Rousseff’s cabinet ministers resigned, four of them after the police or the press made allegations they had misused public money.
On Aug. 17, Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi stepped down after Veja magazine alleged he had illegally used his influence for personal gain. Rossi denies wrongdoing. His PMDB party, with 80 deputies in the 513-member lower house, is a crucial part of the 15-party governing coalition led by Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, which itself has just 86 Assembly seats.
Inflation Affliction
On the economic side, Brazil is once again suffering from an old affliction: inflation. Consumer prices, as measured by Brazil’s IPCA index, rose 7.2 percent during the 12 months ended in August. Though mild compared with the country’s legendary hyperinflation -- which peaked at an annual rate of 6,821 percent in April 1990 -- the price increases are eroding some of the progress Lula and Rousseff, who used to be his chief of staff, have made at reducing poverty and building a middle class.
The dilemma for Rousseff’s government is that officials don’t want the fight against inflation to choke off economic growth. From January to July, central bank President Alexandre Tombini responded to the inflation threat by raising Brazil’s benchmark interest rate five times.
Then, on Aug. 31, to the surprise of analysts, the central bank lowered the rate, to 12 percent from 12.5 percent. Even after the cut, Brazil’s rate was the highest among the Group of 20 nations, representing the world’s largest economies.
Global Downturn
The central bank’s rationale for the rate cut was that a “substantial deterioration” in global economic growth will also slow Brazil’s expansion and push down inflation.
“Even assuming that they’re correct on their overly bearish view on Brazil’s economy, they’re clearly putting growth above their inflation target,” says Tony Volpon, Latin America strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “The outcome in the long run will be higher overall inflation.”
Despite the global economic gloom, Will Landers, who manages $8.5 billion in Latin American stocks at New York-based BlackRock Inc., sees only blue sky for Brazil’s economy.
“The natural resources aren’t going away, global food demand isn’t going anywhere and the middle class will continue to develop,” Landers says. “The domestic consumption story is unparalleled. It’s still a great place to invest.”
There are two immediate culprits behind what is the worst inflation in six years: skyrocketing credit and heavy spending by the government. Bank lending to businesses and consumers stood at 47 percent of GDP as of July, up from 24 percent when Lula took office in 2003, according to the central bank.
Lula’s Mixed Legacy
And in the run-up to the Oct. 31, 2010, election that put Rousseff into the presidency, Lula spent lavishly. Government spending in 2010 jumped 22.3 percent to 700 billion reais ($378 billion).
To tame inflation, Rousseff pledged on Feb. 9 to cut 50 billion reais from the 2011 budget. She also needs to cut the government subsidies that allow the National Development Bank to lend money at cheap rates, says Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former central bank director who’s now a partner at New York-based hedge fund Tandem Global Partners LLC. The bank handed out a record $101 billion in loans last year for projects such as building nuclear power plants, dams and roads and improving the electrical grid -- 40 percent more than the $72.2 billion loaned to countries around the globe by the World Bank.
Carry Trade
Commercial banks have also contributed to the inflation spiral. With near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, banks have been borrowing at low rates abroad and then lending at higher rates in Brazil, prompting Tombini to tighten bank liquidity requirements, a move that he says has removed 61 billion reais from circulation and helped prevent a credit bubble.
Brazil’s high interest rates have attracted speculative investors to Brazil’s bond market, adding fuel to the 27 percent rise in the value of the real against the dollar since the end of 2008. The strong real makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which has resulted in a flood of Chinese goods filling store shelves, hurting local manufacturers.
The real has fallen 13 percent this month against the dollar as investors have fled emerging market assets on concern Europe’s debt troubles will stall the global economy. The decline may improve Rousseff’s image with exporters and manufacturers, although it will fuel inflation by increasing prices for imported consumer goods, says Mauricio Rosal, an economist with Raymond James Financial Inc. in Sao Paulo.
“The real fell because of problems with Europe, but if a solution is found, the currency will bounce back,” Rosal says. “What’s happening in Europe isn’t going to solve Brazil’s structural problems.”
World Cup Costs Rise
Rising borrowing costs make government financing more expensive for the road improvements and other construction projects Brazil is undertaking to prepare for hosting the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. The government is building stadiums, housing and other facilities for the blacklisted_site and is also upgrading transportation and other infrastructure as part of an $886 billion investment plan through 2014.
Rousseff can attack all of her problems at once with a single measure: reducing the huge and growing government budget, says Alberto Ramos, a New York-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) specializing in Latin America. Since Lula took office, public spending has tracked GDP upward, with the economy growing to $2.1 trillion in 2010 from $552 billion in 2003.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio
--------
El Bovespa ha perdido 22% en lo que va del anio.
Cinco de sus minnistros han renunciado por malversacion de fondos publicos.
La inflacion es del 7.2%
Los prestamos a los negocios ha subido al 47% del PBI del 24% que dejo Lula.
Lula elevo en el 2010 la deuda del gobierno al 22.3% del PBI a $378 billones.
El anio pasado se dieron $110 billones de prestamos baratos para proyectos como plantas de energia nuclear, carreteras, etc. y otros 40% prestados a otros paises y al Banco Mundial.
La banca comerical tambien ha generado inflacion. Con intereses en casi zero en US y Europa, los bancos se han prestado dinero en esos paises a intereses bajos y los han prestado en Brasil a intereses mas altos, haciendo que Tombini tenga que tomar medidas para ajustar la liquidez y remover 61 billones de reales de circulacion y para prevenir una burbuja crediticia. (estas son las porquerias que causan lo gobiernos)
Los altos intereses han atraido a los inversionistas especuladores al mercado de bonos de Brasil, agregando mas lenia al fuego por lo que el real ha subido 27% respecto al dolar desde el 2008. El real fuerte ha hecho mas caras las exportaciones y mas baratas las importaciones lo cual ha causado una avalancha de productos Chinos en Brasil, perjudicando a los productores Brasileros. (al gobierno deberian tirarle una bomba, todos esos son unos incopetentes)
Este mes el real ha caido 13% frente al dolar ya que los inversionistas han salido de los mercados emergentes ante el temor de los problemas de Europa y han estancado a la economia global.
La caida puede causar que Rousseff mejore su imagen frente a los exportadoers y productores, aunque generara mas inflacion al incrementar el precio de los productos importados.
El alza de los intereses hace que el costo de prestarse dinero sea mas alto y mas caro para el gobierno el financiar las carreteras y ls proyectos de construccion en Brasil. La preparacion de Brasil para el mundial y las olimpiadas costara $886 billones hasta el 2014.
Brasil tiene que recortar su presupuesto.
Brasil necesita tomar medidas de austeridad, Ramos dice que nunca ha visto una economia con tantos problemas macro que no pueden solucionarse con una sola medida.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Ri
Rousseff Crisis Spurred by Lula Debts Coming Due as Brazil Boom Diminishes
By Alexander Ragir - Sep 27, 2011 12:01 AM ET Bloomberg Markets Magazine.
On a cool July evening, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff hosts a cocktail party for 50 leaders of her governing coalition, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. Speaking from the foot of a red-carpeted staircase in the living room of Alvorada Palace, where she lives with her mother and aunt, Rousseff tells the gathered politicians that these are the best times for Brazil, according to four people who attended.
“The world is going through economic and financial turbulence,” says Rousseff, who’s dressed in a black pantsuit. “But we’re living through a great moment.”
In a toast, Dilma, as she’s known to almost all Brazilians, juxtaposes the task of managing the country’s new economic prosperity with U.S. President Barack Obama’s struggle with the Republicans to get the U.S. government budget under control.
“And up there, they only have two parties,” she jokes.
Brazil has 27.
Rousseff, 63, inherited just about everything a president could want from her mentor and predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: an economy growing at a 7.5 percent annual pace and unemployment, at 5.3 percent, that was the lowest since at least 2001. Brazil’s Bovespa stock market index rose six-fold during Lula’s eight-year tenure, as iron ore, soybean and sugar exports boomed, driven in large part by demand from China.
Lula pulled 24.5 million people out of poverty in his years in office, according to data compiled by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, and Rousseff says that in the next four years, she will eliminate extreme poverty in Brazil.
A Miracle Subdued
Yet Rousseff took office in what has turned out to be a rocky period for Brazil’s economic miracle. Her government and Brazil’s economy have been hit with a series of setbacks. Brazil’s subdued mood may be best captured by the swoon in its stock prices: The Bovespa index was down 22 percent in 2011 as of yesterday.
The bad news spills over into politics. From June to September, five of Rousseff’s cabinet ministers resigned, four of them after the police or the press made allegations they had misused public money.
On Aug. 17, Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi stepped down after Veja magazine alleged he had illegally used his influence for personal gain. Rossi denies wrongdoing. His PMDB party, with 80 deputies in the 513-member lower house, is a crucial part of the 15-party governing coalition led by Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, which itself has just 86 Assembly seats.
Inflation Affliction
On the economic side, Brazil is once again suffering from an old affliction: inflation. Consumer prices, as measured by Brazil’s IPCA index, rose 7.2 percent during the 12 months ended in August. Though mild compared with the country’s legendary hyperinflation -- which peaked at an annual rate of 6,821 percent in April 1990 -- the price increases are eroding some of the progress Lula and Rousseff, who used to be his chief of staff, have made at reducing poverty and building a middle class.
The dilemma for Rousseff’s government is that officials don’t want the fight against inflation to choke off economic growth. From January to July, central bank President Alexandre Tombini responded to the inflation threat by raising Brazil’s benchmark interest rate five times.
Then, on Aug. 31, to the surprise of analysts, the central bank lowered the rate, to 12 percent from 12.5 percent. Even after the cut, Brazil’s rate was the highest among the Group of 20 nations, representing the world’s largest economies.
Global Downturn
The central bank’s rationale for the rate cut was that a “substantial deterioration” in global economic growth will also slow Brazil’s expansion and push down inflation.
“Even assuming that they’re correct on their overly bearish view on Brazil’s economy, they’re clearly putting growth above their inflation target,” says Tony Volpon, Latin America strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “The outcome in the long run will be higher overall inflation.”
Despite the global economic gloom, Will Landers, who manages $8.5 billion in Latin American stocks at New York-based BlackRock Inc., sees only blue sky for Brazil’s economy.
“The natural resources aren’t going away, global food demand isn’t going anywhere and the middle class will continue to develop,” Landers says. “The domestic consumption story is unparalleled. It’s still a great place to invest.”
There are two immediate culprits behind what is the worst inflation in six years: skyrocketing credit and heavy spending by the government. Bank lending to businesses and consumers stood at 47 percent of GDP as of July, up from 24 percent when Lula took office in 2003, according to the central bank.
Lula’s Mixed Legacy
And in the run-up to the Oct. 31, 2010, election that put Rousseff into the presidency, Lula spent lavishly. Government spending in 2010 jumped 22.3 percent to 700 billion reais ($378 billion).
To tame inflation, Rousseff pledged on Feb. 9 to cut 50 billion reais from the 2011 budget. She also needs to cut the government subsidies that allow the National Development Bank to lend money at cheap rates, says Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former central bank director who’s now a partner at New York-based hedge fund Tandem Global Partners LLC. The bank handed out a record $101 billion in loans last year for projects such as building nuclear power plants, dams and roads and improving the electrical grid -- 40 percent more than the $72.2 billion loaned to countries around the globe by the World Bank.
Carry Trade
Commercial banks have also contributed to the inflation spiral. With near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, banks have been borrowing at low rates abroad and then lending at higher rates in Brazil, prompting Tombini to tighten bank liquidity requirements, a move that he says has removed 61 billion reais from circulation and helped prevent a credit bubble.
Brazil’s high interest rates have attracted speculative investors to Brazil’s bond market, adding fuel to the 27 percent rise in the value of the real against the dollar since the end of 2008. The strong real makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which has resulted in a flood of Chinese goods filling store shelves, hurting local manufacturers.
The real has fallen 13 percent this month against the dollar as investors have fled emerging market assets on concern Europe’s debt troubles will stall the global economy. The decline may improve Rousseff’s image with exporters and manufacturers, although it will fuel inflation by increasing prices for imported consumer goods, says Mauricio Rosal, an economist with Raymond James Financial Inc. in Sao Paulo.
“The real fell because of problems with Europe, but if a solution is found, the currency will bounce back,” Rosal says. “What’s happening in Europe isn’t going to solve Brazil’s structural problems.”
World Cup Costs Rise
Rising borrowing costs make government financing more expensive for the road improvements and other construction projects Brazil is undertaking to prepare for hosting the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. The government is building stadiums, housing and other facilities for the blacklisted_site and is also upgrading transportation and other infrastructure as part of an $886 billion investment plan through 2014.
Rousseff can attack all of her problems at once with a single measure: reducing the huge and growing government budget, says Alberto Ramos, a New York-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) specializing in Latin America. Since Lula took office, public spending has tracked GDP upward, with the economy growing to $2.1 trillion in 2010 from $552 billion in 2003.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio
- admin
- Site Admin
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:13 pm
Aqui estan las gracias de Lula, el que segun muchos fue el mejor presidente de Brasil, por favor, no nos dejemos enganar!!! Lula dejo bombas de tiempo que la verdad pensaba iban a demorar mas en explotar. Bonito pastel le dejaron a Rouseff aunque se lo merece por que ella no es mejor que Lula, son los dos del mismo partido izquierdista que esta mal manejadando ese pais.
--------
El Bovespa ha perdido 22% en lo que va del anio.
Cinco de sus minnistros han renunciado por malversacion de fondos publicos.
La inflacion es del 7.2%
Los prestamos a los negocios ha subido al 47% del PBI del 24% que dejo Lula.
Lula elevo en el 2010 la deuda del gobierno al 22.3% del PBI a $378 billones.
El anio pasado se dieron $110 billones de prestamos baratos para proyectos como plantas de energia nuclear, carreteras, etc. y otros 40% prestados a otros paises y al Banco Mundial.
La banca comerical tambien ha generado inflacion. Con intereses en casi zero en US y Europa, los bancos se han prestado dinero en esos paises a intereses bajos y los han prestado en Brasil a intereses mas altos, haciendo que Tombini tenga que tomar medidas para ajustar la liquidez y remover 61 billones de reales de circulacion y para prevenir una burbuja crediticia. (estas son las porquerias que causan lo gobiernos)
Los altos intereses han atraido a los inversionistas especuladores al mercado de bonos de Brasil, agregando mas lenia al fuego por lo que el real ha subido 27% respecto al dolar desde el 2008. El real fuerte ha hecho mas caras las exportaciones y mas baratas las importaciones lo cual ha causado una avalancha de productos Chinos en Brasil, perjudicando a los productores Brasileros. (al gobierno deberian tirarle una bomba, todos esos son unos incopetentes)
Este mes el real ha caido 13% frente al dolar ya que los inversionistas han salido de los mercados emergentes ante el temor de los problemas de Europa y han estancado a la economia global.
La caida puede causar que Rousseff mejore su imagen frente a los exportadoers y productores, aunque generara mas inflacion al incrementar el precio de los productos importados.
El alza de los intereses hace que el costo de prestarse dinero sea mas alto y mas caro para el gobierno el financiar las carreteras y ls proyectos de construccion en Brasil. La preparacion de Brasil para el mundial y las olimpiadas costara $886 billones hasta el 2014.
Brasil tiene que recortar su presupuesto.
Brasil necesita tomar medidas de austeridad, Ramos dice que nunca ha visto una economia con tantos problemas macro que no pueden solucionarse con una sola medida.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Ri
Rousseff Crisis Spurred by Lula Debts Coming Due as Brazil Boom Diminishes
By Alexander Ragir - Sep 27, 2011 12:01 AM ET Bloomberg Markets Magazine.
On a cool July evening, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff hosts a cocktail party for 50 leaders of her governing coalition, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. Speaking from the foot of a red-carpeted staircase in the living room of Alvorada Palace, where she lives with her mother and aunt, Rousseff tells the gathered politicians that these are the best times for Brazil, according to four people who attended.
“The world is going through economic and financial turbulence,” says Rousseff, who’s dressed in a black pantsuit. “But we’re living through a great moment.”
In a toast, Dilma, as she’s known to almost all Brazilians, juxtaposes the task of managing the country’s new economic prosperity with U.S. President Barack Obama’s struggle with the Republicans to get the U.S. government budget under control.
“And up there, they only have two parties,” she jokes.
Brazil has 27.
Rousseff, 63, inherited just about everything a president could want from her mentor and predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: an economy growing at a 7.5 percent annual pace and unemployment, at 5.3 percent, that was the lowest since at least 2001. Brazil’s Bovespa stock market index rose six-fold during Lula’s eight-year tenure, as iron ore, soybean and sugar exports boomed, driven in large part by demand from China.
Lula pulled 24.5 million people out of poverty in his years in office, according to data compiled by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, and Rousseff says that in the next four years, she will eliminate extreme poverty in Brazil.
A Miracle Subdued
Yet Rousseff took office in what has turned out to be a rocky period for Brazil’s economic miracle. Her government and Brazil’s economy have been hit with a series of setbacks. Brazil’s subdued mood may be best captured by the swoon in its stock prices: The Bovespa index was down 22 percent in 2011 as of yesterday.
The bad news spills over into politics. From June to September, five of Rousseff’s cabinet ministers resigned, four of them after the police or the press made allegations they had misused public money.
On Aug. 17, Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi stepped down after Veja magazine alleged he had illegally used his influence for personal gain. Rossi denies wrongdoing. His PMDB party, with 80 deputies in the 513-member lower house, is a crucial part of the 15-party governing coalition led by Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, which itself has just 86 Assembly seats.
Inflation Affliction
On the economic side, Brazil is once again suffering from an old affliction: inflation. Consumer prices, as measured by Brazil’s IPCA index, rose 7.2 percent during the 12 months ended in August. Though mild compared with the country’s legendary hyperinflation -- which peaked at an annual rate of 6,821 percent in April 1990 -- the price increases are eroding some of the progress Lula and Rousseff, who used to be his chief of staff, have made at reducing poverty and building a middle class.
The dilemma for Rousseff’s government is that officials don’t want the fight against inflation to choke off economic growth. From January to July, central bank President Alexandre Tombini responded to the inflation threat by raising Brazil’s benchmark interest rate five times.
Then, on Aug. 31, to the surprise of analysts, the central bank lowered the rate, to 12 percent from 12.5 percent. Even after the cut, Brazil’s rate was the highest among the Group of 20 nations, representing the world’s largest economies.
Global Downturn
The central bank’s rationale for the rate cut was that a “substantial deterioration” in global economic growth will also slow Brazil’s expansion and push down inflation.
“Even assuming that they’re correct on their overly bearish view on Brazil’s economy, they’re clearly putting growth above their inflation target,” says Tony Volpon, Latin America strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “The outcome in the long run will be higher overall inflation.”
Despite the global economic gloom, Will Landers, who manages $8.5 billion in Latin American stocks at New York-based BlackRock Inc., sees only blue sky for Brazil’s economy.
“The natural resources aren’t going away, global food demand isn’t going anywhere and the middle class will continue to develop,” Landers says. “The domestic consumption story is unparalleled. It’s still a great place to invest.”
There are two immediate culprits behind what is the worst inflation in six years: skyrocketing credit and heavy spending by the government. Bank lending to businesses and consumers stood at 47 percent of GDP as of July, up from 24 percent when Lula took office in 2003, according to the central bank.
Lula’s Mixed Legacy
And in the run-up to the Oct. 31, 2010, election that put Rousseff into the presidency, Lula spent lavishly. Government spending in 2010 jumped 22.3 percent to 700 billion reais ($378 billion).
To tame inflation, Rousseff pledged on Feb. 9 to cut 50 billion reais from the 2011 budget. She also needs to cut the government subsidies that allow the National Development Bank to lend money at cheap rates, says Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former central bank director who’s now a partner at New York-based hedge fund Tandem Global Partners LLC. The bank handed out a record $101 billion in loans last year for projects such as building nuclear power plants, dams and roads and improving the electrical grid -- 40 percent more than the $72.2 billion loaned to countries around the globe by the World Bank.
Carry Trade
Commercial banks have also contributed to the inflation spiral. With near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, banks have been borrowing at low rates abroad and then lending at higher rates in Brazil, prompting Tombini to tighten bank liquidity requirements, a move that he says has removed 61 billion reais from circulation and helped prevent a credit bubble.
Brazil’s high interest rates have attracted speculative investors to Brazil’s bond market, adding fuel to the 27 percent rise in the value of the real against the dollar since the end of 2008. The strong real makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which has resulted in a flood of Chinese goods filling store shelves, hurting local manufacturers.
The real has fallen 13 percent this month against the dollar as investors have fled emerging market assets on concern Europe’s debt troubles will stall the global economy. The decline may improve Rousseff’s image with exporters and manufacturers, although it will fuel inflation by increasing prices for imported consumer goods, says Mauricio Rosal, an economist with Raymond James Financial Inc. in Sao Paulo.
“The real fell because of problems with Europe, but if a solution is found, the currency will bounce back,” Rosal says. “What’s happening in Europe isn’t going to solve Brazil’s structural problems.”
World Cup Costs Rise
Rising borrowing costs make government financing more expensive for the road improvements and other construction projects Brazil is undertaking to prepare for hosting the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. The government is building stadiums, housing and other facilities for the blacklisted_site and is also upgrading transportation and other infrastructure as part of an $886 billion investment plan through 2014.
Rousseff can attack all of her problems at once with a single measure: reducing the huge and growing government budget, says Alberto Ramos, a New York-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) specializing in Latin America. Since Lula took office, public spending has tracked GDP upward, with the economy growing to $2.1 trillion in 2010 from $552 billion in 2003.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio
--------
El Bovespa ha perdido 22% en lo que va del anio.
Cinco de sus minnistros han renunciado por malversacion de fondos publicos.
La inflacion es del 7.2%
Los prestamos a los negocios ha subido al 47% del PBI del 24% que dejo Lula.
Lula elevo en el 2010 la deuda del gobierno al 22.3% del PBI a $378 billones.
El anio pasado se dieron $110 billones de prestamos baratos para proyectos como plantas de energia nuclear, carreteras, etc. y otros 40% prestados a otros paises y al Banco Mundial.
La banca comerical tambien ha generado inflacion. Con intereses en casi zero en US y Europa, los bancos se han prestado dinero en esos paises a intereses bajos y los han prestado en Brasil a intereses mas altos, haciendo que Tombini tenga que tomar medidas para ajustar la liquidez y remover 61 billones de reales de circulacion y para prevenir una burbuja crediticia. (estas son las porquerias que causan lo gobiernos)
Los altos intereses han atraido a los inversionistas especuladores al mercado de bonos de Brasil, agregando mas lenia al fuego por lo que el real ha subido 27% respecto al dolar desde el 2008. El real fuerte ha hecho mas caras las exportaciones y mas baratas las importaciones lo cual ha causado una avalancha de productos Chinos en Brasil, perjudicando a los productores Brasileros. (al gobierno deberian tirarle una bomba, todos esos son unos incopetentes)
Este mes el real ha caido 13% frente al dolar ya que los inversionistas han salido de los mercados emergentes ante el temor de los problemas de Europa y han estancado a la economia global.
La caida puede causar que Rousseff mejore su imagen frente a los exportadoers y productores, aunque generara mas inflacion al incrementar el precio de los productos importados.
El alza de los intereses hace que el costo de prestarse dinero sea mas alto y mas caro para el gobierno el financiar las carreteras y ls proyectos de construccion en Brasil. La preparacion de Brasil para el mundial y las olimpiadas costara $886 billones hasta el 2014.
Brasil tiene que recortar su presupuesto.
Brasil necesita tomar medidas de austeridad, Ramos dice que nunca ha visto una economia con tantos problemas macro que no pueden solucionarse con una sola medida.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Ri
Rousseff Crisis Spurred by Lula Debts Coming Due as Brazil Boom Diminishes
By Alexander Ragir - Sep 27, 2011 12:01 AM ET Bloomberg Markets Magazine.
On a cool July evening, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff hosts a cocktail party for 50 leaders of her governing coalition, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its November issue. Speaking from the foot of a red-carpeted staircase in the living room of Alvorada Palace, where she lives with her mother and aunt, Rousseff tells the gathered politicians that these are the best times for Brazil, according to four people who attended.
“The world is going through economic and financial turbulence,” says Rousseff, who’s dressed in a black pantsuit. “But we’re living through a great moment.”
In a toast, Dilma, as she’s known to almost all Brazilians, juxtaposes the task of managing the country’s new economic prosperity with U.S. President Barack Obama’s struggle with the Republicans to get the U.S. government budget under control.
“And up there, they only have two parties,” she jokes.
Brazil has 27.
Rousseff, 63, inherited just about everything a president could want from her mentor and predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: an economy growing at a 7.5 percent annual pace and unemployment, at 5.3 percent, that was the lowest since at least 2001. Brazil’s Bovespa stock market index rose six-fold during Lula’s eight-year tenure, as iron ore, soybean and sugar exports boomed, driven in large part by demand from China.
Lula pulled 24.5 million people out of poverty in his years in office, according to data compiled by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, and Rousseff says that in the next four years, she will eliminate extreme poverty in Brazil.
A Miracle Subdued
Yet Rousseff took office in what has turned out to be a rocky period for Brazil’s economic miracle. Her government and Brazil’s economy have been hit with a series of setbacks. Brazil’s subdued mood may be best captured by the swoon in its stock prices: The Bovespa index was down 22 percent in 2011 as of yesterday.
The bad news spills over into politics. From June to September, five of Rousseff’s cabinet ministers resigned, four of them after the police or the press made allegations they had misused public money.
On Aug. 17, Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi stepped down after Veja magazine alleged he had illegally used his influence for personal gain. Rossi denies wrongdoing. His PMDB party, with 80 deputies in the 513-member lower house, is a crucial part of the 15-party governing coalition led by Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, which itself has just 86 Assembly seats.
Inflation Affliction
On the economic side, Brazil is once again suffering from an old affliction: inflation. Consumer prices, as measured by Brazil’s IPCA index, rose 7.2 percent during the 12 months ended in August. Though mild compared with the country’s legendary hyperinflation -- which peaked at an annual rate of 6,821 percent in April 1990 -- the price increases are eroding some of the progress Lula and Rousseff, who used to be his chief of staff, have made at reducing poverty and building a middle class.
The dilemma for Rousseff’s government is that officials don’t want the fight against inflation to choke off economic growth. From January to July, central bank President Alexandre Tombini responded to the inflation threat by raising Brazil’s benchmark interest rate five times.
Then, on Aug. 31, to the surprise of analysts, the central bank lowered the rate, to 12 percent from 12.5 percent. Even after the cut, Brazil’s rate was the highest among the Group of 20 nations, representing the world’s largest economies.
Global Downturn
The central bank’s rationale for the rate cut was that a “substantial deterioration” in global economic growth will also slow Brazil’s expansion and push down inflation.
“Even assuming that they’re correct on their overly bearish view on Brazil’s economy, they’re clearly putting growth above their inflation target,” says Tony Volpon, Latin America strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “The outcome in the long run will be higher overall inflation.”
Despite the global economic gloom, Will Landers, who manages $8.5 billion in Latin American stocks at New York-based BlackRock Inc., sees only blue sky for Brazil’s economy.
“The natural resources aren’t going away, global food demand isn’t going anywhere and the middle class will continue to develop,” Landers says. “The domestic consumption story is unparalleled. It’s still a great place to invest.”
There are two immediate culprits behind what is the worst inflation in six years: skyrocketing credit and heavy spending by the government. Bank lending to businesses and consumers stood at 47 percent of GDP as of July, up from 24 percent when Lula took office in 2003, according to the central bank.
Lula’s Mixed Legacy
And in the run-up to the Oct. 31, 2010, election that put Rousseff into the presidency, Lula spent lavishly. Government spending in 2010 jumped 22.3 percent to 700 billion reais ($378 billion).
To tame inflation, Rousseff pledged on Feb. 9 to cut 50 billion reais from the 2011 budget. She also needs to cut the government subsidies that allow the National Development Bank to lend money at cheap rates, says Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former central bank director who’s now a partner at New York-based hedge fund Tandem Global Partners LLC. The bank handed out a record $101 billion in loans last year for projects such as building nuclear power plants, dams and roads and improving the electrical grid -- 40 percent more than the $72.2 billion loaned to countries around the globe by the World Bank.
Carry Trade
Commercial banks have also contributed to the inflation spiral. With near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, banks have been borrowing at low rates abroad and then lending at higher rates in Brazil, prompting Tombini to tighten bank liquidity requirements, a move that he says has removed 61 billion reais from circulation and helped prevent a credit bubble.
Brazil’s high interest rates have attracted speculative investors to Brazil’s bond market, adding fuel to the 27 percent rise in the value of the real against the dollar since the end of 2008. The strong real makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which has resulted in a flood of Chinese goods filling store shelves, hurting local manufacturers.
The real has fallen 13 percent this month against the dollar as investors have fled emerging market assets on concern Europe’s debt troubles will stall the global economy. The decline may improve Rousseff’s image with exporters and manufacturers, although it will fuel inflation by increasing prices for imported consumer goods, says Mauricio Rosal, an economist with Raymond James Financial Inc. in Sao Paulo.
“The real fell because of problems with Europe, but if a solution is found, the currency will bounce back,” Rosal says. “What’s happening in Europe isn’t going to solve Brazil’s structural problems.”
World Cup Costs Rise
Rising borrowing costs make government financing more expensive for the road improvements and other construction projects Brazil is undertaking to prepare for hosting the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. The government is building stadiums, housing and other facilities for the blacklisted_site and is also upgrading transportation and other infrastructure as part of an $886 billion investment plan through 2014.
Rousseff can attack all of her problems at once with a single measure: reducing the huge and growing government budget, says Alberto Ramos, a New York-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) specializing in Latin America. Since Lula took office, public spending has tracked GDP upward, with the economy growing to $2.1 trillion in 2010 from $552 billion in 2003.
Need for Austerity
“I’ve never seen an economy with so many macro issues that can be addressed with just one instrument,” Ramos says. “If they would cut the fiscal budget significantly, they’d let the central bank loosen monetary policy. Lula rode the wave of rising commodity prices and forgot to make the reforms needed to make it sustainable.”
By cutting government spending, Brazil could both lower taxes and reduce the cost of its $1.73 trillion debt by making more room for policy makers to cut interest rates, Ramos says. In 2008, the last year for which data are available, Brazil’s federal, state and local governments collected taxes equivalent to 35 percent of Brazil’s GDP, with half of the money spent on pensions, corporate subsidies and welfare programs and 16 percent spent on debt payments.
Both public and private projects are expensive to bring off because of what Ramos and other analysts call the Brazil Cost. The price of doing business is driven up by taxes, graft, a turgid bureaucracy and high borrowing costs, Ramos says.
Unfriendly to Business?
Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest economy, ranks 127 out of 183 countries in the ease of doing business, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 survey.
It takes an average of 120 days to complete the 15 procedures to start up a company.
Persuading the legislature to spend less will be an uphill battle, according to an Aug. 10 report on the economy by Bank of America Corp. The most Rousseff can hope for, the report says, are modest changes in the tax code and a rise in the time younger government employees need to work before they get their pensions.
The generous pension system is an important component of government overspending, says Simon Nocera, founder of San Francisco-based hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, who studied the subject while working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s.
Public servants can retire with 100 percent of their final salary after as few as 25 years of service, though men must be 60 and women 55 before they can collect. In 2010, the government spent 333 billion reais on pensions -- almost the GDP of Ireland.
Generous Pensions
“If they reformed the pension system, they could lower taxes and interest rates,” Nocera says. “It’s the easiest way to lower costs, but there’s no political will.”
Rousseff, who had never run for any office before being elected president, has little experience in negotiating the political deals that will be needed to reduce the budget and push down inflation and interest rates. And the recent cabinet resignations don’t help.
One victim was Antonio Palocci, Dilma’s chief of staff, an experienced Workers’ Party leader who stepped down in June after a news report that his consulting firm had earned 20 million reais in 2010, most of it when he was running Dilma’s electoral campaign. Opposition lawmakers claim he was selling access to the future president. Palocci denies wrongdoing.
Palocci Departs
Rousseff replaced Palocci with Senator Gleisi Hoffmann, a woman with almost no heft within the party, according to David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
Rousseff also lost her tourism minister -- who resigned on Sept. 14 after federal police arrested 38 people for the illegal use of money from his ministry.
Alfredo Nascimento, her powerful transportation minister and a leader of the Party of the Republic, also resigned amid allegations of kickbacks and overbilling in a ministry that doles out $15 billion a year for public works projects. He also denies wrongdoing.
With the pressure on to root out corruption, in the following two months Rousseff forced out about 20 more officials from the Transport Ministry, prompting Nascimento’s party to pull out of the government coalition.
Rousseff’s July cocktail party was one attempt to keep the government together so she has a chance to fight off the demon of inflation. At one point, Rousseff raised her wine glass for a toast to “fraternity” and “harmony” before noticing that not everyone had a drink. Waiters scurried to give glasses to those who were empty-handed before she continued.
Toasting Together
“It was very important for President Dilma to make sure we could all toast together,” Minister of Institutional Affairs Ideli Salvatti says.
Her coalition might be fragile, but given the economic powerhouse that Lula bequeathed her, Dilma’s glass is still more than half full.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
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Copper September 27,13:59
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Bid/Ask 0.8855 - 0.8877
Change +0.0455 +5.41%
Low/High 0.8400 - 0.9004
Charts
Lead September 27,13:59
Bid/Ask 0.9322 - 0.9343
Change +0.0564 +6.44%
Low/High 0.8758 - 0.9530
Bid/Ask 3.4516 - 3.4544
Change +0.1487 +4.50%
Low/High 3.2999 - 3.4896
Charts
Nickel September 27,13:58
Bid/Ask 8.6196 - 8.6273
Change +0.3797 +4.61%
Low/High 8.2400 - 8.6827
Charts
Aluminum September 27,13:59
Bid/Ask 0.9973 - 0.9983
Change +0.0175 +1.78%
Low/High 0.9794 - 1.0010
Charts
Zinc September 27,13:59
Bid/Ask 0.8855 - 0.8877
Change +0.0455 +5.41%
Low/High 0.8400 - 0.9004
Charts
Lead September 27,13:59
Bid/Ask 0.9322 - 0.9343
Change +0.0564 +6.44%
Low/High 0.8758 - 0.9530
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:15 pm
Canada
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 11,911.10 203.90 1.74% 15:06
S&P/TSX EQUITY INDEX 12,291.80 219.25 1.82% 15:02
S&P/TSX 60 INDEX 680.50 9.93 1.48% 15:02
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP IDX 1,575.17 48.02 3.14% 15:03
Mexico
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
MEXICO IPC INDEX 34,389.70 1,003.77 3.01% 14:47
MEXICO INMEX INDEX 1,864.94 61.03 3.38% 14:43
MEXICO IMC30 INDEX 411.83 7.86 1.95% 14:43
MSE TOTAL RETURN INDEX 41,057.50 1,209.11 3.03% 14:43
Panama
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Bolsa de Panama General 308.14 0.06 0.02% 09/26
Argentina
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX 2,585.08 80.13 3.20% 14:42
ARGENTINA BURCAP INDEX 8,704.93 247.29 2.92% 14:42
M.AR MERVAL ARGENTINA IX 2,179.65 72.43 3.44% 14:42
INDICE BOLSA GENERAL 142,233.00 3,156.22 2.27% 14:42
Brazil
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX 54,345.10 597.55 1.11% 15:07
BRAZIL IBrX INDEX 18,515.80 312.87 1.72% 14:48
BRAZIL ELECTRIC.ENRGY IX 27,943.00 195.04 0.70% 14:48
BRAZIL TELECOM INDEX 1,608.36 8.40 0.53% 14:48
BRAZIL CORP GOV INDEX 6,349.84 121.18 1.95% 14:48
BRAZIL VAL/BOV 2 TIER IX 5,453.40 76.38 1.42% 14:48
BRAZIL IBrX-50 INDEX 7,790.79 132.00 1.72% 14:48
Chile
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
CHILE STOCK MKT SELECT 3,925.41 113.15 2.97% 15:00
CHILE STOCK MKT GENERAL 18,939.90 418.99 2.26% 15:00
CHILE INTER-10 INDEX 5,117.93 145.34 2.92% 15:00
CHILE 65 INDEX 2,752.27 56.93 2.11% 14:47
CHILE LARGE CAP INDEX 2,640.59 65.80 2.56% 14:43
CHILE SMALL CAP INDEX 3,688.49 -37.53 -1.01% 14:47
Venezuela
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
VENEZUELA STOCK MKT INDX 99,599.40 301.12 0.30% 13:28
Peru
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
PERU LIMA GENERAL INDEX 19,264.80 570.51 3.05% 14:45
PERU LIMA SELECTIVE INDX 26,807.60 654.59 2.50% 14:45
Colombia
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
COLOMBIA COLCAP INDEX 1,603.89 19.59 1.24% 14:41
COLOMBIA COL20 INDEX 1,321.59 22.32 1.72% 14:41
IGBC GENERAL INDEX 13,073.50 219.80 1.71% 14:41
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 11,911.10 203.90 1.74% 15:06
S&P/TSX EQUITY INDEX 12,291.80 219.25 1.82% 15:02
S&P/TSX 60 INDEX 680.50 9.93 1.48% 15:02
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP IDX 1,575.17 48.02 3.14% 15:03
Mexico
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
MEXICO IPC INDEX 34,389.70 1,003.77 3.01% 14:47
MEXICO INMEX INDEX 1,864.94 61.03 3.38% 14:43
MEXICO IMC30 INDEX 411.83 7.86 1.95% 14:43
MSE TOTAL RETURN INDEX 41,057.50 1,209.11 3.03% 14:43
Panama
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Bolsa de Panama General 308.14 0.06 0.02% 09/26
Argentina
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX 2,585.08 80.13 3.20% 14:42
ARGENTINA BURCAP INDEX 8,704.93 247.29 2.92% 14:42
M.AR MERVAL ARGENTINA IX 2,179.65 72.43 3.44% 14:42
INDICE BOLSA GENERAL 142,233.00 3,156.22 2.27% 14:42
Brazil
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX 54,345.10 597.55 1.11% 15:07
BRAZIL IBrX INDEX 18,515.80 312.87 1.72% 14:48
BRAZIL ELECTRIC.ENRGY IX 27,943.00 195.04 0.70% 14:48
BRAZIL TELECOM INDEX 1,608.36 8.40 0.53% 14:48
BRAZIL CORP GOV INDEX 6,349.84 121.18 1.95% 14:48
BRAZIL VAL/BOV 2 TIER IX 5,453.40 76.38 1.42% 14:48
BRAZIL IBrX-50 INDEX 7,790.79 132.00 1.72% 14:48
Chile
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
CHILE STOCK MKT SELECT 3,925.41 113.15 2.97% 15:00
CHILE STOCK MKT GENERAL 18,939.90 418.99 2.26% 15:00
CHILE INTER-10 INDEX 5,117.93 145.34 2.92% 15:00
CHILE 65 INDEX 2,752.27 56.93 2.11% 14:47
CHILE LARGE CAP INDEX 2,640.59 65.80 2.56% 14:43
CHILE SMALL CAP INDEX 3,688.49 -37.53 -1.01% 14:47
Venezuela
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
VENEZUELA STOCK MKT INDX 99,599.40 301.12 0.30% 13:28
Peru
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
PERU LIMA GENERAL INDEX 19,264.80 570.51 3.05% 14:45
PERU LIMA SELECTIVE INDX 26,807.60 654.59 2.50% 14:45
Colombia
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
COLOMBIA COLCAP INDEX 1,603.89 19.59 1.24% 14:41
COLOMBIA COL20 INDEX 1,321.59 22.32 1.72% 14:41
IGBC GENERAL INDEX 13,073.50 219.80 1.71% 14:41
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por gonzalo » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:20 pm
trader escribió:Victor como te dijo Gonzalo lineas arriba , si esres TU el q lo va a presentar directamente a CAVALI, de todas maneras obligado lo tienes q legalizar la firma, si lo haces por tu sab no es necesario la legalizada, yo preferi hacerlo personalmente , por q la verdad veo q muchas SABs por lo q me cuentan amigos estan perdidos en esto, varios tiene criterios distintos para los calculos de precios, es mas la misma CAVALI, no la tiene del todo claro
Es cierto, no hay un criterio definido para el calculo de precios. Por ejemplo, para las acciones adquiridas antes de diciembre del 2009. Algunos dicen que el precio es al 31 dic. del 2009 y otros dicen que se saca un promedio de las compras.
Por consejo de mi SAB he declarado el precio al 31 dic. del 2009 a pesar que tengo algunas acciones que compre a un mayor valor.
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:22 pm
VIX down 36.40
+248
+248
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:26 pm
Au up 1,649.20
Ag up 31.94
+205.03 retrodiendo.
Ag up 31.94
+205.03 retrodiendo.
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:27 pm
+211.76
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por RCHF » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:28 pm
Dow............. + 1.90%
Nasdaq......... + 1.56%
Nasdaq......... + 1.56%
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Re: Martes 27/09/11, Indice de casas, confianza del consumid
por admin » Mar Sep 27, 2011 2:28 pm
Merkel dijo que ayudara a Grecia.
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