por admin » Mié Oct 12, 2011 6:51 pm
La banca reporta, ajustense los cinturones, va a se horrible, el peor trimestre desde el 2008.
JPM reporta a las 7 a.m., conferencia a las 10 a.m.
J.P. Morgan Earnings Preview: Four Themes to Watch
By Shira Ovide
Yes, it’s that time of year again: Bank earnings season. Buckle up, it’s going to be ugly — perhaps the worst quarterly beauty pageant since the 2008 meltdown.
Analysts have spent the better part of the last six weeks sharply ratcheting down their expectations for third quarter earnings.
As usual, J.P. Morgan is first in line to receive it’s report card, and the New York bank is likely to be the teacher’s pet of Wall Street.
Set your alarms; J.P. Morgan publishes its financial results at 7 a.m. ET. And the bank will hold a conference call at 10 a.m. Catch the Webcast here.
EPS: The average of analysts’ estimates calls for J.P. Morgan to post 97 cents in adjusted earnings per share, according to FactSet. That would be down from the $1.01 EPS posted in the third quarter of 2010.
Revenue is expected to slip to $23.4 billion from $23.8 billion a year earlier. J.P. Morgan investment-bank chief Jes Staley last month warned the firm’s trading revenues are expected to decline about 30% from the second quarter.
Four Keys for J.P. Morgan earnings:
May We See Your Exposures, Mr. Dimon? Our colleague (ok, our boss) Francesco Guerrera practically begged banks to prove their “manageable” exposures to the naughty countries in Europe. Investors also will again be curious for J.P. Morgan’s estimates of how much money it needs to set aside to cover costs or litigation related to soured mortgages. And you can bet CEO Jamie Dimon will have a quip or two about the still evolving rules on bank capital and regulation. He’s no shrinking violet.
Permanent Down Arrow. M&A is down. Debt and loan underwriting will be down, which means banks’ fees from doing such activities are down. Results in J.P. Morgan’s asset-management are expected to be — you guessed it — down. Barclays Capital estimates investment-banking fees at J.P. Morgan are likely to slip below $1 billion, about a 50% decline from the June quarter.
Share Buybacks! J.P. Morgan got permission from the government to resume buying back stock. Let’s see how many shares they bought in the third quarter, a stretch during which J.P. Morgan’s stock price shriveled by 26%. Barclays estimates J.P. Morgan bought around $2 billion worth its stock, or around 1.5% of shares outstanding.
Oh, We Almost Forgot the Good News: J.P. Morgan is likely to benefit from a shrinking pool of bad loans, which will allow the bank to take back money it had set aside to cover those losses. Raymond James says J.P. Morgan could release $1.6 billion of such reserves. Consumers remain reluctant or unable to take out fresh loans for cars, homes and other purchases, but loans to businesses are expected to be a shining star, as they were in the second-quarter results.