Jueves 20/10/11, Indicadores lideres, Philadelphia

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Eventos economicos

Jueves

Seguros de desempleo
Ventas de casas existentes
Actividad economica en Philadelphia
Indicadores lideres
Subasta de bonos
Money supply
Balance del Fed

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET


Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET


Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET


5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET


7-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

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Hablan varios miembros del Fed. A estar atentos.

Tomorrow’s Tape: Talking Fed Heads

By Mark Gongloff
Tomorrow’s Tape includes a bunch of second-tier data, earnings and every possible Fed speaker known to man.

Economics:

At 8:30 a.m. ET, we get weekly jobless claims. Economists think they came in at 400,000, down a bit from 404,000 last week. Feels like they have been forecasting 400,000 claims every week since the first Bush administration.
At 10:00 a.m. the National Association of Realtors unveils home resales (also called existing home sales) for September. Economists think sales slowed to a 4.9-million-unit pace from 5.03 million in August.
Also at 10:00 a.m., the Conference Board releases its leading indicators for September. They were up 0.2%, economists think, after rising 0.3% in August.
And at 10:00 a.m., we also get the Philadelphia Fed index for October. Economists think this came in at -9, a little improvement over -17.5 in September. This index has been pretty awful for a while, but has come to seem detached from the national ISM number.
FedSpeak:

At 9:00 a.m., Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks.
At 9:15 a.m., St. Louis Fed President James Bullard talks.
At 12:15 p.m., Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks.
At 4:00 p.m., Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota talks, too.
Some time tomorrow we also hear from Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo.
Earnings:

Before the opening bell, we get results from:

Union Pacific
Snap-On
PPG Industries
McGraw-Hill
Laboratory Corp of America
Janus Capital
Huntington Bancshares
Boston Scientific
BB&T
Danaher
Fifth Third
Philip Morris
FLIR Systems
AT&T
Baxter International
Newfield Exploration
Eli Lilly
KeyCorp
Later we hear from:

Noble Energy
Diamond Offshore Drilling
AutoNation
Southwest Airlines
Nucor
After the close we get results from:

Chubb
Compuware
Microsoft
SanDisk
Chipotle Mexican Grill
People’s United Financial
Capital One
Altera

[admin]

Copper October 19,20:39
Bid/Ask 3.2304 - 3.2321
Change -0.0168 -0.52%
Low/High 3.2168 - 3.2504
Charts

Nickel October 19,20:38
Bid/Ask 8.3804 - 8.4480
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 8.3577 - 8.4929
Charts

Aluminum October 19,20:35
Bid/Ask 0.9635 - 0.9640
Change -0.0023 -0.23%
Low/High 0.9633 - 0.9679
Charts

Zinc October 19,20:38
Bid/Ask 0.8220 - 0.8234
Change +0.0009 +0.11%
Low/High 0.8207 - 0.8246
Charts

Lead October 19,20:36
Bid/Ask 0.8326 - 0.8353
Change +0.0005 +0.05%
Low/High 0.8309 - 0.8353

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 0/32 0.278
10-Year Note* 5/32 2.164
* at close

8:39 p.m. EDT 10/19/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 86.40 0.29 86.11
Gold 1638.1 -8.9 1647.0
E-mini Dow 11475 31 11444
E-mini S&P 500 1210.50 4.00 1206.50

8:48 p.m. EDT 10/19/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 76.83 76.81
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3766 1.3760
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Australia -1.36%, Korea +0.50%, el Nikkei -0.73%

Euro up 1.3764

Yen up 76.81

Au down 1,631.40

Oil up 86.35

Brent up 109

Los futures del Dow Jones 26 puntos al alza.

[admin]

Ojala se haga algo respecto a los impuestos

Steve Forbes esta asesorando a Perry. Exonerarian los impuestos alos dividendos y ganancias de capital para impulsar la inversion.
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Rick Perry’s Support for a Flat Tax Cheers Steve Forbes

By John D. McKinnon
Rick Perry’s embrace of a flat tax makes the tough-talking Texas governor the unlikely political heir to Steve Forbes, the nerdy publisher and erstwhile presidential candidate.


Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media, Steve Forbes speaks during a press conference ahead of Forbes Global CEO Conference 2011 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Sept. 12, 2011. (AP Photo/Lai Seng Sin)Mr. Forbes was characteristically exuberant on Wednesday.

“I’m very, very excited by it,” Mr. Forbes said in a telephone interview. “What Perry is proposing is a radical simplification of the income tax code….It’s finally coming to pass.”

Mr. Perry officially announced his support for the flat tax in a speech on Wednesday. Mr. Forbes, who ran in 1996 and 2000 and now is advising the Perry camp, said that the “concept remains the same” as his own flat tax plan from the 1990s. That plan included a $36,000 exemption for a family of four and a 17% flat rate on income above that level. It also would have eliminated taxes on personal savings and capital gains in order to encourage investment.

In political terms, the Perry proposal appears to be a response to the popularity of candidate Herman Cain’s own radical “9-9-9” tax plan, which combines a flat tax on businesses and individuals with a national sales tax.

Mr. Forbes cites the growing list of countries that have moved to the flat tax as one reason for the surge of interest in the U.S. The flat tax has been especially prevalent in the emerging countries of the former Soviet bloc. The lackluster U.S. economy is adding further to the urgency. Supporters of the flat tax – including many conservatives – believe it would accelerate growth by making the tax climate more business-friendly. Liberals often worry about its impact on moderate-income earners.

Mr. Forbes – like some other political observers – thinks Mr. Perry’s embrace of the flat tax makes it even more likely that tax reform will become a key issue in the 2012 campaign, particularly for Republicans.

“It’ll be a huge tonic politically and economically and make it a huge issue next year,” he said. “And there will be a big mandate for tax simplification.”

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Perú duplica monto previsto plan estímulo económico
miércoles 19 de octubre de 2011 19:59 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LIMA (Reuters) - El Gobierno peruano duplicó el miércoles el monto de un previsto plan de estímulo económico a un 1,0 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto desde el previo 0,5 por ciento, en caso se agrave la crisis financiera mundial.
El primer ministro, Salomón Lerner, afirmó que la medida de aumentar el plan inicial de estímulo de 750 millones de dólares se daba "ante una posibilidad de un mayor deterioro del entorno internacional".

La debilitada economía de Estados Unidos y la crisis de deuda en Europa -que se teme que podrían desencadenar una recesión mundial- han llevado a los Gobierno del mundo a evaluar medidas para atenuar los efectos que esta crisis tendría sobre sus economías.

Perú es un gran exportador de minerales y una crisis global reduciría la demanda de las materias primas y sus precios en el mundo.

"Ese plan consiste en un monto total de 1.500 millones de soles que complementado al plan anterior de hace 30 días representa un 1 por ciento del Producto Bruto Interno del país", dijo Lerner en conferencia de prensa.

Para enfrentar la crisis mundial por el lado fiscal, el ministro de Economía, Luis Miguel Castilla, había informado que el plan de estímulo fiscal incluirá adelantar proyectos de inversión pública y hasta un rápido acceso a líneas de créditos de organismos multilaterales.

Humala, quien ha moderado su discurso radical de izquierda, ha dado señales claras de que respetará la política económica local que ha permitido al país crecer a una tasa promedio anual de más de 6 por ciento en los últimos años.

Según datos oficiales, la economía peruana crecería este año en torno al 6 por ciento tras crecer un 8,8 por ciento el año pasado.

(Por Patricia Vélez y Teresa Céspedes

[admin]

Esto es realmente hermoso:

"Victory awaits him who has everything in order-luck people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck" - Road Amundsen, The South Pole

Es del libro de Collins: Great by Choice.

La victoria espera al que tiene todo en orden, gente con suerte los llaman. La derrota es cierta para el que por negligencia no toma las precauciones a tiempo; eso es llamado mala suerte. Lo escribio Road Amundsen en su expedicion victoriosa al Polo Sur, su contrincante murio con todo su equipo de exploradores, en el diario que escribio el perdedor Robert Falcon se quejaba de la mala suerte que habia tenido y el impacto que la mala suerte habia tenido en su expedicion, el asunto en realidad es que el nunca estuvo bien preparado para lo que emprendio.

Les recomiendo este libro.

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+16

Au down 1,630, oil down 85.97

[admin]

MSFT y otras companias interesadas en comprar a Yahoo.

UBS reducira su unidad de banco de inversion.

Mas de 100,000 protestan en Grecia. Crecen mas dudas acerca del fondo de rescate Europeo. Estan discutiendo que los paises que emiten bonos se presten del fondo de rescate para garantizar una parte de la emision de bonos, el problema es que esta accion aumentaria la deuda de los ya muy endeudados paises.

Le hicieron una fiesta de despedida a Trichet.

Maniana Grecia llevara a votacion mas recortes en ese pais.

El Domingo es la fecha de corte para que solucionen el problema de la crisis Europea.

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Lo de Europa es una desgracia por donde se mira, todo eso va a acabar muy mal, lo unico que estan haciendo es ganar tiempo y evitar que haya otro colapso mundial como el provocado por Lehman.

Ya advirtieron que otro Lehman llevaria derechito a US a otra recesion.

[admin]

Estamos todos conectados.

La desaceleracion en Brasil tiene preocupada a Argentina que ve que Brasil comprara menos de sus productos.

Los economistas Brasileros dicen que la economia caera y solo crecera un 3% al anio. La tristeza. Eso es menos de la mitad que el anio pasado.

En Peru ya estan aplicando estimulos del 1% o 1.5% del PBI por la desaceleracion mundial.

Brasil le esta subiendo los impuestos a los chocolates y dulces provenientes de Brasil. Hay una guerra de dulces entre los dos paises. Los Argentinos se quejan de que Brasil esta recurriendo al proteccionismo.

Esto se suma a la caida del 10% en los granos Argentinos de soya y otros granos. Esto significa una caida en la recaudacion de impuestos del 10% que repercuten en los programas sociales Argentinos.

Brasil compra el 20% del total de las exportaciones Argentinas y es el 40% de su manufactura.

El 80% de las exportaciones de autos de Argentina van a Brasil.

Wow! esto se esta poniendo feo.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... sNewsThird

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Estan proponiendo darle la residencia a los extranjeros que compren una casa en US. Esta gente esta loca.

[admin]

La produccion de cafe en centro America esta amenazada por las lluvias torrenciales en esa region.

Esta afectada la produccion de Honduras, Guatemala y El Salvador que significan el 10% de la produccion mundial de cafe. Honduras y Guatemala producen el cafe arabica.

COMMODITIESOCTOBER 20, 2011.

Heavy Rains Threaten Coffee Crops

By LESLIE JOSEPHS in New York and JEAN GUERRERO in Mexico City

A worker shovels coffee in El Paste, El Salvador. Rough weather there and elsewhere in Central America has threatened production and transport.
.Torrential rains are pounding down on coffee production and trade routes in Central America, supplier of 10% of the world's coffee beans.

This rainy season is shaping up to be a destructive one in countries like Honduras and Guatemala, which grow mild-flavored arabica beans coveted by coffee connoisseurs.

High winds are stripping leaves from the coffee trees, exposing not-yet-ripe coffee to the elements. Also, ripened coffee is falling onto waterlogged soil before it can be carefully harvested, and those beans are often so damaged they can't be sold.

That is driving the price of coffee higher. Futures are up 5.7% since hitting a nine-month low earlier this month, including Wednesday's jump of 4.65 cents, or 2%, to $2.3615 a pound on IntercontinentalExchange.

Félix Regalado, who cultivates coffee on a small farm in Honduras, the largest coffee producer in Central America, and thousands of other coffee farmers are about to start harvesting the bulk of Central America's crop at a time when supplies are tight. Stockpiles of arabica coffee in exchange-certified warehouses have shrunk nearly 60% since September 2009.

Big coffee roasters were looking to this upcoming harvest in Central and South America for relief from three years of lackluster global production. However, the severe rains, which have already claimed scores of lives across the region, are dashing such hopes.

"The coffee is falling from the plants, both ripe and unripe berries," said Mr. Regalado. The berries contain the beans that are cleaned and roasted to make coffee. Not only is the actual coffee damaged, but weather conditions make it difficult for farmers to harvest and get the beans to storage terminals or ports.

"When it rains like this, we can't cut," Mr. Regalado said. "And when it's slippery, we have to transport on horseback."

In El Salvador, 2% of the 1.3 million 60-kilogram (about 130-pound) bags that were forecast to be exported this year have been lost to the rains, said Ana Elena Escalante, executive director of the Salvadoran Coffee Council. El Salvador's President Mauricio Funes said the country had received a record amount of rainfall, surpassing what fell during Hurricane Mitch in 1998, one of the region's most costly natural disasters.

The heavy rains took some in the coffee industry off-guard.

"It wasn't expected," said Ricardo Villanueva, chairman of the Guatemalan National Coffee Association. "It's impossible to forecast."

Guatemala is the region's second-largest grower, and Mr. Villanueva said crop loss is minimal but that "infrastructure damage is terrible."

The wet weather is spreading beyond just Central America. The coffee federation in Colombia has blamed the heavier-than-usual storms for a drop in production but is keeping its target of nine million bags for the year.

"There's certainly going to be a logistical issue, and a supply issue could develop," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago-based Price Futures and a dealer of Salvadoran coffee. "It would be...supportive for prices. I think they're headed back to the $2.70 [a pound] area."

[admin]

Despidieron al jefe de Mercedes Benz US por utilizar dinero de la compania para gastos personales.