por admin » Jue Oct 27, 2011 2:22 pm
Y el Congreso podria hacer que las acciones suban mas todavia.
El Congressional Joint Super Committee, la comision de republcianso y democratas que deberan arreglar lo del deficit y recortarlo en $1.2 trillones para el 23 de Noviembre.
October 27, 2011, 3:11 PM ET.How the Super Congress Could Lift Stocks Even Higher (Temporarily, at Least)
By Tom Lauricella
Meanwhile, back in the United States, investors are starting to turn their attention to our own fiscal hurdles.
The focus is on the Congressional Joint Super Committee, where Republicans and Democrats can leap budget deficits with a single bound and come up with $1.2 trillion in cuts by Nov. 23.
Many Washington-watchers are skeptical the committee will be able to meet this goal in today’s highly-charged partisan political environment and avoid automatic spending cuts.
At Barclays Capital, stock strategist Barry Knapp is a bit more optimistic, but it’s kind of a good-news/bad-news story. Here’s some of what Knapp has to say:
US public policy is re-emerging as a market factor, with a positive bias. Although there has been little press coverage of the Joint Super Committee (JSC) process, our understanding is that it has gotten off to a slow start.
Our expectation for the subsequent deal is an agreement that keeps stimulus in the system through 2012, with a couple of additional supply-side measures, but avoids direct transfers to state and local governments, an infrastructure bank and other neo-Keynesian stimulus.
This might seem optimistic, given the lack of JSC progress, but we believe both House Republicans and Senate Democrats need a deal if they expect to hold majorities in the 2012 elections. Barclays Capital’s economics team estimates that a failure to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits could lower 1Q12 consumption by 150bp.
A late-year deal that avoids significant fiscal tightening in 2012 could have a positive effect on capital markets and business confidence, much like the extension of Bush-era tax cuts in December 2010. Even so, the effect on business confidence should be more fleeting than a year ago, given the diametrically opposed views on the size and scope of the public sector between the president and the GOP candidate, regardless of the nominee.
None of these measures seems likely to alter the trajectory of potential growth, suggesting that any rally in the equity market should be viewed as tactical.