Miercoles 02/11/11 La decision del Fed sera opacada por Euro

[admin]

Miercoles

Eventos economicos

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Reporte del empleo Challenger Job-Cut
Reporte del empleo privado de ADP
Subasta de bonos
Decision del Fed a las 12:30 p.m.

Bank Reserve Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET


ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET


Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:00 AM ET


3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET


10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


FOMC Meeting Announcement
12:30 PM ET

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 0/32 0.246
10-Year Note* 1 3/32 1.992
* at close

10:05 p.m. EDT 11/01/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 91.53 -0.66 92.19
Gold 1727.5 15.7 1711.8
E-mini Dow 11681 -1 11682
E-mini S&P 500 1224.50 0.00 1224.50

10:14 p.m. EDT 11/01/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.13 78.38
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3704 1.3700
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper November 01,21:59
Bid/Ask 3.5260 - 3.5286
Change +0.0307 +0.88%
Low/High 3.4920 - 3.5570
Charts

Nickel November 01,21:59
Bid/Ask 8.4935 - 8.5153
Change +0.1030 +1.23%
Low/High 8.3797 - 8.5606
Charts

Aluminum November 01,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.9455 - 0.9467
Change +0.0101 +1.08%
Low/High 0.9331 - 0.9481
Charts

Zinc November 01,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.8499 - 0.8510
Change +0.0009 +0.11%
Low/High 0.8469 - 0.8560
Charts

Lead November 01,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.8820 - 0.8838
Change +0.0048 +0.54%
Low/High 0.8744 - 0.8933

[admin]

El Asia notablemente a la baja como es de esperar.

Los metales mejorando

Los futures del dow Jones 2 puntos al alza

Oil down 91.58, Au up 1,728, Ag up.

[admin]

Yen up 78.10

Korea -1.38%, el Hang Seng -1.56%, el Shanghai C. -1%, el Nikkei -1.93%, Australia -1.5%

Euro up 1.37

[admin]

Nomura reporto perdidas por primera vez en dos anios. Recortara empleos.

[admin]

La inflacion en China esta cediendo, lo que le dara a Wen mayor campo de accion para aplicar politicas monetarias y fiscales para impulsar a la economia de ese pais. Economia amenazada por el efecto de la crisis en Europa sobre sus exportaciones.

[admin]

La banca mundial enfrenta recortes de costos, recortes de empleados.

El Tesoro informo que AIG le pago $972 millones el Martes, faltan $50 billones.

[admin]

El S&P 500 esta 33% mas barato que el promedio de otros periodos con inflacion similar, especialmente el sector energia y finanzas luce muy "atractivo" dijo Abby Joseph
Cohen de Goldman Sachs.

El PE del S&P500 es 12 para los proximos 12 meses, dijo Cohen, eso se compara con el promedio de 18 durante periodos de moderada inflacion, como los que estamos viviendo, sugiriendo que los precios estan baratos, asumiendo que US puede evitar otra recesion.

Costin estratega tambien de Goldman dice que el S&P 500 subira a 1,300 puntos en lso proximos 12 meses y que bajara a 1,200 o 4.3% menos de su nivel actual.

S&P 500 at 33% Discount on Future Profits, Joseph Cohen Says
By Inyoung Hwang and Betty Liu - Nov 1, 2011 4:12 PM ET .

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is 33 percent cheaper than average for periods of similar inflation, making some energy and financial stocks “attractive,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)’s Abby Joseph Cohen said.

The price-to-earnings ratio of the benchmark equity gauge is about 12 times profit estimates for the next 12 months, said Cohen, senior U.S. investment strategist at the firm, in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. That compares with an average of 18 times during “periods of moderate inflation” such as the U.S. economy is currently experiencing, and suggests the index is underpriced, assuming the U.S. economy can avoid recession, Cohen said.

“That’s not a high bar,” she said. “We’re not saying rapid economic growth or rapid profit growth, but avoid recession and have just modest economic and profit growth.”

The S&P 500 surged 11 percent in October, the biggest the biggest monthly increase since 1991, amid speculation European leaders will solve the region’s debt crisis, after the measure slumped from May through September. U.S. inflation has averaged 3.1 percent this year, compared with the historical rate of 2.5 percent in the last two decades, according to the consumer price index.

Stocks dropped yesterday, erasing the S&P 500’s 2011 gain, on concern Europe will struggle to raise financing for a bailout. Analysts estimate combined profits by companies in the benchmark gauge in the next 12 months will be $104.13, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The S&P 500 fell 2.8 percent to 1,218.28 today after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged a referendum on a new bailout package.

David Kostin, Goldman’s equity strategist, predicts the benchmark equity index will end the year at 1,200, 4.3 percent below yesterday’s closing price. He cut his price estimate three times in the three months through Oct. 4.

“This has been an extremely volatile market,” Cohen said in the interview. “It’s very hard to do short-term forecasts in that kind of environment. I wouldn’t worry too much about a particular year-end forecast but rather take a look at the expectations for the next six to 12 months.”

Kostin estimates the S&P 500 will climb to 1,300 in the next 12 months.

Cohen said companies in the energy and financial services groups are at “attractive” valuations. While commodity prices will increase as the global economy recovers, a number of stocks in the financial services industry are trading below book value, according to Cohen.

“Even if one has concern about the direction of margins or the precise level of earnings growth, it seems to be that in the past, to acquire these companies below book value has been an attractive thing to consider,” she said of financial companies. “If you believe the book value data this tends to be attractive, because markets and securities tend to sell well above book value.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Inyoung Hwang in New York at ihwang7@bloomberg.net; Betty Liu in New York at bliu17@bloomberg.net

[admin]

Se espera que ADP diga que se crearon 105,000 empleos privados en Octubre.

El Fed anuncia su decision, nadie espera mucho.

Bernanke habla a las 2:15

Tomorrow’s Tape: Ben Your Ear.
By Mark Gongloff

EverettEconomics:

8:15 a.m. ET: ADP releases its estimate of private-sector payrolls for October, which the market for some reason almost always takes as a gospel predictor of the Labor Department’s payroll report due on Friday. T’aint so. Economists estimate 105,000 jobs, up from 91,000 in September.
12:30 p.m.: The Fed announces the decision following its two-day policy meeting. Nobody expects much new.
2:15 p.m.: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference. A good time will most assuredly be had by all.
Earnings:

Before the opening bell we get results from:

Becton, Dickinson
Time Warner
Marsh & McLennan
Cognizant Technology
EOG Resources
MasterCard
Comcast
At some point we hear from:

Clorox
Devon Energy
Edison International
El Paso
Murphy Oil
After the bell we get results from:

Kraft
News Corp.
QUALCOMM
CenturyLink
Hartford Financial Services
Prudential Financial
Whole Foods Market
Tomorrow's Tape

[admin]

Los que reportan utilidades esta semana deben estar maldiciendo a Grecia y a Europa.

[admin]

El euro mejorando 1.3706

[admin]

Este Corzine habia sido una joya. Pobre New Jersey.

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REVIEW & OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2, 2011

.Where Was the CFTC?
Apparently it was too busy writing new rules to monitor MF Global.

How are the regulators going to explain this one? MF Global, the failed firm whose Chairman and CEO is Jon Corzine, has already destroyed the wealth of its investors and roiled the banking world. But now we are learning that it may have lost customer funds as well.

A major Wall Street broker in derivatives markets with $41 billion in assets, MF Global filed for bankruptcy on Monday after Mr. Corzine made disastrous bets on bonds issued by European governments. It initially appeared he was (only) gambling with his firm's own capital, but a federal official tells the Journal that MF Global has admitted diverting money out of customer accounts, which may be a violation of federal law.

This follows a report from futures exchange operator CME that MF Global was not complying with federal rules on segregating client funds. In bankruptcy court yesterday an MF lawyer said "To the best knowledge of management, there is no shortfall" in customer accounts. But the Journal reported late yesterday that the FBI is investigating the matter.

If reports of missing funds are true, it's a significant embarrassment for the firm's regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler has been leading the Beltway chorus for years in reciting the (false) story that the absence of regulation allowed AIG and its credit-default swaps to wreak havoc in 2008.

Never mind that the Treasury Department's Office of Thrift Supervision did regulate AIG, and that an OTS official testified before Congress that the agency signed off on the swaps because it didn't expect Armageddon in the housing market. Mr. Gensler nonetheless succeeded in gaining for himself and his agency broad new powers over the derivatives market as part of Dodd-Frank in 2010.

The MF Global case involves business that was unambiguously regulated by the CFTC long before Mr. Gensler built his new regulatory empire. In fact, the alleged MF Global failure goes to the basic regulatory blocking and tackling that the CFTC is supposed to perform, which includes ensuring that companies aren't raiding customer funds for their own trading.

It is also no small irony that MF Global was among the cheerleaders for Mr. Gensler's plans for new clearing arrangements under Dodd-Frank. Maybe if the regulators hadn't been so busy writing new rules, they would have checked if MF Global was following the old ones.

It was always fanciful to believe that the regulators who failed to prevent the last financial meltdown would somehow prevent the next one. The surprise is that this mirage of regulatory competence has been exposed so quickly.

[Orlando]

Por el apellido parece integrante de la "Cosa Nostra", una version demòcrata de El Padrino

[admin]

Mejor a lo esperado, ADP dice que se crearon 110,000 empleos en el sector privado en Octubre.

Au up 1,734

Los futures del Dwo Jones 56 puntos al alza.

Oil up 93.55

Libor igual 0.43%

El Asia cerro mixta

Francia y Alemania mas del 1% al alza, Inglaterra a la baja.

El indice del dolar a 76.39 o 0.5% a la baja.

El sector servicios creo 114,000 empleos.

Los pequenos negocios no crearon ningun empleo.

Euro up 1.3790