Miercoles 02/11/11 La decision del Fed sera opacada por Euro

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El Fed rebajara el pronostico de crecimiento de la economia.

Fed Poised to Cut Growth Forecast


By LUCA DI LEO
Federal Reserve officials are poised to downgrade their outlook for the U.S. economy, a shift that will play an important role in the debate about whether the Fed should do more to spur growth.

Officials don't seem ready to do more just yet. They are more likely to spend much of their two-day policy-making meeting, which ends Wednesday, discussing what measures they might take if the economy falters again, as it did this summer.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
.The Fed's new economic projections, to be released after the meeting, will compare with forecasts from mid-June, before the economy stumbled. Officials are likely to lower their projections for growth through 2013 and to predict that unemployment could remain high—possibly above 7.0%—through 2014. Most of the policy makers are expected to forecast that inflation won't be much of a problem in the years ahead.

Such a bleak outlook, with little price pressure, would normally prompt the Fed to act. However, interest rates are already very low, and many Fed officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, believe it is Congress and the White House that should do more to aid the economy. Also, the economy seems to have picked up a little after the summer, giving the Fed time to assess the impact of steps taken in August and September to boost growth.

In June, the Fed predicted U.S. gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, would grow around 2.8% this year, 3.5% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013. That is considerably stronger than most economists expect now. An October Wall Street Journal survey put economists' GDP forecasts at 1.5% this year, 2.3% in 2012 and 2.7% in 2013.

The unemployment rate, now 9.1%, is projected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to ease to 8.7% at the end of 2012 and 8.2% at the end of 2013. That is above the Fed's current predictions of 8.4% unemployment for 2012 and 7.8% for 2013.

Fed officials are considering whether to use their forecasts more explicitly to signal policy moves and, in turn, to influence the economy. In August, the bank made a conditional pledge to keep short-term interest rates close to zero until mid-2013, hoping to get consumers and companies to borrow and spend more. Now it is considering making that pledge more explicit by saying that rates won't rise until unemployment falls below a certain level and as long as inflation doesn't rise too much.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans wants the Fed to commit itself to near-zero short-term rates until unemployment falls below 7.0% or until officials expect inflation to rise over the next two or three years to above 3% per year.

Some of the Fed's key decision-makers are pushing for stronger action. Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen, New York Fed President William Dudley and Governor Daniel Tarullo have over the past 10 days warned that the economy is at risk and that the Fed may need to purchase more securities—a step known to some as quantitative easing—to push down long-term interest rates. Mr. Tarullo has suggested buying mortgage-backed securities to revive the housing market.

However, other officials have spoken out against further credit easing. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed shouldn't pump more money into the economy because inflation picked up this year, while Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said recent Fed action to push down long-term rates benefited traders but failed to create jobs.

Mr. Bernanke will probably want to see more evidence that the economy is too weak and prices too low before he moves toward buying more securities. In a recent speech, he focused on the benefits of better communicating the Fed's likely actions to the public. It was the chairman's last speech before the policymaking meeting, which is sometimes taken as a cue for what the Fed will do next.The chairman is scheduled to hold a news conference after the meeting, where he will have an opportunity to explain the committee's thinking in more detail.

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Oil up 93.23

Yields up 2.04%

+45

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La queja estos dias:

No puede ser que nuestras inversiones esten rehenes, en las manos de Berlusconi y cuantos Maseratis compro el gobierno Italiano. muy cierto. Italia es el proximo target. Grecia ya fue.

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Au up 1,729

+68

Oil up 93.41

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Inglaterra paso al alza.

Los especialistas: Este es el mercado mas dificil de nuestras vidas. Buena suerte.

Europa al alza.

Ag up 33.86

Un dia antes del escandalo de MF, Corzine dio un discurso para la banca en New York. Nadie podia imaginarse lo que iba a pasar.

Alemania +1.22%

Euro up 1.3804

+64

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Yen up 78.05

+56

Los comentaristas de CNBC (todos liberales, excepto por dos) tratando de defender a Corzine, se dan cuenta al final que no pueden, no ha excusas para justificar lo ocurrido, el decir que hizo estupideces no ayuda.

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En el canal publico vi una vez un especial sobre la vida en Italia, el punto del programa era ver como los Italianos cerraban sus tiendas y descansaban a la hora del almuerzo, se tomaban una copa de vino, se reunian con sus amigos o simplemente tomaban una siesta, no importaba que hubieran clientes que querian ir de compras a medio dia. Lo mas importante para ellos y era el ejemplo que querian transmitir al mundo, y el objetivo del programa que ellos disfrutaban la vida y trataban de equilibrar el trabajo con la vida personal, es mas no sacrificaban su vida personal. Muy lindo, seguramente causaria la envidia de muchos trabajadores alrededor del mundo, especialmente para los que tienen solo media hora de almuerzo y para los que no tienen hora de almuerzo y comen si se puede y si no se la siguen de largo (como los doctores) o los duenios de negocios (que conozco algunos)

Alli esta tanta mentira y tanto equilibrio. La vagancia no se debe reforzar, la realidad es que hay que trabajar muy duro todo el dia y todos los dias para poder salir adelante, no hay otra, especialmente si vivimos de nuestro sueldo y queremos superarnos.

Por eso mejor decir la verdad, a trabajar duro, no queda otra.

Estas crisis nos estan ensenando lecciones valiosas.

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Au up 1,734

Oil up 93.51

+61.45

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SCCO +3.70%

BVN +1.18%

EPU +4.47%

BAP +0.53%

C +4.05%

ERX +7.40%

EDC +7.79%

EGO +2.19%

SLW +2.26%

AAPL +0.78%

FAS +7.05%

XLF +2.57%

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VIX down 33.51

+130.55

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No se espera mucho del Fed.

+143.19

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EPU +5.21%

BAP a 107.34 +1.17%

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USO +2.56%

+161.43

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Ag up 34.16

Euro up 1.3816

Oil up 93.52


+159.24

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NFLX va a repuntar puede demorar algo pero esa empresa es solida.

+0.60%

RVBD +0.70%

LULU +1.93%

Esa ropa de Lululemon realmente es bella, de excelente calidad, no parece ropa para hacer ejercicios. Da pena sudarla, tan bonita que es. Tiene garantia de cinco anios, por eso es cara.