Miercoles 16/11/11, CPI, produccion industrial, ind.casas

[admin]

El mercado de bonos Europeo se desmorona, los bonos comienzan a asumir el peor escenario: la ruptura de la zona euro. El incremento de los yields aumenta el stress financniero.

HEARD ON THE STREETNOVEMBER 16, 2011, 9:31 A.M. ET.Euro-Zone Bonds Come Unstuck

By RICHARD BARLEY
Europe's bond markets are in meltdown. What started as a manageable problem in Greece has reached the heart of Europe. As investors lose confidence, bonds may be starting to price in extreme outcomes such as a euro-zone break-up. The more they do so, the more likely these outcomes become, as higher yields increase financial stress. The crisis is feeding on itself.

In the past week, French and Austrian 10-year government bond yields have widened by 0.6 percentage point compared to Germany. Even the Netherlands and Finland have been caught up in the crisis, with spreads widening 0.2 percentage point. These are big moves in sovereign bond market terms. Liquidity is draining away: Bid-offer spreads on French 10-year bonds have quintupled to 0.5 percentage point versus the first half of this year, according to Tradeweb data.

The contagion to the Netherlands and Finland is particularly concerning. Finland had a 2010 deficit of just 2.5% of gross domestic product and debt-to-GDP of 48.3%. One explanation could be that investors who have sold southern European debt at a loss are cashing in Dutch and Finnish bonds—which have returned 7.2% and 5.3% year-to-date, respectively, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch—to balance the books. That suggests the selloff will eventually create an attractive buying point.

A more disturbing explanation is that the yield divergence reflects growing fears of a euro-zone breakup and the reintroduction of national currencies. In that case, the move could have further to run since new currencies even in triple-A countries would be likely to depreciate versus a new German mark: Assuming a 25% chance of a 10% currency depreciation, a two-year French bond yielding 1.67% would return 0.3%, Citigroup calculates.

Perhaps the increased turmoil will lead to more forceful European Central Bank intervention. But the root of the problem is persistent imbalances in the euro-zone economy, which can only be truly resolved through either permanent fiscal transfers, or a break-up—neither of which is in the ECB's hands. The more the market realizes the ECB cannot deliver a permanent fix, and the longer politicians dither, the worse the turmoil is likely to get.

[admin]

-117.12

[Peterd]

Alguna noticia de Volcan en BVL.
3.00 +9.49

[admin]

SCCO -1.40%

BVN -1.44%

EPU +0.20%

BAP -1.25%

[admin]

Solo que arreglaron lo de la huelga. Es lo unico que he leido.

[admin]

EDC -4.93%

RIO -2.20%

AAPL +0.39%

FAS -3.67%

[admin]

Eventualmente Europa tendra que usar la impresora.

[admin]

USO +2.24%

MMR +0.72%

RIG +1.07%

NG +4.88%

ERX -1.34%

[admin]

-118.29

[admin]

A las 10 los indicadores de US, a ver si cambian la dinamica del dia.

[Peterd]

Volcan en los primeros minutos ya viene negociando 2'335,000 acciones.
2.98 30,000 2.99 5,000

[admin]

-115.41

[admin]

Au down 1,755

[admin]

VIX up 32.61

Oil up 101.48 retrocediendo algo

-116.55

[admin]

El euro mejorando 1.3501

Ag down 33.5