Martes 22/11/11 En negativo en el anio, GDP

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Eventos economicos

Martes

Ventas de tiendas
Estimado del PBI (GDP)
Ganancias corporativas
Subasta de bonos
Minutas del Fed

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


GDP
8:30 AM ET


Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET

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El rating de US fue confirmado por S&P y Moody's a pesar que el supercomite de republicanos y democratas fracasaron en su intento (no muy serio) de recortar el deficit en $1.5 trillones.

U.S. Ratings Affirmed by S&P, Moody’s
By Zeke Faux and John Detrixhe - Nov 21, 2011 7:04 PM ET .
Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said they won’t lower ratings on the U.S. after the congressional committee charged with finding $1.5 trillion of deficit cuts failed to reach an agreement.

S&P, which stripped the U.S. of its top AAA grade on Aug. 5, said yesterday that the supercommittee’s inability to reach agreement didn’t merit another downgrade because the inaction will trigger $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts. The deliberations were “not decisive,” Moody’s spokesman Eduardo Barker said in an e-mail after the panel issued a statement.

The August downgrade sparked the biggest quarterly rally in U.S. Treasuries since the end of 2008, while global equities lost $9.7 trillion in market value during that period. The lack of a deal raises the risk of slower growth and deprives President Barack Obama of a vehicle to extend a payroll tax cut and insurance benefits for unemployed Americans, which expire at the end of the year.

“What I worry about is if we don’t make any changes and the market will become less permissive,” Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. who helps oversee about $73 billion from Santa Fe, New Mexico, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Politicians typically do try to negate some of the required cuts.”

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 1.96 percent in New York yesterday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.9 percent to 1,192.98.

‘Downward Pressure’
While S&P expects the Budget Control Act’s spending reductions to “remain in force,” easing those limits may cause “downward pressure on the ratings,” S&P analysts Nikola Swann and John Chambers said yesterday in a statement.

Moody’s, which put the country on “negative outlook” in August, said the committee’s deadlock wouldn’t on its own cause the U.S. to lose its top rating because of the automatic cuts. Fitch Ratings, which also gives the U.S. its highest ranking, said on Aug. 16 that a failure by the committee would “likely result in negative rating action.”

Brian Bertsch, a New York-based spokesman at Fitch, declined yesterday to comment on the supercommitte announcement.

New York-based S&P’s August decision was flawed by a $2 trillion error, according to the Treasury Department. S&P disputed the Treasury’s assertions and said using the department’s preferred spending measures in its analysis didn’t affect its credit grade. S&P was criticized by President Barack Obama and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett, who said the U.S. should have been upgraded to “quadruple-A.”

Debt Outstanding
“Investors look right through the agencies,” Greg Peters, global head of fixed-income research at Morgan Stanley, said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.” “They’re going to invest how they see fit.”

The $1.3 trillion U.S. budget deficit in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 was about 8.7 percent of gross domestic product, the third-largest percentage in the past 65 years, exceeded only by the deficits in 2009 and 2010, according to Treasury statistics. U.S. marketable debt outstanding has doubled to $9.7 trillion since the end of 2007 as tax receipts plunged and the government boosted spending amid the worst recession since the Great Depression.

The supercommittee’s collapse triggers across-the-board spending cuts to domestic and defense programs set to take effect starting in January 2013.

Arizona Senator John McCain, a Republican, has said the provision for automatic spending cuts could be removed.

Automatic Cuts
“If they undo the Budget Control Act, that would be a negative,” Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s, said Nov. 1 in an interview. “We’re not expecting that.”

“After months of hard work and intense deliberations, we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to make any bipartisan agreement available to the public before the committee’s deadline,” panel co-chairmen Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas and Senator Patty Murray of Washington said yesterday.

After the government almost reached its borrowing limit before striking the deal that created the supercommittee, S&P lowered the U.S.’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA on Aug. 5. The ratings firm said the government is becoming “less stable, less effective and less predictable.”

The S&P 500 Index plunged 6.7 percent on the first trading day after the downgrade, while government bonds rallied as investors sought safety. Treasuries returned 6.4 percent last quarter, the most since the three months ended December 2008, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index.

‘Change the Rule’
House Majority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, have said they support the automatic cuts. “The markets should know that the deficit reduction will occur,” Pelosi said on Nov. 3. Boehner has said he “personally” feels a moral obligation to uphold the agreement.

“Congress hasn’t managed to change the ratings agencies’ opinions,” Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the announcement. “There’s a potential that future Congresses could attempt to dilute the effects of planned budget cutbacks.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Zeke Faux in New York at zfaux@bloomberg.net;

To contact the reporters on this story: John Detrixhe

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 0/32 0.266
10-Year Note* 1/32 1.950
* at close

7:44 p.m. EST 11/21/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.90 -0.02 96.92
Gold 1675.5 -3.1 1678.6
E-mini Dow 11523 -2 11525
E-mini S&P 500 1192.00 1.25 1190.75

7:55 p.m. EST 11/21/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 76.97 76.89
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3495 1.3490
† Late Monday in New York.

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Oil down 96.89

Euro up 1.3494

Au down 1,676.50

Ag and cu up

Los futures del Dow Jones 15 puntos al alza.

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Korea +0.34%, Australia -0.72%, el Nikkei -0.52%

Yen down 76.97

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El descontento por el gobierno de Obama es cada dia hasta en los mismos democratas, ayer dos jefes de campanias de ex presidentes democratas le pidieron a Obama que se haga a un costado y que no postule a un segundo periodo, quieren que Hillary Clinton presente su candidatura.

Ayer tambien en la television salio uno de los mas democratas a decir cosas que jamas me imagine podrian decir contra Obama. Me tengo que refregar los ojos y destapar los oidos por que no lo puedo creer.

Las criticas son muy duras. El descontento es muy grande por que el fracaso es casi seguro.

[admin]

Copper November 21,22:19
Bid/Ask 3.3597 - 3.3618
Change +0.0599 +1.81%
Low/High 3.2985 - 3.3661
Charts

Nickel November 21,22:15
Bid/Ask 8.0706 - 8.1201
Change +0.0266 +0.33%
Low/High 8.0386 - 8.1223
Charts

Aluminum November 21,22:17
Bid/Ask 0.9236 - 0.9248
Change +0.0073 +0.79%
Low/High 0.9163 - 0.9250
Charts

Zinc November 21,22:19
Bid/Ask 0.8720 - 0.8731
Change +0.0087 +1.01%
Low/High 0.8628 - 0.8741
Charts

Lead November 21,21:49
Bid/Ask 0.8998 - 0.9030
Change +0.0085 +0.95%
Low/High 0.8909 - 0.9039
Charts

[admin]

5:24 p.m. EST 11/21/11Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note*   0/32 0.266
10-Year Note*   1/32 1.950
* at close
10:28 p.m. EST 11/21/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.86 -0.06 96.92
Gold 1685.5 6.9 1678.6
E-mini Dow 11556 31 11525
E-mini S&P 500 1195.75 5.00 1190.75
10:38 p.m. EST 11/21/11Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 77.09 76.89
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3490 1.3490
† Late Monday in New York.

[admin]

El yen baja despues que las agencias ratifican el rating the US.

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El Tokyo exchange se consolida con Osaka.

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No aparecen nada menos que $1.2 billones de los clientes de MF.

[admin]

Tomorrow’s Tape: Minutes by Minutes

By Mark Gongloff
Economics:

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Commerce Department takes another look at third-quarter GDP to see if there’s any growth it missed the first time it rooted around under the couch cushions. Economists think not, expecting a second read of 2.3%, down from a first estimate of 2.5%. This report also brings us our first look at corporate profits for the quarter. Strong to very strong, is the forecast for those.

At 1:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says something hawkish.

At 2:00 p.m. we get minutes from the most recent FOMC policy meeting. They will be parsed for any sign of a hint of a promise of a hope of QE3.

Earnings:

Before the bell we get results from:

Campbell Soup
Hormel Foods
Patterson
Medtronic

[admin]

El Shanghai C. -0.94%, el Hang Seng -0.94%, Korea -0.16%, Australia -0.84%, el Nikkei -0.86%

Euro down 1.3485

Los futures dell Dow Jones 26 puntos al alza.

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -0/32 0.270
10-Year Note -6/32 1.972
* at close

8:03 a.m. EST 11/22/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 98.03 1.11 96.92
Gold 1693.5 14.9 1678.6
E-mini Dow 11529 4 11525
E-mini S&P 500 1192.75 2.00 1190.75

8:12 a.m. EST 11/22/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 76.93 76.89
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3537 1.3490
† Late Monday in New York

[admin]

Copper November 22,07:59
Bid/Ask 3.3528 - 3.3542
Change +0.0530 +1.60%
Low/High 3.2985 - 3.3729
Charts

Nickel November 22,07:57
Bid/Ask 8.1110 - 8.1269
Change +0.0670 +0.83%
Low/High 8.0386 - 8.1677
Charts

Aluminum November 22,07:59
Bid/Ask 0.9227 - 0.9236
Change +0.0064 +0.69%
Low/High 0.9163 - 0.9307
Charts

Zinc November 22,07:59
Bid/Ask 0.8735 - 0.8744
Change +0.0102 +1.18%
Low/High 0.8628 - 0.8764
Charts

Lead November 22,07:57
Bid/Ask 0.8941 - 0.8961
Change +0.0028 +0.32%
Low/High 0.8909 - 0.9039