Jueves 12/08/11 La decision del ECB: recorte de intereses

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Los lideres Europeos se reunen dicen que estan buscando una nueva unidad fiscal y mantendran integra a la zona. El mercado mejora.

-138

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Alemania acaba de rechazar el borrador del acuerdo. La bolsa vuelve a bajar.

-148

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Oil down 98.13

Euro down 1.3342 ha mejorado algo

Au down 1,711

-156

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Alemania rechaza que el ESFS y ESM funcionen simultaneamente.(Fondos de rescate)

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Fuertes divisiones entre FRancia y Alemania, los Franceses no saben lo que es unidad fiscal.

Alemania quiere sanciones automaticas. Varios paises no quieren sanciones. Que graciosos.

-200

Oil down 97.89

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No hay unidad. Siguen las peleas, mientras tanto el Dow Jones se zambulle.

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Euro down 77.70

-202.68

Al mercado no le gusta nada de esto, que mas es nuevo?

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Dos muertos en un tiroteo en una universidad Virgina Tech, la misma donde hubo un tiroteo anteriormente.

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-207

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Alemania no aprueba nada de lo que proponen, no bonos, no licencia para el banco, no rescates simultaneos, no nada.

Se frego Europa.

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Y de paso el resto del mundo.

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El sector financiero cae 3.6%

Yeilds down 1.97%

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-198.44 a 11,997.70

Oil down 98

Alemania no quiere que el fondo de rescate se vuelva un banco.

Euro down 1.3349 pero mejorando, Europeos repatriando.

VIX up 30.57

Hoy se amanecen a ver si llegan a algun acuerdo.

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Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 1/32 0.230
10-Year Note 18/32 1.976
* at close

4:18 p.m. EST 12/08/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 97.98 -2.51 100.49
Gold 1712.6 -32.2 1713.4
E-mini Dow 11942 -204 12146
E-mini S&P 500 1229.50 -28.70 1258.25

4:28 p.m. EST 12/08/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 77.71 77.68
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3344 1.3413
† Late Wednesday in New York.

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Y aqui va el rumor de las 3:30 p.m. de Europa

Cada 24 horas viene el rumor que excita or aterroriza al mercado.

El rumor de hoy dia via Reuters quien ha pasado varios titulares como si fueran directamente de la zona euro.

No hay nada nuevo o util en esto, pero naturalmente las acciones se las estan comiendo. El Dow esta abajo solo 90 puntos, ganando 70 en muy poco tiempo.

El mercado de bonos, mas inteligente, como siempre, no cree nada, con el yield de 10 anios debajo de 1.99%

Estan listos para una comedia?

Aparentemente Alemania ha rechazado la propuesta. Todo a la baja de nuevo, la resolucion de maniana tendra efecto por cuanto tiempo? cinco minutos?

La leccion aqui es: siempre escucha al mercado de bonos.

Aqui van los titulares de Reuters:


Here It Comes, Your Daily 3:30 P.M. Euro Rumor

By Mark Gongloff

Every 24 hours the weary mule that tugs the sun around the heavens comes to this point in his long day, the hour when somebody drops some goofy euro-zone rumor that gets stocks excited/terrified.

Today’s rumor comes via Reuters, which has flashed a series of headlines that are apparently highlights of some draft euro-zone statement.

There is absolutely nothing new and/or useful in here, but stocks are naturally eating it up. The Dow is now down just 90 points, gaining about 70 points in a short time.

The smarter bond market, as usual, is having none of it, with the 10-year Treasury yield still down to 1.99%.

Update: Are you ready for some comedy? Now Germany has apparently rejected this draft. Stocks are right back to the lows. Good times. How long will tomorrow’s rumor-fueled pop last? Five minutes?

The lesson here: Always listen to the bond market.

Here are the Reuters headlines:

Today 15:11 – EU LEADERS DETERMINED TO PRESERVE INTEGRITY OF THE EU, COHERENCE BETWEEN EURO ZONE AND NON-EURO-ZONE — DRAFT CONCLUSIONS
Today 15:11 – EU LEADERS DETERMINED TO MOVE TOWARDS “NEW FISCAL COMPACT” – SUMMIT DRAFT
Today 15:12 – EU LEADERS SAY DETERMINED TO STRENGTHEN BAIL-OUT MECHANISMS TO TACKLE IMMEDIATE DEBT CRISIS CHALLENGES – DRAFT
Today 15:15 – FISCAL COMPACT WILL REQUIRE “NEW DEAL” BETWEEN EURO ZONE MEMBER STATES WITH RULES ENSHRINED IN NEW LEGAL FRAMEWORK – DRAFT
Today 15:16 – EURO ZONE AIMS FOR NEW RULE TO ENSURE BUDGET DEFICITS DO NOT EXCEED 0.5 PCT OF GDP – DRAFT
Today 15:17 – EURO ZONE MEMBER STATES MUST REPORT NATIONAL DEBT ISSUANCE PLANS IN ADVANCE – DRAFT
Today 15:17 – RULES ON EXCESSIVE DEFICIT PROCEDURE TO BE REINFORCED FOR EURO ZONE MEMBER STATES – DRAFT
Today 15:18 – SANCTIONS WILL BE IMPOSED ON RULE-BREAKERS AUTOMATICALLY UNLESS OPPOSED BY QUALIFIED MAJORITY VOTE – DRAFT
Today 15:19 – POSSIBILITY OF MOVING TOWARDS COMMON EURO ZONE DEBT ISSUANCE IN LONGER TERM SHOULD BE CONSIDERED – DRAFT

Update 2: Dow Jones Newswires has matched with its own draft headlines, none of which matter any more because Germany has rejected at least some or all of it, according to Reuters, and the Dow is now down 180 points. But FYI:

EU Draft Conclusion Calls For Creation Of Fiscal Compact
EU Draft Conclusion Calls For ESM Start July 2012
EU Draft Conclusions See EFSF Running Alongside ESM
EU Draft Conclusion Says ESM To Have EUR500B On Top Of EFSF Capital
EU To Stick To IMF Practice On Private Sector Involvement – Draft Conclusions
EU Says Greek Debt Restructuring “Unique And Exceptional”-Draft
ESM Decisions To Be Made By 85%, Not Unanimity Vote If ECB, Commission Believe Urgent – Draft
Euro-Area Countries Ready To Provide IMF With Bilateral Loans -Draft
Dumb and Dumber, European debt, eurozone woes, Rumors