Jueves 15/12/11 Manufactura en New York y Philadelphia

[jonibol]

Tienes toda la razón Admin, pero me refería a los acuerdos fiscales para reducir gastos y hacer sostenibles las finanzas públicas. Lo expresé mal. Sorry.

[admin]

+63

[RISTA]

KALLPA SECURITIES SOCIEDAD AGENTE DE BOLSA

Enviamos un interesante comentario de nuestra analista senior, María Belén Veg, sobre su reciente visita a la mina de Trevali Mining.

Buenos Días,

Hoy cuatro bancos de inversión en Canadá, han realizado comentarios positivos en relación a Trevali Mining Corp. (BVL:TV, TSX:TV), reiterando sus valores objetivo:

• Raymond James: CAD$ 1.95
• Versant Partners (BUY): CAD$ 4.00
• GMP: (BUY) CAD$ 2.75
• MPartners: CAD$ 3.00

Como muchos saben, Trevali está a puertas de iniciar producción en el proyecto de zinc Halfmile & Stratmat en Bathurst Mining Camp en New Brunswick, Canadá. A algunos les comenté que estuve la semana pasada en Canadá visitando las instalaciones de Halfmile. (Bastante frio!!!!). En mi opinión, luego de ingresar a la mina subterránea inclusive, Halfmile presenta un nivel de avance de 90% para el inicio de operaciones en febrero. (posiblemente antes).

Les cuento un poquito de las operaciones para entrar en contexto:

Trevali va a extraer principalmente mineral de zinc y plomo (polimetálica) mediante la puesta en marcha de una mina subterránea en Halfmile a razón de 2K TPD (toneladas por día). A la fecha, Trevali no tiene construida una planta de procesamiento de mineral (molienda, flotación, producción de concentrados, etc.) y, por lo tanto, en el mediano plazo usará la planta de procesamiento Brunswick 12 propiedad de Xstrata Zinc, que tiene una capacidad de operación de 10K TPD. Esta noticia estaba descontada por el mercado dado que Trevali había señalado anteriormente entre sus planes, la contratación de este servicio de “maquila”. No obstante, ayer se anunció formalmente un acuerdo con Xstrata Zinc válido por 20 años y renovable hasta 80 años para la provisión de dicho servicio.

Esta noticia es muy importante dado que reduce significativamente el riesgo de procesamiento del mineral para Halfmile. Como ya se sabe, las reservas existentes en Brunswick 12 están próximas a agotarse en los próximos meses y, antes a esta noticia, existía incertidumbre sobre la continuidad de las operaciones de Xstrata Zinc en Brunswick 12. Por ende, no se sabía a ciencia cierta si Halfmile tenía asegurado el procesamiento de mineral. Ahora, este acuerdo no implica que Trevali necesariamente tendría que procesar el mineral en la planta de Xstrata. Es más, la Gerencia señaló no descartaría la construcción de una planta propia en el largo plazo, lo que reduciría significativamente los costos de producción. Trevali también señaló que estaría iniciando la entrega de mineral a Brunswick 12 en pocas semanas.
(Ver http://www.trevaliresources.com/s/NewsR ... fmile-Mine)

Recomiendo sobreponderar TV en los portafolios. Trevali iniciará producción de zinc dentro de muy poco. Creo que el mercado aun no ha descontado este hecho, más aun luego de sucesivas colocaciones privadas con un efecto dilutivo en la empresa. Actualmente, el precio de mercado es CAD$ 0.81 en Canadá y en promedio los analistas le otorgan un target Price de CAD$ 2.90 que representa un potencial de apreciación de más de 260%. Hay que tener en cuenta también los posibles cambios en la oferta mundial de zinc. Algunos analistas, como por ejemplo de Goldman Sachs, señalan que la contracción en la oferta de zinc generaría una presión al alza en el precio a partir del próximo año. Si bien este hecho podría ser compensado por una menor demanda de metales base en el próximo año por la coyuntura económica global, esto generaría un catalizador de valor de las productoras de zinc en el largo plazo.

Estar pendientes a los siguientes catalizadores:

• Inicio de producción de Halfmile (en unas semanas)
• Nuevos resultados de perforaciones adicionales en Santander y Stratmat (próximos meses)
• Inicio de producción de Santander (Primer trimestre 2012)
• Resultados de perforaciones en el proyecto de plata Huampar esperados para el primer semestre de 2012.

[RISTA]

Raymond James Ltd.
Canadian Equity Research - Dec-15-11
Trevali Mining Corporation TV-TSX
Full Steam Ahead at Halfmile
Adam Low, CFA

RATING Outperform 2
Target Price (6-12 mths) C$1.95
Closing Price C$0.81
Total Return to Target 141%

Event
During market hours on Dec-14-11 Trevali Mining announced that it has received its Mining Lease for the Halfmile mine in New Brunswick.

Action
We are maintaining our Outperform rating and C$1.95 target price. We continue to recommend investors buy the shares of Trevali as we expect an appreciation in the trading multiple as the company transitions to an operating mining entity from a developer. We expect production to begin at the company's Halfmile and Santander mines in 1Q12 and mid-2012, respectively.

Analysis
* Receipt of the Mining Lease - Trevali has received the Mining Lease for its Halfmile mine from New Brunswick's Department of Natural Resources. The lease is valid for an initial period of 20 years and is renewable for 20 year periods up to a total 80 years. This confirms our previous impression (as noted in our Nov-11-11 post-site visit Comment "Transformation - On the Verge of Becoming a Zinc Producer," price: $0.86) that there is a high level of support for the project from the local community and the provincial government, and our expectation that the company would be receiving its operating permit very soon.
* On track for first production in 1Q12 - Trevali commented that it anticipates beginning to mine ore at Halfmile imminently, and to deliver ore to Xstrata's (XTA-LN) Brunswick 12 mill over the upcoming weeks. This is consistent with our expectation of the underground development reaching the ore zone this month (Dec-2011), and the company making the first delivery of concentrate for processing at the Brunswick 12 mill in 1Q12.

Valuation
Trevali's shares trade at a P/NAV of 0.28x. Our C$1.95 target price is based on a 0.70x multiple applied to our NAV of C$2.86 (see Exhibit 1) per share (in-line with risk- and liquidity-adjusted historical developer multiples).

[admin]

+48

[admin]

Tienes toda la razón Admin, pero me refería a los acuerdos fiscales para reducir gastos y hacer sostenibles las finanzas públicas. Lo expresé mal. Sorry.

No sorry, por que ese estimulo solo sirvio para endeudar al pais mas. Tienes razon en lo que dijiste.

[admin]

42

[admin]

RIMM mejor a lo esperado en las utilidades, EPS $1.27, ventas $5.2 billones

RIMM +2.18%

[admin]

MARKETS - AT A GLANCE
4:16 p.m. EST 12/15/11Major Stock Indexes Last Change % Chg
DJIA* 11868.81 45.33 0.38
Nasdaq* 2541.01 1.70 0.07
S&P 500* 1215.75 3.93 0.32
DJ Total Stock Market* 12677.01 51.27 0.41
Russell 2000 715.88 7.42 1.05
Global Dow 1751.90 4.99 0.29
Japan: Nikkei Average* 8377.37 -141.76 -1.66
Stoxx Europe 600* 234.73 2.29 0.99
UK: FTSE 100* 5400.85 34.05 0.63
Get this by E-mail * at close

[admin]

El oro y el petroleo siguen con la resaca de ayer.

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 0/32 0.246
10-Year Note -1/32 1.910
* at close

4:06 p.m. EST 12/15/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 93.46 -1.49 94.95
Gold 1570.5 -16.4 1577.2
E-mini Dow 11812 50 11762
E-mini S&P 500 1211.25 5.00 1206.25

4:16 p.m. EST 12/15/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 77.91 78.08
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3017 1.2982
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

He escuchado a muchos manager de fondos decir que los politicos europeos no inspiran confianza, solo el mercado puede forzarlos a tomar medidas y reformas drasticas y cambiar el estilo de vida de los europeos, en el momento que el IMF y el ECB aflojen y vayan a la ayuda, inmediatamente volveran a las malas practicas y a las malas costumbres, por eso la presion tiene que ser muy fuerte y la unica presion que cuenta es la del mercado.

Mientras tanto estaremos en las mismas.

[admin]

Sera posible que los dos partidos puedan llegar a un acuerdo a un anio de las elecciones? sera verdad tanta belleza?

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Buenas noticias

Los legisladores tienen esperanza de pasar la extension del recorte del impuesto a los ingresos y el gasto del gobierno.

Los dos partidos dijeron que estaban optimistas con las perspectivas de conciliar una posicion que satisfaga a ambos partidos. Quedan algunas p artes menores por conciliar.

Los republicanos lograron que los democratas (Obama) desistiera de aumentarle los impuestos a los que ganan mas de $1 millon.

POLITICSDECEMBER 15, 2011, 4:24 P.M. ET.Lawmakers Hopeful on Payroll, Spending Deals

By SIOBHAN HUGHES And KRISTINA PETERSON
WASHINGTON—With a potential shutdown of the U.S. government looming, Senate Democratic and Republican leaders Thursday dropped their combative tones and said they were optimistic they could soon resolve differences over a payroll-tax cut and a spending bill.

"There are a few issues still outstanding, but they're really small in number," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said on the Senate floor regarding a spending bill to keep the government funded beyond Friday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, shown on Tuesday, said Thursday there were a few issue to be resolved before a compromise could be reached.
.Mr. Reid said he has been in touch with leaders from the House and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) on a payroll-tax cut package and "we hope we can come up with something that would get us out of here at a reasonable time in the next few days."

Senate Democrats dropped their insistence that the Social Security payroll-tax cut should be paid for with a surcharge on incomes above $1 million a year. Senate Democrats also indicated that they would be willing to proceed with a measure to keep the government funded through fiscal 2012, stepping back from a game of brinksmanship after they had refused to go forward until Republicans started negotiating on the payroll-tax cut.

But the Democratic concessions still leave unresolved how the two sides will go forward with paying for the payroll-tax cut package, an extension of federal unemployment benefits, and a measure to avoid cuts to doctors who serve Medicare patients.

"I appreciate the fact that they gave up on the millionaire's surtax," House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) said on Thursday. But he said "they didn't give anything up" because "they never had the votes for their so-called millionaire's surtax."

The negotiations are looking at a range of offsets, including some in a GOP-passed House payroll-tax cut package and others that were identified by a congressional deficit-reduction supercommittee, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the large size of the package leaves open the possibility that Congress may ultimately try to advance some portions without paying for the cost.

A Senate Democratic aide repeated on Thursday that Democrats also would be open to a package that doesn't pay for the cost of extending the cut. The White House has taken the same position.

WSJ's John McKinnon is on Mean Street to discuss the government shutdown that could result from the current battle over taxes in Washington. (Photo: Getty Images)
.On Thursday, asked whether he could support a package that wasn't fully offset, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) told reporters that "if it was taxes that weren't offset, I would be willing to." In the past, Sen. Richard Lugar (R., Ind.) has also said that while he would prefer for the extension of a payroll-tax cut to be offset, he would probably support such an extension even without offsets for the sake of economic recovery.

Another outstanding issue involves a measure contained in a House-passed payroll-tax package to force a decision on a permit for TransCanada Corp.'s Keystone XL oil pipeline. Democrats and the Obama administration have said that it would be precipitous to force a decision, but Republicans say that construction of the pipeline would create tens of thousands of jobs.

"I think there are a lot of Republicans for whom the payroll holiday, accelerating the insolvency of Social Security, is not a good idea," Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) told reporters. "Sweetening it up by adding jobs I think is a net positive, and is going to be required to get some Republican votes."

Mr. Boehner called on Senate Democrats to sign off on a spending-bill compromise negotiated by Democrats and Republicans, allowing for House and Senate votes without exposing the bill to amendments that can jam the legislative process.

He also urged Senate Democrats to hold a vote on the House GOP-passed payroll-tax package, allowing amendments so that both parties can have their say. That overlooks a problem in the Senate, where Mr. McConnell has refused to allow a quick vote as a large block within the GOP caucus has refused to agree to a payroll-tax cut extension.

"If the Senate passes it, I'm committed to bringing the House back within 24 hours to deal with whatever the Senate does," Mr. Boehner said on the payroll-tax package. Democrats have worried that House Republican leaders would leave town without passing a payroll-tax package once a government-funding measure passed. "There is absolutely no interest on our part in trying to be strident about this," Mr. Boehner said.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.) told reporters Thursday that senior lawmakers and their staff were working to ease objections over a handful of controversial provisions in the funding bills and to figure out how to offset the cost of extending the expiring provisions if Democrats drop their millionaire's surtax.

"That's exactly where we're stuck is coming up with enough money to deal with [the] payroll-tax cut, unemployment [benefits], tax extenders and the 'doc fix'—that all comes to over $200 billion," Mr. Durbin said. Democrats have previously said they would be willing to extend some of the year-end provisions without balancing their cost with spending cuts or other savings.

If Congress fails to act, the tax that funds Social Security will revert to 6.2% from 4.2% for employees. Mr. Reid this week had Democrats refrain from signing off on the funding compromise, or conference report, in a move to pressure Republicans to negotiate. That must pass before midnight Friday or parts of the government will begin to shut down.

Mr. Boehner met last night with Messrs. McConnell and Reid—a promising sign after days in which it appeared the sides weren't talking to each other. As a backup plan, House Republican leaders filed a funding bill in the middle of the night that would have allowed the House to show it was moving forward on the spending issue.

[admin]

WFC optimista de que podra comprar unidades de la banca europea.

[admin]

Argentina crecio mas que el Peru, 9.3% dijeron.

[admin]

Todos los estudios economicos demuestran que es un error subir el sueldo minimo, los mas afectados son los desempleados.

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Confiep: No se debe subir la remuneración mínima vital
14 de diciembre de 2011 | 08:38 a.m.Jaime Cok - web@epensa.com.peLima - El presidente de la Confederación Nacional de Instituciones Empresariales Privadas (Confiep), Humberto Speziani, y el experto en temas laborales Jorge Toyama, coincidieron en sostener que antes de elevar, en el segundo tramo, la Remuneración Mínima Vital (RMV), se debe evaluar si es el momento adecuado por la crisis internacional que atraviesa el mundo.


Bajo ese contexto, adelantaron que para ellos sería inoportuno subirla en el primer trimestre del próximo año.

"No sería oportuno elevarla hasta que no se haga una evaluación seria del impacto positivo y negativo que ha tenido el alza del primer tramo", insistió Speziani en Pulso Empresarial.

Entre tanto, el laboralista Toyama agregó que sería la primer vez que se haga una evaluación acerca de si es bueno subir el sueldo mínimo.

"Sería la primera vez que haga con un criterio técnico y no político", mencionó.

Tres puntos. Más adelante, dijo que la evaluación que haga el Ejecutivo debe contar con un estudio salarial, el visto bueno del Consejo del Trabajo y luego ver cual es el nivel en que debe subir. Recordó que la gran tarea no es elevar la RMV sino integrar al empleo formal a millones de peruanos que trabajan al margen