Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 10:44 am
Evans del Fed de Chicago dice que la modesta mejoria en la economia requiere mas estimulo monetario.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por jonibol » Mié Ene 11, 2012 10:47 am
admin escribió:Evans del Fed de Chicago dice que la modesta mejoria en la economia requiere mas estimulo monetario.
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Me parece que este el miembro del FED más activo en pedir más estímulo monetario?
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 10:48 am
Merkel dijo que Alemania estaria lista para poner mas capital al fondo de rescate.
A Hungria le suspenderian temporalmente la ayuda como sancion a la violacion del nivel de deficit.
Los bonos de Espana e Italia suben antes de la subasta que ofreceran maniana.
Irlanda volveria al mercado soberano en 6 meses.
A Hungria le suspenderian temporalmente la ayuda como sancion a la violacion del nivel de deficit.
Los bonos de Espana e Italia suben antes de la subasta que ofreceran maniana.
Irlanda volveria al mercado soberano en 6 meses.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 10:49 am
El Fed esta muy expansionista este anio de eleccion....???? estan pidiendo coordinada ayuda con el congreso a los duenios de casas tambien.
El sector vivienda le daria un 2% de crecimiento al PBI (GDP) y significaria una caida sustancia en el desempleo.
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El sector vivienda le daria un 2% de crecimiento al PBI (GDP) y significaria una caida sustancia en el desempleo.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 10:54 am
Alemania al borde de la recesion, su economia se contrajo 0.25% en el cuarto trimestre, crecio 3% en el anio comparado con 3.7% en el 2010. Se espera que esa economia crezca solamente 0.6% en el 2012. (La tristeza)
Germany May Be on Brink of Recession
By Jeff Black and Jana Randow - Jan 11, 2012 6:11 AM ET .
Growth slowed to 3 percent in 2011 from 3.7 percent in 2010, which was the most since German reunification two decades earlier, the statistics office said.
Germany may be on the brink of recession after the sovereign debt crisis caused the economy to contract in the final quarter of 2011.
Europe’s largest economy shrank “roughly” 0.25 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today in an unofficial estimate. Economists such as Christian Schulz at Berenberg Bank expect gross domestic product to contract again in the current quarter. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
“If the euro crisis does not get worse or is finally brought under control after another wave in early 2012, the German economy can rebound nicely from the summer onwards,” said Schulz, a senior economist with Berenberg in London. “However, we see a 25 percent chance of the euro crisis remaining out of control longer, or completely spiraling out of control with a series of sovereign and bank defaults. In such a scenario, Germany would enter a major recession.”
Growth slowed to 3 percent in 2011 from 3.7 percent in 2010, which was the most since German reunification two decades earlier, the statistics office said. The economy last contracted in 2009, when it was in the throes of the global financial crisis. Unemployment at a two-decade low may bolster growth this year by supporting consumer spending.
Domestic Demand
Domestic demand was the main contributor to GDP growth last year, adding 2.1 percentage points, today’s report showed. Private consumption increased 1.5 percent in the year, while government spending rose 1.2 percent. Investment in plant and machinery gained 8.3 percent.
The euro rose after the 2011 GDP report before giving up its gains to trade at $1.2755 at 11:50 a.m. in Frankfurt. European stocks fluctuated, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained less than 0.1 percent.
The weaker global economy and waning demand from debt- stricken euro-area neighbors have eroded German foreign sales, the main pillar of its economic expansion. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage point to growth last year, with exports up 8.2 percent and imports gaining 7.2 percent. In 2010, exports increased 13.7 percent.
“All in all, the German economy has remained relatively resilient,” said Annalisa Piazza, an economist at Newedge Group in London. “Signs of moderation have recently emerged but we expect the German economy to remain afloat in the coming quarters, maintaining its role as the major engine of growth for the euro area.”
2012 Forecast
German growth will slow to 0.6 percent this year before recovering to 1.8 percent in 2013, the Bundesbank predicted on Dec. 19. The European Central Bank, which has cut interest rates to a record low and flooded the banking system with cash during the debt crisis, last month reduced its 2012 growth forecast for the 17-nation euro region to just 0.3 percent.
Spanish industrial production fell the most in two years in November reflecting a contraction in the euro area’s fourth- largest economy as the government prepares to implement a new wave of austerity. Output at factories, refineries and mines adjusted for the number of working days declined 7 percent from a year earlier, the most since October 2009, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today.
In the U.K., the goods-trade deficit widened more than economists forecast in November as exports dropped, the Office for National Statistics said. The trade gap widened to 8.64 billion pounds ($13.6 billion) from 7.87 billion pounds in October. Exports fell 1.5 percent on the month while imports rose 1.1 percent.
Beige Book
The effects of Europe’s debt crisis may cost the U.S. as much as half a percentage point in economic growth this year, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said at an event in Frankfurt today.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey later today, and the Mortgage Bankers Association will give data on mortgage applications for the week ended Jan. 6.
“The debt crisis is unprecedented and economic forecasts in this environment are very difficult,” said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, who expects the German economy to contract “a little” in the first three months of this year. “For 2012 as a whole, we expect stagnation,” he said.
There are signs Germany’s economic downturn will be shallow. Business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month in December and service industries expanded.
The statistics office said today it may revise its fourth- quarter GDP assessment by the time official data are published on Feb. 15.
“Minus 0.25 percent is a too-pessimistic call both on the basis of hard and soft data,” said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit in Munich. “Our bottom line: Don’t worry too much about 2012, and let’s be grateful about last year.”
Germany May Be on Brink of Recession
By Jeff Black and Jana Randow - Jan 11, 2012 6:11 AM ET .
Growth slowed to 3 percent in 2011 from 3.7 percent in 2010, which was the most since German reunification two decades earlier, the statistics office said.
Germany may be on the brink of recession after the sovereign debt crisis caused the economy to contract in the final quarter of 2011.
Europe’s largest economy shrank “roughly” 0.25 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today in an unofficial estimate. Economists such as Christian Schulz at Berenberg Bank expect gross domestic product to contract again in the current quarter. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
“If the euro crisis does not get worse or is finally brought under control after another wave in early 2012, the German economy can rebound nicely from the summer onwards,” said Schulz, a senior economist with Berenberg in London. “However, we see a 25 percent chance of the euro crisis remaining out of control longer, or completely spiraling out of control with a series of sovereign and bank defaults. In such a scenario, Germany would enter a major recession.”
Growth slowed to 3 percent in 2011 from 3.7 percent in 2010, which was the most since German reunification two decades earlier, the statistics office said. The economy last contracted in 2009, when it was in the throes of the global financial crisis. Unemployment at a two-decade low may bolster growth this year by supporting consumer spending.
Domestic Demand
Domestic demand was the main contributor to GDP growth last year, adding 2.1 percentage points, today’s report showed. Private consumption increased 1.5 percent in the year, while government spending rose 1.2 percent. Investment in plant and machinery gained 8.3 percent.
The euro rose after the 2011 GDP report before giving up its gains to trade at $1.2755 at 11:50 a.m. in Frankfurt. European stocks fluctuated, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained less than 0.1 percent.
The weaker global economy and waning demand from debt- stricken euro-area neighbors have eroded German foreign sales, the main pillar of its economic expansion. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage point to growth last year, with exports up 8.2 percent and imports gaining 7.2 percent. In 2010, exports increased 13.7 percent.
“All in all, the German economy has remained relatively resilient,” said Annalisa Piazza, an economist at Newedge Group in London. “Signs of moderation have recently emerged but we expect the German economy to remain afloat in the coming quarters, maintaining its role as the major engine of growth for the euro area.”
2012 Forecast
German growth will slow to 0.6 percent this year before recovering to 1.8 percent in 2013, the Bundesbank predicted on Dec. 19. The European Central Bank, which has cut interest rates to a record low and flooded the banking system with cash during the debt crisis, last month reduced its 2012 growth forecast for the 17-nation euro region to just 0.3 percent.
Spanish industrial production fell the most in two years in November reflecting a contraction in the euro area’s fourth- largest economy as the government prepares to implement a new wave of austerity. Output at factories, refineries and mines adjusted for the number of working days declined 7 percent from a year earlier, the most since October 2009, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today.
In the U.K., the goods-trade deficit widened more than economists forecast in November as exports dropped, the Office for National Statistics said. The trade gap widened to 8.64 billion pounds ($13.6 billion) from 7.87 billion pounds in October. Exports fell 1.5 percent on the month while imports rose 1.1 percent.
Beige Book
The effects of Europe’s debt crisis may cost the U.S. as much as half a percentage point in economic growth this year, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said at an event in Frankfurt today.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey later today, and the Mortgage Bankers Association will give data on mortgage applications for the week ended Jan. 6.
“The debt crisis is unprecedented and economic forecasts in this environment are very difficult,” said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, who expects the German economy to contract “a little” in the first three months of this year. “For 2012 as a whole, we expect stagnation,” he said.
There are signs Germany’s economic downturn will be shallow. Business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month in December and service industries expanded.
The statistics office said today it may revise its fourth- quarter GDP assessment by the time official data are published on Feb. 15.
“Minus 0.25 percent is a too-pessimistic call both on the basis of hard and soft data,” said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit in Munich. “Our bottom line: Don’t worry too much about 2012, and let’s be grateful about last year.”
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 11:02 am
Lacker del Fed de Richmond esta preocupado por la independencia del Fed por la intromision en la politica fiscal. En toda mi carrera no he visto tanta amenaza a la independencia del Fes como ahora, me pone nervioso este ciclo electora, dijo. Cuando el Fed entra a discutir asuntos de politica fiscal, entra a la politica, dijo Lacker.
Bernanke ha sido criticado por interferir en la politica fiscal.
Lacker ‘Nervous’ About Fed’s Independence With Forays Into Fiscal Policy
By Joshua Zumbrun - Jan 11, 2012 8:55 AM ET ..
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker. Photographer: Jay Paul/Bloomberg
.Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he is concerned how the central bank will be treated in the 2012 elections.
“I haven’t seen as much threat to our independence in my career here as we’ve been seeing in the last couple of years,” Lacker said today in an interview on CNBC. “I’m a little nervous about how the Fed’s going to be treated in this electoral cycle.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the central bank were criticized by Republicans this week for a housing study sent to Congress that, in the words of Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, “intrudes too far into fiscal policy advice and advocacy.”
Hatch, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, was joined in his criticisms by Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, who said New York Fed President William C. Dudley’s suggestion last week that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reduce the principal of the loans they guarantee was “absolutely egregious.”
When asked about the Fed’s housing paper, Lacker said that “we have to be really careful because of our special independence.”
“When the central bank strays into fiscal policy it gets itself entangled in politics,” he said.
The flareup over the housing paper comes amid a Republican presidential primary in which almost all candidates have called for an end to Bernanke’s tenure at the central bank.
Paul, Perry
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Congressman Ron Paul of Texas all indicated they’d appoint a new Fed leader if they won the presidency in 2012. Bernanke’s term as Fed chief ends in January of 2014.
Lacker said he didn’t expect the election to result in the end of the central bank, as Paul has proposed.
“I think cooler heads will prevail before we get a bill to abolish the Fed,” Lacker said.
The economy will probably grow around 2 percent to 2.5 percent in 2012, and the inflation rate will be around 2 percent, Lacker said.
“Some of the more persistent headwinds the economy is facing are more serious than we thought,” Lacker said. “I think we’ll make more progress on unemployment, but it’s likely to be slow.”
Lacker, 56, votes on monetary policy in 2012 as part of the rotation among Fed bank presidents. He is a former head of research at the Richmond Fed and became president of the bank in August 2004.
Bernanke ha sido criticado por interferir en la politica fiscal.
Lacker ‘Nervous’ About Fed’s Independence With Forays Into Fiscal Policy
By Joshua Zumbrun - Jan 11, 2012 8:55 AM ET ..
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker. Photographer: Jay Paul/Bloomberg
.Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he is concerned how the central bank will be treated in the 2012 elections.
“I haven’t seen as much threat to our independence in my career here as we’ve been seeing in the last couple of years,” Lacker said today in an interview on CNBC. “I’m a little nervous about how the Fed’s going to be treated in this electoral cycle.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the central bank were criticized by Republicans this week for a housing study sent to Congress that, in the words of Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, “intrudes too far into fiscal policy advice and advocacy.”
Hatch, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, was joined in his criticisms by Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, who said New York Fed President William C. Dudley’s suggestion last week that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reduce the principal of the loans they guarantee was “absolutely egregious.”
When asked about the Fed’s housing paper, Lacker said that “we have to be really careful because of our special independence.”
“When the central bank strays into fiscal policy it gets itself entangled in politics,” he said.
The flareup over the housing paper comes amid a Republican presidential primary in which almost all candidates have called for an end to Bernanke’s tenure at the central bank.
Paul, Perry
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Congressman Ron Paul of Texas all indicated they’d appoint a new Fed leader if they won the presidency in 2012. Bernanke’s term as Fed chief ends in January of 2014.
Lacker said he didn’t expect the election to result in the end of the central bank, as Paul has proposed.
“I think cooler heads will prevail before we get a bill to abolish the Fed,” Lacker said.
The economy will probably grow around 2 percent to 2.5 percent in 2012, and the inflation rate will be around 2 percent, Lacker said.
“Some of the more persistent headwinds the economy is facing are more serious than we thought,” Lacker said. “I think we’ll make more progress on unemployment, but it’s likely to be slow.”
Lacker, 56, votes on monetary policy in 2012 as part of the rotation among Fed bank presidents. He is a former head of research at the Richmond Fed and became president of the bank in August 2004.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 11:07 am
Lacker crecera entre 2% y 2.5% este anio.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 11:08 am
Tensión con Irán podría pesar sobre precios del crudo: Goldman
miércoles 11 de nero de 2012 11:45 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LONDRES (Reuters) - Las tensiones en torno al programa nuclear de Irán y una nueva ola de sanciones contra el país podrían pesar sobre los precios del petróleo, mientras que las señales de mejoras en las economías de Estados Unidos y China han llevado a alzas recientes, dijo Goldman Sachs el miércoles.
Los futuros del crudo Brent subieron 4,75 dólares por barril en el primer día de operaciones del 2012 y rondaban los 113 dólares por barril el miércoles, comparado con un punto bajo intradiario de 102 dólares en diciembre.
"La confianza en que el impacto de la crisis de deuda de Europa está confinado a Europa está aumentando," dijeron los analistas de Goldman Sachs David Greely y Stefan Wieleren, en una nota de investigación.
"La reciente medida agresiva de financiamiento bancario del BCE (Banco Central Europeo) sugiere que está y continuará haciendo lo posible para prevenir un desmoronamiento abrupto del sistema financiero y bancario europeo," agregaron.
"Además, hay señales alentadoras de que Estados Unidos y China se están mostrando resistentes a los problemas en Europa, con datos económicos que continúan sorprendiendo en forma optimista", añadieron.
Los analistas dijeron que la tensión que rodea a Irán, por otro lado, podría pesar sobre los precios del petróleo.
"Dado que los productores y refinerías de petróleo han reaccionado a las nuevas sanciones estadounidenses contra Irán y se han preparado para la probable implementación de un embargo de la Unión Europea al crudo iraní, es probable que la escalada de tensiones entre Irán y Occidente haya estado ejerciendo una influencia negativa a corto plazo en los precios del crudo," dijo el banco.
"Sorprendentemente, hay poca evidencia de que se está sumando alguna 'prima Irán' a los precios actuales del crudo", agregó.
Goldman Sachs, que ha sido uno de los bancos más optimistas sobre los precios del crudo, señaló que los valores podrían verse apuntalados una vez que el embargo de la UE sobre el crudo iraní tome efecto.
"Esperaríamos que las refinerías europeas reemplacen al crudo iraní con barriles saudíes, liberando el excedente actual, mientras que China absorbería el excedente de crudo iraní, en parte para llenar sus reservas estratégicas," dijeron los analistas.
"Sin embargo, la capacidad ociosa de la OPEP es bastante baja, lo que deja muy vulnerable al mercado a nuevas pérdidas en el suministro, con el potencial de más perdidas particularmente en Irán y Nigeria", añadieron.
(Reporte de Ikuko Kurahone, Editado por Juan Lagorio)
© Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved.
miércoles 11 de nero de 2012 11:45 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LONDRES (Reuters) - Las tensiones en torno al programa nuclear de Irán y una nueva ola de sanciones contra el país podrían pesar sobre los precios del petróleo, mientras que las señales de mejoras en las economías de Estados Unidos y China han llevado a alzas recientes, dijo Goldman Sachs el miércoles.
Los futuros del crudo Brent subieron 4,75 dólares por barril en el primer día de operaciones del 2012 y rondaban los 113 dólares por barril el miércoles, comparado con un punto bajo intradiario de 102 dólares en diciembre.
"La confianza en que el impacto de la crisis de deuda de Europa está confinado a Europa está aumentando," dijeron los analistas de Goldman Sachs David Greely y Stefan Wieleren, en una nota de investigación.
"La reciente medida agresiva de financiamiento bancario del BCE (Banco Central Europeo) sugiere que está y continuará haciendo lo posible para prevenir un desmoronamiento abrupto del sistema financiero y bancario europeo," agregaron.
"Además, hay señales alentadoras de que Estados Unidos y China se están mostrando resistentes a los problemas en Europa, con datos económicos que continúan sorprendiendo en forma optimista", añadieron.
Los analistas dijeron que la tensión que rodea a Irán, por otro lado, podría pesar sobre los precios del petróleo.
"Dado que los productores y refinerías de petróleo han reaccionado a las nuevas sanciones estadounidenses contra Irán y se han preparado para la probable implementación de un embargo de la Unión Europea al crudo iraní, es probable que la escalada de tensiones entre Irán y Occidente haya estado ejerciendo una influencia negativa a corto plazo en los precios del crudo," dijo el banco.
"Sorprendentemente, hay poca evidencia de que se está sumando alguna 'prima Irán' a los precios actuales del crudo", agregó.
Goldman Sachs, que ha sido uno de los bancos más optimistas sobre los precios del crudo, señaló que los valores podrían verse apuntalados una vez que el embargo de la UE sobre el crudo iraní tome efecto.
"Esperaríamos que las refinerías europeas reemplacen al crudo iraní con barriles saudíes, liberando el excedente actual, mientras que China absorbería el excedente de crudo iraní, en parte para llenar sus reservas estratégicas," dijeron los analistas.
"Sin embargo, la capacidad ociosa de la OPEP es bastante baja, lo que deja muy vulnerable al mercado a nuevas pérdidas en el suministro, con el potencial de más perdidas particularmente en Irán y Nigeria", añadieron.
(Reporte de Ikuko Kurahone, Editado por Juan Lagorio)
© Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 11:08 am
Lacker: Europa no representa un riesgo muy grande para US, si Europa entra en una recesion moderada, US puede salir adelante.
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Re: Miercoles 11/01/12 Beige book
por admin » Mié Ene 11, 2012 11:31 am
-57.82
Francia -0.43%
Alemania -0.36%
Francia -0.43%
Alemania -0.36%
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