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MIDDLE EAST NEWS
JANUARY 31, 2012, 2:56 P.M. ET.Spy Chief Sees a Growing Iranian Threat to U.S.
By SIOBHAN GORMAN
WASHINGTON—Iran's leaders have "changed their calculus" and now appear willing to conduct an attack within the U.S., spy chief James Clapper said, pointing to last year's alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington.
In an annual assessment of global threats, Mr. Clapper, the director of national intelligence, also said that al Qaeda is in "decline," but that the next three years will be a critical transition phase for the group and its offshoots.
Unrest from the Arab Spring uprisings potentially provides jihadists more freedom to operate, according to Mr. Clapper's assessment provided to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testifies before a Senate committee hearing in Washington on Tuesday.
.In a hearing Tuesday with Mr. Clapper on threats to the U.S., senators zeroed in on the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran amid the rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, and growing concern that Israel may launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
"I think 2012 will be a critical year for convincing or preventing Iran's development of a nuclear weapon," said committee chairman Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat.
Iran denies it is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and rejected accusations that it was behind a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador.
An assessment provided by Mr. Clapper concluded that some Iranian officials, probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States as a response to real or perceived actions that threaten the regime."
Intelligence officials are also concerned about Iranian plotting overseas against the U.S. or allied interests.
Future decisions by Iran about sponsoring attacks in the U.S. will be shaped by the regime's cost-benefit assessment of the aftermath of the Saudi assassination plot and its perception of the U.S. threat to the Iranian government, Mr. Clapper's assessment concluded.
Mr. Clapper warned in testimony that "there is more to unfold here" when he was asked about Iranian activities in the West. "They're trying as well to penetrate and engage in this hemisphere," he said, without elaborating.
The U.S. and European Union have ramped up sanctions to press Iran to return to negotiations on its nuclear program. On Tuesday, Canada said it, too was adding new sanctions.
Pressed about the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran, intelligence officials said they've had little impact on Iran's nuclear program to date.
"To this point, the sanctions as imposed so far have not caused them to change their behavior or their policy," Mr. Clapper said. "As pressure ratchets up, there is the prospect that could change."
Iran this week is hosting a delegation of inspectors from the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy agency.
Mr. Clapper also said he expects Iran's top regional ally, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, to be toppled, though he said Mr. Assad could hold out for some time.