por admin » Mié Feb 08, 2012 2:38 pm
El Fed dijo que los americanos a finales del 2011 se prestaron mas dinero
Se endeudaron en prestamos de autos, tarjetas de creditos, estudios, hipotecas, etc. Las deudas aumentaron en 9.3% (anualizado).
ECONOMYFEBRUARY 8, 2012
Auto and Student Loans Drive Borrowing Surge
By JOSH MITCHELL
In another sign that the credit freeze is thawing, the Federal Reserve said Americans ramped up their borrowing at the end of 2011.
Household borrowing through credit cards, car loans, student loans and other installment debt—which excludes mortgages—rose at a seasonally adjusted 9.3% annual rate in December, following a 9.9% rise in November, the Fed said Tuesday. That was the biggest two-month surge since late 2001, when auto makers rolled out zero-percent financing after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The most recent gains largely reflect more student loans, which at least one economist said could be a sign of financial strain. But auto loans and, to a lesser extent, credit-card use also rose. That marks a rebound in consumers' ability and willingness to borrow, which fell sharply after the 2008 crisisamid tighter credit, heavy household debt and rising unemployment.
Heather Davidson of Collegeville, Pa., is among the Americans who are borrowing again after years of paying down debt. The 36-year-old and her husband spent several years paying off student loans and staying out of credit-card debt, earning a sterling credit score. Early last year, the couple starting talking about replacing their 2003 Ford Expedition. But they held off in part due to anxiety about the economy.
In December, the couple got a loan to buy a $57,000 2012 Nissan Motor Co.Armada, taking on a $650 monthly payment for the next six years.
Ms. Davidson said ultra-low interest rates and the recent economic strengthening of the economy influenced their decision. "We had looked at our budget, and it was something we knew we were comfortable affording," she said. "We could have afforded it the year before, we just chose to wait a little."
The late 2011 borrowing surge occurred outside the mortgage sector, a key channel for household debt and one which remains under stress. Still, many consumers have cut their debt in recent years and are now on sounder financial footing.
One reason for caution about the latest report: Some economists have argued recently that seasonal adjustments in government statistics have overstated the economy's strength at the end of 2011, though it is hard to know whether this is a big factor.
Recent data show that consumer confidence has improved as the economy has strengthened and the unemployment rate has dropped. Some banks say they are easing standards on consumer loans, allowing more people to qualify than before.For some households, however, the borrowing upturn also could signal financial stress. With incomes growing more slowly than spending, consumers might have had to dip into debt to cover necessities and year-end holiday purchases.
Economists warn it is too soon to know if increased borrowing will continue, but say it would fuel more consumer spending, which could help the recovery gain traction. The data "suggest we're getting the normal dynamics of a recovery in place," said Barclays Capital economist Troy Davig. "I think it's key in terms of consumer spending…It does suggest consumers are again willing to step out and buy larger-ticket items."
Already, the surge in car loans has boosted auto sales, which helped drive the economy's 2.8% annual growth rate in the final three months of 2011.
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggest a geographical divide in borrowing: Americans in areas hit hardest by the housing bust, such as Nevada, still aren't taking on new debt; those in other areas of the country are. Many in the first group are still paying down mortgages, or are in foreclosure, or are unemployed, and won't be free to borrow again for several more years.
"Whatever revival we've seen in household borrowing has been unevenly distributed across the country," said Andrew Haughwout, a vice president and economist at the New York Fed. For example, he said, nationally, total debt per capita was roughly flat in the 12-month period that ended in September. But total debt fell in states hit hardest by home-price declines, such as Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. "Also, those states showed bigger declines in credit card debt and smaller increases in auto loan debt than other states over that period," Mr. Haughwout said.
Mr. Davig said the latest data offer a glimmer of hope that the long process of household debt-reduction, called deleveraging, is in a late stage. That process has slowed the recovery as Americans worked to pay down debts rather than spend money on goods and services. "That's starting to come to an end," he said.
To be sure, household debt-reduction isn't over. The McKinsey Global Institute reported last month that American households have wiped out $584 billion in debt since the end of 2008, mainly through defaults, but also through payments. Still, some $254 billion worth of mortgages is headed toward foreclosure, and household deleveraging likely won't be complete until mid-2013, the report states.
Jack Hartings, president of the People's Bank Co. in Coldwater, Ohio, said there has been a slight increase in loans the bank issued over the past year. The rise isn't due to more lenient lending standards, he said, but rather an increase in people who qualify and are willing to take on new debt. "I think a year ago they were just unsure of what the economy was going to do and sitting on the sidelines," Mr. Hartings said.