Analysts say zinc-miner Trevali in Glencore's sights TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Giant trading and mining company Glencore has struck a deal to buy a 7.8% stake in Canada’s Trevali, which owns a zinc mine in New Brunswick, for $18-million, sparking speculation that it might be eyeing the entire company.
Bigger companies snapping up smaller producers in a string of deals in recent months means that Trevali cuts a lonely figure as a TSX-listed pureplay, and it could be only a matter of time before it too finds itself in a takeover, Raymond James analyst Adam Low commented.
"As a junior zinc producer, you don’t last – you get acquired," he said in a telephone interview.
Last year, the world's biggest zinc producer, Nyrstar, bought out both Breakwater Resources and Farallon Mining for their zinc assets. Glencore, the second-biggest producer, has also been buying mines in Namibia and Zambia.
Trevali CEO Mark Cruise said on Thursday the investment was a “ringing endorsement” of the company’s Halfmile mine, which started producing late last year, and its Santander project in Peru, which it would use the proceeds to fund.
Glencore’s Chris Eskdale will also join the board of TSX-listed Trevali, which started producing zinc at Halfmile at the end of last year, and aims to start output at Santander around the middle of the year.
The commodities trader, which earlier this year made a bid to merge with Xstrata to create a competitor to the world’s biggest mining firm, BHP Billiton, also owns a $2-million convertible debt facility in Trevali.
If the facility, which is convertible in September, were exchanged for shares today, Glencore would own 8.8%.
If Glencore converted the debt and exercised warrants it would own around 12.5% of Trevali, together with Xstrata, which holds around 4.5% of the company.
Versant Partners analyst Rob Chang pointed out that Glencore was bullish on zinc, recently agreeing to smelt concentrate for no charge in return for greater exposure to price movements. He also raised the possibility of the LSE-listed company making a go for Trevali.
Speaking in a telephone interview, Cruise said Trevali already had a "really good relationship" with Glencore at the operation level.
Under a 2010 partnership agreement, Glencore would design, build and operate the mill and mine at Santander on a contractor/toll basis and buy the plant’s concentrate at benchmark terms. Trevali would then acquire the plant and associated infrastructure over a four-year period following commercial concentrate production.
Cruise said that Trevali would be a "natural fit" for Glencore to own, but added that he was not expecting any bid until both projects had been derisked by being brought into full production. That means not much will likely happen on the corporate activity front until the end of the year or early 2013.
He commented that Trevali was not up for sale, but added that "if someone rings the doorbell you’ve got to answer the door".
If a bid were to arise, "I suspect it would be friendly", and Glencore's position in the company did not preclude another potential buyer taking a look, Cruise suggested to Mining Weekly Online.
"We're on everyones' radar."
A Glencore spokesperson declined to comment on speculation the company might want to buy Trevali.
Zinc, used to galvanise steel, is currently in a surplus, but there is a growing expectation that there will be a shortage in coming years as large mines reach the end of their lives, and not enough new ones are brought into production to replace them.
Cruise said "there is no doubt" the zinc market is heading for a deficit.
"From where I stand, it looks like it will be starting to kick in towards the end of 2013," he commented.
Vancouver-based Trevali late last year reached an agreement with Xstrata to toll treat ore from its Halfmile zinc mine at the diversified major’s nearby Brunswick 12 mill. Xstrata will also buy the metals in concentrate.
The company has a goal to reach yearly production of 400-million pounds of zinc equivalent by 2015.
Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter