Lunes 09/04/12 Beige book del Fed

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[goodprofit1]

disculpen muchachos, pero que es la operaciòn twist? muchas gracias por la respuesta.

[Arnold]

De regreso al foro.........

RESUMEN ECONÓMICO

Un derrumbe en la mina Cabeza de Negro, ubicada a 1,347 metros de altitud en Ica, a 282 km al sur de Lima, dejó a nueve trabajadores bajo tierra desde el jueves. Ellos se encuentran en un socavón de la mina a la espera de un rescate que, según el primer ministro Óscar Valdés, llegará en un par de días. (El Comercio)

Las reservas internacionales netas (RIN) se situaron en US$55,789 millones al 30 de marzo, un incremento de US$2,474 millones respecto a lo registrado al cierre de febrero último. Igualmente, las RIN aumentaron en US$ 6,973 millones al cierre del primer trimestre respecto al resultado al término del 2011, informó el BCR. (Andina)

Los países emergentes, incluido el Perú, seguirán teniendo protagonismo en el globo y cada vez ganarán una mayor participación en los niveles de producción mundial, pues el Perú demostró los beneficios de tener políticas fiscales y monetaria bastante creíbles y sólidas, señaló el banco de inversión Barclays Bank. (Andina)

La inversión privada comprometida en concesiones de infraestructura es de US$6,816 millones al cierre del 2011, lo cual representa un aumento de 300% respecto a los compromisos al cierre del 2006, informó Ositran. (Andina)

La BVL mantuvo su tendencia alcista tras subir 0.04% en la semana que pasó, acumulando un alza de 21.31% en lo que va del año, ante datos favorables en Estados Unidos, señaló Juan Magot y Asociados Sociedad Agente de Bolsa (SAB). (Andina)

El comercio de la Comunidad Andina (CAN) aumentó 18% en el 2011 respecto al 2010, al sumar la cifra récord de US$9,187 millones. El Perú mejoró de US$1,984 millones a US$2,275 millones informó el bloque subregional. (Andina)

El TLC entre el Perú y Panamá entrará en ejecución a partir del primero de mayo, lo que favorecerá el intercambio comercial entre ambos países. El 99% de partidas que se comercian con Panamá entrarán con arancel cero de inmediato o en un período menor a cinco años, informó el Mincetur. (Andina)

La Presidencia del Consejo de Ministros (PCM) declaró desierto el concurso público para la selección de postulantes a los cargos de presidentes de los consejos directivos de los organismos supervisores: Ositran y de Osiptel. (Andina)

RESUMEN POLÍTICO

La vicepresidenta Marisol Espinoza afirmó que la eliminación progresiva del régimen especial de CAS reivindica a los trabajadores y acabará con años de distorsión e informalidad laboral en el sector público. La norma otorgará derechos como aguinaldos, vacaciones de 30 días, licencia, derecho de sindicalización, entre otros, a trabajadores que antes no los tenían. (Andina)

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10:54 a.m. EDT 04/09/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   -0/32 0.326
10-Year Note   8/32 2.032
* at close
10:59 a.m. EDT 04/09/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 101.47 -1.84 103.31
Gold 1645.6 15.5 1630.1
E-mini Dow 12869 -109 12978
E-mini S&P 500 1377.25 -13.00 1390.25
11:09 a.m. EDT 04/09/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.38 81.63
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3064 1.3096
† Late Friday in New York.

[admin]

11:08 a.m. EDT 04/09/12Major Stock Indexes
  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 12921.23 -138.91 -1.06
Nasdaq 3048.75 -31.75 -1.03
S&P 500 1381.19 -16.89 -1.21
DJ Total Stock Market 14447.41 -187.39 -1.28
Russell 2000 804.48 -13.70 -1.67
Global Dow 1937.09 -13.52 -0.69
Japan: Nikkei Average* 9546.26 -142.19 -1.47

[admin]

Mercados a la baja

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

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[El_Diez]

Me parece que los indices aun tienen apoyo para seguir subiendo un poco mas (S&P 1440-1450??)... el QE3 por ahora no es necesario, en este trimestre debe finalizar la Op twist (no es asi?), asi que luego deberia venir una correccion y en ese punto deberia nuevamente actuar el FED.

El día miércoles de la semana pasada escribiente esto y tu proyección para el SP 500 era 1440 - 1450 puntos
¿ ?

[admin]

12:13 p.m. EDT 04/09/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   0/32 0.318
10-Year Note   10/32 2.026
* at close
12:19 p.m. EDT 04/09/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 101.38 -1.93 103.31
Gold 1644.4 14.3 1630.1
E-mini Dow 12872 -106 12978
E-mini S&P 500 1377.50 -12.75 1390.25
12:29 p.m. EDT 04/09/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.39 81.63
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3102 1.3096
† Late Friday in New York.

[admin]

Los commodities redujeron sus apuestas en los commodities.

Hedge Funds Cut Commodity Bets on Fed’s Stimulus Signals
By Debarati Roy
April 09, 2012 12:10 PM EDT
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Hedge funds reduced bullish bets on commodities for a second consecutive week as the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus, increasing concern that growth will slow and curb demand for raw materials.
Money managers lowered net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 2.8 percent to 1.1 million contracts in the week ended April 3, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Bets on higher corn prices fell to the lowest since February, while those on hogs dropped by the most since May. Speculators cut wagers on costlier crude oil for a third week, and are now the least bullish in two months.


QE3 Concerns Halt Hedge Fund Commodity Bulls
(2:24) 3 hours ago
Minutes from the March 13 Fed policy meeting released April 3 showed policy makers will probably hold off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose more than 80 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank set rates at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing. The U.S. economy will accelerate this quarter and the next, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The market is addicted to stimulus,” said Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management who helps oversee $1 billion of assets. “This market has risen because of the liquidity push and the market will decline when it’s deprived of liquidity.”
Steepest Decline
The S&P GSCI index rose less than 0.1 percent last week after tumbling 2 percent the day after the Fed minutes were released, the steepest decline since mid-December. Cocoa, cotton, wheat and gold led the declines as corn, nickel and soybean futures advanced. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities slid 1.6 percent, and Treasures returned 0.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s commodity research team, led by Jeffrey Currie in London, cut its three-month recommendation on raw materials to “neutral” on March 28, warning that the economy will “soften” this quarter. The S&P GSCI has retreated 2.3 percent since then and fell as much as 1.5 percent today.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s team, led by Francisco Blanch in New York, retained an “overweight” recommendation April 2, citing the risk that conflict over Iran’s nuclear program will drive energy prices higher. Central banks are extending the provision of liquidity and cutting interest rates to shore up growth, the team wrote in a report to clients.
Emergency Stimulus
The Fed has pledged to keep interest rates near zero through 2014, and the European Central Bank kept its key rate at a record low of 1 percent on April 4. ECB President Mario Draghi quashed talk of an early exit from emergency stimulus measures the same day. The ECB has expanded its balance sheet by about 30 percent since November, pumping more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) into the banking system.
“As long as there is loose monetary policy and the world shows net growth, commodity prices will remain firm,” said Michael Cuggino, who helps manage about $15 billion of assets at Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) Funds in San Francisco. “The demand for commodities is unlikely to weaken.”
The U.S. added 120,000 jobs in March, the smallest increase in five months and less than the most pessimistic estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, a Labor Department report showed April 6. The economy will expand 2.2 percent this quarter and 2.5 percent in the next, compared with 2 percent in the first three months of the year, according to the median of 74 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Open Market
The jobs data may help build a case for further easing at the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, said John Silvia, the chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. U.S. commodity markets were shut on the day of the report for the Good Friday holiday.
Bets on a copper rally rose 25 percent to 18,642 contracts in the week ended April 3, the highest since early August, the CFTC data show. Inventories of the metal monitored by the London Metal Exchange tumbled 29 percent this year. Demand will exceed supply by 13,000 metric tons this year, and the deficit will widen to 17,000 tons in 2013, analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Hussein Allidina in New York said in a report April 2.
Investors put $79 million into commodity funds in the week ended April 4, the same amount as a week earlier, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows. Open interest, or contracts outstanding, across the 24 commodities in the S&P GSCI advanced 1.9 percent, advancing for a second consecutive week and taking this year’s expansion to 19 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Arabica Coffee
Bullish soybean wagers rose 12 percent to 235,387 contracts, the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in June 2006. A U.S. Department of Agriculture report may show this week South American crops will be smaller than forecast after drought, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Soybeans jumped 2.2 percent to $14.34 a bushel last week as arabica coffee added 0.3 percent to $1.83 a pound.
Copper fell 1 percent last week on the LME, paring this year’s advance to 10 percent. Growth in China, the world’s biggest metals consumer, will slow to 8.3 percent this year, from 9.2 percent in 2011, according to the median of 11 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Premier Wen Jiabao cut the nation’s growth target to 7.5 percent last month, the lowest since 2004.
Extra Policy Easing
A purchasing managers’ index for the Chinese services industry dropped to 53.3 last month, from 53.9 in February. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The country needs extra policy easing to spur growth and the rest of Asia “urgently” needs the nation’s economy to turn, Frederic Neumann, an analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said in a report April 3.
“China is in a very precarious state and it could easily turn into a hard landing,” said Stanley Crouch, who helps oversee $2 billion of assets as chief investment officer at New York-based Aegis Capital Corp. “If you look at all the interventions the Fed and ECB have undertaken they have not great results to show. We are going to probably have a big correction because of China’s hard landing.”

[admin]

South Korea dice que N. Korea esta lista para hacer otra prueba nuclear .

[El_Diez]

El precio de los futuros del cobre ahora si cayó por debajo de la EMA 200,
El gráfico muestra los niveles de fibonacci

Cobre.JPG (52.34 KiB) Visto 2106 veces