Jueves 12/04/12 PPI, Comercio Internacional

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Yellen, la número 2 del Fed defiende fervientemente la política de intereses cerca a cero hasta el 2914 y dice que el Fed actuara si la economía empeora.

ECONOMY Updated April 11, 2012, 10:52 p.m. ET
Fed's No. 2 Strongly Backs Low-Rate Policy

By JON HILSENRATH

The Federal Reserve's No. 2 official made an emphatic case for sticking to the central bank's low-interest-rate policies and said the Fed might need to take additional action to bolster the economy if the recovery once again falters.


Dow Jones Newswires managing editor Neal Lipschutz takes a seat on Mean Street to discuss the risks associated with the Fed making long-term predictions about low federal funds rates. Photo: Reuters.

Despite encouraging news on job growth in recent months, "labor market slack will remain substantial for a number of years to come," Fed Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen argued in a speech in New York on Wednesday evening. That, and an expectation of subdued inflation, have justified the Fed's plan to keep short-term interest rates near zero until late 2014, Ms. Yellen said in an elaborate defense of the Fed's approach. Some of the Fed's internal economic models, in fact, suggested rates should stay low for even longer than planned, she noted.

"Further easing actions could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower-than-expected pace," she added, though she took a balanced approach to the question of even easier-money policies by noting that a faster-than-expected recovery could warrant credit tightening sooner than expected.

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Bloomberg News
I see no need for still more accommodation at this time,' said Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis Fed president.

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Reuters
'It is way too early to conclude that the economy is sputtering,' said Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed president.


Bloomberg News
'Further easing actions could be warranted' if the recovery's pace is slower than expected, said Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Vice Chair.


Associated Press
'I am beginning to hear that there are concerns…about cost-push pressures,' said Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed president.

Her remarks are important because the No. 2 at the Fed almost never veers from the stance of the chairman. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week made his own argument for keeping rates low to combat high unemployment.

The flurry of recent commentary offers clues ahead of the central bank's next policy meeting, April 24 and 25, when the Fed will update forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. The Fed's near-term unemployment estimates for 2012 have likely improved, but officials have sounded unconvinced that the longer-term unemployment outlook has changed much.

Against that backdrop, officials seem unlikely to want to veer from the low-rates-to-2014 forecast that the central bank has been making since January. At the same time, it appears unlikely that the Fed is anywhere near being prepared to launch additional easing efforts.

Financial markets have see-sawed in recent weeks as investors have tried to discern whether the Fed wants to launch a new bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing. Ms. Yellen laid out one scenario in which she believed such a program might be warranted—if the unemployment rate, which was 8.2% in March, seems unlikely to drop below 8% by 2014. But the Fed isn't forecasting that scenario, and Ms. Yellen clearly wasn't advocating more bond-buying now. She is known as one of the Fed's more dovish officials, meaning she tends to advocate aggressive policies to combat high unemployment.

The Fed's more hawkish wing—which tends to worry most about inflation and stands against easy-money policies—is firmly against more action and has sought to register that opposition in recent days. Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota said Tuesday he saw "no need for still more accommodation" by the Fed and warned the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates much sooner than the late 2014 date that the Fed has said is most likely.

But other Fed officials have lined up with Ms. Yellen's stance in recent days. Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, Wednesday emphasized the need for a steady policy in comments to reporters at a Fed conference in Stone Mountain, Ga. Like Ms. Yellen, he said he doesn't see a need for the Fed to alter its projection that it will keep short-term interest rates near zero until late 2014.

He also doesn't see any need right now for the Fed to amplify its easy-money policies by launching a new bond-buying program.

"At the moment, I am still not convinced another round of (bond buying), at least in this time frame, would achieve a great deal," Mr. Lockhart said, adding that it was a policy to "hold in reserve" in case the economy takes a bad turn.

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8:06 a.m. EDT 04/12/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   0/32 0.294
10-Year Note   -2/32 2.049
* at close
8:12 a.m. EDT 04/12/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 103.12 0.42 102.70
Gold 1653.4 -6.9 1660.3
E-mini Dow 12793 49 12744
E-mini S&P 500 1370.25 6.25 1364.00
8:22 a.m. EDT 04/12/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.03 80.87
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3157 1.3109
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

El déficit baja a $46.03

El PPI sin cambio, core sube 0.3%

Los seguros de desempleo suben 13,000 malas noticias.

Francia -0.20%

Los futures bajan +0.27%

Au down 1,657

Euro up 1.3154

Oil down 102.67

Alemania +0.08%

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Libor igual 0.47%

Ag 31.59, futures cu down 3.67

Yen down 80.95

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Au down 1,656

[admin]

El 4 weekend moving average de Los seguros de se empleo suben 4,250.

[admin]

Los seguros de desempleo confirman las cifras del empleo. Desilusionan.

[admin]

Ag down 31.51

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+21

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Yields down 2.02%

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+17

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Europa en rojo

Yields 2.02%

Euro up 1.3145

+16

Oil up 102.80

Francia -0.55%

Alemania -0.03%

Au down 1,654.40

[admin]

Los Americanos importaron menos petroleo en 15 anios y la demanda de productos Chinos tambien bajo. Malas noticias para el mundo US esta importando menos.

Las compras de productos importados en US bajaron 2.7%, es la caida mas grande desde Febrero de 2009.

La diferencia entre las importaciones y las exportaciones bajaron 12%, el deficit fue de $46 billones, el mas pequenio desde Octubre. Se esperaba un deficit de $51.8 billones.

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Trade Gap in U.S. Narrows More Than Forecast as Imports Drop
By Timothy R. Homan - Apr 12, 2012 8:56 AM ET

The trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed more than forecast in February as imports fell by the most in three years, reflecting the smallest amount of crude oil purchases in 15 years and a drop-off in demand for Chinese goods.

The gap shrank 12 percent to $46 billion, the smallest since October, from a revised $52.5 billion in January, the Commerce Department in Washington said today. The median estimate of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a deficit of $51.8 billion in February. Purchases of foreign goods decreased by 2.7 percent, the biggest decline since February 2009. Exports barely rose to reach a record.


The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday may have contributed to the slump in imports, indicating demand will probably rebound as a strengthening U.S. labor market bolsters consumer spending. At the same time, sales overseas by American companies may moderate as parts of Europe stagnate and China slows, a sign international commerce will be less of a source of strength for the world’s largest economy.

“As domestic demand begins to gain some momentum you should start to see imports pick up,” said Kevin Cummins, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “It appears that the drop in imports was reflective of the Chinese New Year. We’ve assumed slower export growth based on global growth slowing in 2012.” At the same time, he said, “it doesn’t appear that exports are likely to be a significant drag on the U.S. economy.”

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week and producer prices were little changed in March, figures from the Labor Department as showed today. Jobless claims increased 13,000 in the week ended April 7 to 380,000, the highest since Jan. 28.

Stock Futures
Stock-index futures trimmed earlier gains as investors were disappointed by the jump in jobless claims. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in June rose 0.1 percent to 1,365.5 at 8:55 a.m. in New York, after having been up as much as 0.6 percent.

The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey called for the trade deficit to narrow from a previously estimated $52.6 billion in January. Projections ranged from $46.5 billion to $54.1 billion.

The value of imports in February declined to $227.2 billion, the fewest since November. In addition to petroleum, Americans also bought fewer consumer goods, like toys and clothing, and automobiles and parts from overseas.

Oil imports in February were valued at $23.4 billion, down from $28.1 billion the previous month. The number of barrels of imported crude dropped to 225.7 million last month, the fewest since February 1997.

Gap With China
The February trade gap with China narrowed to $19.4 billion, the smallest since March 2011, from $26 billion as imports plunged 18 percent, today’s report showed. The week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which extended into early February, may have limited demand from the Asian nation.

Total exports increased 0.1 percent to $181.2 billion, boosted by sales of capital equipment, like commercial aircraft and industrial machines to buyers overseas.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $44.1 billion, the smallest since April 2011.

The smaller-than-forecast gap may prompt some economists to boost forecasts for growth in the first quarter.

The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after growing at a 1.8 percent pace in the prior three months, Commerce Department figures showed on March 29. The trade gap subtracted 0.26 percentage point from GDP in the final three months of 2011, after adding 0.43 points in the prior quarter.

‘Challenging’ Environment
“Our business continues to be impacted by the challenging global economic environment,” Blake Jorgensen, chief financial officer of Levi Strauss & Co., said in an April 10 conference call with analysts. “All of Europe is in an economic doldrums in many ways. As you probably saw with China and India during the quarter, we’ve seen some slowing of the rapid growth there, and we’re seeing that show up as well in some of the consumer spending patterns of our consumer base in our stores.”

Revenue at Levi Strauss grew in the Americas and Asia Pacific region, while declining in Europe, he said.

The U.S. dollar has declined 1 percent this year through last week against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the country’s biggest trading partners. The decrease makes American goods less expensive to foreign buyers, helping to offset any slowdown in demand.

The U.S. economy picked up heading into 2012 as the euro area faces a potential recession and China restrains its economy to stem inflation.

Growth Slowdown
The Chinese economy grew 8.9 percent in the last three months of 2011 from the same period a year earlier, the slowest pace for 10 quarters. The government last month lowered this year’s economic growth target to 7.5 percent, after keeping the goal at 8 percent over the past seven years.

The 17-nation euro economy will shrink 0.3 percent this year, according to the European Commission, which projects contractions in Italy, Spain, Belgium, Greece, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Portugal and Slovenia. By contrast, Germany’s economy is forecast to expand 0.6 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story:

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Futures cu up 3.68

+15

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Expana forzara a sus ciudadanos a reportar sus cuentas en el extranjero.