Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansion

[admin]

De haber elecciones en Grecia el proximo mes, el partido de izquierda ganaria, ellos se oponen a las condiciones del rescate.

-97.44

[admin]

VIX up 21.47

[admin]

Futures cu down 3.5680

Euro down 1.2834

-92.18

[admin]

Ocho dias ed baja en 9 sesiones.

-95.28

[admin]

Oil down 94.07

-125.18

[admin]

Copper May 14,09:39
Bid/Ask 3.6006 - 3.6015
Change -0.0678 -1.85%
Low/High 3.5842 - 3.7088
Charts

Nickel May 14,09:39
Bid/Ask 7.6473 - 7.6550
Change -0.0860 -1.11%
Low/High 7.6350 - 7.8160
Charts

Aluminum May 14,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8939 - 0.8944
Change -0.0112 -1.24%
Low/High 0.8927 - 0.9181
Charts

Zinc May 14,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8678 - 0.8684
Change -0.0129 -1.46%
Low/High 0.8657 - 0.8851
Charts

Lead May 14,09:38
Bid/Ask 0.9163 - 0.9167
Change -0.0135 -1.45%
Low/High 0.9105 - 0.9412

[admin]

Argentina es la nacion mas enjuiciada del mundo.
Reysol esta buscando una compensacion de $10.5 billones de Argentina por la apropiacion de sus activos, y se convierte en una compania mas en la fila de companias que no han sido compensadas como Exxon, Unisys, etc.

Hay 26 casos pendientes contra ese pais.

Argentina as No Claims-Nation Revealed in Repsol Losses: Energy
By Nathan Crooks - May 13, 2012 7:03 PM ET

Repsol YPF SA (REP), the Spanish oil explorer seeking $10.5 billion from Argentina for seizing its assets, will line up behind companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Unisys Corp. yet to be repaid by the most-sued nation on earth.

There are 26 cases pending against Argentina, more than any other country, at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes in Washington, the principal arbitration court for claims against sovereign countries. So far, it has refused to pay any of the tribunal’s judgments, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists’ report.

Argentina as No Claims-Nation Revealed in Repsol Losses Angel Navarrete/Bloomberg
Repsol said after the April 16 expropriation of a 51 percent stake of its YPF unit that it’s seeking $10.5 billion in compensation.

Repsol said after the April 16 expropriation of a 51 percent stake of its YPF unit that it’s seeking $10.5 billion in compensation. Photographer: Angel Navarrete/Bloomberg
.The prospects of compensation are dim for Madrid-based Repsol, the worst-performing oil stock this year, because of Argentina’s resistance to pay existing judgments and because Repsol’s case will be behind those of hedge funds, utilities and energy companies already pursuing reimbursement for currency devaluations, nationalizations and rate freezes after Argentina’s $95 billion default a decade ago.

“You end up in a conga line of people holding unsatisfied claims, and that’s not a good place to be,” Michael Nolan, a partner in the Washington office of international law firm Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy, said in a phone interview.

Repsol said after the April 16 expropriation of a 51 percent stake of its YPF unit that it’s seeking $10.5 billion in compensation. The company is planning to file for arbitration and will defend its shareholders rights, spokesman Kristian Rix said in a telephone interview on May 10 without specifying where the company would pursue its claim for compensation.

Repsol shares fell to a three-year low in Madrid on April 23 after the newspaper La Nacion reported that Argentina would seek to pay Repsol nothing for its majority stake in YPF SA (YPFD), seized by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner last month.

Local Appraisal Ordered
Fernandez said on April 16 that compensation for the seizure will be determined by Argentina’s National Appraisal Tribunal, the government-chartered tribunal established in 1944 to help determine the value of contested goods involving companies or government agencies.

“It’s not just that they will try to not pay Repsol anything,” said Arturo Porzecanski, an international finance professor at American University in Washington. “Even if they agree to pay something or are required to pay something, the likely scenario is that they will drag it out for as long as possible with appeals and annulments and reviews.”

The South American nation fights arbitration judgments, concerned that any payment could increase its overall liability and expose it to damages worth hundreds of billions of dollars, Eric David Kasenetz wrote in the George Washington International Law Review in 2010.

“They don’t mind spending hundreds of millions of dollars on the best lawyers just to buy time,” Porzecanski said in a telephone interview.

Government Goal
Cases seen by the World Bank’s panel, known by its initials ICSID, can typically last four years or longer, said Abby Cohen Smutny, a partner with White & Case in Washington.

It is “safe to assume” that Repsol will be exploring its options under bilateral investment treaties to bring an arbitration case against Argentina that could be filed at the ICSID, Smutny said.

In an effort to enforce existing arbitration judgments, the U.S. in March suspended Argentina’s participation in a trade program that allows certain goods from developing countries to be imported duty-free. That was because of its refusal to pay $300 million of ICSID arbitration awards to U.S. firms Azurix Corp., a Houston-based wastewater service company, and Blue Ridge Investments LLC.

Active on the Hill
“They are really encountering problems in Washington now,” Carolyn Lamm, a partner with White & Case in Washington, said in a phone interview from Istanbul. “Many of the judgment creditors are very active on the Hill. I don’t think that they will ultimately escape payment obligations.”

Venezuela, which has the second-most number of cases before the ICSID after Argentina, requested to leave the arbitration court on Jan. 24 as demands pile up from abroad for compensation following a decade of nationalizations under President Hugo Chavez, who said on Jan. 8 that Venezuela would not accept any rulings from the court.

Chavez’s government has negotiated compensation for some nationalized assets with steelmaker Ternium SA (TX) and settled out of the ICSID with Mexican cement maker Cemex SAB for $600 million, about half of what the company was seeking in arbitration, for seizing its local unit in 2008.

“It’s much easier to deal with Chavez. He has actually paid fair compensation to those he expropriated and has honored all of his country’s debts,” said Porzecanski. “His attitude has been much more respectful of international treaties and even domestic law than that of the Kirchners,” he said, referring also to Fernandez’s deceased husband and former Argentine president, Nestor Kirchner.

Enforcement Mechanisms
ICSID awards are enforceable in all 158 countries that are signatories to the ICSID convention, said Lamm. Argentina faces current pending cases from companies including AES Corp. (AES), Total SA (FP) and EDF International SA, according to the ICSID. Since taking office in December 2007, Fernandez has taken over Aerolineas Argentinas SA and seized $24 billion in private pension funds.

“If Argentina loses most, or even a good portion, of the claims pending in the ICSID, Argentina likely will face damages amounting to tens, possibly hundreds, of billions of dollars,” Kasenetz wrote in the law review paper.

The ICSID’s ‘enforcement mechanisms are strong and most effective with respect to assets that the country holds abroad that may already be subject to existing judgments, said Nolan. Arbitration courts use a rule to value expropriated assets based on the amount the company was worth before the nationalization was announced, said Lamm.

“Sooner or later, Argentina is going to have to deal with its obligations if it ever wants to go to international capital markets again,” she said. “Argentina will fight about every comma, repeatedly, because it prolongs judgment day.”

[admin]

Sigue la caida

-132.44

[admin]

Au down 1,557

Oil down 94.05

Ag down 28.34

VIX up 21.24

[admin]

El deficit de California es de $16 billones.

-124.46

[admin]

El socialismo en Argentina

Argentina le ha dado 15 dias a las mineras Vale, Xtrata y Barrick para comprar productos manufacturados en el pais. Argentina quiere reducir las importaciones y controlar la salida de dolares. En Octubre el gobierno le ordeno a las mineras y petroleras que repatriaran los dolares producto de sus exportaciones.


Argentina Gives Vale, Xstrata, Anglo Local Content Deadline (Update 1)
By Rodrigo Orihuela and Silvia Martinez - May 11, 2012 7:38 PM ET .Facebook Share LinkedIn Google +1 0 Comments
Print QUEUEQ..Argentina has given mining companies Vale SA (VALE3), Xstrata Plc (XTA) and Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) 15 days to present plans to replace imports with goods manufactured in the country as the South American nation seeks to boost local industries.

“We need a strong mining industry, that generates development in the regions where it’s installed,” Production Minister Debora Georgi said today in an e-mailed statement after giving the miners the deadline at a meeting today in Buenos Aires. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (ANG) also participated in the meeting, according to the statement.

Argentina is seeking to reduce imports and control dollar outflows after the South American country’s trade surplus shrank in the past two years. In October, the government ordered miners and oil producers to repatriate export revenue.

The increase in so-called local content for miners will occur in two stages, according to the ministry statement. In the first, goods that are already produced in Argentina will replace imports, while in the second equipment and refining processes will be developed to increase so-called added value for the country. No time frame was given for the two stages.

In an effort to stem capital flight that almost doubled last year to $21.5 billion, Fernandez boosted oversight of the currency market starting the week after her October re-election. Cash-sniffing dogs were deployed at the main ferry terminal to Uruguay and she required all purchases of foreign currencies to have approval from the federal tax agency.

Revising Plans
Vale said this month that it is revising plans to build a $5.9 billion potash mine in Argentina because it needs to assess “new elements” regarding the mine, Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira said May 3.

Argentina last month nationalized 51 percent of YPF SA, the country’s largest oil company. The seizure was necessary to boost production after years of dwindling output under former controlling stakeholder Repsol YPF SA, according to President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

A Vale official in Rio didn’t have an immediate comment about the measures announced today when contacted by Bloomberg News. Vale shares dropped 2.2 percent to 38.36 reais at 4 p.m. in Sao Paulo trading.

The Ministry’s plan is in line with Xstrata’s development at Alumbrera, Julian Rooney, an Xstrata executive in Argentina, said today in an e-mailed statement.

Officials at Barrick, AngloGold, and Pan American Silver did not immediately respond to messages from Bloomberg seeking comment.

[admin]

El crecimiento de China es visto como el mas bajo en 13 anios por Pimco.

La desaceleracion en China podria profundizarse mientras el gobierno trata de contener el exceso de creditos gradualmente mientras aplica un estimulo que dejaria a la economia creciendo al menor ritmo en 13 anios, dijo Pimco.

La economia no tocara piso si no hasta el tercer trimestre, el gobienro gradualmente aplicara mas estimulos, pero no de manera agresiva como lo hicieron en el 2009 debido al excesivo credito en el sector viviendas, dijo Pimco. La economia crecera algo del 7%.

China Growth Seen at 13-Year Low by Pimco
By Bloomberg News - May 14, 2012 6:00 AM ET

China’s slowdown may deepen as policy makers unwind the excesses of a record credit boom while gradually stepping up stimulus, leaving 2012 growth at the weakest in 13 years, Pacific Investment Management Co. says.

“The economy is unlikely to bottom until the third quarter,” Ramin Toloui, Pimco’s global co-head of emerging markets portfolio management in Singapore, said in e-mailed comments yesterday. “Policy makers will progressively turn the dial toward more stimulus, but not in the aggressive manner of 2009,” restrained by the goal of tempering the credit-fueled property market, he said.

Pimco, which oversees the world’s largest bond fund, sees Chinese growth this year in the “mid-7 percent range,” a pace unseen since 1999. Its call is still lower than that of banks from Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Bank of America Corp. and UBS AG, which all pared their forecasts after April economic data were released last week.

A more measured pace of stimulus now than the record fiscal package and lending boom of 2009 may help reduce the risk of an eventual credit bust. China’s central bank has so far held off on lowering interest rates, opting two days ago to execute the third reduction in banks’ reserve ratios since November.

The reserve-ratio cuts are “meant to control the risk of a hard landing, not to avoid a soft landing,” said Stephen Jen, managing partner at SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and former currency strategist at Morgan Stanley. “These monetary policies are reactive, very different from what some analysts had been expecting -- something much more aggressive and pre-emptive.”

Growth Slowdown
Citigroup projects second-quarter expansion of 7.5 percent, down from a prior forecast of 7.9 percent, and full-year growth of 8.1 percent, compared with 8.4 percent, according to a research note today. Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. predicts growth of 8.3 percent this year, down from a prior forecast of 8.6 percent, according to a research note today.

China’s growth rate slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter from 11.9 percent two years ago.

Pimco’s Bill Gross, who runs the Total Return Fund, cut his holdings of emerging-market debt to a two-year low last month. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 0.6 percent today, falling a second day after reports on May 11 showed China’s industrial production and retail sales grew less than forecast.

Chances of an interest-rate reduction are still “small at the moment,” Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist at Bank of America, said in a May 12 research note. The government has left rates unchanged since an increase in July.

Longer Pause
The People’s Bank of China said it will cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points effective May 18. The reduction will inject about 400 billion yuan of liquidity into the banking system, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. estimates.

The pause of almost three months between the two reserve- ratio cuts this year, longer than investors expected, “shows the central government’s deep concern on bubble risks,” Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale SA, said in a research note today. “Any easing measures will still be implemented in a much more cautious manner” than in 2008-2009, she said.

The April reports “highlight unequivocally the weakening growth momentum” in China, Citigroup said.

JPMorgan reduced its second-quarter expansion forecast to 7.8 percent from 8 percent and full-year projection to 8 percent from 8.2 percent. Monetary and fiscal policy “has so far been behind the curve,” economists led by Zhu Haibin said in a May 11 research note.

Relaxing Regulations
Standard Chartered Plc is forecasting another three cuts in the reserve ratio this year for a total of 150 basis points. The government will probably also relax loan-to-deposit ratio regulations to boost credit growth, Li Wei, a Shanghai-based economist with the bank, said in a May 12 note.

Stephen Roach, former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia, said China has “plenty of scope for easing” to boost growth, with an interest-rate cut likely to happen “sooner rather than later.”

“Chinese authorities have plenty of counter-cyclical ammunition to deploy,” said Roach, who now teaches at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.

51job Inc., a Shanghai-based recruiting service provider, and 7 Days Group Holdings Ltd., a hotel operator based in Guangzhou, last week pared sales forecasts. Shares of 51job fell the most since September on May 10, while 7 Days Group sank to the lowest since July 2010.

China’s policy makers are attempting to guide the economy and financial sector to a “dual soft landing” by moderating credit growth and unwinding the excesses of an investment boom during the global financial crisis without triggering a collapse, Toloui said. Policy makers also probably want to keep some stimulus firepower in reserve for next year, the new leadership’s first full year in office, Toloui said.

“The policy response this time around is likely to be deliberate, incremental and reactive to incoming data on the economy and financial conditions,” he said.

--Kevin Hamlin. With assistance

[admin]

-141.07

Sigue bajando

[admin]

El petroleo debajo de 94

[admin]

Yield down 1.77%

Euro down 1.2835

-155.79

Cortando mas cabezas en JPM por las perdidas de $2 billones en trading.