Jueves 17/05/12 Actividad economica en Philadelphia

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Futures cu up 3.4870

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+17

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Uno de los traders dijo que el S&P 500 debe por lo menos cerrar al nivel del cierre de ayer, de otra manera las ventas podrian precipitarse mas.

Europa a la baja.

+16

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Grecia demora cumplimiento metas rescate por parálisis política
jueves 17 de mayo de 2012 08:55 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] Por Ingrid Melander y George Georgiopoulos
ATENAS (Reuters) - La prolongada incertidumbre electoral ha dejado a Grecia en un profundo congelamiento, lo que significa que la persona que emerja finalmente como nuevo líder recibirá un país ya atrasado en sus promesas a los prestamistas.

La Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) demandaron recortes y reformas exhaustivas como parte de un paquete de rescate de 130.000 millones de euros acordado en marzo.

Pero Grecia no ha tenido un Gobierno electo desde los comicios con resultados no concluyentes del 6 de mayo y la parálisis continuará al menos por otro mes, aún cuando los fondos se agoten en el Tesoro.

El juez veterano Panagiotis Pikrammenos juró el miércoles como primer ministro interino, pero no tendrá autoridad para tomar ninguna decisión política más que conducir al país hacia una nueva votación el 17 de junio.

"Lo único que estamos haciendo es esperar", dijo un funcionario del Gobierno que declinó ser identificado.

Otro funcionario griego cercano a las negociaciones del rescate dijo que los ministros del Gabinete saliente no han sido autorizados a negociar con los prestamistas griegos desde la elección del 6 de mayo.

Un alto funcionario de un partido dijo que el Gobierno interino no publicará decretos y que todos los procedimientos estaban suspendidos.

Los izquierdistas favoritos para ganar la próxima elección han alarmado a Europa al amenazar con romper directamente con el rescate. Pero aún si el siguiente Gobierno griego quiere mantener el acuerdo, tendrá mucho que hacer desde el primer día.

Un programa de privatización ya recortado en muchas oportunidades ha sido reducido, un plan de recorte del gasto de millones de euros está lejos de estar listo, la recolección de impuestos sigue siendo débil y un plan de recapitalización bancaria está en el limbo.
Una consecuencia ya se volvió clara el miércoles: fuentes del Banco Central Europeo dijeron que habían retenido liquidez para algunos bancos griegos debido a que el plan de recapitalización aún no había sido implementado exitosamente.

Aún antes de la elección del 6 de mayo, muchas reformas fueron puestas en segundo plano para evitar el malestar de los votantes, dijeron funcionarios involucrados en las conversaciones por el rescate.

Estas incluyen un plan para reducir el gasto en más de 11.500 millones de euros en el 2013-2014, que los griegos deben acordar hacia fines de junio para cumplir con un objetivo clave del rescate.

Las privatizaciones necesarias para recaudar dinero están suspendidas. El consejo directivo del fondo de privatización de Grecia decidió el martes que no tomará ninguna decisión sobre venta de bienes del Estado "hasta la formación de un Gobierno".

Atenas ya ha reducido un objetivo inicial de recaudar 50.000 millones de euros para el 2015 a 19.000 millones de euros luego de un comienzo muy lento. Aún una meta revisada de 3.000 millones de euros para el 2012 solamente es ahora difícil de alcanzar, dicen analistas.

Los prestamistas de Grecia no están conformes, como el fondo de privatización mismo notó en un comunicado: "Los observadores del consejo directivo que representan a la Unión Europea y la eurozona expresaron su preocupación por esta decisión".

Representantes del FMI y la UE han advertido que no entregarán más ayuda bajo el nuevo rescate si Atenas se desvía nuevamente del camino de la reforma.

Inspectores de la UE, el FMI y el Banco Central Europeo, conocido como la troika, no volarán a Atenas para chequear su progreso y liberar ayuda hasta que un Gobierno esté en funciones, con ministros que hayan revisado los libros y hayan tomado decisiones políticas.

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El indice del dolar al alza a 81.49 o +0.15%

Yields up 1.77%

+17

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Copper May 17,08:59
Bid/Ask 3.5063 - 3.5066
Change +0.0169 +0.49%
Low/High 3.4871 - 3.5506
Charts

Nickel May 17,08:58
Bid/Ask 7.6851 - 7.6891
Change +0.0271 +0.35%
Low/High 7.5999 - 7.7419
Charts

Aluminum May 17,08:59
Bid/Ask 0.8992 - 0.8995
Change +0.0006 +0.06%
Low/High 0.8959 - 0.9059
Charts

Zinc May 17,08:59
Bid/Ask 0.8584 - 0.8588
Change +0.0007 +0.08%
Low/High 0.8558 - 0.8717
Charts

Lead May 17,08:59
Bid/Ask 0.8766 - 0.8774
Change -0.0079 -0.89%
Low/High 0.8711 - 0.8949

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La salida de Grecia de la zona euro tendria consecuencias tan tumultuosas que las mismas autoridades Europeas se rehusan a recrear el escenario de lo que ocurriria.

Grecia recibe billones de euros en ayuda. Adios a eso, tambien adios al acceso a los mercados internos Europeos. No solo saldrian de la zona euro si no tambien de Union Europea.

Lagarde del IMF ya ha hecho estudios tecnicos acerca de la salida de Grecia y dijo que era excesivamente costosa.

Si Grecia saliera no puede decirlo para evitar que mas dinero salga de los bancos Griegos y del pais.

Si Grecia saliera del euro, los bancos tendrian que convertir la deuda a la nueva moneda y los ahorros en los bancos a la nueva moneda.

Para que Grecia sea competitiva Grecia tendria que devaluar su moneda en 40%, las importaciones se duplicarian en precio, mientras los extranjeros podrian vacacionar en Grecia a mitad de precio.

Asi se le perdonara la deuda a Grecia, lo que ese pais recauda en impuestos no alcanza para pagar su deuda. Tendrian que imprimir moneda y recortar pensiones.

En el corto plazo todos sufriran.

Experts Try to Chart Path for Exit From Currency


By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER

Going back to the drachma, Greece's former currency, would be messy.
BRUSSELS—Returning to a national currency after more than a decade of using the euro and having its money managed by the European Central Bank would catapult Greece into a financial, legal and political no man's land.

Countries have defaulted, devalued, or even withdrawn from a broader monetary union in the past. But none has done it all at once—and certainly not an economy so deeply integrated into global financial markets.

Greece would have to remake its monetary system and rebuild its economy after a likely sharp devaluation that would have delivered a severe confidence shock to the population, undermined its banks and triggered likely defaults on debts to foreigners.

The consequences of an exit from the euro for Greece and the rest of Europe would likely be so tumultuous that policy makers have been reluctant even to speculate on how it could work. And even though the taboo of mentioning a euro exit has fallen away in recent months, going back to the drachma would likely be messy, with many steps having to be improvised overnight.

Returning to a national currency after more than a decade of using the euro and having its money managed by the European Central Bank would catapult Greece into a financial, legal and political no man's land. Charles Forelle and Simon Nixon discuss. Photo: Reuters
. As Greece's talks teetered and depositors withdrew millions from banks on Monday, Europe considered the ramifications of Greece leaving the euro zone. Charles Forelle reports on Markets Hub. Photo: AFP/Getty Images.
.Until recently, policy makers usually smothered any questions on a potential euro exit with a simple answer: It's impossible to leave the common currency under European Union law. There is no provision in the EU treaties for exiting the euro zone without also dropping out of the broader 27-country bloc.

Leaving the EU would also mean an end to billions of euros in farm and development subsidies, as well as easy access to a large internal markets—a threat that Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter voiced Monday.

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."It's impossible to leave the euro zone—one can only leave the European Union," she told reporters at a meeting with her counterparts in Brussels. "After that, Greece would have to apply for re-accession and we would hold accession talks and look very closely whether Greece actually fulfills the accession requirements."

Ms. Fekter's comments reflect mounting frustration in some European countries with Greece, but also the idea that if a clear exit route is established, other countries may be encouraged to take the same course.

"Too much policy clarity on the questions raised by a Greek exit could be counterproductive," says Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst with Eurasia Group. "If too smooth a pathway were designed, it could encourage other struggling sovereigns to contemplate a similar fate in the medium to longer term."

On the other hand, making things difficult could heighten the strains on the Greek economy, and increase the economic fallout on other members of the EU. "It would be in the interest of the others to make sure that things aren't absolutely dreadful," says Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics in London, who has written a 150-page paper on the practicalities of a Greek euro exit.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Wednesday said the fund had conducted a technical assessment of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone, and warned it would be "extremely expensive."

Meanwhile, some European legal experts have come up with work-arounds for the lack of a euro exit clause under EU law.

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.For instance, citing a fundamental breach of the euro's basic criteria like debt and deficit levels, the euro zone could engineer a "reversed entry" into the currency union, turning Greece into a "member state with a derogation," says Alexander Türk, a law professor at King's College London. That would group Greece with countries like Sweden, which legally are required to adopt the euro but put off that process by deliberately failing to fulfill core requirements.

"If it's politically opportune, then lawyers will find a way to make it happen," says Mr. Türk.

Greece would need to keep its decision to exit a secret as long as possible to avoid even more money fleeing the country. Ordering new drachma notes could take months and could leak, encouraging Greeks to increase euro withdrawals from banks, accelerating the exit timetable.

Mr. Bootle suggests bridging that period by moving to electronic payments. Or, Greece could quickly print money-like vouchers, says Guntram Wolff, deputy director of Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

The actual switch could happen over a long weekend, during which banks and automated teller machines would be shut and other capital controls would be enforced. Bank accounts would be converted from euros to new drachmas, and domestic debt and other contracts would change to the new currency.

For simplicity's sake, the internal conversion rate should be one-to-one, Mr. Bootle says. Foreign-exchange markets would take care of devaluing the drachma relative to other currencies.

Economists say that to become competitive, Greece needs to devalue by at least 40%. That means imports such as oil or cars would become almost twice as expensive, while a German could vacation on Crete for half the price. "At a stroke, Greece can lower its real exchange rate and therefore be more competitive," Mr. Bootle says.

But many pitfalls await before Greece would find itself in that position. Even stripping out debt and interest payments, the Greek state is not taking in enough taxes to pay its bills. That means it either has to cut pensions and other benefits more quickly than under its bailout program or print more money. The latter option would risk fueling inflation already high from increases in import prices—eliminating some of the benefits of devaluation.

Debt contracts denominated in euros would suddenly be a bigger burden to repay, raising the likelihood of defaults to foreigners by companies and banks. It would also raise questions about whether the country could service its recently restructured bonds and bailout debts it owes other governments and the IMF.

The economic disruption would likely pummel Greece's private sector, with companies having to renegotiate contracts with businesses abroad.

"In the short term, everyone would be suffering," Mr. Wolff says.

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Au up 1,554

+17

Euro down 1.2713

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+9.91

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VIX down 21.92

OIl up 93.57

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+8.39

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+5.75

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-2.19

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SCCO +0.42%

BVN +0.65%

EPU +0.64%

BAP +0.27%

C -1.08%

ERX +0.90%

EDC -0.36%

EGO +3.61%

AAPL -0.40%

USO +0.68%

X -0.70%

AA +0.12%

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En rojo

-13.62