por admin » Dom Jun 10, 2012 6:22 pm
Las exxportacions de China subieron mas del doble de lo que los analistas esperaban, pero la produccion industrial y las ventas retail subieron menos de lo que se esperaba.
La produccion industrial subio solamente 9.6%, las exportaciones subieron 15.3%
China Trade Surprise Signals Domestic Stimulus Focus: Economy
By Bloomberg News -
Jun 10, 2012 12:01 PM ET
Print QUEUEQ..China’s exports grew in May at more than double the pace analysts estimated while industrial output and retail sales trailed forecasts, signaling last week’s cut in interest rates was aimed at countering a domestic slowdown.
Overseas shipments climbed 15.3 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said yesterday, exceeding all 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Industrial output rose by less than 10 percent for a second month and retail sales increased the least in almost six years excluding holiday-month distortions, statistics bureau reports showed June 9.
Shipping containers are stacked at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai. China’s resilience in trade indicates Europe’s debt crisis has yet to produce a collapse in world commerce on the scale of the 2008 global recession, even as the plight of Spain’s banks threatens to deepen the trauma.
Shipping containers are stacked at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai. China’s resilience in trade indicates Europe’s debt crisis has yet to produce a collapse in world commerce on the scale of the 2008 global recession, even as the plight of Spain’s banks threatens to deepen the trauma. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
.China’s resilience in trade indicates Europe’s debt crisis has yet to produce a collapse in world commerce on the scale of the 2008 global recession, even as the plight of Spain’s banks threatens to deepen the trauma. Stronger exports and imports also support the case for Premier Wen Jiabao to adopt a more restrained stimulus than the credit boom that started in late 2008 and stoked a property bubble.
“The better-than-expected trade data should help alleviate ongoing concerns of a sharp growth deterioration in the near term,” said Sun Junwei, a Beijing-based economist with HSBC Holdings Plc. “The key to securing a soft landing pivots on reviving domestic demand and that will necessitate more stimulus but it will be more measured than in 2008 and monetary policy won’t be eased excessively.”
The government may boost tax cuts and speed up spending on public works to ensure growth of more than 8.5 percent in the second half of the year, the bank says. Further reductions in interest rates are “possible” and reserve requirements may be cut four more times this year to spur lending, according to Sun.
Deepening Slowdown
China’s stocks had their biggest slide this year last week, after the interest-rate cut intensified concerns the nation’s economic slowdown is deepening. Stocks in Europe posted their biggest weekly advance in four months and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) had its best weekly gain since December amid speculation central banks around the world will act to spur growth.
European finance ministers agreed June 9 to provide Spain with as much as $125 billion to bail out its banks, making it the fourth member of the euro area to seek aid since the debt crisis began at the end of 2009.
China on June 7 announced the first cut in interest rates in more than three years to spur demand. The 25 basis-point reduction took one-year borrowing costs to 6.31 percent and the one-year savings rate to 3.25 percent.
Inflation Eases
China’s economic growth fell to 8.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and may slide to 7.7 percent in the three months through June, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bank also predicts full-year expansion of 7.7 percent, the least since 1999. Wen in March set a 2012 growth target of 7.5 percent, down from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005.
Inflation in May eased to 3 percent, the statistics bureau said, the lowest reading in two years and below the government’s 2012 target of 4 percent for the fourth month.
The decline will offer more room for policy easing, said Lu Ting, head of Greater China economics at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. He expects the government to start and speed up more projects and make financing easier by cutting reserve requirements and interest rates, approving more corporate bond issuance and lifting lending restrictions.
Money-Supply Growth
The People’s Bank of China may release money supply and new lending figures for May as soon as today. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, probably rose 12.9 percent while new yuan loans were 700 billion yuan ($110 billion), up from 681.8 billion yuan the previous month and 551.6 billion yuan a year ago, Bloomberg surveys showed.
Elsewhere in Asia today, a report from Singapore may show non-oil domestic exports rose 3 percent in May from a year earlier after an 8.3 percent gain in April.
In France, a report will show industrial production fell for a second month in April from the previous month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. In Italy, the national statistics institute will confirm last month’s preliminary report that the economy contracted 0.8 percent in the three months through March from the previous quarter, a separate survey showed.
China’s statistics bureau also reported fixed-asset investment excluding rural households rose 20 percent in the first five months. That was the weakest gain for a January-May period since 2001, according to previously released data.
Industrial output increased 9.6 percent in May from a year earlier and retail sales grew 13.8 percent. Home-appliance sales growth slid to 0.5 percent compared with a 15.4 percent gain a year ago, after the government ended incentive programs.
Consumer Subsidies
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd. (493), China’s second- biggest electronics retailer, said May 25 its first-quarter net income slumped 88 percent from a year earlier as demand dropped when the programs ended. President Wang Jun Zhou said new subsidies announced last month for energy-saving appliances will be “particularly important” to boost television and air- conditioner sales.
Customs data showed a trade surplus of $18.7 billion last month, more than economists estimated, while the median forecast for export growth was 7.1 percent. Imports rose 12.7 percent from a year earlier compared with the median estimate for a 5.5 percent gain. Crude oil purchases climbed to a record and iron ore imports were the highest in three months.
“This shows it’s not all doom and gloom,” said Song Seng Wun, an economist with CIMB Research Pte. in Singapore. “Growth momentum may be slowing, but it’s not about to crash.”
--Zhou Xin, Zheng Lifei. Editors: Nerys Avery, Tim Farrand
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