Miercoles 13/06/12 Ventas retail, inventarios negocios

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-17

Euro up 1.2547



Yields up 1.68%

Oil down 83.14

Au up 1,612,

Ag down 28.38

Futures cu up 3.35

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Los yields de Espana e Italia bajan pero aun siguen altos. La presion sobre Italia continua, Monti debe acelerar reformas.

Jamie Dimon testifica en el Senado, sera crucificado por la perdida de $2 billones.

A la espera de los downgrades de la banca Americana.

Au up 1,612.80

Trigo y cafe al alza, los demas a la baja.

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La produccion industrial de Europa cae 0.8% en Europa en el mes de Abril. Es el nivel mas bajo desde Setiembre.

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Como la pequena Finlandia puede poner fin a la crisis del euro.

Segun este articulo, nadie sabe lo que pasara con el rescate de Espana, probablemente no es suficiente y probablemente necesiten otro rescate, despues vendra Italia que exigira que les den las mismas condiciones que le daran a Espana, es decir pagar la mitad de intereses como a Espana, solo 3%, de no ser asi toda Italia protestara ya que ellos tienen que pagar tambien por los fondos que le daran a su vecino a la mitad de intereses. Ya Finland que tiene una economia muy fuerte y no necesita al euro a diferencia de Alemania, ha pedido garantias por la parte que tiene que pagar para el rescate de Espana, si no hay garantias de que le devolveran su dinero, se iran de la zona euro y eso marcara el final de la moneda. Los unicos activos que deben tener en sus portafolios, son dolares, oro y francos Suizos, si eso ocurre.

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How tiny Finland could bring euro crisis to end
By Matthew Lynn
LONDON (MarketWatch) — The most pressing question about the euro crisis is also the hardest one for anyone to answer. It is easy to analyze why the single currency has gone so badly off the rails, pick apart the flaws in its construction, and identify the mistakes made in the endless bailout packages. But how will the saga eventually resolve itself?

No one can know for sure. There are so many actors on the stage and so many conflicting ambitions and pressures on each of them that every prediction has to be hedged with uncertainty.

Tiny Finland, known mostly for its elegant Aalto architecture and its Nokia mobile phones, could be the key to resolving the euro crisis. But here’s how it might come to a head over the summer: a “Spanic,” followed by a “Quitaly,” followed by a “Fixit.” A fresh panic in Spain might be followed by rising demands for Italy to quit if it doesn’t get the same terms its fellow Mediterranean country has been offered, followed by a Finnish departure from the euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.21% that might finally bring the whole saga to a climax. It would be a rough ride — and you wouldn’t want to be holding many assets other than dollars or gold or possibly Swiss francs while it was playing itself out. But at least it might bring a resolution to the crisis.

This week, the news has been dominated by the bailout for Spain. It has become the fourth country to need some form of financial rescue, and it’s by far the largest. Almost a quarter of the euro’s 17 members have now needed outside help, and Cyprus will probably join the list soon. It is hardly a great record for a monetary experiment, which, let us remember, was meant to bring greater stability — not less.

So how could this play out over the summer. Here’s how the sequence might work:

First, the Spanic (for a panic in Spain). We’ve just seen one rescue package for the troubled Spanish banks. But who says 100 billion euros is enough? This is a country that is sliding into deep recession, and where the government is cutting spending fast — which is only going to deepen the recession. The economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% this year, and the actual outcome could be much worse. During a recession, businesses go broke, unemployment rises, and loans don’t get repaid because people don’t have any money. None of that is good for the banking system.

Worse, no one really knows precisely where the bailout money will come from, or how much is actually needed. One thing that can be said for certain about euro land, after two years of this crisis, is that everything is always worse than it looks at first sight. Nothing has really been done to make sure that Spain is on the path to recovery. If the rescue falls apart, however, and Spain has to come back for another package, then there will be a massive run on its financial system.

That will be the Spanic.

Next, a Quitaly (for Italy’s quitting). The Spanish bailout puts pressure immediately on Italy. The precise terms of the Spanish bailout have not been agreed yet, but the reports are that Spain’s banks are going to get funding at an interest rate of 3%. Italy’s banks, and the Italian government, have to pay 6%, if they can get funding at all. The Spanish money does not even come with very onerous conditions — at least no more onerous than the budget cuts already being imposed by the government.

Imagine how that is going to feel to the Italians. The Spanish get to borrow money at half what it costs them — and this at a time when very high borrowing cost are pushing your country into the fifth recession since the nation joined the single currency. Worse, Italy has to stump up around 22% of the Spanish rescue — borrowing money at 6% to give to its neighbors at 3%. That isn’t going to go down well. Inside Italy, pressure is inevitably going to grow for it to get the same terms — and if it doesn’t, it will threaten to quit the single currency, with all the chaos that could bring about.

Finally a Fixit (for a Finnish exit). The crisis will finally come to a head when one country decides to get out. Finland is the most likely. Why? Because it is a small nation with a strong economy. It is easy to head for the door. Finland would be better off on the first day, just as Estonia was when it decided to leave the ill-fated ruble zone created after the collapse of the old Soviet Union. It doesn’t particularly have to worry about the impact on the European Union, in the way that Germany would if it opted out. If a country such as that leaves, it is effectively game over, but no one can really say that of a tiny place such as Finland. And it has a strong anti-euro political grouping; the True Finns scored well in the last election and may well improve their position in the polls.

Finland is already demanding collateral for its portion of the Spanish loan. That could well turn into a deal-breaker — no collateral, so we’re out of here. Once one country leaves, it is much easier for the next to leave, in much the same way as it is easier to be the second person to leave a really bad party than the first.

A Finnish exit will be the trigger for the single currency to either be taken apart, or else for a smaller euro zone with fewer countries and tighter rules to be created. Either way, it would bring the crisis to a much-needed resolution.

Nothing about that process is likely to be smooth. And if it does play out like that then the only assets you want in your portfolio while it is happening are dollars and gold, and maybe a few Swiss francs as well. Everything else would sink to bargain-basement levels. But at least the whole sorry saga would be reaching its end.
/quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled Add to portfolio EURUSD USD/EUR US : ICAP Currencies 1.2531 +0.0027 +0.2143% Volume: 0.0000June 13, 2012 8:17a
Matthew Lynn is chief executive of Strategy Economics, a London-based consultancy. His latest book, "The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031," is published by Endeavour Press.

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http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

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Las ventas retail bajan 0.2% en linea con lo esperado.

El PPI baja 1%, mas de lo esperado, alimentos y energia suben. Anual 2.7% (no core)

Malas noticias.

Los futures se resienten

-41

Oil d own 82.74

Francia -0.54%

Espana +0.87%

Alemania -0.76%

Euro up 1.2535

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Los costos de Italia 6.157%

-48

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Yen up 79.53

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Cuando el euro fue creado en 1999, Milton Friedman predijo que se desintegraria en 10 anios.

Como terminara el euro

Grecia simplemente se quedara sin cash. Luego la burbuja de bienes raices en Espana arruinara la economia real.

El euro es la primera moneda sin pais, la Union Europea no es un estado federal como US, es la aglomeracion de estados soberanos. Los paises Europeos estan plagados de rigidez, incluyendo el mercado laboral, donde las diferencias de lenguaje y la proteccion al comercio y profesiones en muchos paises impiden la mobilidad laboral. Eso hace muy dificil que sus economias se ajusten a los cambios ciclicos y estructurales.

Por esas razones Milton Friedman en 1999 predijo el fin del euro, se equivoco en cuando, pero talvez estuvo correcto en el fin.

Grecia es el epicentro de la crisis del euro y la crisis fiscal de la zona euro. Los mercados temen a "Grexit" (exit es salida) del euro. El final del juego sera jugado en Espana. Grecia ya esta asiamilada.

Primero Grecia, donde no hay cash, los Greigos y hasta el gobierno no tienen cash. El gobierno no esta pagando a sus proveedores y a sus trabajadores de manera regular, por lo que los ciudadanos no pueden pagar sus cuentas a los negocios con los que transan. Los negocios por lo tanto no pueden pagar a sus proveedores. Es una cascada de excasez de cash.

Normalmente el credito se usa en las transacciones economicas. Pero no hay credito en Grecia, Cada uno esta moviendo sy dinero fuera del pais, especialmente a Alemania o bancos Suizos, Ingleses, etc.

Con una ausencia de drama, Grecia saldra de la zona euro mas que por su propia decision por necesidad. Lo hara no por que el drachma sea superior al euro, pero porque el drachma es superior al barter (intercambio de bienes sin usar la moneda). El standard de vida de los Griegos, que ya ha bajado bastante, caera aun mas en el corto y mediano plazo. Y alli empezara el nuevo futuro para los Griegos, depende de ellos.

Si bien es cierto la salida de Grecia tendra repercusiones, no sera una tragedia como algunos pintan. La salida de Espana sera si totalmente diferente. A diferencia de Grecia, Espana es una economia mayor. De acuerdo al IMF en el 2011, la economia de Griega es cinco veces la de Grecia. Y a diferencia de Grecia, Espana tiene muchos bancos, algunos de ellos grandes y globales.

La tragedia Griega empezo con la risis fiscal- iniciada por el gobierno al gastar tanto, mucho mas de lo que recolectaba y se convirtio en una crisis bancaria, En Espana hay una crisis fiscal tambien que solo empeora la crisis bancaria.

Crisis fiscales y bancarias siempre estan conectadas por que en la economia moderna el estado y la banca estan conectadas. Los bancos compran deuda del gobierno, apoyando al estado y los gobiernos garantizan las deudas de la banca. Cuando una parte se debilita, tambien lo hace la otra.

La banca Espanola esta afectada no solamente por que el gobierno esta teniendo una gran crisis fiscal, pero por los prestamos morosos en el sector privado. Muchos bancos espanoles prestaron abundantemente a los constructores y a lso individuos que querian comprar casas construidas por los constructores. El sector construccion en Espana es proporcionalmente mucho mas grande que el resto de la economia del pais (mas que el resto de paises en la zona euro o US). Y la deuda de la banca para financiar a ese sector crecio mucho mas rapido que en el resto del mundo)

Los bacnos Espanoles han tomado grandes write downs en sus balances, pero no lo suficiente. Solo la excta cantidad de los write downs esta en duda, El gobierno Espanol ha efectivamente nacionalizado un banco Bankia-debido a que estaba insolvente-pero habran mas bancos que correran el mismo futuro.

Finalmente el gobierno Espanol ha admitido que no tiene los fondos para recapitalizar a su banca. Los ministros de la EU han dedicado hasta 100 billones de euros para ese esfuerzo. La experiencia de las crisis bancarias en general sugiere que los estimados de las deudas prueban siempre ser muy bajas. Los lideres politicos empiezan con la negacion y despues solo admiten parte del tamanio real de la crisis. Eso fue verdad para la crisis de US savings y Loans en los 80s y en el 2007-2008, la crisis en Irlanda y ahora en Espana.

Como la situacion de la banca sea manejada determinara el futuro del euro y posiblmente la de Union Europea. Los Alemanes y los demas paises solventes querran dar grandes rescates, lso ciudadanos de lso demas paises fuera de la zona euro, como Sweden y el Reino Unido ayudaran? o Espana descendera a la catastrofe al estilo de los 30s y la Gran Depresion?

Los problemas de la banca Espanola no es el final, solo el principio, de los problemas ed la banca Europea. Los bancos en Francia, el Reino Unido y Alemania tienen grandes cantidades de deuda soberana y privada de Portugal, Italia, Ireland, Grecia y Espana. El gobierno de Cyprus ya ha hecho un llamado urgente solicitando fondos para recapitalizar sus bancos, y los mercados estan preocupados por la deuda de Italia, lo que limita la habilidad de Roma para lidiar con sus problemas bancarios.

La zona euro esta en crisis, en el sentido correcto de la palabra, el punto de retorno de donde se recuperara o terminara. Un factor importante que puede determinar el futuro de la zona descansa grandemente en el liderazgo Europeo.

Los lideres Europeos han mostrado no tener el liderazgo. Hay excepciones, especialemente en los paises del Norte, pero la ausencia de liderazfo sera el factor decisivo para el fin del euro. En Espana y fuera de ella, los lideres han aplicado solo soluciones temporales en lugar de reconocer la verdadera magnitud del problema. Los bancos , no la crisis fiscal, sera lo que termine con el euro.

Al final, estoy de acuerdo con Milton Friedman, si Europa toma la decision de ser un estado federal, una moneda comun es el rumbo naural. Cuando 17 estados deciden adoptar el euro sin union plitica, lo hicieron al reves.

Mr. O'Driscoll is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He was formerly a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and later a vice president at Citigroup.



OPINIONJune 12, 2012, 7:10 p.m. ET
Gerald O'Driscoll: How the Euro Will End
Greece will simply run out of cash. Then Spain's real-estate bubble will ruin an economy that really matters

By GERALD P. O'DRISCOLL JR.
The euro is the world's first currency invented out of whole cloth. It is a currency without a country. The European Union is not a federal state, like the United States, but an agglomeration of sovereign states. European countries are plagued by rigidities, including those in labor markets—where language differences and the protection of trades and professions in many countries impede labor mobility. That makes it difficult for their economies to adjust to cyclical and structural economic shifts.

For such reasons, when the euro was created in 1999, Milton Friedman famously predicted its demise within a decade. He was wrong about the timing, but he may yet be proven right about the fact.

Greece is the epicenter of a currency and fiscal crisis in the euro zone. Markets fear a "Grexit," or Greek exit from the euro. That exit is almost a foregone conclusion. The endgame for the euro will be played out in Spain.

But first to Greece, which is devolving from a money-using economy. Firms, households and even the government are short on cash. The government isn't paying its suppliers and workers in a timely fashion, so households cannot pay their bills to businesses with whom they transact. Businesses, in turn, cannot pay their suppliers. There is a cascade of cash constraints.

Normally, credit supplements cash in economic transactions. But there is scant credit in Greece. Anyone who can is moving their money out of the country, either to banks in other euro-zone countries, such as Germany, or out of the euro to banks in Switzerland, the United Kingdom and U.S. (the franc, pound and dollar, respectively).

Absent a truly dramatic event, Greece will exit the euro not by choice but by necessity. It will do so not because the drachma (its old currency) is superior to the euro, but because the drachma is superior to barter. Greek standards of living, which have already fallen substantially, will fall further in the short- to medium-term. It will then be up to the Greek people to forge a new future.

While a Greek exit from the euro zone will have substantial repercussions, it won't unleash the doomsday scenario painted by some. A Spanish exit would be an entirely different matter. Unlike Greece, Spain is a major economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, at official exchange rates in 2011 the Spanish economy was more than five times the size of Greece's. And unlike Greece, Spain has numerous banks, some large and global.

The Greek tragedy began with a fiscal crisis—brought on by the government spending more money than it took in—that became a banking crisis. In Spain, there is a fiscal crisis that exacerbates a banking crisis.

Fiscal and banking crises are often linked because in modern economics the state and banking are joined together. Banks purchase government debt, supporting the state, and governments guarantee the liabilities of banks. When one party is weakened, so is the other.

Spanish banks are impaired not only because the Spanish government is running large fiscal deficits, but also because of bad loans to the private sector. Many Spanish banks lent heavily to property developers and to individuals who wanted to purchase homes built by the developers. Spain's construction sector is substantially larger relative to the rest of its economy than is the construction sector in other euro-zone countries or the U.S. And bank debt to finance that sector grew much faster than elsewhere.

Spanish banks have taken huge write downs on their loans, but not enough. Only the exact size of the future write downs is in doubt, not that they will be very large. The Spanish government has effectively nationalized one bank, Bankia—due to threatened insolvency—but will very likely be faced with more takeovers.

The Spanish government has finally admitted that it does not have the funds to recapitalize its banks. EU finance ministers have reportedly committed up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) for that effort. Experience with banking crises in general suggests that early estimates of losses will prove to be too low. Political leaders start with denial and then offer only belated recognition of the size of banking problems. That was true in the U.S. savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and the 2007-08 bust in housing finance, the banking crisis in Ireland, so far in Spain.

How the Spanish banking situation is handled will determine the future of the euro and possibly of the larger European Union. Will German's taxpayers and those of other solvent countries be willing to fund an even larger bailout of Spanish banks to save impecunious Spaniards? Will the citizens of EU countries outside the euro zone, such as Sweden and the U.K., be asked to chip in? Or will Spain be allowed to descend into a catastrophic 1930s-style banking crisis and Great Depression?

Spanish banking problems are not the end, but only the beginning, of European banking problems. Banks in France, the U.K. and Germany also hold large amounts of the sovereign and private debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. The government of Cyprus has already made an "exceptionally urgent" request for funds to recapitalize its banks, and markets are now worried about Italy's debt, which limits Rome's ability to deal with banking problems.

The euro zone is in a crisis, in the correct sense of the word, a turning point from which it will either recover or enter a terminal phase. One important factor that may determine the outcome is the degree of leadership in Europe.


By and large, political leaders in Europe are a feckless lot. There are exceptions, particularly in some of the Nordic countries (e.g., Estonia), but the absence of leadership may be the decisive factor leading to the euro's demise. In Spain and elsewhere, leaders have been willing to apply temporary fixes to their banking problems rather than to recognize the true size of the problem. The banks, not fiscal deficits, will be the undoing of the euro.

In the end, I side with Milton Friedman. If Europe had made the political decision for a federal state, a single currency would have been a natural outcome. When 17 states decided to adopt the euro first without political union, they got it backward.

Mr. O'Driscoll is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He was formerly a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and later a vice president at Citigroup.

A

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Au up 1,618

-57

Euro up 1.2525

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El peor error que cometio la banca Americana fue el haber donado tantos millones a la campania presidencial de Obama.

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Segun el articulo anterior que acabo de traducir, el fin del euro sera debido a la crisis bancaria y no a la crisis fiscal, Espana es el fin del euro sin Europa no actua de manera decisiva.

Recuerdo hace uno anios, haber traducido un articulo acerca del sector bienes raices de Espana, el cual decia que comparativamente Espana habia construido mucho mas de lo que habia construido US y el resto de Europa, recien sale a relucir. Pero Espana esta quebrada, el gobierno Espanol no puede recapitazar su banca, no tiene el dinero y la banca Espanola es global, afecta a otros bancos y paises en el resto del mundo.

Esta si es una tragedia.

La crisis bancaria en Europa recien empieza, de Espana pasara a los demas paises. Tenemos para anios con esta crisis Europea.

Lean el articulo, muy educativo.

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Eruo up 1.2520

-62.66

Un dia al alza, otro a la baja, asi pueden ganar los que invierten a corto plazo.

VIX up 23.19

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SCCO +0.37%

BVN +0.20%

EPU -0.10%

BAP -0.16%

C -0.98%

ERX -2.46%

EDC -1.12%

RIO -1.67%

EGO +0.33%

AAPL -0.17%

FAS -1.63%

XLF -0.43%

USO -1.13%

AIG -1.23%

JPM +0.77%

FB +1.31%

CPAC -0.64%

EEM -0.29%

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Copper June 13,09:39
Bid/Ask 3.3316 - 3.3326
Change -0.0121 -0.36%
Low/High 3.3293 - 3.3779
Charts

Nickel June 13,09:39
Bid/Ask 7.6967 - 7.7085
Change -0.0089 -0.12%
Low/High 7.6893 - 7.8100
Charts

Aluminum June 13,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8652 - 0.8656
Change -0.0050 -0.57%
Low/High 0.8651 - 0.8737
Charts

Zinc June 13,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8501 - 0.8506
Change +0.0001 +0.01%
Low/High 0.8494 - 0.8557
Charts

Lead June 13,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8529 - 0.8533
Change -0.0025 -0.29%
Low/High 0.8526 - 0.8619