por admin » Dom Jul 08, 2012 9:10 am
Next Week’s Tape: Don’t Look Now, But It’s Earnings Season
By Kathleen Madigan and Paul Vigna
Next week’s calendar is sparse, with mostly second-tier reports on tap. That paucity may allow lower-level reports to attract attention. It will also shift the focus to U.S. earnings reports, the never-ending crisis in Europe, and a faltering Chinese economy.
Alcoa kicks off earnings season on Monday; J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo report Friday. The season really heats up the week after that, but those are three big, bellwether reports for investors to chew on.
EU finance minsters meet Monday to start filling in the details of last week’s EU summit agreement. Expectations are already being lowered for this meeting, with no firm progress the likely outcome. Also keep an eye out Monday for testimony before the U.K. Parliament of deputy Bank of England governor Paul Tucker over his possible, even inadvertent, role in the expanding Libor scandal.
Next week also brings a host of data out of China, including GDP on Thursday, and consumer and producer prices, both on Sunday. Given reports of a weakening Chinese economy, those reports could be key.
One U.S. economic report that has been growing in importance is the Labor Department’s job opening and labor turnover report – or Jolts. It will be released next Tuesday.
The Jolts report breaks down the gross hirings and job losses that lie beneath the closely watched payrolls data that have disappointed four months in a row. On Friday, the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew only 80,000 in June.
The Jolts report lags payrolls by a month, so next week’s report will cover May, when only 77,000 jobs were created. Economists do not forecast the Jolts data, but the report should spell out whether the weak May net job gain was due to a slowdown in hiring or a spike in separations, which include workers who retire, quit, are laid off, or fired.
The report also tallies up job openings in the economy. Business surveys have shown more companies saying they cannot find qualified workers for hard-to-fill positions.
Two inflation reports are also scheduled for next week.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires think falling oil prices pushed down the June import price index, due Thursday. The median forecast is that import prices plunged 2.0% in June, on top of a 1.0% decline in May.
The producer price index will be reported Friday. Again, declining oil costs will be a factor. The top-line PPI is projected to fall 0.3% in June. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to be up a modest 0.2%.
MarketWatch’s Laura Mandaro came on the Markets Hub this morning to preview next week:
Here’s your handy data calendar for next week:
Monday:
Economics:
May consumer credit (3:00 p.m.): seen expanding by $7.8 billion, after expanding $6.5 billion in April.
Earnings:
Alcoa, WD-40, PriceSmart
Tuesday:
Economics:
NFIB Small Business June survey (7:30 a.m.): headline index seen slipping to 93 from 94.4.
May job openings and labor turnover (Jolts) (10:00 a.m.)
Earnings:
Levi Strauss, Shaw Group, Adtran, Wolverine Worldwide
Wednesday:
Economics:
May US trade deficit (8:30): seen narrowing to$48.8 billion from $50.1 billion.
May wholesale inventories (10:00): seen rising 0.3%, after rising 0.6%.
Earnings:
Marriott, Texas Industries
Thursday:
Economics:
Weekly jobless claims (8:30): seen falling 370,000, from 374,000.
June import prices (8:30): seen down 2.0%, after falling 1.0% in May.
June federal budget (2:00 p.m.): seen widening to $69 billion from $43.1 billion in June 2011.
Earnings:
Progressive, Commerce Bancshares, Bank of the Ozarks
Friday:
Economics:
June producer price index (8:30): seen easing 0.3%, after easing 1.0% in May. Excluding food and energy, prices seen up 0.2%, after rising 0.2% in May.
June Reuters/UMich consumer sentiment (preliminary) (9:55): seen edging higher, to 73.5 from the end-June reading of 73.2.
Earnings:
J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo