Jueves 12/07/12 Precios de los importadores y exp.

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Futures cu down 3.39

Ag down 26.47

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Francia -0.50%

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El Banco de Japon no agrega estimulo.

Azucar y cafe en rojo.

Italia logra vender todo en su subasta de bonos. Los yields bajan.

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Es la primera vez en dos anios que el euro cae debajo de 1.22.

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Se sospecha una desaceleracion mas profunda en China

Los datos oficiales esta semana se expera que muestren una desaceleracion en el crecimiento de China a sus niveles mas bajos desde la crisis financiera. Pero algunos economistas dicen que hay evidencia de que la verdadera situacion de la economia China es mucho peor.

Se espera que la economia haya crecido algo de 7.6% con respecto al anio pasado. Eso es por debajo del 8.1% de crecimiento en el primer trimestre y el mas lento desde el primer trimestre del 2009.

El uso de la electricidad solo subio 2.7% y los economistas piensan que son cifras exageradas por el gobierno.

Deeper Slowdown Suspected in China

By TOM ORLIK And AARON BACK
BEIJING—Official data due this week are expected to show growth in China slowing to its lowest rate since the global financial crisis. But some economists say they are turning up evidence that the true picture could be even worse.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report second-quarter gross domestic product growth on Friday, and according to a Dow Jones poll of 15 economists, it is likely to show the country's economy grew by 7.6% from a year earlier. That is down from 8.1% growth in the first quarter, and the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009.

Coming hard on the heels of a weak jobs report in the U.S in June, and fading business sentiment in European economic powerhouse Germany, fresh evidence of slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy would be a further blow to an already fragile global recovery. If, as some economists suspect, growth is even slower than the official data suggest, that would compound fears that China is poorly placed to help lift the world economy out of its slump.

Economists who doubt the reliability of China's official gross domestic product figures are using other methods to measure China's growth and finding mixed results, reports the WSJ's Aaron Back.
.Economists have responded to long-standing doubts about the reliability of official data by constructing their own indexes of China's growth. Typically these are based on measures such as electricity production, rail freight and real-estate construction that should track growth closely but are regarded as less prone to political interference.

London-based research firm Capital Economics created its own index during the last major downturn during the 2008-09 crisis. "We created a proxy of Chinese economic activity in order to answer doubts about the data, somewhat to our surprise it generally runs in proximity to the official numbers," said Mark Williams, an economist at the firm. "But particularly at the beginning of this year they began to diverge. So doubts about the quality of the data are justified."

Capital Economics's proxy indicator suggests that China's economy grew by around 7.6% in the first quarter of this year, half a percentage point lower than the official GDP figure.

Similar results reached by other analysts have led some to suspect that the data are "smoothed" and become less reliable during periods of rapid slowdown or strong growth—times when the margin for error in calculating the true rate of growth also may be higher.

Friday's numbers will be underpinned by a new approach to collecting data on industrial output, a key measure of China's growth, accounting for about half of GDP.

Under the new approach, in place since February, China's biggest 700,000 enterprises report data directly to the NBS over the Internet. That replaces a system where many reported to local statistics offices, and information was then transmitted from town, to city, to province and to national levels.

The latest approach is intended to overcome one of the main flaws in China's data system—exaggeration of the growth rate by ambitious local officials. A notice on the National Bureau of Statistics website in February announcing the change called on businesses to "submit data independently, resisting any attempts at interference."

That warning to avoid interference may have been prescient. A report in the Chinese press in April, reproduced on the NBS website, cited many instances of abuse of the new system, with some local officials requiring businesses to co-ordinate with local statistical offices before reporting their data, effectively reintroducing the possibility of political interference.

Responding to the reports of abuse in an April statement, Ma Jiantang, the head of the NBS, said "there are still a few low-level officials that are ignoring the statistics law and the statistics system, using overt and covert devices, to interfere with the independent and authentic reporting of data by businesses."

Recently, doubts have been raised that electricity-production data—widely viewed as a reliable proxy for China's growth, also may be subject to political interference, with suspicion that local leaders may be encouraging power producers to exaggerate growth rates.

Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green thought concerns over the electricity data were serious enough to warrant a switch to a new proxy for growth—demand for gas and diesel. This replacement indicator, though, still suggests "sluggish growth rather than recession," he wrote in a recent note, similar to the story told by the official GDP data.

Others believe fears of exaggeration in the electricity data—which registered a dismal 2.7% year-over-year growth rate in May—are overstated. Power generation is dominated by five major state-owned companies in China, which together account for just over half of total electricity output—reducing the scope for local officials to distort the data.

Mr. Lu, manager at a power plant in eastern China, a unit of the state-owned China Guodian Corp., said the plant's output data are transmitted automatically by a computer system to the local municipal statistics bureau. "We need to make daily, monthly and annual reports," he said. "There is no way to falsify this."

Incentives for local leaders may be aligned against exaggerating electricity output. "They have little incentive to over-report use of energy, including electricity, as Beijing imposes increasingly restrictive regulations on energy use per unit of GDP on local governments," said Bank of America Merrill-Lynch economist Lu Ting in a note.

—Yoli Zhang

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Mas y mas economistas estan diciendo que la situacion de China es terrible. Algunos hablan hasta de crecimiento negativo. Esto tiene repercusiones de gran magnitud en el mundo entero por supuesto pero es preocupante para los habitantes de ese pais.

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Au down 1,560

OIl down 85.03

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Los graficos del dia,
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El desempleo en Grecia sube a 22.5%

-72

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-30

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VIX up 19.05

-69.14

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OIl down 84.69

Au down 1,557

-71.67

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Peru busca a inversionistas de Singapore

Peru to Seek Investments From Singapore State Investment Firms
By Allen Wan - Jul 11, 2012 10:26 PM ET

Print QUEUEQ..Peru will seek investments from Singapore’s sovereign wealth firms after they indicated interest in the Latin American country’s projects, Finance Minister Miguel Castilla said.

“We’re going to meet the Singapore wealth funds in a couple of days,” Miguel Castilla said in an interview yesterday from Shanghai. “They’ve shown interest in investing in our assets and they’re looking into projects suitable for investment.”

The meetings come as the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., the city-state’s sovereign wealth fund, and Temasek Holdings Pte, its state-owned investment company, seek to expand in emerging markets including Latin America to boost returns.

Investments in Peru, South America’s sixth-biggest economy, will help tap a market that’s the world’s top silver producer, the third-largest copper production center and sixth for gold. Peru may reach or exceed its economic growth targets for this year, bolstered by domestic demand and a rebound in China, the president of the Peruvian central bank said yesterday.

GIC, as the Singapore fund is known, last year appointed senior executives in new roles to reflect its push into emerging markets, including naming Seek Ngee Huat, president of its real estate unit, to head its Latin American business group.

The Americas made up 42 percent of GIC’s holdings, the biggest by region, according to its website. Jennifer Lewis, spokeswoman for the manager of more than $100 billion of the nation’s reserves, declined to comment on this report.

‘Strategic Engagement’
Temasek, which had S$198 billion ($156 billion) of assets as of March, hired Gregory Curl, once a candidate for chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp., almost two years ago. Curl, who has more than three decades of experience in banking as well as mergers and acquisitions, has the role of president of the Americas at Temasek, which said at the time that he will support its “strategic engagement” in that region.

Temasek also expanded its investments in energy and resources companies, which now account for 6 percent of its holdings from 3 percent a year earlier. Latin American companies make up 1 percent of its portfolio, according to its annual report released last week.

“As a matter of policy, we don’t comment on meetings with officials, or whether or not such meetings are involving us,” Stephen Forshaw, a spokesman for Temasek, said in an e-mail.

Stock Rally
Peru’s benchmark stock index will rally 10 percent or more this year as a recovery spurs at least one more initial share sale, Roberto Hoyle, chairman of Bolsa de Valores de Lima SA, which runs the main securities exchange, said this week.

The Lima General Index has risen 3.2 percent in 2012 after paring an increase of 24 percent reached April 2. Stocks have fallen since then on concern Europe’s debt crisis and China’s economic slowdown will curb Peru’s exports of commodities such as copper and gold.

Peru may reach or exceed its economic growth targets for this year, bolstered by domestic demand and a rebound in China in the third quarter, Julio Velarde, president of the central bank, said yesterday from Shanghai. Growth will be 5.8 percent this year, the central bank said in a June 15 report.

Castilla and Velarde are part of a delegation of Peruvian government officials traveling across Asia, including visits to Hong Kong and Singapore.

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Ag down 26.53

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