por admin » Mar Ago 14, 2012 6:56 am
La economia de Europa se contrae en el segundo trimestre debido a Espana
La economia de la zona euro se contrajo en el segundo trmestre despues de que la crisis empeoro y los recortes de presupuestos forzaron a por lo menos 6 naciones a la recesion.
La economia del bloque europeo se contrajo 0.2% con respecto al primer trimestre cuando no tuvo crecimiento. Con respecto al anio pasado cayo 0.4% en el segundo trimestre.
Espana bajo 0.4%, Portugal 1.2%
La produccion industrial de la zona cayo 0.6%
Euro-Area Economy Contracted in Second Quarter on Spain: Economy
By Simone Meier - Aug 14, 2012 6:35 AM ET
The euro-area economy contracted in the second quarter after the worsening debt crisis and tougher budget cuts forced at least six nations into recessions.
Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc fell 0.2 percent from the first quarter, when it stagnated, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s in line with the median forecast of 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey. From a year earlier, euro-area GDP dropped 0.4 percent in the second quarter.
Europe’s slump is deepening as governments struggle to restore investor confidence in their ability to plug budget deficits as some of the region’s largest companies including Deutsche Bank AG eliminate jobs. In Germany, investor confidence unexpectedly dropped for a fourth month in August and the Bank of Japan’s minutes of the July 11-12 meeting released today cited the euro-area crisis among risks.
“The ongoing recession in large parts of the periphery will continue to hold back euro-zone growth,” said Martin Van Vliet, an economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. “Any recovery will likely remain sluggish and fragile. There are a lot of things that could go wrong on the crisis resolution that could derail the envisaged recovery.”
The euro declined against the dollar after the GDP data and traded at $1.2360 at 12:31 p.m. in Frankfurt, up 0.2 percent on the day, after trading as high as $1.2386 earlier. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) advanced 0.6 percent, with Germany’s benchmark DAX Index up 0.9 percent.
Spain, Italy
In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, GDP rose 0.3 percent from the first quarter, when it gained 0.5 percent. France’s economy stalled for a third straight quarter in the three months through June and Italy’s economy contracted for a fourth straight quarter, shrinking 0.7 percent.
In Spain, which received external aid earlier this year, GDP dropped 0.4 percent from the first quarter, when it fell 0.3 percent. Portugal’s economy contracted 1.2 percent in that period and Cyprus also remained in a recession.
The statistics office didn’t release quarterly data for Ireland and Malta. Both economies contracted in the first quarter. Greece’s GDP is set to drop for a fifth straight year.
Recent indicators suggest the economic slump may deepen in the current quarter. Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted for a sixth month in July and unemployment held at a record of 11.2 percent in June. German investor confidence fell to the lowest this month since December 2011.
‘Further Contraction’
“Our baseline forecast is for euro-zone economic activity to suffer further contraction in the third quarter,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “Tight fiscal policy in many countries, tight credit conditions, high and rising unemployment and muted global growth will continue to weigh down on euro-zone growth.”
Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, said on July 31 that it will eliminate 1,900 jobs by the end of the year, including 1,500 in the investment bank and support areas, as part of an effort to lower costs. PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG), Europe’s second-biggest carmaker, has announced 8,000 job cuts and RWE AG (RWE), Germany’s second-largest utility, said today it will eliminate 2,400 further positions.
Elsewhere, economies are also cooling. In Japan, a reconstruction-fueled rebound waned in the second quarter as consumer-spending growth almost stalled and export gains diminished, a report showed yesterday. In China, the world’s second-biggest economy, export growth was close to zero in July.
Output Drop
In a separate report today, the statistics office said that euro-area industrial production fell 0.6 percent in June from the previous month, when it advanced 0.9 percent. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast a drop of 0.7 percent. Output fell 2.1 percent from a year earlier.
Heinrich Hiesinger, chief executive officer at ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA), Germany’s largest steelmaker, said on Aug. 10 that customers are showing a “high level of caution.” Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest bank, said last week profit will fall “significantly” in the second half.
“We still do not expect the macroeconomic and market environment to stabilize in the second half of 2012,” Commerzbank Chief Financial Officer Stephan Engels said.
With the fiscal crisis weighing on sentiment and eroding growth prospects, policy makers have been under pressure to step up stimulus measures. The U.S. Federal Reserve pledged earlier this month to take new policy steps as needed to promote stronger growth and employment. The Bank of England held its key rate at 0.5 percent and its bond-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($589 billion).
Policy Options
Some Bank of Japan board members said the central bank should not dismiss any policy options in combating risks to the economy from the European sovereign debt crisis, the minutes released in Tokyo showed today. The central bank should “stand ready to take appropriate actions without ruling out any options in advance,” they said, according to the minutes.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Aug. 2 that the ECB may purchase government bonds in tandem with Europe’s rescue funds to fight the crisis. The central bank in July cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.75 percent, a record low, and has injected more than 1 trillion euros ($1.24 trillion) of cheap three-year loans to encourage lending.
The ECB’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters showed the euro-area economy may contract 0.3 percent this year instead of a previously projected 0.2 percent. The economy will expand 0.6 percent and 1.4 percent in 2013 and 2014, it said.
“As far as the ECB is concerned, this is the second attempt I guess after the LTRO programs by Draghi to try and engineer a kind of a game changer,” Michael O’Sullivan, head of portfolio strategy at Credit Suisse Private Banking, told Bloomberg Television’s Maryam Nemazee on Aug. 9. “It’s not really up to the ECB to solve all of the problems of Europe.”
The euro region’s statistics office is scheduled to publish a breakdown of euro-area second-quarter GDP next month.