Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

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Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Dom Sep 02, 2012 10:01 am

Lunes Feriado por el Dia del Trabajo en US.

Eventos economicos

Martes
Ventas de autos
PMI manufacturero
ISM manufacturero
Gasto en construccion

Entre los eventos economicos mas importantes tenemos el ISM no manufacturero el Jueves y la situacion del empleo el Viernes. Se espera una creacion ed 125,000 empleos en el mes de Agosto.

Motor Vehicle Sales


PMI Manufacturing Index
9:00 AM ET


ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


Bank Reserve Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement


Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET


ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET


ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET


10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET


Monster Employment Index


Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET


Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Dom Sep 02, 2012 10:02 am

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* 2/32 0.231
10-Year Note* 22/32 1.554
* at close

5:14 p.m. EDT 08/31/12Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.56 1.94 96.47
Gold 1692.6 35.5 1687.6
E-mini Dow 13082 100 13079
E-mini S&P 500 1404.75 7.75 1405.00

5:30 p.m. EDT 08/31/12Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.38 78.38
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2580 1.2575
† Late New York trading.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Dom Sep 02, 2012 10:02 am

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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:29 am

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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:30 am

Copper September 03,08:19
Bid/Ask 3.4674 - 3.4682
Change +0.0370 +1.08%
Low/High 3.4111 - 3.4809
Charts

Nickel September 03,08:19
Bid/Ask 7.3594 - 7.3866
Change +0.1070 +1.48%
Low/High 7.2215 - 7.3970
Charts

Aluminum September 03,08:19
Bid/Ask 0.8398 - 0.8400
Change +0.0045 +0.54%
Low/High 0.8321 - 0.8436
Charts

Zinc September 03,08:19
Bid/Ask 0.8326 - 0.8331
Change +0.0112 +1.36%
Low/High 0.8192 - 0.8380
Charts

Lead September 03,08:19
Bid/Ask 0.8996 - 0.8998
Change +0.0111 +1.25%
Low/High 0.8857 - 0.9015
Charts
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:31 am

Europe, Africa, Middle East
EURO STOXX 50 PRICE EUR 2,448.24 +7.53
(0.31%) 08:13
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,748.86 +37.37
(0.65%) 08:13
CAC 40 INDEX 3,432.16 +19.08
(0.56%) 08:14
All Europe, Africa, Middle East Indexes
European News
Asia-Pacific
NIKKEI 225 8,783.89 -56.03
(-0.63%) 02:28
HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX 19,559.21 +76.64
(0.39%) 04:01
S&​P/​ASX 200 4,329.67 +13.55
(0.31%) 02:20
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:32 am

Precios de casas de China suben por tercer mes en agosto: sondeo
lunes 3 de septiembre de 2012 07:17 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
PEKIN (Reuters) - Los precios promedio de las casas de las 100 ciudades más grandes de China subieron por tercer mes seguido en agosto aunque el ritmo de los incrementos se moderó, mostró un sondeo privado, sugiriendo que los llamados del gobierno a mantener controles estrictos en el mercado de propiedades están funcionando.

Los precios promedio de las viviendas crecieron 0,2 por ciento a 8.738 yuanes (1.400 dólares) por metro cuadrado en agosto, moderándose desde el aumento mensual de julio, de 0,3 por ciento, dijo el lunes el sistema de índices de bienes raíces de China.

En las 10 principales ciudades del país, incluyendo a Pekín y Shanghái, el precio promedio de la vivienda ascendió el 0,5 por ciento desde julio pero bajó 1,5 por ciento desde hace un año, reflejó el sondeo.

De todos modos, las alzas de los precios de las casas se sumarán al debate sobre si Pekín ajustará aún más los controles sobre el mercado de viviendas en momentos en que la economía china se encuentra atrapada en el peor declive en tres años.

Ocho equipos de inspección enviados por Pekín a fines de julio para verificar si se aplican los controles a las propiedades a lo largo de China hallaron que los precios de las viviendas corren riesgo de repuntar en algunas ciudades, lo que llevó a Pekín a recordar a los gobiernos locales que deben limitar las compras de casas, como fue ordenado.

"Bajo la vigilancia del gobierno central y sus restricciones, el aumento mensual de los precios de las casas se moderó en agosto", dijo el sistema de índices de bienes raíces, conocido como CREIS por sus siglas en inglés, una consultora afiliada a la mayor firma online de propiedades de China, Soufun Holdings.

Los menores avances mensuales sugieren que los desarrolladores de propiedades fijan los precios de las casas nuevas a niveles "razonables" y que los precios de las viviendas en general se mantienen estables, agregó CREIS.

Sin embargo, comparado con los niveles de hace un año, los precios de las casas en las 100 ciudades siguieron un 1,6 por ciento debajo en agosto, el quinto mes de declives anuales desde junio de 2011, cuando CREIS comenzó a calcular cambios en 12 meses.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:33 am

Indice PMI HSBC de China cae a 47,6, peor nivel desde marzo 2009
domingo 2 de septiembre de 2012 22:41 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
PEKIN (Reuters) - Una contracción en el sector fabril de China se intensificó en agosto, cuando cayeron tanto la producción como las nuevas órdenes, mientras que los manufactureros redujeron precios para competir por negocios, mostró un sondeo el lunes.

El índice de gerentes de compra HSBC cayó a una cifra ajustada por estacionalidad de 47,6, su menor nivel desde marzo del 2009. La lectura registró pocos cambios desde una estimación preliminar de 47,8 y fue menor al 49,3 de julio.

El hallazgo de HSBC se compara con los resultados del PMI oficial de China, divulgado el sábado, que alcanzó un mínimo nivel de nueve meses en agosto, cuando cayó 49,2, menos a lo esperado, desde 50,1 en julio.

Fue la primera vez que el PMI oficial ha caído por debajo de los 50 puntos, el umbral que divide la expansión de la contracción, desde noviembre del 2011.

Agosto marcó el décimo mes consecutivo en que el sondeo HSBC, que refleja mejor a los manufactureros más pequeños y del sector privado, ha estado debajo de los 50 puntos.

El subíndice de empleo cayó por sexto mes consecutivo, a su peor lectura desde marzo del 2009.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 7:34 am

Sector fabril de la zona euro se debilita
lunes 3 de septiembre de 2012 06:53 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
Por Jonathan Cable

LONDRES (Reuters) - El sector manufacturero de la zona euro se contrajo más rápido que previsto el mes pasado, a pesar de que las fábricas recortaron los precios, debido a que los países más importantes del bloque no proporcionaron ningún tipo de apoyo, según reveló un sondeo difundido el lunes.

La desaceleración económica que comenzó en los miembros más pequeños de la periferia del bloque de 17 naciones ahora está afectando a Alemania y Francia, y la situación sigue siendo grave en las economías de Italia y España.

"Naciones más grandes como Francia y Alemania siguen marcha atrás", dijo Rob Dobson, economista del recopilador de datos Markit.

El índice final de gerentes de compras (PMI) del sector manufacturero recopilado por Markit cayó desde una lectura anterior de 45,3 a 45,1, por encima del mínimo de tres años registrado en julio de 44,0, pero en su decimotercer mes por debajo de la marca de 50 que separa el crecimiento de la contracción.

"El nivel de caída fue un poco más lento que en julio, entregando alguna esperanza de que la recesión en el sector manufacturero podría estar cediendo, pero el sector está encaminado a actuar como un lastre para el producto interno bruto en el tercer trimestre", dijo Dobson.

Después de haberse contraído un 0,2 por ciento entre abril y junio, se observa que la economía del bloque registrará resultados similares en el trimestre en curso, sin que se espere crecimiento hasta el inicio del próximo año.

En su batalla por apoyar una economía devastada por una crisis de deuda que ya se extiende por dos años y medio, se espera que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) recorte las tasas de interés a un nuevo mínimo de un 0,5 por ciento, ya sea el jueves o el próximo mes.

La inflación en el bloque subió más de lo esperado en agosto, según datos divulgados el viernes, un factor que podría desalentar el BCE a actuar esta semana, pero la encuesta PMI mostró que las fábricas habían reducido los precios de sus productos por tercer mes consecutivo.

El índice de precios de producción cayó desde una lectura rápida de 48,9 a 48,6, pero se ubicó por encima del 48,3 de julio. Los costos de los insumos de las fábricas también cayeron por tercer mes.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor jonibol » Lun Sep 03, 2012 9:11 am

Metales subiendo, pese a malos datos de China y Europa, por la especulación de nuevas medidas de estímulo
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 10:51 am

Happy Labor Day. Feliz dia del trabajo.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor jonibol » Lun Sep 03, 2012 11:00 am

Feliz día
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 11:06 am

Gracias.
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 03, 2012 11:16 am

Los commodities le ganaron al stock market, a los bonos y al dolar por segundo mes consecutivo en Agosto por la especulacion que se daran mas rescates para ayudar a las economias.

El retorno del indice de los 24 commodities subio 6.4% en Agusto liderado por la plata, la cocoa y el heating oil. El indice de las acciones mundiales subieron 1.9%, este es el tercer avance consecutivo. El indice del dolar cayo 1.7%, los bonos subieron 0.2% en promedio, liderados por las naciones mas endeudadas.

El petroleo ha subido 19% en 3 meses, soybeans 14% y corn 13%.

Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds for Second Month in August
By Maria Kolesnikova, Rita Nazareth, Ye Xie and John Detrixhe - Sep 3, 2012 8:18 AM ET .Facebook Share LinkedIn Google +1 COMMENTS
Print QUEUE..Commodities beat equities, bonds and the dollar for a second consecutive month, the longest streak in more than a year, on mounting speculation policy makers will seek to rescue their economies.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities rose 6.4 percent in August, led by silver, cocoa and heating oil. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 1.9 percent for a third straight advance, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure against six currencies, dropped 1.7 percent. Bonds of all types returned 0.2 percent on average, led by Europe’s most indebted nations, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index.

Oil will advance 19 percent to $115 a barrel in three months, soybeans 14 percent to $20 a bushel and corn 13 percent to $9 a bushel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Aug. 13.

Gains in riskier assets show investors expect policy makers will succeed in bolstering growth. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are already holding borrowing costs at a record low, and more than two-dozen nations cut market interest rates this year. China has slowed for six quarters, the 17- nation euro area is contracting, and consumer confidence in the U.S. fell the most in 10 months in August.

“The market has clearly already taken a very sanguine view,” said Bill O’Neill, the London-based chief investment officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, which oversees more than $1.8 trillion of assets. “The dollar has been weaker, and that’s one of the reasons why commodities are propelled higher. Part of it has been the easing expectations, and the conviction that the Fed would do something aggressive in early September.”

Bull Market
Raw materials entered a bull market last month after rising more than 20 percent since mid-June, erasing this year’s losses. They last beat every other asset for two months in March and April 2011. Commodities rose more than 80 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing.

Silver futures added 13 percent last month, the most since January, as holdings through exchange-traded products advanced for a fourth month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors buy silver both as a hedge against inflation and as a bet on a stronger economy because 53 percent is used in industrial applications from televisions to batteries. Futures for delivery in December rose 1.3 percent today to $31.85 an ounce.

Midwest Drought
Heating oil rose 12 percent. July was the hottest month in the lower 48 states in records going back a century. The worst U.S. Midwest drought since 1936 is hurting crops in the biggest agricultural exporter, driving corn and soybean prices to records. Cotton jumped 8.3 percent, the most since February 2011, and cattle futures advanced 1.3 percent. All 105 counties in Kansas, the biggest grower of winter wheat, have been declared federal disaster areas.

Crude traded in New York rose 9.6 percent, the most since October, on increasing concern about supply after the European Union began sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Production in OPEC’s second-largest member fell 11 percent in August, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes and not weapon development, threatened to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for about 20 percent of the world’s oil. Oil for October delivery dropped 0.1 percent today to $96.34 a barrel.

Goldman’s Forecasts
Oil will advance 19 percent to $115 a barrel in three months, soybeans 14 percent to $20 a bushel and corn 13 percent to $9 a bushel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Aug. 13. The bank predicted a month earlier that the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index would gain 27 percent in a year, with the best returns in energy and industrial and precious metals.

Gasoline futures added 6.6 percent, reaching a four-month high Aug. 27. The cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gas at U.S. pumps was $3.827 on Aug. 31, from $3.521 a month earlier, according to the American Automobile Association.

Hedge funds are holding close to their biggest bet on rising raw-material prices since May 2011, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Open interest, or outstanding futures contracts, across the 24 members of the S&P GSCI rose 1.5 percent last month, the most since March, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Central Bankers
While declining supplies of crops and crude helped lift commodities, prices also rose on optimism demand will strengthen as policy makers bolster growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said Aug. 2 the central bank may buy bonds of distressed euro-area nations should they ask for aid from the region’s bailout fund. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told central bankers and economists meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 31 that he would not rule out further bond purchases to boost growth.

Almost $3.6 trillion has been added to the value of global equities since the beginning of June, as 71 percent of the members of the S&P 500 Index reported quarterly earnings that beat analyst expectations.

Companies that are most-dependent on economic growth led the gains in the MSCI index. Consumer discretionary, technology, energy and financial shares added at least 2.5 percent. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), the world’s biggest maker of computer-networking equipment, soared 20 percent as profit and sales topped estimates. Bankia SA and Mediobanca SpA surged at least 33 percent to pace advances in European lenders.

‘Positive Surprises’
“You’ve had a risk-on trade,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $170 billion. “There were expectations the ECB would soon be able to buy bonds and that the Fed would announce another round of quantitative easing. On top of that, people recognize that even though earnings weren’t as robust as they hoped, we’ve had positive surprises.”

Strategists say the best is over for the S&P 500, which added 2 percent last month, and are forecasting a 0.8 percent drop to 1,396 by the end of the year, according to the average of 14 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.9 percent last month, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent.

Diminishing demand for the safest assets caused the dollar to depreciate in August amid mounting optimism the ECB will be able to contain Europe’s debt crisis. Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against six major U.S. trading partners, erased the previous month’s 1.2 percent gain. The gauge will average 83 in the fourth quarter, 2.2 percent higher than now, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Average Yields
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index extended a 1.4 percent gain in July. The gauge, tracking some 19,600 securities with a market value of about $44 trillion, rose 4.4 percent this year. Average yields fell to 1.7 percent, from 2.24 percent at the end of 2011.

The index rose as investors sought the riskiest securities, with those of Europe’s biggest debtors leading the gains after Draghi said July 26 he would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Greek bonds were the best performers among the 26 sovereign markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies, rising 16 percent. Portugal was second, with an 11 percent gain. Italy’s returned 4.9 percent and Spain’s 3.9 percent.

Treasuries lost 0.1 percent, their biggest decline since June, Bank of America index data show. Yields on the 10-year securities climbed 16 basis points, the second month the interest rate increased. Yields will average 1.71 percent in the third quarter, from 1.62 percent now, according to the Bloomberg weighted average compiled from 80 analyst estimates.

Fifth Advance
Investment-grade corporate debt rose 0.6 percent in August, for a fifth consecutive monthly gain, while an index of high- yield bonds advanced 1.6 percent. Speculative-grade debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and less than BBB- at Standard & Poor’s.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index (MXEF) of stocks fell 0.5 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.7 percent, reaching the lowest since February 2009 on Aug. 30. China’s slowing economy prompted the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates in June and July for the first time since 2008. It has lowered banks’ reserve requirements three times starting in November.

“The market is in a waiting pattern right now,” said Steffen Reichold, an emerging-market economist at Stone Harbor Investment Partners in New York. “No one is really trying to put on big positions.”

Financial System
The benchmark Vietnamese stock index fell 4.5 percent after Nguyen Duc Kien, a founder of Asia Commercial Bank, the nation’s fourth-biggest lender by market value, was detained for what the central bank called conducting “business illegally.” That raised concern among investors about the stability of the nation’s financial system.

Dollar-denominated emerging-market government bonds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. returned 1.2 percent for the month as investors sought alternatives to record-low yields in the U.S. and Germany. Emerging-market local currency bonds dropped 0.1 percent in dollar terms, according to JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified Index.

Belize’s $544 million bonds due in 2029 lost 26 percent in August, the biggest loser among emerging-market government debt, as the Central American country defaulted by missing a coupon payment Aug. 20.

Colombia’s peso declined 1.7 percent, the most among emerging market currencies, as the government bought dollars to weaken the foreign-exchange rate in a bid to spur exports. Central banks from China to Uruguay are also taking measures to weaken their currencies to make their exports cheaper and stimulate their economies.

“The real world is just chopping along and getting by, and that’s about all you can hope for,” said Doug King, the London- based co-founder of the Merchant Commodity Fund, which oversees about $450 million of assets. “A lot of people have a watching brief until we get more facts on the macro picture. There is a risk the market gets disappointed in macro news and there’s a rush to the exit.”



Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds for Second Month in August
By Maria Kolesnikova, Rita Nazareth, Ye Xie and John Detrixhe - Sep 3, 2012 8:18 AM ET

Commodities beat equities, bonds and the dollar for a second consecutive month, the longest streak in more than a year, on mounting speculation policy makers will seek to rescue their economies.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities rose 6.4 percent in August, led by silver, cocoa and heating oil. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 1.9 percent for a third straight advance, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure against six currencies, dropped 1.7 percent. Bonds of all types returned 0.2 percent on average, led by Europe’s most indebted nations, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index.

Oil will advance 19 percent to $115 a barrel in three months, soybeans 14 percent to $20 a bushel and corn 13 percent to $9 a bushel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Aug. 13. Photographer: Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
Gains in riskier assets show investors expect policy makers will succeed in bolstering growth. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are already holding borrowing costs at a record low, and more than two-dozen nations cut market interest rates this year. China has slowed for six quarters, the 17- nation euro area is contracting, and consumer confidence in the U.S. fell the most in 10 months in August.

“The market has clearly already taken a very sanguine view,” said Bill O’Neill, the London-based chief investment officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, which oversees more than $1.8 trillion of assets. “The dollar has been weaker, and that’s one of the reasons why commodities are propelled higher. Part of it has been the easing expectations, and the conviction that the Fed would do something aggressive in early September.”

Bull Market
Raw materials entered a bull market last month after rising more than 20 percent since mid-June, erasing this year’s losses. They last beat every other asset for two months in March and April 2011. Commodities rose more than 80 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing.

Silver futures added 13 percent last month, the most since January, as holdings through exchange-traded products advanced for a fourth month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors buy silver both as a hedge against inflation and as a bet on a stronger economy because 53 percent is used in industrial applications from televisions to batteries. Futures for delivery in December rose 1.3 percent today to $31.85 an ounce.

Midwest Drought
Heating oil rose 12 percent. July was the hottest month in the lower 48 states in records going back a century. The worst U.S. Midwest drought since 1936 is hurting crops in the biggest agricultural exporter, driving corn and soybean prices to records. Cotton jumped 8.3 percent, the most since February 2011, and cattle futures advanced 1.3 percent. All 105 counties in Kansas, the biggest grower of winter wheat, have been declared federal disaster areas.

Crude traded in New York rose 9.6 percent, the most since October, on increasing concern about supply after the European Union began sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Production in OPEC’s second-largest member fell 11 percent in August, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes and not weapon development, threatened to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for about 20 percent of the world’s oil. Oil for October delivery dropped 0.1 percent today to $96.34 a barrel.

Goldman’s Forecasts
Oil will advance 19 percent to $115 a barrel in three months, soybeans 14 percent to $20 a bushel and corn 13 percent to $9 a bushel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Aug. 13. The bank predicted a month earlier that the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index would gain 27 percent in a year, with the best returns in energy and industrial and precious metals.

Gasoline futures added 6.6 percent, reaching a four-month high Aug. 27. The cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gas at U.S. pumps was $3.827 on Aug. 31, from $3.521 a month earlier, according to the American Automobile Association.

Hedge funds are holding close to their biggest bet on rising raw-material prices since May 2011, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Open interest, or outstanding futures contracts, across the 24 members of the S&P GSCI rose 1.5 percent last month, the most since March, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Central Bankers
While declining supplies of crops and crude helped lift commodities, prices also rose on optimism demand will strengthen as policy makers bolster growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said Aug. 2 the central bank may buy bonds of distressed euro-area nations should they ask for aid from the region’s bailout fund. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told central bankers and economists meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 31 that he would not rule out further bond purchases to boost growth.

Almost $3.6 trillion has been added to the value of global equities since the beginning of June, as 71 percent of the members of the S&P 500 Index reported quarterly earnings that beat analyst expectations.

Companies that are most-dependent on economic growth led the gains in the MSCI index. Consumer discretionary, technology, energy and financial shares added at least 2.5 percent. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), the world’s biggest maker of computer-networking equipment, soared 20 percent as profit and sales topped estimates. Bankia SA and Mediobanca SpA surged at least 33 percent to pace advances in European lenders.

‘Positive Surprises’
“You’ve had a risk-on trade,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $170 billion. “There were expectations the ECB would soon be able to buy bonds and that the Fed would announce another round of quantitative easing. On top of that, people recognize that even though earnings weren’t as robust as they hoped, we’ve had positive surprises.”

Strategists say the best is over for the S&P 500, which added 2 percent last month, and are forecasting a 0.8 percent drop to 1,396 by the end of the year, according to the average of 14 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.9 percent last month, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent.

Diminishing demand for the safest assets caused the dollar to depreciate in August amid mounting optimism the ECB will be able to contain Europe’s debt crisis. Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against six major U.S. trading partners, erased the previous month’s 1.2 percent gain. The gauge will average 83 in the fourth quarter, 2.2 percent higher than now, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Average Yields
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index extended a 1.4 percent gain in July. The gauge, tracking some 19,600 securities with a market value of about $44 trillion, rose 4.4 percent this year. Average yields fell to 1.7 percent, from 2.24 percent at the end of 2011.

The index rose as investors sought the riskiest securities, with those of Europe’s biggest debtors leading the gains after Draghi said July 26 he would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Greek bonds were the best performers among the 26 sovereign markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies, rising 16 percent. Portugal was second, with an 11 percent gain. Italy’s returned 4.9 percent and Spain’s 3.9 percent.

Treasuries lost 0.1 percent, their biggest decline since June, Bank of America index data show. Yields on the 10-year securities climbed 16 basis points, the second month the interest rate increased. Yields will average 1.71 percent in the third quarter, from 1.62 percent now, according to the Bloomberg weighted average compiled from 80 analyst estimates.

Fifth Advance
Investment-grade corporate debt rose 0.6 percent in August, for a fifth consecutive monthly gain, while an index of high- yield bonds advanced 1.6 percent. Speculative-grade debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and less than BBB- at Standard & Poor’s.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index (MXEF) of stocks fell 0.5 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.7 percent, reaching the lowest since February 2009 on Aug. 30. China’s slowing economy prompted the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates in June and July for the first time since 2008. It has lowered banks’ reserve requirements three times starting in November.

“The market is in a waiting pattern right now,” said Steffen Reichold, an emerging-market economist at Stone Harbor Investment Partners in New York. “No one is really trying to put on big positions.”

Financial System
The benchmark Vietnamese stock index fell 4.5 percent after Nguyen Duc Kien, a founder of Asia Commercial Bank, the nation’s fourth-biggest lender by market value, was detained for what the central bank called conducting “business illegally.” That raised concern among investors about the stability of the nation’s financial system.

Dollar-denominated emerging-market government bonds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. returned 1.2 percent for the month as investors sought alternatives to record-low yields in the U.S. and Germany. Emerging-market local currency bonds dropped 0.1 percent in dollar terms, according to JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified Index.

Belize’s $544 million bonds due in 2029 lost 26 percent in August, the biggest loser among emerging-market government debt, as the Central American country defaulted by missing a coupon payment Aug. 20.

Colombia’s peso declined 1.7 percent, the most among emerging market currencies, as the government bought dollars to weaken the foreign-exchange rate in a bid to spur exports. Central banks from China to Uruguay are also taking measures to weaken their currencies to make their exports cheaper and stimulate their economies.

“The real world is just chopping along and getting by, and that’s about all you can hope for,” said Doug King, the London- based co-founder of the Merchant Commodity Fund, which oversees about $450 million of assets. “A lot of people have a watching brief until we get more facts on the macro picture. There is a risk the market gets disappointed in macro news and there’s a rush to the exit.”
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Re: Lunes 03/09/12 Semana del empleo.

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Argentina
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Buenos Aires Stock Exchange Merval Index 2,406.44 -1.94 -0.08% 11:54:33
Buenos Aires Stock Exchange BURCAP Index 8,573.03 -14.61 -0.17% 11:54:33
Merval Argentina Index 1,610.84 -4.91 -0.30% 11:54:33
Indice Bolsa General BOLSA-G 147,592.10 -133.80 -0.09% 11:54:33

BermudaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
Bermuda Stock Exchange Index 1,071.60 +6.00 +0.56% 08/31/2012

Brazil
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Bovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index 57,132.42 +70.97 +0.12% 12:00:30
Sao Paulo Stock Exchange IBrX Index 20,451.38 +54.29 +0.27% 12:01:30
Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Electrical Energy Index 33,036.74 +230.85 +0.70% 12:01:30
Bovespa Telecommunications Sector Index - -
Bovespa Exchange Shares With Differentiated Corporate Governance Index 7,277.18 +30.22 +0.42% 12:01:30
Bovespa Valor Second Line Index 6,578.01 +37.84 +0.58% 12:01:30
Sao Paulo Stock Exchange 50 Index 8,418.66 +15.16 +0.18% 12:01:30

Canada
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
S&P/TSX Composite Index 11,949.26 +62.61 +0.53% 08/31/2012
S&P/TSX Equity Index 12,276.78 +65.19 +0.53% 08/31/2012
S&P/TSX 60 Index 683.47 +2.29 +0.34% 08/31/2012
S&P 500/Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Composite Index 1,240.74 +22.78 +1.87% 08/31/2012

Chile
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Santiago Stock Exchange IPSA Index 4,131.24 -24.44 -0.59% 12:00:06
Santiago Stock Exchange IGPA Index 20,071.81 -104.50 -0.52% 12:16:26
Chile Inter-10 Index 5,290.72 -24.30 -0.46% 12:00:06
Chile 65 Index 2,943.54 -3.59 -0.12% 11:06:36
Chile Large Cap Index 2,809.19 -4.04 -0.14% 11:06:37
Chile Small Cap Index 3,879.06 +0.88 +0.02% 10:40:33

ColombiaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
Colombia COLCAP Index 1,659.72 -8.78 -0.53% 11:53:14
Columbia COL20 Index 1,353.76 -0.08 -0.01% 11:45:30
Indice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia 14,064.45 -24.07 -0.17% 11:53:32

Costa RicaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
BCT Corp Costa Rica Stock Market Index 16,009.74 +11.70 +0.07% 08/31/2012

JamaicaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index 86,397.32 +437.19 +0.51% 11:50:12

Mexico
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index 39,669.47 +247.82 +0.63% 11:56:30
Mexican Stock Exchange INMEX Index 2,191.19 +21.14 +0.97% 11:56:30
Mexican Stock Exchange IMC 30 Index 463.72 +2.97 +0.64% 11:56:37
Mexican Stock Exchange Total Return Index 48,097.32 +300.47 +0.63% 11:56:30

PanamaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
Bolsa de Valores de Panama General Index 387.54 -0.09 -0.02% 08/31/2012

Peru
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Bolsa de Valores de Lima General Sector Index 20,280.65 -31.01 -0.15% 11:55:53
Bolsa de Valores de Lima Selective Sector Index 29,456.29 -40.91 -0.14% 11:24:03

VenezuelaIndex Name Value Change % Change Time
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index 288,035.80 +35.80 +0.01% 11:57:49
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