Viernes 07/09/12 Situacion del empleo

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Viernes

La situacion del empleo

Cuantos empleos se crearon en Agosto y cual es el nivel del desempleo.
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3:00 PM ET

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Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 1/32 0.267
10-Year Note 1/32 1.679
* at close

8:07 p.m. EDT 09/06/12Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.76 -0.77 95.53
Gold 1701.4 -4.2 1705.6
E-mini Dow 13281 6 13275
E-mini S&P 500 1431.50 0.50 1431.00

8:17 p.m. EDT 09/06/12Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.88 78.86
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2638 1.2631
† Late New York trading.

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La industria de la musica y el entretenimiento tiene que estar tembrando, AAPL planea meterse en todo, anunciaron que crearan un sistema parecido al de Pandora, que permitira escuchar musica. Estan consiguiendo la licencia.

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Se espera una creacion de empleos del orden de los 125,000. El desempleo debe quedar igual en 8.3%

Produccion industrial de Gran Bretana y Alemania.
Reporta Lululemon

Tomorrow’s Tape: It’s Payrolls Day

By Paul Vigna
Economics

Just one data point tomorrow, but it’s a biggie. We will be live-blogging it, as always, so set your clocks and don’t miss it.

U.S.:

August nonfarm payrolls (8:30): seen rising 125,000, with unemployment rate flat at 8.3%.

Overseas:

Great Britain: industrial production and producer prices (both at 4:30 a.m. ET).

Germany: industrial production (6:00 a.m. ET).

Earnings

Lululemon, Brady Kroger KR +2.39%

[admin]

Oil down 94.61

Brent Down 112.67

El Nikkei +2.05%, Korea +2.16%, Australia +0.88%

Yen up 78,.86

Los futures del Dow Jones 5 puntos al alza.

Au down 1,694.75

Euro up 1.2630

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En el mejor de los casos Espana e Italia ganan tiempo para hacer reformas

En Julio Draghi dijo que haria lo que fuera necesario para mantener unida a la zona euro. Se especulaba que las medidas iban a ser una compra de bonos tipo bazooka para hacer bajar los yields de Espana e Italia.

El plan de compra anunciado por Draghi es un plan tipo bazooka mediana, a pesar de la insistencia de que es solamente politica monetaria que sera puesta a trabajar. En terminos practicos esta medida es otro paso gigantesco para alcanzar la unidad fiscal. Esto esta muy lejos de la idea original de la creacion del euro, y la consecuencia es que se ha comprometido la independencia del Banco Central.

Ahora el ECB esta listo para comprar bonos soberanos con madurez de hasta tres anios, pero solo si los gobiernos han hecho un pedido de rescate parcial o total o de una linea de credito del fondo de rescate europeo.

Draghi anuncio que la compra de bonos sera estirilizada para evitar la inflacion.

Esta medida le da tiempo a Espana e Italia a aplicar reformas laborales, impuestos,etc. reformas necesarias para que estos paises puedan volver a crecer. En el peor de los casos, esta medida es solo para salvar el dia y no se haran reformas, lamentablemente las economias no creceran y seguiran perdiendo competitividad global. Tememos que esa sea el escenario mas seguro.

-----------------

The ECB Wades In Deeper
At best, Italy and Spain get more time to reform

Mario Draghi laid out the European Central Bank's latest bond-buying venture Thursday, and we suppose the good news is that it isn't as sweeping as it might have been.

In July the ECB President said the central bank would do "whatever it takes" to keep the euro zone together. Speculation has since been rife that Mr. Draghi was preparing a bond-buying bazooka to bring down the yields of Spanish and Italian government bonds.

The Outright Monetary Transactions program that Mr. Draghi announced Thursday amounts to a moderate-sized bazooka, despite Mr. Draghi's insistence that it is merely about making monetary policy work. In practical terms these transactions are another giant step into fiscal policy. This is far from the original vision of the euro, and the costs to the central bank's political independence will be steep.

The ECB now stands ready to buy sovereign bonds at maturities out to three years—but only if the governments have applied for either a full bailout or a "precautionary" credit line from the EU's bailout funds.

The idea of a precautionary line of credit from the European Financial Stability Facility or the European Stability Mechanism—the two main sources of bailout funds—was floated more than a year ago. But so far it's never been used, perhaps out of fear that even asking for one would send bond yields soaring.

The credit lines still come with conditions attached, but they're supposed to be less stringent. One of the things to watch will be whether Spain or Italy seeks a credit line to open the door for the ECB to start buying their debt.

Mr. Draghi said any bond purchases under the new program will be sterilized to reduce the risk of inflation from open-ended bond purchases. That's to the good. But if the ECB does start buying government bonds, it will expose itself again to credit risk on those bonds. In Greece's restructuring, the ECB cut a side deal to save itself from losses. Under the new program it is explicitly disavowing that possibility so it doesn't make private bondholders even more nervous. That means more risk for the central bank, and by extension taxpayers in countries like Germany.

Markets seem to like the ECB's move because it reduces the near-term risks of a euro breakup. No doubt German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also happy with Mr. Draghi—whether she'll say it or not—because it offers at least the hope of avoiding a new market crisis through her election next year. Mario Monti in Italy and Spain's Mariano Rajoy have lobbied hard for the ECB to act, and their reward has been to see their sovereign bond yields fall in anticipation of the program and again on Thursday.

At best, the new program will give Messrs. Monti and Rajoy more time to promote the reforms in labor markets, taxation and other things their countries so desperately need to grow again. At worst, the prospect of the central bank saving the day will merely ease the pressure for reform. In that case, non-Northern Europe's central problem of slow growth and declining global competitiveness will continue. We hope for the former but history suggests we should anticipate the latter.

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El Bundesbank se opuso a la compra de bonos por parte del ECB, ademas la Corte Alemana decidira la constitucionalidad del fondo de rescate. Estos son dos riesgos mas para el mercado.

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Copper September 06,21:59
Bid/Ask 3.4829 - 3.4846
Change +0.0031 +0.09%
Low/High 3.4716 - 3.4869
Charts

Nickel September 06,21:59
Bid/Ask 7.3051 - 7.3128
Change +0.0045 +0.06%
Low/High 7.2638 - 7.3269
Charts

Aluminum September 06,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.8707 - 0.8711
Change -0.0016 -0.18%
Low/High 0.8701 - 0.8755
Charts

Zinc September 06,21:58
Bid/Ask 0.8475 - 0.8478
Change -0.0044 -0.52%
Low/High 0.8475 - 0.8538
Charts

Lead September 06,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.9233 - 0.9244
Change -0.0019 -0.21%
Low/High 0.9224 - 0.9309
Charts

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10:11 p.m. EDT 09/06/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   1/32 0.267
10-Year Note   1/32 1.678
* at close
10:03 p.m. EDT 09/06/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.88 -0.65 95.53
Gold 1698.1 -7.5 1705.6
E-mini Dow 13282 7 13275
E-mini S&P 500 1431.50 0.50 1431.00
10:13 p.m. EDT 09/06/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.91 78.86
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2631 1.2631
† Late New York trading.

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Asia-Pacific
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Nikkei 225 8,825.56 +144.99 +1.67% 21:54:45
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 19,531.56 +322.26 +1.68% 22:00:15
S&P/ASX 200 4,333.30 +26.01 +0.60% 21:54:37

[admin]

Los traders estan mas bullish en 11 meses con el cobre debido a los estimulos.

Copper Trade Most Bullish Since October on Stimulus: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin - Sep 6, 2012 7:01 PM ET

Copper traders are the most bullish in almost 11 months on mounting speculation central banks will do more to bolster growth, strengthening demand for metals.
Twenty-one analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect prices to gain next week and five were bearish. A further four were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Oct. 14. Hedge funds are betting on higher prices for the first time since May and stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange, the largest metals bourse, dropped to the lowest level in almost four years.
Commodities, which entered a bull market last month, may rise another 10 percent, Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview. The European Central Bank yesterday held interest rates at a record low and President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged in an Aug. 31 speech to promote growth with “additional policy accommodation as needed.”
“It’s really expectations of what the next round of initiatives will do for global growth,” said Carole Ferguson, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London. “It’s a good indicator of industrial activity. If there’s any recovery in demand, copper should go up quite a lot.”
Copper Prices
Copper rose 1.3 percent to $7,699 a metric ton this year on the LME after a 21 percent slump last year. Prices tripled as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011. The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities gained 7.3 percent since the start of January and the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities added 4.5 percent. Treasuries returned 2.5 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Speculators held a net-long position, or bet on higher prices, of 3,260 futures and options as of Aug. 28, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They had wagered on price declines for the previous 14 weeks. Inventories tracked by the LME plunged 43 percent this year, sliding to 213,225 tons yesterday, the lowest since October 2008.
Prices will advance to $9,000 by the end of this year, Goldman’s Currie said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Singapore yesterday. The bank told investors to increase commodities holdings in June and a month later forecast a 27 percent gain in 12 months.
Central Banks
Bernanke said at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that “nontraditional policies” shouldn’t be ruled out to boost growth and reduce unemployment. Policy makers next meet Sept. 12-13. Draghi pledged more than a month ago to do what’s needed to preserve the single currency.
Barclays Plc expects demand to outpace supply in the first half of next year before a glut emerges in the second half as output climbs and consumption growth weakens.
China’s government lowered its 2012 industrial output growth target to 10 percent on Sept. 5 from a December goal of 11 percent. The nation’s economy has slowed for six quarters. It consumes about 40 percent of all copper, Europe accounts for 18 percent and North America 11 percent, Barclays estimates.
Central bank action may not be enough to stave off slowing global growth that will crimp demand for commodities including copper, according to James Dailey, who manages $215 million at TEAM Financial Asset Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The 17-nation euro area is contracting, and consumer confidence in the U.S. fell the most in 10 months in August.
Gold Holdings
Copper rallied 16 percent since reaching a 14-month low of $6,635 in October. Prices probably won’t fall below $3 a pound, or $6,614 a ton, as Chinese demand grows and mine expansions are delayed, according to Thomas Keller, the chief executive officer of Codelco, the world’s biggest producer. Demand will match or exceed supply, he said in an Aug. 31 presentation in Santiago.
In other commodities, 21 of 31 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said gold would climb next week and seven were bearish. Futures on the Comex exchange in New York rose 8.7 percent to $1,703.50 an ounce since the start of January, extending 11 consecutive annual gains. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products reached a record 2,470.7 tons on Sept. 5, valued at $135.3 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Seven of 11 people surveyed expect raw sugar to drop next week and two predicted gains. The sweetener slid 18 percent to 19.04 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.
Crop Prices
Twelve of 27 people surveyed anticipate higher corn prices next week and the same amount said the grain will decline, while 17 of 27 said soybeans will rally and eight expect lower prices. Corn rose 23 percent to $7.9425 a bushel this year as soybeans advanced 44 percent to $17.435 a bushel in Chicago. Both crops surged to records in the past month as the U.S. endured its worst drought in more than 50 years.
Global food prices were little changed last month after the biggest jump since 2009 in July, according to a United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization index. The S&P GSCI gauge of raw materials entered a bull market on Aug. 21, climbing more than 20 percent from this year’s lowest close on June 21.
“We could move marginally higher for most of the commodities on the back of monetary easing that we are likely to see in Europe and the U.S.,” Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank Plc, said from Johannesburg. “Gold and silver will be the biggest beneficiaries. Brent crude might benefit from it, too, and, to a lesser extent, base metals.”
Gold survey results: Bullish: 21 Bearish: 7 Hold: 3
Copper survey results: Bullish: 21 Bearish: 5 Hold: 4
Corn survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 12 Hold: 3
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 17 Bearish: 8 Hold: 2
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 7 Hold: 2
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 7 Hold: 2
White sugar premium results: Widen: 2 Narrow: 0 Neutral: 9

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7:49 a.m. EDT 09/07/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   0/32 0.271
10-Year Note   -14/32 1.728
* at close
7:39 a.m. EDT 09/07/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.16 0.63 95.53
Gold 1698.0 -7.6 1705.6
E-mini Dow 13318 43 13275
E-mini S&P 500 1436.75 5.75 1431.00
7:49 a.m. EDT 09/07/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.93 78.86
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2708 1.2631
† Late New York trading.

[admin]

Copper September 07,07:39
Bid/Ask 3.5492 - 3.5502
Change +0.0694 +1.99%
Low/High 3.4716 - 3.5574
Charts

Nickel September 07,07:39
Bid/Ask 7.4063 - 7.4090
Change +0.1057 +1.45%
Low/High 7.2638 - 7.4598
Charts

Aluminum September 07,07:38
Bid/Ask 0.8829 - 0.8832
Change +0.0105 +1.21%
Low/High 0.8697 - 0.8832
Charts

Zinc September 07,07:39
Bid/Ask 0.8689 - 0.8695
Change +0.0170 +2.00%
Low/High 0.8448 - 0.8695
Charts

Lead September 07,07:39
Bid/Ask 0.9377 - 0.9381
Change +0.0125 +1.35%
Low/High 0.9206 - 0.9381
Charts

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Europe, Africa, Middle East
EURO STOXX 50 PRICE EUR 2,560.42 +35.47
(1.40%) 07:36
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,796.68 +19.34
(0.33%) 07:36
CAC 40 INDEX 3,555.99 +46.11
(1.31%) 07:36
All Europe, Africa, Middle East Indexes
European News
Asia-Pacific
NIKKEI 225 8,871.65 +191.08
(2.20%) 02:28
HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX 19,802.16 +592.85
(3.09%) 04:01
S&​P/​ASX 200 4,325.84 +12.95
(0.30%) 02:20

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Producción industrial alemana sube imprevistamente en julio
viernes 7 de septiembre de 2012 07:40 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
BERLIN (Reuters) - La producción industrial alemana subió imprevistamente en julio, mostraron el viernes datos del Ministerio de Economía, lo que pone de relieve la continua resistencia de la mayor economía europea a la tormenta de la deuda de la zona euro.

La producción de Alemania ascendió un 1,3 por ciento en julio mientras las fábricas producían un 3,8 por ciento más de bienes de capital y un 2,2 por ciento más de bienes de consumo duradero, al tiempo que la actividad de construcción se incrementó un 1,9 por ciento.

El número principal estuvo bastante arriba del consenso de las previsiones en un sondeo de Reuters entre 44 economistas, que anticipaban un estancamiento en julio, y superó incluso el cálculo más alto, de un alza de un 1,0 por ciento.

"La producción industrial ha repuntado un poco, favorecida por los sectores de manufacturas y construcción", dijo el ministerio en un comunicado.

"Los pedidos industriales siguen estables este año a la fecha. Si bien la confianza es limitada, los sondeos sugieren que mejoró de nuevo ligeramente y esto apunta a que la producción industrial seguirá robusta", añadió.

El dato de junio fue revisado al alza, a una caída de 0,4 por ciento desde una pérdida reportada previamente de 0,9 por ciento.