Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:02 am

Libor down 0.40%
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:05 am

Las importaciones de China bajaron sorpresivamente y la produccion industrial subio en su menor ritmo en tres anios, senialando la necesidad de mas estimulos despues que esa nacion aprobo inversiones en trenes subterraneos y carreteras alrededor del pais.

Las importaciones cayeron 2.6% en Agosto con respecto al anio pasado, mientras las exportaciones crecieron 2.7%, la produccion aumento 8.9%. La inflacion se acelero por primera vez en cinco meses.

China Output Growth Slows as Leadership Handover Looms
By Bloomberg News - Sep 10, 2012 2:07 AM ET

China’s imports unexpectedly fell and industrial output rose the least in three years, signaling more stimulus may be needed after the government last week said it approved subway and road projects across the nation.

Inbound shipments slid 2.6 percent in August from a year earlier as exports rose 2.7 percent, the customs bureau said in Beijing today. Production increased 8.9 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. Inflation accelerated for the first time in five months.

Sany Heavy Industry Co. the nation’s biggest machinery maker, jumped the most since February 2009 and Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s largest cement maker, had its biggest gain since July 2010, on optimism demand for their products will rise.

Sany Heavy Industry Co. the nation’s biggest machinery maker, jumped the most since February 2009 and Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s largest cement maker, had its biggest gain since July 2010, on optimism demand for their products will rise. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
6:23 Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- John-Paul Smith, emerging-markets strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, discusses China's economy and his preference for U.S. equities. He talks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)
.The data underscore risks that full-year growth in the world’s second-biggest economy will slide to the lowest in more than two decades, undermining support for the ruling Communist Party before a once-in-a-decade leadership transition due later this year. The rebound in inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing highlight the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.

“Politicians want a benign backdrop for their party congress gathering and slumping stock prices and a worsening growth slowdown could spoil the party,” said Lu Ting, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. “Putting together the economic fundamentals and the timing of major political events, there will be a second round of policy easing including cuts to banks’ reserve requirements and some fiscal stimulus.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) pared gains of as much as 0.3 percent and was up 0.1 percent as of 2:28 p.m. in Tokyo after plans for European Central Bank bond buying and Chinese investment triggered a global rally last week. President Hu Jintao said Sept. 8 that China’s economy faces “notable downward pressure.”

Japanese Weakness
Japan’s economy expanded in the second quarter at half the pace the government initially estimated, underscoring the risk of a contraction as Europe’s debt crisis caps exports, a government report showed today.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent in the three months through June, less than a preliminary calculation of 1.4 percent. The nation’s current-account surplus fell to 625.4 billion yen ($8 billion) in July, the lowest for that month since 1996, according to a finance ministry report and Bloomberg historical data.

South Korea said it will add 5.9 trillion won ($5.2 billion) of economic support measures including extra spending and tax cuts as exports slow.

In Europe today, final second-quarter numbers will give the latest reading on a shrinking Italian economy, while France may report that industrial production declined in July.

Trade Measures
China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming said measures to support and stabilize trade will be announced soon, China Central Television reported yesterday. He also said trade in the fourth quarter will be better than in the third.

China’s trade surplus was a more-than-estimated $26.7 billion as imports fell for the first time since 2009 outside of the Lunar New Year, today’s report showed. Fixed-asset investment growth in the first eight months eased to 20.2 percent, yesterday’s reports showed.

Exports to the European Union dropped 12.7 percent in August from a year earlier, data showed.

“There is little that Chinese policy makers can do to change the situation of weak external demand,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Import weakness is another indication of domestic demand deceleration.”

Falling Prices
Declining commodity prices also contributed to the drop in imports, Zheng Yuesheng, head of the customs administration’s statistics department, said on state television.

The data put China’s goal of 10 percent trade growth this year further out of reach. Exports gained 7.1 percent in the first eight months of the year, while imports increased 5.1 percent.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV on Sept. 7 cut their forecasts for economic expansion this year to 7.5 percent amid a weakening global outlook and less forceful policy support than they previously expected. That would be the slowest pace since 1990.

ING lowered its estimate for China’s third-quarter growth to 7.1 percent while UBS projects a 7.3 percent pace. The economy expanded 7.6 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, the least in three years and the sixth straight slowdown.

Job Growth
The pace of new job growth in urban areas has been slowing since April and May, Xin Changxing, vice minister of human resources and social security, said at a briefing in Beijing today. “The impact of slowing economic growth on employment is gradually showing up,” Xin said.

Job growth picked up in 22 of China’s provinces in the January-August period compared with a year earlier, while nine showed a deceleration, Xin said.

Shi Yonghong, vice president of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, said the nation faces challenges for export growth in the longer term.

“In the long run, China’s cost advantages are weakening, and the trend is very clear,” Shi said in a Sept. 8 interview at a trade fair in Xiamen. “Labor and resource costs are all rising. Without restructuring or innovation, China’s exports are doomed to stay weak.”

‘Arduous Task’
Speaking to business executives at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostok on Sept. 8, President Hu said China’s small and medium-sized enterprises are having a “hard time” and exporters are facing more difficulties. The government has an “arduous task of creating jobs for new entrants to the labor force.”

Hu also urged governments in the Asia-Pacific region to speed up infrastructure development, describing it as key to promoting recovery and achieving sustained and stable growth amid increasing downward risks to the global economy.

His comments followed a slew of announcements by the Chinese government approving new roads, railways and urban infrastructure that Nomura Holdings Inc. estimates have a combined value of about 1 trillion yuan.

The news drove the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), China’s benchmark stock gauge, 3.7 percent higher on Sept. 7, the biggest gain in eight months. The index had previously dropped 17 percent from this year’s March 2 high as cooling economic growth hurt earnings.

Inflation Accelerates
Sany Heavy Industry Co. (600031) the nation’s biggest machinery maker, on Sept. 7 jumped the most since February 2009 and Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s largest cement maker, had its biggest gain since July 2010, on optimism demand for their products will rise.

Inflation last month accelerated to 2 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said yesterday. The decline in producer prices extended into a sixth month, with a drop of 3.5 percent.

“A renewed inflationary trend could prove to be a further complication to policy makers’ growth-inflation trade-off,” said Glenn Maguire, chief economist at consultant Asia Sentry Advisory in Sydney. “China will have enormous difficulties in crafting a policy response to these divergent price and activity trends.”

The increase in August industrial production was the weakest since May 2009. Power output rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, compared with 2.1 percent in July. Growth in production of rolled steel slumped to 1.4 percent.

‘Weak Data’
Growth in fixed-asset investment excluding rural households in the first eight months was lower than the median estimate of 20.4 percent. Retail sales rose 13.2 percent from a year earlier in August, in line with the median economist estimate.

“Such a weak series of economic activity data should now seriously alert policy makers,” said Liu Li-Gang, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The monetary policy stance will have to become more aggressive in order to arrest the rapidly deteriorating economy.”

Liu said the central bank will need to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio by another 150 basis points this year.

The central bank has held off from monetary policy loosening since July 5 when it cut benchmark interest rates for the second time in less than a month.

Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura, said some leading indicators improved “very significantly” last month, pointing to better property and infrastructure investment in coming months.

“These suggest economic momentum will pick up soon,” said Zhang, who estimates growth will rebound to above 8 percent in the fourth quarter.
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor Luis04 » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:10 am

Libération a Arnault: "¡Vete a la blacklisted_site, rico imbécil!"
elEconomista.es
■"Es un símbolo del egoismo de los más ricos"

Como gasolina al fuego. Así es como ha sentado en el Palacio del Elíseu, residencia del presidente de la República francesa la rebelión fiscal del hombre más rico del país, Bernard Arnault, primer ejecutivo del grupo de empresas del lujo LVMH. La prensa también se ha revuelto y como ejemplo el diario de izquierdas Liberation abre su edición de hoy lunes con una foto de Arnault a toda página y un titular muy claro: "¡Vete a la blacklisted_site, rico imbécil! (Casse-toi rich con!)". Hollande confirma el impuesto a los millonarios: 75% durante dos años.

El diario añade en un apoyo claro: "Incluso si se defiende su exilio por razones fiscales, la petición de nacionalidad belga por parte de Bernard Arnault parece un símbolo del egoismo de los más ricos".

El magnate anunció el pasado fin de semana que ha solicitado la nacionalidad belga, en pleno debate en Francia sobre el incremento de la presión fiscal a las grandes fortunas. Arnault respondió a la revelación hecha en la prensa belga, respecto a la presentación de su petición de nacionalidad en el país vecino, y precisó que mantendrá la francesa y que seguirá siendo residente fiscal en Francia.

En un comunicado del grupo que preside Arnault se confirmó la presentación de la solicitud -el multimillonario, cuya fortuna se estimó en 2011 en unos 41.000 millones de dólares, tiene un domicilio en Bruselas- y al mismo tiempo que pretende continuar con sus negocios en Francia, según informa Efecom.

"La eventual obtención de una doble nacionalidad franco-belga no cambia nada en esa situación (la residencia fiscal) ni en su determinación de continuar con el desarrollo del grupo LVMH y las creaciones de empleo que son consecuencia de ello en Francia", indicó.

Entre las marcas del grupo LVMH están algunas de las del sector del lujo más conocidas del mundo, como las de moda Louis Vuitton y Givenchy; de champán Moët & Chandon y Dom Pérignon; y de perfumería Parfums Christian Dior o Sephora.

Georges Dallemagne, presidente de la comisión de nacionalizaciones de Bélgica, afirmó que el asunto recibirá la tramitación correspondiente, que se sigue actualmente en relación con otras 47.000 demandas presentadas. Arnault posee un domicilio en Bruselas y Dallemagne recordó que para obtener la nacionalidad belga es necesario haber residido en el país tres años o demostrar "conexiones verdaderas" con Bélgica.
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:23 am

Saudi Arabia preocupada por que el precio del petroleo ha subido sin que se haya disminuido la produccion. El alza no obedece a sus fundamentos, la oferta y la demanda esta bien balanceada y los inventarios son mas que adecuados.

Brent el oil mas usado en el mundo ha subido 29% desde su punto mas bajo en Junio.

Saudi Arabia Concerned About Rising Crude Prices
By SUMMER SAID
CAIRO—The world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is concerned about rising oil prices given that they aren't being caused by supply shortages, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Monday.

"The current high price of oil is simply not supported by market fundamentals. The market is well balanced, forward cover remains within an acceptable range and inventories are more than adequate," Mr. Naimi said in an emailed statement.

"Saudi Arabia will, as always, take all necessary steps to ensure the market is well supplied and to help moderate prices—and we will meet any additional demand from our customers."

The Brent oil contract—the most widely used globally—has bounced back by 29% from a 2012 low of $89 a barrel on June 21.

This is the first time Mr. Naimi has spoken publicly since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in June agreed to maintain its existing oil-production ceiling and pledged to rein in overproduction, after some members complained that a glut of oil caused by higher output from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries could lead to a price crash.

Mr. Naimi has previously said he considered $100 a barrel to be the ideal price for Brent to balance the needs of consumers and producers. He stressed Monday that the Arab world's largest economy will continue to work with other Gulf countries and OPEC to defend the stability of the oil market.

Saudi Arabia produced about 9.7 million barrels a day of crude in August, down from 9.8 million barrels a day in July, slightly below its average production levels of 9.94 million barrels a day in the first half of 2012.

But the kingdom is likely to pump more crude than it supplies to the market in the fourth quarter, leading to further accumulation of stocks.

Analysts have said the Gulf state is on track to surpass its record oil output this year, offsetting a decline from Iran because of international sanctions, despite pressure from other oil exporters to cut back and help bolster world oil prices.

High Saudi output helps keep oil prices down, benefiting fragile economies in the U.S. and Europe, which rely on the kingdom to help keep up supply as they implement sanctions intended to press Iran over its nuclear program.

Other Gulf countries have also increased their output in recent months following calls by the U.S. and other governments to make up for displaced Iranian barrels in anticipation of sanctions.
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:24 am

C +0.25%

ERX -0.51%

EDC +1.11%

RIO +1.67%

EGO -0.34%

PAAS +0.05%

AAPL -0.02%

FAS +0.03%

USO -0.81%

AIG -2.03%

F -0.10%

AA -0.22%

FB +0.68%
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:34 am

-25.79
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:38 am

Au down 1,733

-16.61

Telecom a la baja.

Euro down 1.2781

Oil down 95.73
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:44 am

VIX up 14.39

-35.22
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 8:48 am

-26.86
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 9:08 am

Ag down 33.64

Euro down 1.2782

Oil down 95.79

-13.74
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 9:10 am

Chicago es la ciudad mas violenta de US, o una de las mas violentas, el crimen ha subido 38%, el alcalde de la ciudad salio a decirle a los criminales que no se maten a ninios inocentes. Increible.

Ahora, los profesores se van a la lengua.

Esa es la ciudad de Al Capone y de Obama.
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 9:11 am

SCCO +0.84%

BVN +0.41%

EPU +0.43%

BAP +0.02%

C +1.53%

ERX +1.57%

EDC -1.29%

EGO -1.57%

FAS +0.02%


FB -1.84%

JPM +0.94%

EEM -0.43%
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 9:59 am

10:57 a.m. EDT 09/10/12Major Stock Indexes
  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 13309.77 3.13 0.02
Nasdaq 3121.15 -15.27 -0.49
S&P 500 1437.05 -0.87 -0.06
DJ Total Stock Market 14984.54 -12.76 -0.09
Russell 2000 840.65 -1.62 -0.19
Global Dow 1928.43 0.31 0.02
Japan: Nikkei Average* 8869.37 -2.28 -0.03
Stoxx Europe 600 272.01 -0.29 -0.11
UK: FTSE 100 5802.19 7.39 0.13
Get this by E-mail * at close
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor admin » Lun Sep 10, 2012 10:00 am

10:56 a.m. EDT 09/10/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   0/32 0.263
10-Year Note   -0/32 1.674
* at close
10:47 a.m. EDT 09/10/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.40 -0.02 96.42
Gold 1734.5 -6.0 1740.5
E-mini Dow 13297 1 13296
E-mini S&P 500 1436.50 -1.75 1438.25
10:57 a.m. EDT 09/10/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.27 78.26
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2787 1.2816
† Late New York trading.
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Re: Lunes 10/09/12 Semana del Fed, la decision corte Alemana

Notapor pepe » Lun Sep 10, 2012 10:01 am

¿Por qué cada vez más jubilados americanos eligen vivir en el extranjero? Recursos Humanos
deRevistas.com Ago 2012 Q2 página 14
deRevistas.com selecciona, traduce y resume lo mejor de las revistas de negocios y gerencia
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http://www.wharton.universia.net/index. ... le&id=2244
Agobiados por el alto coste de vida, en especial de la salud y del seguro, y los impuestos elevados, muchos
jubilados estadounidenses han tomado la decisión de dejar su país para instalarse en alguna isla del Caribe o
algún país latinoamericano y así sacar mayor partido de sus ahorros. La crisis financiera mundial que ha
golpeado fuertemente las cuentas de jubilación y el valor de los inmuebles residenciales ha obligado a un
número cada vez mayor de estadounidenses en sus años dorados a trasladar su residencia fuera de su país.
Si bien algunos de ellos emigran en busca de una vida más tranquila y un clima más suave, en sitios tales
como una isla del Caribe, una ciudad latinoamericana, un pueblo portugués o español o lugares exóticos,
como Malasia, lo cierto es que la mayoría de ellos lo hace por razones financieras, pues el coste de vida en el
extranjero es un 50% menor que en EUA. En la actualidad, cerca de 350 mil estadounidenses reciben
beneficios de la Seguridad Social en otros países. Según las estimaciones, esta cifra podría aumentar
considerablemente, pues unos 3,3 millones de personas nacidas entre 1940-60 planean disfrutar de su
jubilación en el extranjero.
Una buena parte de los jubilados estadounidenses no confían en poder permitirse una jubilación llena de
comodidades en EUA. Si consideramos que 1) un alquiler en San José, Costa Rica, es un 57% más barato que
en Filadelfia, 2) los precios al consumidor en Chiang Mai (Tailandia) son un 59% más bajos que en Boston, o
que 3) las verduras y legumbres en Sevilla, España, son un 36% más baratas que en San Francisco, entonces
una jubilación en el extranjero resulta muy atractiva.
Lo mismo ocurre, en EUA, con los servicios sanitarios, cuyos costes han subido considerablemente en la
última década y no dan señales de disminuir. Según un estudio, se estima que una pareja jubilada de 65
años necesitará unos US$ 240 mil para cubrir sus gastos médicos, lo que equivale a un aumento del 50%
respecto a 2002, cuando la estimación rondaba unos US$ 160 mil. Sin embargo, varios expertos destacan
que puede haber gastos ocultos que afecten el resultado final pese al aparente bajo coste de vida que ofrecen
muchos países. Sobre todo, esto ocurre en países de mercados emergentes, donde los productos locales son
relativamente baratos, a diferencia de los productos importados.
A su vez, los jubilados deben tomar en cuenta otros factores que pueden encarecer el coste de vida en el
extranjero, tales como 1) la necesidad de viajar continuamente a su país de origen acarrea fuertes gastos de
pasajes aéreos y alojamientos, 2) las complicaciones al negociar con la moneda local, al declarar los
impuestos, al lidiar con inestabilidades políticas y seguridad personal en el nuevo hogar. Para ello, algunos
asesores recomiendan optar por una estrategia de vida en el extranjero dividida en etapas: una de ellas sería
residenciarse en el extranjero durante los diez primeros años, cuando el jubilado es más activo, y sus
necesidades médicas no son tan grandes. Y la otra retornar a casa cuando ya no sea tan independiente y
requiera de la cercanía y ayuda de su familia.
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