Martes 11/09/12 Indice de los negocios, ventas de tiendas

[admin]

Martes

Eventos economicos

Indice del optimismo de los negocios
Ventas de tiendas
Comercio internacional
Libro rojo
Subasta de bonos

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


International Trade
8:30 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 9/32 0.247
10-Year Note 0/32 1.658
* at close

8:20 p.m. EDT 09/10/12Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.18 -0.36 96.54
Gold 1729.3 -2.5 1731.8
E-mini Dow 13222 -15 13237
E-mini S&P 500 1425.50 -1.00 1426.50

8:31 p.m. EDT 09/10/12Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.21 78.28
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2768 1.2759
† Late New York trading.

[admin]

Espana e Italia vendieron cantidades navegables de bonos, nada menos que 7.3 billones de euros, el dia de mas ventas desde el 2009.

[admin]

Preocupantes noticias para Peru, Chile y el resto del mundo.

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El exceso, surplus de cobre presenta un rompecabezas

El exceso de cobre parece estar aumentando, lo que presenta un fastidioso problema para lo analistas que tratan de predecir el precio del metal- y la condicion de la economia global.

Los inventarios de cobre dentro de los almacenes en Shanghai el mes pasado habian subido 20% desde Julio. Algunos inventarios alcanzan el techo de los almacenes. Tanto cobre ha sido enviedo a los almacenes que el metal esta alineado afuera de los almacenes. El piso debajo del cobre almacenado ha comenzado a requebrajarse debido al peso.

Hay mucho mas metal de lo que se esperaba, dice el analista visitando los almacenes en Shanghai. Generalmente los inventariso caen en el verano debido a la demanda de la estacion por los aires acondicionados y electricidad.

Los analistas estan viendo que la demanda de cobre esta desacelerandose aceleradamente en China.

Hay muchas dudas sobre la economia China.

Copper Surplus Presents Puzzle

China's copper surplus appears to be growing, which presents a vexing problem for analysts trying to predict the price of the metal—and the condition of the global economy.

Standard Chartered analyst Judy Zhu was startled when she made her regular round of China’s copper warehouses.

The stacks of copper slabs inside the warehouses in Shanghai last month had grown by 20% since July, she estimated. Some piles had reached the ceiling. So much copper had been sent into storage that the metal was being lined up outside some buildings. The earth beneath some huge piles was beginning to crack under their weight.

“There’s much more metal than we had expected,” Ms. Zhu said in an interview. Typically, copper stocks fall over the summer due to a seasonal peak of demand from air-conditioner makers and power-grid builders.

The huge stockpiles of copper are presenting a conundrum for analysts and investors. Some analysts say the huge stocks of copper are a warning sign that demand within China, the biggest buyer of the metal, is decelerating drastically—in what would be a troubling sign for the global economy. That, they say, casts some doubt on the likelihood that copper will continue its recent rally.

The focus on copper stockpiles reflects “people’s uneasiness about Chinese growth,” said John Mothersole, a metals analyst at IHS Global Insight. Those who fear a slowdown see bigger inventories down the road and thus lower prices, he said.

Others are looking on the bright side. They say they rising piles of copper demonstrate that the Chinese economy is weak enough to prompt the government to step in with more stimulus. That would only be good for copper.

Investors took that optimistic view on Monday, sending the metal to a four-month high after the government reported a decline in imports and slowing export growth.

Copper rose 1% to $8,050.5 a ton. Prices are up 7% since the beginning of June, far exceeding gains in other metals such as aluminum and nickel. The gains also have been boosted by hopes for more monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the promise of action from central bankers in Europe.

Either way, the buildup in stockpiles complicates the outlook for copper, analysts say.

Even if the added stimulus from around the world sparks rising economic activity, and demand for copper, some analysts argue it could take months to whittle down the huge copper surplus lingering in China’s warehouses. While that happens, demand for new copper from Chinese buyers is likely to remain low.

Under the pressure of high inventories, “any rally in copper prices based on expectations will likely not be sustainable,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in an August note. The German bank has recently slashed its third-quarter price target for copper by 17% to average $7,300 a ton, although it still expects it to rebound to $8,000 for the fourth quarter.

Analysts like Ms. Zhu focus on China’s bonded warehouses, where metals are parked temporarily by trading houses before being shipped to buyers. Official stockpile figures are rarely released, forcing market observers to make the rounds themselves.

Ms. Zhu and analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that the overhang had grown to about 600,000 metric tons, up from 500,000 in June. They also project the stockpiles will have since grown due to long-term purchase contracts. By comparison, London Metal Exchange warehouses reported 214,650 tons.

Until recently, China’s copper imports were robust. But rather than being used, much of the copper that entered the country went straight into storage.

“It means the end-demand conditions haven’t improved enough over the past few quarters to…draw down stocks,” said Nicholas Snowdon, an analyst with Barclays PLC. “It’ll take longer for the Chinese market to retighten.”

Still, some analysts say focusing on China’s copper inventory presents too narrow a picture.

“Just a couple of months of better demand—it will quickly change the perception of surplus to tightness,” Mr. Snowdon said. Also, overall copper stocks are lower this year than a year ago, due to a 42% drop in copper inventories at the LME, according to Scotiabank.

And many copper bulls are counting on Chinese the government’s support for the power and housing sectors to help prop up the metal’s prices. The International Copper Studies Group still expects a 237,000-ton deficit of refined copper in the world this year.

Some jittery traders are exiting the market. South Africa’s Standard Bank said in a report on Monday that traders closed out long, or bullish, positions worth 31.9 tons last week, the largest move since March. In another sign of weak demand, China’s spot copper prices are trading at a discount to the futures contract for delivery in September.

In a report, Ms. Zhu and her colleague Han Pin His advised clients not to buy copper until it dips toward $7,220 a ton, but look for prices to rally back to $8,000. The comments were accompanied by pictures showing copper sitting on ramps leading to warehouses and dump sites full of copper.

In what may be an omen for the copper market, they said in the note: “the ground has finally cracked.”

[admin]

Copper September 10,20:39
Bid/Ask 3.6091 - 3.6105
Change -0.0108 -0.30%
Low/High 3.6067 - 3.6205
Charts

Nickel September 10,20:39
Bid/Ask 7.4584 - 7.4652
Change -0.0280 -0.37%
Low/High 7.4294 - 7.4905
Charts

Aluminum September 10,20:39
Bid/Ask 0.9091 - 0.9096
Change -0.0033 -0.36%
Low/High 0.9091 - 0.9135
Charts

Zinc September 10,20:38
Bid/Ask 0.8861 - 0.8867
Change -0.0043 -0.48%
Low/High 0.8860 - 0.8909
Charts

Lead September 10,20:37
Bid/Ask 0.9461 - 0.9473
Change -0.0016 -0.17%
Low/High 0.9457 - 0.9525

[admin]

Asia-Pacific
Index Name Value Change % Change Time
Nikkei 225 8,794.99 -74.38 -0.84% 20:26:45
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 19,827.17 +25.01 +0.13% 04:01:30
S&P/ASX 200 4,317.30 -14.07 -0.32% 20:29:37

[admin]

El Fed esta atrapado en cero intereses hasta el 2015, eso es lo que dicen los Swaps, las probabilidades de otro QE alcanzan el 99%

Hace solo 6 meses los traders de money market esperaban que el Fed aumente intereses al final del 2013, ahora ven los intereses en niveles record (bajos) por tres anios mas mientras el outlook de la economia empeora.

La medidas de los bonos de los indices swaps de "overnight" (de un dia para otro), indican que no habra un aumento en el rate de los fondos federales hasta mediados del 2015, una caida del 62% en una medida de volatilidad en los bonos de gobierno indican que los intereses estaran cerca a cero por mas tiempo. La diferencia entre los yields de los treasuries de dos y cinco anios, que disminuyen cuando los traders esperan que los rates se mantengan controlados, es mas del 50% mas estrecho que su promedio desde el 2008.

Todo se esta poniendo mas dificil.

Fed Stuck at Zero Into 2015 Seen in Swaps, QE Odds Reach 99%
By Liz Capo McCormick and Susanne Walker - Sep 10, 2012 11:02 AM ET

Just six months ago, money market traders expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of 2013. Now, they see borrowing costs staying at record lows for about three more years as the economic outlook worsens.

Bond market measures from overnight index swaps, which indicate no increase in the federal funds rate until mid-2015, to a 62 percent decline in a measure of volatility in government bonds signal that rates will stay near zero for longer. The gap between two- and five-year Treasury yields, which decreases when traders expect benchmark rates to remain subdued, is more than 50 percent narrower than its average since 2008.

Investor expectations for sluggish growth and low inflation remain intact even though the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, happened four years ago. While the economy expanded in the second quarter, the unemployment rate remained above 8 percent for the 43rd-straight month in August.

“The problems have been bigger than anticipated and it will take a while to work our way through these issues,” Larry Dyer, a U.S. interest-rate strategist in New York with HSBC Holdings Plc’s securities unit, said in an interview on Sept. 6. “The bond market is pricing in pretty close to a very prolonged period of low growth,” said Dyer, whose company is one of the 21 primary dealers that trade with the central bank.

Jobs Report
Payrolls rose by 96,000 in August, the Labor Department said Sept. 7, below the 130,000 median estimate of 92 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, and the unemployment rate was 8.1 percent. Growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter from 2 percent in the first, according to the Commerce Department on Aug. 30. That compares with the 3.2 percent average increase in gross domestic product since 1950.

Bonds rallied following the report on speculation that policy makers will announce plans as soon as this week to pump more money into the economy to bolster growth by keeping yields low. For the week, 10-year Treasury yields rose 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The yield was little changed today at 1.67 percent as of 10:52 a.m. in New York.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Aug. 31 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that he wouldn’t rule out steps to lower a jobless rate he described as a “grave concern.”

He said additional bond purchases on top of the $2.3 trillion in so-called quantitative easing since 2008 are an option. He said past adjustments to the guidance policy makers have given on rates have been an effective way to signal policy.

More Accommodation
“They do stand ready for more policy accommodation and that will likely take the form of an expansion of the balance sheet in longer dated Treasuries or mortgages,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed income at BlackRock Inc. (BLK) in New York, which has $3.5 trillion under management, said in a telephone interview on Sept. 7. He anticipates the Fed will provide more guidance on the timing of rate policy first.

The Fed lowered its target rate for overnight loans between banks in December 2008 to a range of zero to 0.25 percent.

Implied forward rates for contracts that show what traders expect the federal funds effective rate to average over a set time period in the future indicate that a quarter-percentage advance won’t come until about July 2015. Two months ago, the swaps predicted an increase by about March of that year.

Bond Swaptions
Volatility as seen in the debt options market fell this quarter to the lowest levels since before the financial crisis in June 2007, the opposite of what would likely happen if traders expected the Fed to tighten monetary policy soon.

A measure of the perceived degree of future swings in swap rates, known as normalized volatility, for three-month options on 10-year interest-rate swaps, or 3m10y swaptions, touched 71.8 basis points on July 23, before ending last week at 79.7 basis points. A year ago, the reading was above 110.

If the central bank says it will keep rates lower for longer, volatility may fall toward 70, according to Jim Lee, head of U.S. derivative strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. RBS, which is also a primary dealer, sees a 90 percent chance that policy makers will announce a new round of debt purchases.

A gauge of indicators of market expectations for additional central bank stimulus rose to a record 99 percent in August, according to Citigroup Inc. The measure increased to 82 percent in the months before QE2 in November 2010.

Reducing Forecasts
“The market thinks that at Jackson Hole, Bernanke was saying conditions are pretty bad,” said Neela Gollapudi, a New York-based strategist at Citigroup Inc., in a telephone interview Sept. 5. “It’s less likely that they would do QE without extending the language.”

Bond strategists and economists have reduced their yield forecasts. The median of more than 70 estimates in a Bloomberg survey published Aug. 9 found that they see 10-year yields ending this year at 1.65 percent and 2.38 percent in 2013. In the prior monthly poll they saw 1.9 percent and 2.7 percent.

Central bank action may be losing some of its punch. Currency trades designed to benefit from expectations of stronger growth as the Fed eases are instead losing money.

The so-called carry trade, where investors borrow in lower- rate currencies such as dollars to buy higher-yielding ones, has fallen 2.8 percent from a four-month high on Aug. 9, the UBS AG V24 Carry Index shows. After Bernanke signaled QE2 in August 2010, the transaction gained 3.1 percent in 30 days.

‘Less Confident’
“The longer the Fed says it’s going to wait to raise rates, the less confident many investors and businesses may be on the outlook,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said in an interview on Sept. 6. “That would send a negative message to people and they want to be less negative.”

Ten-year Treasury yields will end the year at 2.25 percent, according to LaVorgna, whose company is another primary dealer.

Moves by the European Central Bank to prevent the breakup of the euro allow the Fed to concentrate more on growth, Carsten Brzeski, a senior economist at ING Group in Brussels, said in a Sept. 6 interview. ECB President Mario Draghi said that day policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program to contain rising yields in the euro area and fight speculation that Greece might leave the 17-nation currency.

“It does enable the Fed to focus more on its domestic issues: the economy, the labor market and the potential fiscal cliff,” Brzeski said, referring to tax increases and spending cuts of $1.2 trillion over a decade that would begin if Congress fails to agree by Dec. 31 on ways to reduce the deficit.

‘Unhealthy Obsession’
Republicans unhappy with Bernanke’s stimulus actions called for an audit of the Fed in their 2012 platform adopted in Tampa Aug. 28. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee said in a press release Sept. 6 that an “unhealthy obsession” with monetary policy is distracting the public from the need for fiscal reform.

U.S. GDP will expand 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2013 according to median forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley cut its 2012 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.7 percent according to an Aug. 15 report, and the ECB on Sept. 6 said euro area output will contract 0.4 percent this year, worse than the 0.1 percent it had predicted three months earlier.

Two-year Treasury yields ended last week at 0.25 percent, or 0.4 percentage point below the 0.65 percent for five-year notes. The two-year yield was 0.25 percent today. The gap has narrowed from a peak this year of 81 basis points in March as signs the recovery was slowing caused traders to expect low money market rates to persist for several years.

‘Damp Volatility’
“What the Fed and the ECB are trying to do is damp volatility,” Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Sept. 7 in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “Central banks are in the business now of keeping yields low for a very long time.”

Gross said he is seeking to bolster returns by capitalizing on the likely decrease in bond price swings.

His $270 billion Total Return Fund gained 8.2 percent during the past year, beating 97 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund rose 0.9 percent in the past month, topping 93 percent of comparable funds.

“Nervousness and continued agony over in Europe, the fiscal cliff, election uncertainty means there are a lot of headwinds,” said Mark MacQueen, partner and money manager at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $10 billion. “Everything is lining up to be more difficult. The Fed will give us language that reassures the market they intend on doing more.”

[admin]

iPhone 5: las companias aque provean el servicio de telefono e internet seran generadoras de cash?

El Miercoles se espera que AAPl presente el nuevo iPhone 5, poniendo el escenario para una critica prueba entre los esfuerzos de las companias proveedoras del servicio de telefonia e internet para sacar ventaja del iPhone 5 de la mejor manera.

Esta en juego las ganancias de la industria de celulares y se vera como es que estas companias podran sacar el mejor retorno sobre su inversion con sus nuevos servicios.

En solo 5 anios, el iPhone se ha convertido en una de las influencias mas importantes de las ganancias de las companias telefonicas, y su influencia esta aumentando. Companias como AT&T y Verizon pagan grandes cantidades de dinero por el iPhone y luego lo venden a sus clientes por mucho menos, esos subsidios envian billones de dolares a la riqueza de AAPL.

Los subscriptores mientras tanto han esperado crecientemente por el nuevo iPhone para comprarlo.



IPhone 5: Carrier Cash Cow?

By ANTON TROIANOVSKI And SPENCER E. ANTE
Apple Inc. AAPL -2.60%is expected to introduce the next iPhone model on Wednesday, setting the stage for a critical test of wireless carriers' efforts to bend the economics of the popular device to their advantage.

At stake is how profits in the wireless industry get divvied up and to what degree the carriers reap a return on investments in their newest networks.

In just a half a decade, the iPhone has become one of the most important influences on carriers' profits, and its influence is growing. Carriers like AT&T Inc. T +0.32%and Verizon Wireless pay huge sums for the device and then sell it to their subscribers for much less, a profit-damping subsidy that sends billions of dollars in wealth to Apple.

Their subscribers, meanwhile, have increasingly been waiting for new iPhones to be released before upgrading their devices.

Carriers have made a number of adjustments since Apple last introduced a new iPhone, including imposing new upgrade fees and setting up new data plans that could prove more lucrative. Have they finally figured out the economics of the iPhone? Anton Troianovski has details on The News Hub.

The iPhone 5, which Apple plans to release this week, could get credit for something Congress, the White House and Federal Reserve have struggled to do: boost the U.S. economy in a measurable way. Sudeep Reddy explains on The News Hub.

Apple has invited media to a Sept. 12 product announcement at which the company is widely expected to announce a new iPhone. The Wall Street Journal asked people on the street what features they expect the new iPhone will have.

The carriers have fought back this year, introducing new upgrade fees to reduce the cost of subsidizing all those new iPhones.

But the biggest impact could come from new data plans debuting this summer, which should squeeze more money from subscribers hooked on the new phone's faster data speeds.

Among carriers the hope is that the new iPhone—running for the first time on the fastest fourth-generation networks— will change consumer behavior. Donwloading videos and surfing the Web should be a more seamless, and more profitable, undertaking.

Validas LLC, a company that tracks wireless bills, surveyed 275,000 smartphone owners in the U.S. and found a big difference between data use by people who carry LTE phones. People carrying smartphones that weren't enabled for LTE averaged 500 megabytes of data per month in 2012, Validas found. But the average data use for an LTE subscriber was 1.2 gigabytes per month.

"These new devices and the apps that roll with them are going to drive more data usage," Verizon Communications Inc. VZ +0.78%Chief Executive Lowell McAdam told investors Friday. "As you move off of 3G and on to 4G your usage should go way up and your costs should go down."

Carriers have had a good run this year, with shares in AT&T up 24% and Verizon up 10%, fueled in part by better margins. Wall Street is debating whether that mainly reflects the lull between new iPhone releases or a more sustainable reworking of carriers' economics.

From the perspective of telecom companies, the economics of the iPhone boils down to trading high upfront costs for the promise of locking subscribers into higher phone bills under two-year contracts.

U.S. carriers' data revenue has indeed grown quickly since the iPhone was introduced in June 2007—$17.1 billion in the second quarter versus $5.2 billion five years earlier, according to UBS UBS -0.57%AG. But analysts have focused on the negative effects of those upfront costs.

This phenomenon is illustrated in the financial performance of AT&T, which became the first company to carry the iPhone.

In last year's fourth quarter, after the iPhone 4S went on sale, 12% of AT&T's cellphone customers upgraded to new phones and the carrier's wireless profit margin plummeted by a third to 29%, according to UBS. In the second quarter of this year, as many people waited for the new iPhone, just 6% of AT&T customers upgraded and the carrier's profit margin shot up to 45%.

To keep those swings from biting deeply into profits, AT&T and Verizon Wireless moved earlier this year to charge customers more for upgrades. Verizon imposed a $30 fee for some customers, and AT&T doubled its upgrade fee to $36.

The carriers are also being less generous than in prior years, when they allowed their subscribers to upgrade to new iPhones well before they completed their two-year contracts.

"We believe this approach lowers the risk that the carriers will capitulate to demand for a hot new device, as they did with some past device launches," UBS analyst John Hodulik said in a note to clients last month that detailed some of the carriers' moves to reduce spending on device upgrades.

More significantly, the new iPhone has the potential to trigger another jump in carriers' data revenue.

Verizon and AT&T have long done away with unlimited data plans for new customers in favor of tiered data plans. This summer, they took that strategy a step further with new plans that de-emphasize text and voice services in favor of more lucrative data packages.

The new iPhone could hasten the switch to the new plans. Verizon Wireless, co-owned by Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group VOD.LN -0.28%PLC, says it will only sell discounted smartphones to people on tiered data plans, meaning that someone who signed up for an unlimited data plan when Verizon started selling the iPhone in January 2011 will have to pay full price to get the latest iPhone or switch to a tiered data plan.

AT&T, meanwhile, says that iPhone customers who want to use the video-calling feature FaceTime over the cellular network will have to sign up for one of the new plans.

More
Sometimes, One Little Phone Can Have A Big Impact on the Economy
.In addition, people familiar with the matter say the new iPhone will run on a wireless network technology called LTE, which is faster than the 3G service iPhones currently support.

U.S. carriers have invested billions of dollars building LTE networks, but so far they aren't being used much. At the end of the second quarter, only 12% of Verizon's 89 million customers on contract were using its LTE network, the company said.

Carriers hope the new iPhone could finally prompt many of these customers to upgrade to LTE networks. That promises a double benefit: They handle data more efficiently and cheaply, and the faster speeds could prompt users to watch more videos, download more blacklisted_site and browse the Internet more often than they do currently.

"It is often the case that when a faster network presents itself, customer appetite for data tends to follow," said Bob Azzi, senior vice president of network at Sprint Nextel Corp. S +2.39%
Sprint, unlike AT&T and Verizon, is offering customers an unlimited data plan, so it doesn't stand to make money from more data traffic.

The company is in the early stages of rolling out its LTE network and made an expensive bet last year to carry the iPhone in order to win new customers and keep others from leaving.

[admin]

Este analista piensa que es hora de vender AAPL

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Apple Risks an iPhone Evolution
By ROLFE WINKLER
The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It also may prove the moment to dump Apple AAPL -2.60%shares.

Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked according to recent trial testimony. And it isn't crazy to think exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among iPhone users for an upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world's largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

But the device setting those records is likely to be just an incremental upgrade over the iPhone 4S. Indeed, the newest iPhone may not look that different from smartphones Apple sold three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn't expected to change much.

In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that "it just works," notes analyst Neil Mawston of Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and services like iTunes are well integrated and easy to use. That is different from, say, devices using Google's GOOG -0.76%Android software, where the ability to customize can confuse users.

In another sense, sticking to the iPhone's traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system used by Nokia NOK1V.HE +1.65%has "live tiles" that display information or photos directly on the home screen, not just icons that launch apps. The camera technology in Nokia's latest device is likely to top Apple's. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen designed to work for users wearing gloves. Such subtle upgrades have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs.

Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, and media from iTunes, may find it easier to keep using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices.

Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry devices looked nearly as impregnable. Apple's dominant ecosystem should stop it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact it is in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares fetch just 12 times earnings for the year through September 2013 despite those growing faster than any other S&P 500 company in 2011, ex-acquisitions.

Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening.

A new iPhone should again propel Apple's stock and its sales. That may be the time for shareholders to sell.

[admin]

Los prestamos en China superaron las expectativas despues del recorte de intereses

Los nuevos prestamos subieron a $111 billones el mes pasado, eso se compara con los 600 billones de yuan que esperaban los economistas, senialando que las politicas del gobierno estan funcionando.

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China New Yuan Loans Exceed Forecasts After Rate Reductions

China’s new loans exceeded estimates after two interest-rate cuts boosted demand for funding, signaling government efforts to stimulate the economy may be taking effect.

New local-currency lending was 703.9 billion yuan ($111 billion) last month, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. That compares with the 600 billion yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 32 economists and 540 billion yuan in July.

The data, along with a pickup in consumer inflation, may ease pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to take additional steps to support growth at risk of cooling for a seventh quarter. The central government has enhanced policy fine-tuning, achieving “good results” in stabilizing economic expansion, Wen said last month.

“Accelerating credit action suggests that the government is managing to steer lending to capital spending projects announced in recent months,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, said before the release. “The financing will enable their implementation, helping revive growth.”

The central bank didn’t release money-supply figures with the new loans. The data are due by Sept. 15.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9 percent at 10:10 a.m. local time.

August Record
Lending was an August record. Analysts’ estimates for new local-currency loans ranged from 540 billion yuan to 843 billion yuan. Banks extended 548.5 billion yuan of loans in August 2011.

Data this week showed China’s imports fell in August and industrial output rose the least in three years, signaling more stimulus may be needed after the government last week said it approved subway and road projects across the nation. Consumer inflation accelerated for the first time in five months.

The central bank has refrained from major monetary easing after cutting interest rates in June and July and lowering banks’ reserve requirement ratio three times from November to May.

China’s economy grew 7.6 percent in the second quarter, the slowest pace in three years, as Europe’s debt crisis limited exports and property curbs at home damped domestic demand. Economists at UBS AG, ING Groep NV and Royal Bank of Scotland Plc forecast full-year growth of 7.5 percent, which would be the weakest since 1990.

Investor Poll
About a quarter of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers surveyed Sept. 4 said they expect Chinese markets to be among the worst performers over the next year, the highest negative reading the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll since January 2010.

China’s biggest lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest by market value, posted slower profit growth in the second quarter as a sluggish economy curtailed demand for financial services and more borrowers defaulted on debt.

Combined earnings of China’s five biggest banks increased 13 percent to 203.6 billion yuan in the quarter, compared with 33 percent a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

--Zheng Lifei. Editors: Scott Lanman

[admin]

11:12 p.m. EDT 09/10/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   9/32 0.255
10-Year Note   0/32 1.658
* at close
11:03 p.m. EDT 09/10/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 96.33 -0.21 96.54
Gold 1733.5 1.7 1731.8
E-mini Dow 13203 -34 13237
E-mini S&P 500 1422.75 -3.75 1426.50
11:14 p.m. EDT 09/10/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.20 78.28
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2774 1.2759
† Late New York trading.

[admin]

Copper September 10,22:59
Bid/Ask 3.5871 - 3.5886
Change -0.0328 -0.91%
Low/High 3.5791 - 3.6205
Charts

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Aluminum September 10,22:58
Bid/Ask 0.9011 - 0.9018
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Low/High 0.9002 - 0.9135
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Lead September 10,22:58
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[admin]

Inventarios crudo EEUU habrían caído por segunda semana
lunes 10 de septiembre de 2012 21:20 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
NUEVA YORK (Reuters) - Los inventarios de crudo de Estados Unido habrían caído la semana pasada por segunda semana consecutiva, debido a que la producción de petróleo en el Golfo de México y las importaciones aún se recuperan del paso del huracán Isaac, mostró el lunes un sondeo preliminar de Reuters.

Se espera que los inventarios de crudo hayan caído en 2,1 millones de barriles en la semana que concluyó el 7 de septiembre, según un sondeo a siete analistas. Cinco analistas proyectaron una baja de las existencias.

"La producción de crudo, las importaciones de crudo y las operaciones de las refinerías posiblemente seguirán por debajo de lo normal como consecuencia de la tormenta", dijo Tim Evans, analista de energía de Citi Futures Perspective.

Durante la semana del 7 de septiembre, una producción equivalente a un total de 5.568.178 barriles de crudo fue cerrada debido al huracán Isaac.

Se espera que las importaciones de crudo permanezcan por debajo del nivel normal, aunque no tan bajas como en la semana en la que el huracán Isaac motivó el cierre del Puerto Petrolero en Altamar de Luisiana (LOOP, por sus siglas en inglés), que maneja cerca de un 13 por ciento del petróleo extranjero que es enviado a Estados Unidos.

El retorno a las operaciones de algunas refinerías después del paso de Isaac probablemente haya incrementado la demanda de crudo, profundizando la baja, dijeron algunos analistas.

Dos analistas proyectaron un aumento, diciendo que las importaciones probablemente se recuperaron de la caída de la semana pasada por la tormenta.

En la semana que terminó el 31 de agosto, las reservas nacionales de crudo cayeron bruscamente en 7,43 millones de barriles a 357,1 millones de barriles debido a Isaac, dijo la Administración de Información de Energía (EIA por su sigla en inglés) la semana pasada.

Las existencias de gasolina habrían caído en 1,9 millones de barriles la semana pasada. Seis de siete analistas esperan una baja. En la semana que terminó el 31 de agosto, las reservas cayeron en 2,33 millones de barriles a 198,89 millones de barriles.

Los precios de la gasolina en Estados Unidos subieron casi 8 centavos por galón durante las últimas dos semanas, principalmente debido a que el huracán Isaac obligó a reducir temporalmente la capacidad de refinación, según un sondeo.

La mayoría de los analistas espera un descenso en las existencias de productos refinados debido a un reinicio lento de las refinerías después de Isaac.

Los inventarios de destilados, que incluyen el petróleo para calefacción y el diésel, habrían descendido en 900.000 barriles la semana pasada. Cinco de siete analistas anticipan una caída de las reservas de destilados.

La tasa de utilización de refinerías habría crecido en 0,3 puntos porcentuales desde un 86,1 por ciento de capacidad en la semana previa.

La producción de crudo en el Golfo de México aún debe recuperarse totalmente del paso de Isaac, que tocó tierra en Luisiana el 28 de agosto y las refinerías aún están regresando a la normalidad.

La API entregará su reporte el martes a las 2030 GMT. El reporte semanal de la EIA será divulgado el miércoles a las 1430 GMT.

[admin]

Inventarios crudo EEUU habrían caído por segunda semana
lunes 10 de septiembre de 2012 21:20 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
NUEVA YORK (Reuters) - Los inventarios de crudo de Estados Unido habrían caído la semana pasada por segunda semana consecutiva, debido a que la producción de petróleo en el Golfo de México y las importaciones aún se recuperan del paso del huracán Isaac, mostró el lunes un sondeo preliminar de Reuters.

Se espera que los inventarios de crudo hayan caído en 2,1 millones de barriles en la semana que concluyó el 7 de septiembre, según un sondeo a siete analistas. Cinco analistas proyectaron una baja de las existencias.

"La producción de crudo, las importaciones de crudo y las operaciones de las refinerías posiblemente seguirán por debajo de lo normal como consecuencia de la tormenta", dijo Tim Evans, analista de energía de Citi Futures Perspective.

Durante la semana del 7 de septiembre, una producción equivalente a un total de 5.568.178 barriles de crudo fue cerrada debido al huracán Isaac.

Se espera que las importaciones de crudo permanezcan por debajo del nivel normal, aunque no tan bajas como en la semana en la que el huracán Isaac motivó el cierre del Puerto Petrolero en Altamar de Luisiana (LOOP, por sus siglas en inglés), que maneja cerca de un 13 por ciento del petróleo extranjero que es enviado a Estados Unidos.

El retorno a las operaciones de algunas refinerías después del paso de Isaac probablemente haya incrementado la demanda de crudo, profundizando la baja, dijeron algunos analistas.

Dos analistas proyectaron un aumento, diciendo que las importaciones probablemente se recuperaron de la caída de la semana pasada por la tormenta.

En la semana que terminó el 31 de agosto, las reservas nacionales de crudo cayeron bruscamente en 7,43 millones de barriles a 357,1 millones de barriles debido a Isaac, dijo la Administración de Información de Energía (EIA por su sigla en inglés) la semana pasada.

Las existencias de gasolina habrían caído en 1,9 millones de barriles la semana pasada. Seis de siete analistas esperan una baja. En la semana que terminó el 31 de agosto, las reservas cayeron en 2,33 millones de barriles a 198,89 millones de barriles.

Los precios de la gasolina en Estados Unidos subieron casi 8 centavos por galón durante las últimas dos semanas, principalmente debido a que el huracán Isaac obligó a reducir temporalmente la capacidad de refinación, según un sondeo.

La mayoría de los analistas espera un descenso en las existencias de productos refinados debido a un reinicio lento de las refinerías después de Isaac.

Los inventarios de destilados, que incluyen el petróleo para calefacción y el diésel, habrían descendido en 900.000 barriles la semana pasada. Cinco de siete analistas anticipan una caída de las reservas de destilados.

La tasa de utilización de refinerías habría crecido en 0,3 puntos porcentuales desde un 86,1 por ciento de capacidad en la semana previa.

La producción de crudo en el Golfo de México aún debe recuperarse totalmente del paso de Isaac, que tocó tierra en Luisiana el 28 de agosto y las refinerías aún están regresando a la normalidad.

La API entregará su reporte el martes a las 2030 GMT. El reporte semanal de la EIA será divulgado el miércoles a las 1430 GMT.

[admin]

Los futures Del Dow Jones 34 puntos a la baja.

Oil down 96.30

Au up 1,733