Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:40 am
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:47 am
DEsde el 2008 hasta Julio de este anio, ninguna moneda se valorizo mas que el dolar Australiano, gracias a las exportaciones de iron ore y otros commodities a China. Desde entonces, es la peor moneda en el mundo debido a que el motor del crecimiento mundial se desacelera.
Hard landing para China. Caida fuerte de China.
Fortescue Metals Group, el tercer productor de Australia, corto sus gastos de inversion en 26% debido a la caida de los precios del iron-ore.
China compra el 28% de las exportaciones de Australia.
Aussie Debacle Flags China Hard Landing as Iron Market Melts
By Anchalee Worrachate and Monami Yui - Sep 24, 2012 6:23 AM ET
From the end of 2008 through July, no major currency appreciated as much as Australia’s dollar, thanks to booming shipments of iron ore and other commodities to China. Since then, it’s the worst performer as the engine of world growth slows.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.'s property at Cloudbreak in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest producer, cut its spending plans by 26 percent as iron-ore prices declined.
The so-called Aussie depreciated 1.6 percent in the past month, the biggest decline among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. Traders are betting Australia’s central bank will cut interest rates to boost growth, dragging down the currency even though the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities has risen about 18 percent from its low this year in June.
This reversal shows the dangers for an economy tied too closely to another. China, which buys 28 percent of Australia’s exports, said industrial output grew at the slowest pace in three years last month as Europe’s debt crisis cut sales of Chinese goods. Polls show Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s governing Labor Party is under pressure before elections due next year.
“The Australian dollar is very expensive from whichever metrics you look at,” Dagmar Dvorak, a director of fixed-income and currencies in London at Baring Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion, said in an interview on Sept. 20. “When a currency overvaluation is that extreme, you have to question what could be a trigger that stops it. For the Aussie, it’s the economic slowdown in China and falling commodity prices. The currency looks vulnerable.”
Rebound Curtailed
Baring has joined Credit Suisse Asset Management and Quantum Global Investment Management as onetime bulls turned bearish. The Australian dollar was 39 percent overvalued against its U.S. counterpart on Sept. 20 as measured by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s more than other currencies that tend to rise and fall with commodity prices, such as those of New Zealand and Canada.
The Aussie appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in about six months on Sept. 14, after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of bond buying designed to boost growth and reduce unemployment. The gain was short-lived, and the currency has since weakened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts.
Resource Boom
Australia’s currency fell 0.9 percent last week as a report on Sept. 20 showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th-straight month and an International Monetary Fund official said the same day it would cut its forecasts for global economic expansion. The Aussie was at $1.0403 as of 11:21 a.m. in London today, 0.5 percent lower than the close on Sept. 21.
“We are worried about Chinese growth and think the short- term risk for Australian dollar is a bit too high for us,” Gareth Fielding, the chief executive officer at Quantum Global Investment Management in Zug, Switzerland, said on Sept. 17. “The rally has come a long way. We are a buyer if it falls below parity with the dollar.”
Australia’s economy was bolstered by the biggest resources bonanza since a gold rush in the 1850s as Chinese-led demand for iron ore, coal and natural gas surged in part because of Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan ($635 billion) stimulus package in 2008. Iron ore from Australia went into everything from skyscrapers in Shanghai to a shipyard in Dalian.
Most Expensive
The Aussie rode the boom, advancing 48 percent against the dollar since Dec. 31, 2008, and 60 percent versus the euro through Sept. 21. Exports to China more than doubled to A$71.5 billion last year from A$32.3 billion in 2008, according to data from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
This rally made the Australian currency the most expensive among developed-nation currencies, based on the relative costs of goods and services as measured by the Paris-based OECD. The Canadian loonie and the New Zealand kiwi were each 21 percent overvalued versus the dollar using the same measure.
It also made it attractive to as many as 23 central banks from Brazil to Russia, according to data provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia under a Freedom of Information Act request by Bloomberg News. The share of global foreign-exchange reserves dominated in “other currencies,” which strategists said includes Australia’s dollar, rose to 5.2 percent in the first quarter, from 2 percent in 2007, according to the IMF.
Shipping Costs
“We suspect that there will be very heavy buyers of Aussie” over the long term, Todd Elmer, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore, said in a phone interview on Sept. 11. “It makes enormous sense as a currency, in part because of commodities, in part because of higher returns, in part because of Australia’s more stable fiscal positions, than most major economies.”
Shipping costs rose last week, covering their running costs for the first time since July, as Chinese iron-ore buyers increased purchases after the nation announced plans for extra infrastructure spending.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens predicted in August that the resource boom has at least another year to run before it begins to ease. Business investment accounted for about 17 percent of Australia’s gross domestic product in the first half of 2012 and is forecast to increase further in the next year, driven by mining projects, according to an RBA report.
Investors are showing concern that Australia’s economy may slow after the price of iron ore, which made up more than 20 percent of exports last year, dropped as much as 37 percent this year to the lowest level since October 2009.
China Slows
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG), Australia’s third-biggest producer, cut its spending plans by 26 percent as iron-ore prices declined. BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), the world’s largest miner, delayed work at the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold project in South Australia last month, joining companies including Xstrata Plc and Rio Tinto Group in scaling back expansion.
“For Australia, the best news is behind us,” Adrian Owens, a money manager at GAM in London, said in a phone interview on Sept. 19. “China is struggling. In the short run, there’s been a few minor tweaks in terms of stimulus but that may not reverse a trend of slower growth.”
GAM, a unit of GAM Holding AG with $48 billion under management, is buying the Mexican peso, Owens said.
Barclays Plc, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG forecast growth of 7.5 percent for China this year, the weakest since 1990. Pacific Investment Management Co. (PTTRX), which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, predicts a slowdown to 6.5 percent to 7 percent in the next 12 months.
China’s net exports and investment have “reached their limits,” Ramin Toloui, Pimco’s co-head of emerging markets portfolio management in Singapore, said in a Sept. 13 e-mail.
‘Stretched’ Valuation
Australia’s economy grew 0.6 percent in the second quarter from the prior three months, according to a Bureau of Statistics report on Sept. 5, slower than the median estimate of economists for a 0.7 percent gain. Home-loan approvals unexpectedly fell in July by the most in five months.
“We are cautious” at these price levels for Australia’s dollar, Stefan Keitel, Credit Suisse Asset Management’s global chief investment officer, said in a Sept. 3 phone interview.
The firm, which has $385 billion under management, has sold Australian government bonds and is waiting for a “better entry level” as the currency’s valuation is “stretched” after a prolonged rally, he said.
Rate Outlook
The Aussie is trading about 30 cents higher than its average since exchange controls were scrapped in 1983. The RBA said Sept. 18 that it saw the strength of the local currency and slowing growth in China as risks to the domestic economy, signaling scope to cut interest rates.
After lowering the benchmark overnight cash-rate target by a total of 1.25 percentage points from October in an effort to boost growth, Stevens and his board left it at 3.5 percent for the past three meetings since June.
Traders see about an 84 percent chance policy makers will cut the benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points on Oct. 2, and a 97.6 percent likelihood of a reduction by year-end, interest- rate swaps show. Lower borrowing costs may make the currency less attractive to investors as they reduce returns on fixed- income assets.
“We’ve been seeing mining companies pulling back capital expenditure and iron-ore prices are still much lower than last year’s highs,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the global head of currency strategy at UBS AG in Singapore, said on Sept. 19. “The currency could definitely go below parity if the markets get more concerned about further easing.”
‘Pillar’ Crumbles
Gillard, the country’s first female prime minister, has seen her party’s poll ratings trail the opposition since after Australia’s 2010 election. She has pledged spending cuts and increased taxes to return the nation’s budget to surplus after four years of deficits.
The budget-surplus plan will reduce public spending and curb growth, Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, said in a telephone interview on Sept. 13. Ishide manages the biggest mutual fund focused on Australian dollar-denominated debt.
“The resource sector is one of the major pillars of Australia’s economy, and markets are cautious that demand for commodity exports will slow more evidently, which is negative for the economy,” Ishide said. He forecasts the currency will finish 2012 at parity to the U.S. dollar.
Standard Chartered Plc revised down its end-2013 forecast for the Australian dollar on Sept. 4, after having been jointly the second-most bullish forecaster in a Bloomberg survey of analysts as of July 1. It now predicts the Aussie will fall to 95 U.S. cents by the end of 2013 from a previous projection of $1.07.
“The Australian economy and its currency look vulnerable because of its exposure to China,” Peter Redward, a principal of Auckland, New Zealand-based Redward Associates Ltd. and former head of emerging-markets currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, said in an interview on Sept. 13. “We have yet to see the full impact on export values from the sharp fall in coal and iron ore prices. When it hits, the economy will slow, the central bank will cut rates and the Australian dollar will fall.”
Hard landing para China. Caida fuerte de China.
Fortescue Metals Group, el tercer productor de Australia, corto sus gastos de inversion en 26% debido a la caida de los precios del iron-ore.
China compra el 28% de las exportaciones de Australia.
Aussie Debacle Flags China Hard Landing as Iron Market Melts
By Anchalee Worrachate and Monami Yui - Sep 24, 2012 6:23 AM ET
From the end of 2008 through July, no major currency appreciated as much as Australia’s dollar, thanks to booming shipments of iron ore and other commodities to China. Since then, it’s the worst performer as the engine of world growth slows.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.'s property at Cloudbreak in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest producer, cut its spending plans by 26 percent as iron-ore prices declined.
The so-called Aussie depreciated 1.6 percent in the past month, the biggest decline among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. Traders are betting Australia’s central bank will cut interest rates to boost growth, dragging down the currency even though the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities has risen about 18 percent from its low this year in June.
This reversal shows the dangers for an economy tied too closely to another. China, which buys 28 percent of Australia’s exports, said industrial output grew at the slowest pace in three years last month as Europe’s debt crisis cut sales of Chinese goods. Polls show Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s governing Labor Party is under pressure before elections due next year.
“The Australian dollar is very expensive from whichever metrics you look at,” Dagmar Dvorak, a director of fixed-income and currencies in London at Baring Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion, said in an interview on Sept. 20. “When a currency overvaluation is that extreme, you have to question what could be a trigger that stops it. For the Aussie, it’s the economic slowdown in China and falling commodity prices. The currency looks vulnerable.”
Rebound Curtailed
Baring has joined Credit Suisse Asset Management and Quantum Global Investment Management as onetime bulls turned bearish. The Australian dollar was 39 percent overvalued against its U.S. counterpart on Sept. 20 as measured by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s more than other currencies that tend to rise and fall with commodity prices, such as those of New Zealand and Canada.
The Aussie appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in about six months on Sept. 14, after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of bond buying designed to boost growth and reduce unemployment. The gain was short-lived, and the currency has since weakened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts.
Resource Boom
Australia’s currency fell 0.9 percent last week as a report on Sept. 20 showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th-straight month and an International Monetary Fund official said the same day it would cut its forecasts for global economic expansion. The Aussie was at $1.0403 as of 11:21 a.m. in London today, 0.5 percent lower than the close on Sept. 21.
“We are worried about Chinese growth and think the short- term risk for Australian dollar is a bit too high for us,” Gareth Fielding, the chief executive officer at Quantum Global Investment Management in Zug, Switzerland, said on Sept. 17. “The rally has come a long way. We are a buyer if it falls below parity with the dollar.”
Australia’s economy was bolstered by the biggest resources bonanza since a gold rush in the 1850s as Chinese-led demand for iron ore, coal and natural gas surged in part because of Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan ($635 billion) stimulus package in 2008. Iron ore from Australia went into everything from skyscrapers in Shanghai to a shipyard in Dalian.
Most Expensive
The Aussie rode the boom, advancing 48 percent against the dollar since Dec. 31, 2008, and 60 percent versus the euro through Sept. 21. Exports to China more than doubled to A$71.5 billion last year from A$32.3 billion in 2008, according to data from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
This rally made the Australian currency the most expensive among developed-nation currencies, based on the relative costs of goods and services as measured by the Paris-based OECD. The Canadian loonie and the New Zealand kiwi were each 21 percent overvalued versus the dollar using the same measure.
It also made it attractive to as many as 23 central banks from Brazil to Russia, according to data provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia under a Freedom of Information Act request by Bloomberg News. The share of global foreign-exchange reserves dominated in “other currencies,” which strategists said includes Australia’s dollar, rose to 5.2 percent in the first quarter, from 2 percent in 2007, according to the IMF.
Shipping Costs
“We suspect that there will be very heavy buyers of Aussie” over the long term, Todd Elmer, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore, said in a phone interview on Sept. 11. “It makes enormous sense as a currency, in part because of commodities, in part because of higher returns, in part because of Australia’s more stable fiscal positions, than most major economies.”
Shipping costs rose last week, covering their running costs for the first time since July, as Chinese iron-ore buyers increased purchases after the nation announced plans for extra infrastructure spending.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens predicted in August that the resource boom has at least another year to run before it begins to ease. Business investment accounted for about 17 percent of Australia’s gross domestic product in the first half of 2012 and is forecast to increase further in the next year, driven by mining projects, according to an RBA report.
Investors are showing concern that Australia’s economy may slow after the price of iron ore, which made up more than 20 percent of exports last year, dropped as much as 37 percent this year to the lowest level since October 2009.
China Slows
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG), Australia’s third-biggest producer, cut its spending plans by 26 percent as iron-ore prices declined. BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), the world’s largest miner, delayed work at the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold project in South Australia last month, joining companies including Xstrata Plc and Rio Tinto Group in scaling back expansion.
“For Australia, the best news is behind us,” Adrian Owens, a money manager at GAM in London, said in a phone interview on Sept. 19. “China is struggling. In the short run, there’s been a few minor tweaks in terms of stimulus but that may not reverse a trend of slower growth.”
GAM, a unit of GAM Holding AG with $48 billion under management, is buying the Mexican peso, Owens said.
Barclays Plc, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG forecast growth of 7.5 percent for China this year, the weakest since 1990. Pacific Investment Management Co. (PTTRX), which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, predicts a slowdown to 6.5 percent to 7 percent in the next 12 months.
China’s net exports and investment have “reached their limits,” Ramin Toloui, Pimco’s co-head of emerging markets portfolio management in Singapore, said in a Sept. 13 e-mail.
‘Stretched’ Valuation
Australia’s economy grew 0.6 percent in the second quarter from the prior three months, according to a Bureau of Statistics report on Sept. 5, slower than the median estimate of economists for a 0.7 percent gain. Home-loan approvals unexpectedly fell in July by the most in five months.
“We are cautious” at these price levels for Australia’s dollar, Stefan Keitel, Credit Suisse Asset Management’s global chief investment officer, said in a Sept. 3 phone interview.
The firm, which has $385 billion under management, has sold Australian government bonds and is waiting for a “better entry level” as the currency’s valuation is “stretched” after a prolonged rally, he said.
Rate Outlook
The Aussie is trading about 30 cents higher than its average since exchange controls were scrapped in 1983. The RBA said Sept. 18 that it saw the strength of the local currency and slowing growth in China as risks to the domestic economy, signaling scope to cut interest rates.
After lowering the benchmark overnight cash-rate target by a total of 1.25 percentage points from October in an effort to boost growth, Stevens and his board left it at 3.5 percent for the past three meetings since June.
Traders see about an 84 percent chance policy makers will cut the benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points on Oct. 2, and a 97.6 percent likelihood of a reduction by year-end, interest- rate swaps show. Lower borrowing costs may make the currency less attractive to investors as they reduce returns on fixed- income assets.
“We’ve been seeing mining companies pulling back capital expenditure and iron-ore prices are still much lower than last year’s highs,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the global head of currency strategy at UBS AG in Singapore, said on Sept. 19. “The currency could definitely go below parity if the markets get more concerned about further easing.”
‘Pillar’ Crumbles
Gillard, the country’s first female prime minister, has seen her party’s poll ratings trail the opposition since after Australia’s 2010 election. She has pledged spending cuts and increased taxes to return the nation’s budget to surplus after four years of deficits.
The budget-surplus plan will reduce public spending and curb growth, Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, said in a telephone interview on Sept. 13. Ishide manages the biggest mutual fund focused on Australian dollar-denominated debt.
“The resource sector is one of the major pillars of Australia’s economy, and markets are cautious that demand for commodity exports will slow more evidently, which is negative for the economy,” Ishide said. He forecasts the currency will finish 2012 at parity to the U.S. dollar.
Standard Chartered Plc revised down its end-2013 forecast for the Australian dollar on Sept. 4, after having been jointly the second-most bullish forecaster in a Bloomberg survey of analysts as of July 1. It now predicts the Aussie will fall to 95 U.S. cents by the end of 2013 from a previous projection of $1.07.
“The Australian economy and its currency look vulnerable because of its exposure to China,” Peter Redward, a principal of Auckland, New Zealand-based Redward Associates Ltd. and former head of emerging-markets currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, said in an interview on Sept. 13. “We have yet to see the full impact on export values from the sharp fall in coal and iron ore prices. When it hits, the economy will slow, the central bank will cut rates and the Australian dollar will fall.”
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:48 am
Oil down 91.57
Au down 1,761
Espana -1.50%
Euro down 1.2901
Au down 1,761
Espana -1.50%
Euro down 1.2901
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:50 am
AAPL dice que ha vendido mas de 5 millones de iPhones en 3 dias, y mas de 100 millones han hecho el update al iOS.
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:54 am
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USP -1.57%
FB -5.60%
JPM -1.08%
BVN -1.26%
EPU +0.05%
C -1.28%
ERX -2.48%
EDC +0.32%
RIO -2.43%
EGO -1.29%
NG -2.26%
AAPL -2.01%
GAS -1.70%
XLF -0.63%
USP -1.57%
FB -5.60%
JPM -1.08%
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 7:56 am
Los 'commodities' se desacoplan
Los factores específicos de cada materia prima pesan tanto o más que las tendencias macroeconómicas
Por BEN LEVISOHN
La sequía en Estados Unidos, el recrudecimiento de las tensiones en Medio Oriente y el enfriamiento de la economía china han repercutido en los mercados mundiales de materias primas y generado oportunidades para los inversionistas que saben cómo sacar ventaja de este entorno.
Desde la crisis financiera de 2008, las materias primas se han movido en forma sincronizada, subiendo o bajando conforme cambiaban las expectativas acerca de lo que harían los bancos centrales para estimular el crecimiento. A fines de 2008, los precios de los commodities se derrumbaron y en 2009, 2010 y 2011 se movieron al unísono.
En 2012, sin embargo, la situación empezó a cambiar. En los últimos seis meses, por ejemplo, la cotización del maíz ha subido 15% y la del oro 7,5%, pero el cobre acumula un descenso de 1,9%.
Este desacoplamiento obliga a los inversionistas a ser más cuidadosos y a no meter a todas los commodities en el mismo saco.
Esto no quiere decir que las materias primas se han desacoplado por completo o que sus precios no se volverán a sincronizar si se deteriora la economía global. Pero a medida que disminuyen las expectativas de un colapso mundial, los inversionistas empiezan a hacer distinciones más finas entre los activos de mayor riesgo.
.
Los expertos señalan que, por ahora, los precios de las materias primas se verán igual de afectados por factores específicos, como sequías, guerras o problemas de producción, al igual que por las decisiones de los bancos centrales y la salud de la economía mundial.
"Los factores que impulsan mercados individuales cobran mayor importancia", reconoce Kevin Norrish, estratega de commodities de Barclays en Londres. "A partir de ahora vamos a tener que acostumbrarnos a esto".
Esto es lo que podría pasar en las materias primas si la tendencia continúa.
Agricultura
Una sequía en la región del medio oeste de EE.UU. ha disparado los precios del trigo 32% y de la soya 16% en los últimos tres meses. Wayne Gordon, estratega de commodities deUBS, advierte que los precios no deberían subir mucho más. Brasil y Argentina se disponen a comenzar a plantar y eso debería aliviar pronto algunas de las presiones en el mercado. Si los agricultores estadounidenses plantan más el próximo año, los precios no deberían aumentar, señala.
Metales industriales
Después de la crisis financiera, los precios de los metales industriales eran determinados por las expectativas del mercado acerca del crecimiento de la economía global, dicen los expertos. Ahora, la desaceleración de China es el factor principal, indica Jurien Timmer, uno de los gestores del fondo de US$402 millones Fidelity Global Strategies y director de estudios macro de la firma.
"China atraviesa por un enfriamiento y eso está haciendo caer los precios de todos los metales industriales", observa. Un análisis de Ned Davis Research estima que un aterrizaje suave de China, equivalente a un crecimiento de 7,5% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), desembocaría en una caída de 5,9% hasta fines de 2013 en el Subíndice de Metales CRB, que agrupa al cobre, el plomo y el estaño entre otros. Si China se expande 5%, lo que sería considerado como un aterrizaje forzoso, el subíndice CRB perdería casi 40% de su valor.
Energía
El petróleo Brent, la principal referencia del mercado, ha avanzado casi 12% desde fines de junio, mientras que el gas natural ha caído 1,3% y el carbón más de 10%.
El crudo se ha beneficiado del aumento de las tensiones políticas en Medio Oriente, pero una vez que la situación se estabilice, el precio puede bajar rápidamente. El crudo cayó 4,5% la semana pasada en medio de especulaciones de que EE.UU. y otros países podrían inyectar en el mercado petróleo de sus reservas estratégicas y que Araba Saudita podría aumentar su producción.
Oro y metales preciosos
Al contrario de lo que ocurre con la energía, la agricultura y los metales industriales, los inversionistas compran oro principalmente para protegerse de la posibilidad de que los bancos centrales abaraten sus monedas.
Cuando la Fed anunció la primera ronda de compra de bonos, el oro subió 35% entre el 25 de noviembre de 2008 y el 30 de marzo de 2010. El precio del metal avanzó 21% luego de que el banco central estadounidense anunciara una segunda ronda de compra de bonos del Tesoro, entre el 27 de agosto de 2010 y el 24 de junio de 2011, según Ned Davis Research. Ahora que el Banco Central Europeo dio a conocer su disposición a comprar montos ilimitados de bonos emitidos por las economías más débiles de la zona euro y la Fed divulgó una tercera ronda de compra de bonos, el oro ha vuelto a repuntar.
Los factores específicos de cada materia prima pesan tanto o más que las tendencias macroeconómicas
Por BEN LEVISOHN
La sequía en Estados Unidos, el recrudecimiento de las tensiones en Medio Oriente y el enfriamiento de la economía china han repercutido en los mercados mundiales de materias primas y generado oportunidades para los inversionistas que saben cómo sacar ventaja de este entorno.
Desde la crisis financiera de 2008, las materias primas se han movido en forma sincronizada, subiendo o bajando conforme cambiaban las expectativas acerca de lo que harían los bancos centrales para estimular el crecimiento. A fines de 2008, los precios de los commodities se derrumbaron y en 2009, 2010 y 2011 se movieron al unísono.
En 2012, sin embargo, la situación empezó a cambiar. En los últimos seis meses, por ejemplo, la cotización del maíz ha subido 15% y la del oro 7,5%, pero el cobre acumula un descenso de 1,9%.
Este desacoplamiento obliga a los inversionistas a ser más cuidadosos y a no meter a todas los commodities en el mismo saco.
Esto no quiere decir que las materias primas se han desacoplado por completo o que sus precios no se volverán a sincronizar si se deteriora la economía global. Pero a medida que disminuyen las expectativas de un colapso mundial, los inversionistas empiezan a hacer distinciones más finas entre los activos de mayor riesgo.
.
Los expertos señalan que, por ahora, los precios de las materias primas se verán igual de afectados por factores específicos, como sequías, guerras o problemas de producción, al igual que por las decisiones de los bancos centrales y la salud de la economía mundial.
"Los factores que impulsan mercados individuales cobran mayor importancia", reconoce Kevin Norrish, estratega de commodities de Barclays en Londres. "A partir de ahora vamos a tener que acostumbrarnos a esto".
Esto es lo que podría pasar en las materias primas si la tendencia continúa.
Agricultura
Una sequía en la región del medio oeste de EE.UU. ha disparado los precios del trigo 32% y de la soya 16% en los últimos tres meses. Wayne Gordon, estratega de commodities deUBS, advierte que los precios no deberían subir mucho más. Brasil y Argentina se disponen a comenzar a plantar y eso debería aliviar pronto algunas de las presiones en el mercado. Si los agricultores estadounidenses plantan más el próximo año, los precios no deberían aumentar, señala.
Metales industriales
Después de la crisis financiera, los precios de los metales industriales eran determinados por las expectativas del mercado acerca del crecimiento de la economía global, dicen los expertos. Ahora, la desaceleración de China es el factor principal, indica Jurien Timmer, uno de los gestores del fondo de US$402 millones Fidelity Global Strategies y director de estudios macro de la firma.
"China atraviesa por un enfriamiento y eso está haciendo caer los precios de todos los metales industriales", observa. Un análisis de Ned Davis Research estima que un aterrizaje suave de China, equivalente a un crecimiento de 7,5% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), desembocaría en una caída de 5,9% hasta fines de 2013 en el Subíndice de Metales CRB, que agrupa al cobre, el plomo y el estaño entre otros. Si China se expande 5%, lo que sería considerado como un aterrizaje forzoso, el subíndice CRB perdería casi 40% de su valor.
Energía
El petróleo Brent, la principal referencia del mercado, ha avanzado casi 12% desde fines de junio, mientras que el gas natural ha caído 1,3% y el carbón más de 10%.
El crudo se ha beneficiado del aumento de las tensiones políticas en Medio Oriente, pero una vez que la situación se estabilice, el precio puede bajar rápidamente. El crudo cayó 4,5% la semana pasada en medio de especulaciones de que EE.UU. y otros países podrían inyectar en el mercado petróleo de sus reservas estratégicas y que Araba Saudita podría aumentar su producción.
Oro y metales preciosos
Al contrario de lo que ocurre con la energía, la agricultura y los metales industriales, los inversionistas compran oro principalmente para protegerse de la posibilidad de que los bancos centrales abaraten sus monedas.
Cuando la Fed anunció la primera ronda de compra de bonos, el oro subió 35% entre el 25 de noviembre de 2008 y el 30 de marzo de 2010. El precio del metal avanzó 21% luego de que el banco central estadounidense anunciara una segunda ronda de compra de bonos del Tesoro, entre el 27 de agosto de 2010 y el 24 de junio de 2011, según Ned Davis Research. Ahora que el Banco Central Europeo dio a conocer su disposición a comprar montos ilimitados de bonos emitidos por las economías más débiles de la zona euro y la Fed divulgó una tercera ronda de compra de bonos, el oro ha vuelto a repuntar.
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 8:35 am
VIX up 14.94
Libor igual 0.37%
Oil down 91.69
-55.94
Libor igual 0.37%
Oil down 91.69
-55.94
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 8:37 am
Euro down 1.2911
Brent down 109.88
Yields 1.73%
Au down 1,764
-45.73
Brent down 109.88
Yields 1.73%
Au down 1,764
-45.73
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 8:45 am
Brent down 110.34
AAPL -1.33%
Oil down 91.83
-40.78
AAPL -1.33%
Oil down 91.83
-40.78
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Re: Lunes 24/09/12 Economia en Chicago y Dallas
por admin » Lun Sep 24, 2012 8:45 am
Futures cu down 3.74
Yen up 78.01
Euro down 1.2909
-39.11
Yen up 78.01
Euro down 1.2909
-39.11
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