Martes 25/09/12 Case-Shiler, indice casa, manufactura Richmo

[admin]

12:40 p.m. EDT 09/25/12Major Stock Indexes
Last Change % Chg
DJIA 13543.64 -15.28 -0.11
Nasdaq 3158.94 -1.84 -0.06
S&P 500 1455.81 -1.08 -0.07
DJ Total Stock Market 15170.41 -3.55 -0.02

[jonibol]

Varios analistas subiendo proyecciones de precios de metales, por los estímulos monetarios. Ahora lo hizo Citi

Citi raises 2012 precious, base metals forecasts

NEW YORK--Citigroup Inc. /quotes/zigman/5065548/quotes/nls/c C +0.01% increased its 2012 average-price forecasts for gold and silver on the view that the monetary-easing policies deployed by world central banks would draw investors to the precious metals.

In a note dated Monday, the investment bank increased its forecast for the average price of gold this year by 2.3%, to $1,681 a troy ounce. The bank lifted its silver forecast 5% to $32 a troy ounce. On Tuesday morning, gold for December delivery was up 0.5% at $1,774, while silver for December delivery rose 1.1% at $34.365. Gold prices have been below $1,700 for much of the year. Silver has traded in a wide range this year, briefly topping $37 in February but also sliding to almost $26 in June.

Both metals have rallied since August as the Federal Reserve implemented a new bond-buying program designed to boost the U.S. economy. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have also leaned toward easy-money policies. Such steps can raise worries about paper currencies losing value and make gold and silver more appealing as stores of wealth.

"The ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, stubbornly high unemployment and low growth in the U.S., and a rapid slowdown in China are all forcing the world's major central banks to further deploy unconventional monetary tools," Citi analysts said. "Excess liquidity is likely to be absorbed into commodities that can be held as investments, collateral or under warehousing deals."

That includes base metals, Citi said. The bank nudged higher its outlook for copper and aluminum, now expecting aluminum prices to average 93 cents a pound, up 1.2% from the bank's previous forecast, and copper at $3.61 a pound, up 1%.

[jonibol]

Los datos de viviendas de hoy, muestran que el sector inmobiliario en US se ha estabilizado. Veremos si repunta con la inyección de liquidez.

[admin]

No es seguro si las casas tocaron piso, lo que si es seguro es que no se van a recuperar rapidamente.

[admin]

Oil down 91.63

-17.85

Yields down 1.71%

Au up 1,766

Euro up 1.294

[admin]

VIX up 14.40

Brent up 110.30

Libor down 0.36%

-18.78

[admin]

Futures cu up 3.75

Nasdaq -0.19%

[admin]

La confianza del consumidor se mantuvo estable en Germany, en US mejoro.

[admin]

Algunos miembros del Fed estan saliendo a dar la cara por la independencia del Fed, realmente fuertemente comprometida con el QE3 precisamente antes de las elecciones, mas claro imposible, esta ha sido una mano de ayuda a la campania de Obama.

--------------

Plosser, de Fed, en desacuerdo con tercer alivio cuantitativo
martes 25 de septiembre de 2012 12:43 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] Por Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
FILADELFIA (Reuters) - El último estímulo monetario de la Reserva Federal no hará mucho para impulsar el crecimiento económico o reducir el desempleo en Estados Unidos, y eleva el riesgo de una inflación de largo plazo, dijo el martes el presidente de la Fed de Filadelfia, Charles Plosser.

El funcionario, de tendencia dura contra la inflación, aseguró que está en desacuerdo con la decisión del banco central de lanzar un programa sin límite fijo de compra de activos, comenzando con 40.000 millones de dólares por mes en valores respaldados por hipotecas.

"Creo que incrementar la expansión de la política monetaria no es ni apropiado ni probablemente sea efectivo en el actual ambiente", dijo Plosser en un evento organizado por la Fed de Filadelfia.

Plosser aseguró que creía que muchos de los impedimentos para bajar la tasa de desempleo desde un 8,1 por ciento son estructurales en su naturaleza, y por lo tanto no se los puede tratar con soluciones de política monetaria.

Frente a ese escenario, la Fed bien podría necesitar comenzar a subir las tasas de interés antes de su guía de mediados del 2015, según Plosser, quien no tiene derecho a voto este año en el panel de la Fed que fija la política monetaria.

El funcionario aseguró que no ve un riesgo importante de un brote de inflación en Estados Unidos, pero sí ve que las altamente expansivas políticas de la Fed aumentan la amenaza de un incremento indeseablemente alto en los precios al consumidor en el futuro.

"Al expandir enormemente la hoja de balance de la Fed, el nuevo programa de compra de activos exacerbará los desafíos que la Fed enfrentará cuando llegue el momento de salir (de dichas políticas)", dijo Plosser.

El jefe de la Fed de Filadelfia espera que la mayor economía mundial, que se expandió a una tasa anual del 1,7 por ciento en el segundo trimestre, crezca un 2 por ciento este año y alrededor de un 3 por ciento por año en el 2013 y 2014.

En respuesta a la crisis financiera y a la profunda recesión del 2007-2009, la Fed recortó sus costos oficiales del crédito a efectivamente cero y compró alrededor de 2,3 billones de dólares en bonos y deuda respaldada por hipoteca para apoyar la recuperación.

(Editado en español por Manuel Farías)

[admin]

La confianza del consumidor estable en Italia tambien.

[admin]

Plosser Says QE3 Risks Fed Credibility, Won’t Boost Jobs

En peligro la credibilidad del Fed, no ayudara a solucionar el desempleo: Plosser del Fed.

[admin]

Esten atentos por que estan son las practicas infallables de la izquierda, cuando salga Humala a regalar casas, sera dificil que no voten por el o por su partido.

China le ha prestado a Venezuela $42.5 billones a 6% de interes a ese pais, dinero barato. Ahora Chavez regala casas a los llamados "pobres"

El interes de China es el petroleo de Venezuela, tontos no son. Ahora Venezuela recibe el 23% de todos los prestamos otorgados al extranjero por parte de China. Para ponerlo en perspectiva US gasto entre el 2003 y el 2006 $29 billones en la reconstruccion de Irak. En los ultimos 15 meses cuando la produccion de petroleo de Venezuela se estancaba y los creditos se encarecian Venezuela recibia algo de $12 billones. Bonanza justo antes de las reelecciones.

----------------

China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Oil Loans
By Charlie Devereux - Sep 25, 2012 12:33 PM ET

Edelmina Flores thanks God and Hugo Chavez for her apartment in a new housing complex in the Venezuelan president’s home state of Barinas. She might also want to thank the Chinese government.

Since 2007, the China Development Bank has lent Venezuela $42.5 billion collateralized by revenue from the world’s largest oil reserves, according to a Bloomberg compilation of deals announced by the Chavez government. That’s around 23 percent of all overseas loans by the state-run lender and more than the $29 billion the U.S. spent rebuilding Iraq between 2003 and 2006. At least $12 billion was promised in the past 15 months, when stagnant oil output and the highest borrowing costs among major emerging markets would’ve made raising capital more expensive.

Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
A Chinese construction worker dressed in a Venezuelan military uniform works at a daycare center at the government housing project Ciudad Tavacare, near Barinas.

A Chinese construction worker dressed in a Venezuelan military uniform works at a daycare center at the government housing project Ciudad Tavacare, near Barinas. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
3:16 Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Since 2007, the China Development Bank, or CDB, has lent Venezuela $42.5 billion collateralized by revenue from the world’s largest oil reserves, according to a Bloomberg compilation of deals announced by the Chavez government. The loans are fueling a surge in spending as Chavez hands out homes to the poor, stocks “socialist” supermarkets with appliances and builds a cross-country railroad, all aimed at winning votes next month in his toughest election battle ever. (Source: Bloomberg)
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
A sign showing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez shaking hands with Chinese President Hu Jintao marks the entrance to China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project site in Los Dos, Caminos.

A sign showing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez shaking hands with Chinese President Hu Jintao marks the entrance to China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project site in Los Dos, Caminos. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Chinese and Venezuelan construction workers build an elevated platform at China Railway Engineering Corporation's (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos.

Chinese and Venezuelan construction workers build an elevated platform at China Railway Engineering Corporation's (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
A Chinese construction worker, dressed in a Venezuelan military uniform, welds doors and windows at the government housing project, Ciudad Tavacare, near Barinas.

A Chinese construction worker, dressed in a Venezuelan military uniform, welds doors and windows at the government housing project, Ciudad Tavacare, near Barinas. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Machine controls are identified in Chinese at a rail factory at China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos.

Machine controls are identified in Chinese at a rail factory at China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Venezuelan union workers meet at the entrance of China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) operations headquarters for the Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos.

Venezuelan union workers meet at the entrance of China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) operations headquarters for the Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Concrete supports stand at China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos.

Concrete supports stand at China Railway Engineering Corp.'s (CREC) Tinaco-Anaco railway project in Los Dos Caminos. Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
China Bankrolling Chavez’s Re-Election Bid With Loans For Oil Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Chinese construction workers build a daycare center at the government housing project, Ciudad Tavacare, near Barinas.

The loans are fueling a surge in spending as Chavez hands out homes to the poor, stocks “socialist” supermarkets with appliances and builds a cross-country railroad -- all aimed at winning votes next month in his toughest election battle ever.

“If we didn’t have a president like the one we have, lots of families would be on the street,” said Flores, who used to live in a two-bedroom shack before being given a new home in December by Chavez’s brother, Governor Adan Chavez.

“Now I have a decent home for my three children,” Flores, 46, said in an Aug. 21 interview. “My president is the best.”

Winning Twice
The loans give the Chinese influence over Chavez, who regularly speaks of recovering Venezuela’s sovereignty after decades of subjugation to the U.S. “empire.” In addition to securing large deliveries of oil, much of the money lent to Venezuela returns in the form of contracts to Chinese state-run companies whose global expansion is also being financed by the Beijing-based CDB, the world’s biggest policy lender.

Among the beneficiaries are China Petrochemical Corp and the country’s biggest oil and gas producer, China National Petroleum Corp. Both gained stakes in Venezuela’s oil industry after Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) abandoned the country under the threat of nationalization.

“Venezuela’s oil is at the service of China,” Chavez, 58, said in February 2009 at a meeting in Caracas with a delegation of Chinese businessmen led by Vice President Xi Jinping.

One vehicle for the lending is a joint fund to finance infrastructure projects set up in 2007 by CDB and Venezuela’s Bank for Social & Economic Development. To date, China has contributed $16 billion, while Venezuela has committed half that amount, according to the Venezuelan government. Separately Chavez also secured a $20 billion loan from CDB in 2010, half of which is payable in U.S. dollars and half in renminbi.

Chavez said this month that he’s seeking a third credit line. “We’re thinking about 2013,” he told reporters Sept. 11. “I sent Hu Jintao a letter and the teams are already working on it,” he said, referring to the Chinese president.

Oil Tab
Venezuela pays off the loans with oil, the amount of which fluctuates depending on the price of crude. Currently debt- servicing consumes about 264,000 barrels of the 640,000 a day that Venezuela sends China, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in an interview with El Universal newspaper Aug. 15, or about 9 percent of production. Venezuela relies on oil for 95 percent of its exports and half of public spending.

The savings for Venezuela are significant. As a result of Chavez’s nationalization drive and inflation that has remained above 18 percent since 2007, the country’s borrowing costs have soared to the highest among major emerging markets. The extra yield investors demand to own Venezuelan dollar debt rather than U.S. Treasuries is 985 basis points , according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global index.

Cheap Credit
Venezuela pays no more than 6 percent interest on its loans from China compared with 12 percent it pays for bonds issued in capital markets, Ramirez told El Nacional in an interview published Sept. 19. Ramirez’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request to confirm his comments as reported by El Nacional and El Universal.

The lower cost has allowed Chavez to avoid tapping global investors. While the government and state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA sold a record $17.5 billion of dollar- denominated debt in 2011, so far this year PDVSA has issued just $3 billion.

“We have lots of capital and lack resources, they have lots of resources and lack capital, so it’s complementary,” Liu Kegu, the CDB’s advisor to Venezuela, said in a March interview in Beijing. “Oil is very simple to drill. You drill a hole, put in a pipe and it comes out.”

Chavez has put the windfall to work ahead of an Oct. 7 election in which he’s seeking a third, six-year term amid concerns about his health after he revealed last year he was battling cancer. In the past 12 months, government spending has risen 30 percent in real terms, according to Bank of America- Merrill Lynch, helping to drive economic growth of 5.4 percent in the second quarter.

Housing Drive
Much of the spending is going toward a plan to build 3 million homes by 2018, a pillar of Chavez’s campaign to defeat opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski.

Pollsters are split on who has an advantage in the race, though none shows Chavez dominating as he did in 2006, when he won with 63 percent. Capriles, the former governor of Miranda state, enjoyed a 1.9 percentage point edge over Chavez in an August poll by Caracas-based Consultores 21. A poll taken Aug. 25 to Sept. 5 by Caracas-based Datanalisis showed Chavez with 49.4 percent against 39 percent for Capriles.

In a sign of how China wins twice from lending to Venezuela, much of the construction is being done by Chinese companies. Flores’s apartment is one of 5,360 units being built on a plot of land two miles outside the state capital in Barinas by Citic Construction Engineering Co, a subsidiary of China’s largest conglomerate.

Resource Wealth
In addition to helping Chavez fulfill his campaign pledges, Chinese companies are gaining access to some of Venezuela’s most valuable assets.

Citic, which is building more than 33,000 homes across the country, is in talks with PDVSA to acquire a stake in the Petropiar oil venture in the heavy crude Orinoco belt, state television reported Feb. 27. It’s also a minority partner in Las Cristinas, a mine containing the country’s largest gold deposits, Chavez said Feb. 24. Another subsidiary, Citic Securities Co Ltd, China’s largest brokerage by market value, is advising on ways to conduct financial operations through the Hong Kong stock exchange, according to Chavez.

Chinese companies are also being invited to fill pent-up demand for everything from cars to televisions as currency and import restrictions lead to supply shortages. According to a September 2010 resolution in the Official Gazette, Venezuela must spend at least 75 percent of the $20 billion it received in 2010 on “cooperation projects” between the two countries.

Cars, Televisions
Chavez’s government since September 2010 has purchased 3 million air conditioners, televisions and other appliances from Qingdao Haier Co., Commerce Minister Edmee Betancourt said in April. The goods are used to supply a program called “My Well- Equipped House” that’s backed by credit from state banks at a subsidized interest rate below inflation. The loans are also being used to import cars made by Wuhu-based Chery Automobile Co., Betancourt said this month.

“The Chinese have done their homework,” said Kevin Gallagher, an economist at Boston University and author of “Dragon in the Room: China & the Future of Latin American Industrialization.” “The Venezuelan economy can tank but part of the loans are linked to commodities that aren’t going to disappear anytime soon.”

Ecuador, Ghana
The oil-for-loans program in Venezuela stands out for its size, though the same model is used by China to benefit its economy and companies throughout the world, from Russia to Ghana. In Latin America, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, an ally of Chavez, has secured oil-backed loans from China since 2009 worth $7.3 billion, about a third of the government’s budget, according to the country’s Finance Ministry.

As with Chinese projects in Africa and elsewhere, tensions have surfaced between Venezuelan workers and their foreign managers. At three construction sites in different states visited by Bloomberg News over five days in August, dozens of workers described being forced by Chinese managers to work long hours, with little concern for their safety, and being harassed by police for airing complaints.

Bullet Wound
Andres Roman Rangel said police shot him and two co-workers while breaking up a union meeting near Los Dos Caminos, in Guarico state, where China Railway Engineering Corp. is building a 468-kilomters (290 mile) railroad.

“They got me in my right arm and you can see how it entered and exited just below my armpit,” Rangel, 38, said in an interview from the workers’ camp, pointing to a bullet wound.

Jose Perez, a 31-year-old machinist on the same project, said he’s frequently forced to work 15 hours straight without overtime. “They’re trying to impose Chinese labor laws on us,” he said, standing near a giant billboard of Chavez shaking hands with Chinese President Hu.

Much of the work is going to Chinese migrants. In the housing project in Barinas, about 43 percent of the 812 workers are Chinese, according to state-run newspaper Correo del Orinoco. In Los Dos Caminos 75 percent are Chinese, said Manuel Magallanes, a union leader on the $7.5 billion Tinaco-Anaco railway, the nation’s largest non-oil infrastructure investment.

China Response
Marco Perozo, manager of the project for Venezuela’s State Railway Institute, or IFE, declined to discuss the workers’ grievances when he was asked about them outside the encampment. He said he needed permission from the National Guard commander who wasn’t present. He didn’t return subsequent phone calls and IFE’s President, Franklin Perez Colina, didn’t respond to an e- mail. Chinese managers on the project wouldn’t talk to Bloomberg nor were police officials in the nearby town of Ortiz and the state capital San Juan de los Morros available to comment.

Zhang Fan, an official at the investor relations department of China Railway Group Ltd. (601390), the listed subsidiary of China Railway Engineering, did not respond to an e-mailed list of questions seeking comment on the workers’ disputes. Feng Qihua, a Beijing-based spokeswoman for CDB, did not respond to two phone calls to her office and an e-mail about the bank’s lending to Venezuela. Officials at China Railway’s office in Caracas said they were not allowed to give interviews and did not respond to a letter seeking comment on the workers’ complaints.

Venezuela’s Information Ministry didn’t respond to an e- mail request for government comment on the alleged abuses and criticism by the opposition that the loans benefit China more than Venezuela.

‘Complete Nonsense’
Hong Lei, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said that any notion that Chinese lending was meant to influence Venezuela’s election is “complete nonsense.”

“In recent years, China and Venezuela have started sizeable financial collaborations based on the principle of mutual benefit,” Hong told reporters in Beijing on Sept. 25. “Such investments are mainly used in development projects in Venezuela’s agriculture, infrastructure and energy sectors which are beneficial to the country economically and socially.”

China’s policy is to stay out of politics, Liu said in the March interview on the sidelines of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory group to the country’s legislature. Still, he praised Chavez’s nationalization of oil assets as a move that brings the country’s resource wealth closer to the Venezuelan people.

“What he’s done is amazing,” Liu said. “He’s a people’s president.”

‘Brother’ Liu
Chavez has responded in kind, referring to Liu as his “brother” at a Feb. 24 ceremony welcoming a delegation of Citic executives.

“China is large but it’s not an empire,” Chavez said on the occasion, holding a 600-page blueprint for Venezuela’s development over the next two decades presented in an earlier trip to Caracas by CDB Chairman Chen Yuan. “China doesn’t trample on anyone, it hasn’t invaded anyone, it doesn’t go around dropping bombs on anyone.”

Opposition lawmaker Julio Montoya said in an interview that the loans lack transparency, benefit Chinese manufacturers at the expense of local ones and may violate a 2005 law by offering the country’s natural resources as collateral. Capriles has said he’ll review the terms of the loans to ensure their legality if he wins next month’s vote.

“There’s no doubt we’re going to need China -- they are an economic powerhouse,” Capriles said in a Feb. 7 press conference. “But many of the agreements the government has signed involve political loyalties that don’t interest us.”

U.S. Concerns
The U.S., which buys 9.7 percent of its oil from Venezuela, has remained largely silent about China’s outreach. That’s because rising production levels in countries such as Brazil and Canada will be able to make up for any potential shortfall and much of the oil acquired by China is re-sold in Venezuela, said a U.S. government official.

China has avoided friction with the U.S. in Latin America by avoiding overt political engagement with Chavez, said the official, who declined to be named because he isn’t authorized to discuss policy publicly.

“I don’t understand how some Venezuelans dare to question this relationship with China,” Chavez said Feb. 24. “They’ve even said such ridiculous things like that Venezuela is now a Chinese colony.”

Post-Election Reckoning?

If oil prices tumble, and the cost of servicing the loans jumps, the spending boom may come to an end. Morgan Stanley said in a report this month that Venezuela may default on its debt as early as the second half of 2013 unless Chavez takes action to shore up the nation’s “increasingly fragile” finances.

After PDVSA put off investments in its facilities to fund social programs, reviving output won’t be easy. Production is 22 percent lower than it was when Chavez took power in 1999, according to annual statistics published by BP Plc. Venezuelan crude averaged $102.76 in the week ending Sept. 21.

Still, those scenarios, if they materialize at all, will come after Debora Gutierrez casts her vote next month. The 49- year-old retired sales clerk said she wasn’t a supporter of Chavez when he first took office because at that point “no one had given me anything.”

Now, sitting on her bed in a government-provided apartment in Barinas built by Citic, she said she has no doubts about whom she’ll support. “Here in the housing project there’s a fanaticism for Chavez.”

--Michael Forsythe, Henry Sanderson. With assistance from Nathan Crooks in Caracas and Aipeng Soo in Beijing. Editors: Joshua Goodman, Harry Maurer

To contact the reporter on this story: Charlie Devereux in Caracas at cdevereux3@bloomberg.net; Michael Forsythe in Beijing at mforsythe@bloomberg.net; Henry Sanderson in Beijing at hsanderson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for

[admin]

Escuchando a Plosser en Fox Business.

Las ventas retail suben 1.7%. Libro rojo.

VIX up 14.35

-25.84

En negativo gracias a las palabras de Plosser. El QE3 no ayudara y encima compromete la independencia del Fed a un mes de las elecciones.

[admin]

Oil down91.35

Ag down 33.91

-27.09

[admin]

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html