Miércoles 24/10/2012 el anuncio del Fed

[Luis78]

Especulan que Trump presentará papeles del divorcio entre Michelle y Barack Obama

[admin]

Esa era la bombita que anuncio Trump.

[admin]

Alemania +0.33%

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Los futures del Dow Jones 37 puntos al alza.

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Europa al alza.

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[admin]

Oil up 86.69

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http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

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Quién les conviene a los inversionistas: Obama o Romney?

Por JASON ZWEIG
En las próximas semanas, los inversionistas serán bombardeados con análisis sobre el impacto que los resultados de las elecciones presidenciales en Estados Unidos tendrán en los mercados financieros.

Antes de que siquiera considere cambiar su portafolio con base a los resultados previstos o reales de los comicios, es vital analizar primero la sabiduría convencional.

¿Es buena la división política en Washington (o como los estadounidenses lo llaman 'gridlock'), es decir, deberían los inversionistas ir en contra de que el mismo partido controle el Congreso y la Casa Blanca? ¿Quiénes son mejores para las acciones y el rendimiento de los bonos: los republicanos o los demócratas?

La mayoría de las respuestas que probablemente encuentre son propaganda o ilusión; muchas están simplemente equivocadas. Lo que importa son las tasas de interés, no qué partido pasa a través de la puerta de la Casa Blanca.

Desde 1926, cuando se empezó a tener información fiable del mercado bursátil, EE.UU. ha tenido 15 presidentes y nueve elecciones en las que el control de la Presidencia ha pasado de un partido a otro. Esta es una muestra pequeña. Por tanto, debe tomar cualquier conclusión estadística sobre la relación entre los resultados electorales y los retornos financieros con mucha cautela.

Estas advertencias no harán que los expertos dejen de especular. Una de sus creencias más prevalentes es que una división política en Washington es buena para la bolsa. Y un Congreso dividido es lo que muchos pronósticos políticos prevén, con el Presidente Obama ganando la reelección, los demócratas manteniendo la Cámara Alta y los republicanos reteniendo la Cámara Baja.

Sin embargo, un estudio meticuloso de la evidencia demuestra que "el estancamiento político no es beneficioso para las acciones", dice Robert Johnson, profesor de finanzas en la Universidad de Creighton, en Omaha. En un artículo en desarrollo que cubre desde 1965 hasta 2008, él y sus colegas descubrieron que la división en el Congreso y la Casa Blanca no tuvo ningún efecto en los retornos de las compañías grandes representadas en el índice Standard & Poor's 500. Los títulos de empresas más pequeñas (medidos por la firma Dimensional Fund Advisors) rindieron en promedio 21 puntos porcentuales menos durante años en que Washington estuvo estancado frente a épocas en las que el Congreso y la Casa Blanca estuvieron bajo el mismo partido.

Las confrontaciones políticas tienen sus ventajas. Los bonos corporativos han rendido un promedio anual de casi nueve puntos porcentuales más en años de enfrentamiento político que en años de harmonía gubernamental. "El estancamiento reduce las posibilidades de la iniciación de programas gubernamentales importantes, que pueden ser inflacionarios" y pueden perjudicar los precios de los bonos, dice Gerald Jensen, colega de Johnson y profesor de finanzas en la Universidad de Northern Illinois.

Ciertamente parece importar qué partido controla la Casa Blanca. Desde 1926, el índice Standard & Poor's 500 ha aumentado casi el doble bajo presidentes demócratas que bajo republicanos, de acuerdo a los analistas bursátiles cuantitativos Pankaj Patel y Joseph Handelman, de Credit Suisse CSGN.VX -0.98%. Los valores han acumulado un retorno anual promedio de 15,4% cuando un demócrata ocupa la Casa Blanca, comparado a 7,8% bajo presidentes republicanos.

Esto no significa que las acciones están destinadas a dispararse si el presidente Barack Obama es reelegido. Pero como indica Adam Parker, estratega principal de bolsa de Morgan Stanley MS -1.95%en EE.UU., la elección presidencial no ha resultado en un demócrata en la Casa Blanca con el Congreso divido de esa manera en al menos 112 años. Por tanto, los promedios históricos quizás no importen.

El dominio de los retornos bursátiles bajo los demócratas podría ser una especie de ilusión estadística. La investigación del profesor Johnson y sus colegas sugiere que la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal es mucho más importante.

Desde 1965, de acuerdo al estudio, las acciones de alta capitalización han rendido un promedio anual de cerca de 12 puntos porcentuales más cuando la Fed ha recortado las tasas de interés que cuando las ha aumentando. (Los investigadores comenzaron su análisis en 1965, cuando se inició la política moderna de la Fed). Durante el mismo período, la diferencia en los retornos bursátiles bajo presidentes demócratas comparada a republicanos fue menos de siete puntos porcentuales; un análisis estadístico demuestra que el efecto de la política de la Fed hace palidecer el impacto del partido presidencial.

En resumen, las decisiones de la Fed importan más que los partidos políticos. Los presidentes demócratas tuvieron la suerte de beneficiarse desproporcionadamente de los periodos en que la Fed reducía las tasas de interés —que es como combustible de cohete para los retornos bursátiles. Eso fue particularmente cierto para las acciones de empresas pequeñas, que han retornado 26 puntos porcentuales más en promedio durante años en que los que la Fed ha reducido las tasa en vez de aumentarlas. "No existe una relación sistemática entre el partido del presidente y los retornos de activos", dice Johnson.

¿Qué significa todo esto para los inversionistas? No permita que nadie lo asuste y lo lleve a hacer grandes cambios en sus inversiones debido a que un partido u otro se apodera de la Casa Blanca. Independientemente de quien gane, es la dirección del cambio en las tasa de interés lo que determinará la diferencia más grande en los retornos de los mercados financieros.

[admin]

Futures cu up 3.54

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La confianza de los negociso caen en Alemania.

Moody's pone a Rosneff en revision para un probable downgrade.

[admin]

Dicen que Romney no podra ganar la presidencia si no gana Ohio, Romney estuvo muy por debajo de Obama en ese estado hasta ahora, finalmente ha logrado empatar a Obama, la tendencia de mejoria para Romney sigue. Ese estado es clave para el Repuiblicano, ningun presidente Republicano ha logrado la presidencia sin ganar ese estado. Recordemos que ese es el estado donde estan las automotrices y los grandes sindicatos son tradicionalmente democratas. Esto esta de candela.

[admin]

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FB +23.89% gracias a sus buenos resultados, esta en 24.07

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Au up 1,710

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Donald Trump to reveal 'Michelle and Barack Obama's divorce papers', claims respected financial punditBy Daniel Bates
PUBLISHED: 14:16 EST, 23 October 2012 | UPDATED: 02:08 EST, 24 October 2012
Comments (1021) Share

..
Donald Trump is to claim that he has unearthed divorce papers of Michelle Obama and the President, according to a respected financial pundit with links to the tycoon.
It is alleged that the eccentric real estate mogul will claim that the documents show the First Lady and the President were at one point in their two decades of marriage seriously considering splitting up.
Trump set the hare running on Monday by claiming that he was set to make an announcement on Wednesday that would be ‘bordering on gigantic' and that it would ‘possibly’ change the Presidential race.
Scroll down for video

'Gigantic': Author and investor Douglas Kass (left) claimed that Donald Trump (right) has 'unearthed divorce papers' between the President and his wife






Affection: It is not the first time there's been claims the Obama marriage was in trouble, but the President and the First Lady showed nothing but tenderness towards each other on the debate stage last night


The billionaire told Fox & Friends that he had 'something very, very big concerning the president of the United States'. 'It's going to be very big. I know one thing- you will cover it in a very big fashion’.
Trump declined to elaborate, but today an investor who appears on the same business talk show as him claimed to have more details.
Douglas Kass, a Florida-based investor who appears on CNBC’s talkshow ‘Squawkbox’ where Trump is often a commentator, tweeted to his 48,000 followers: 'High above the Alps my Gnome has heard that Donald Trump will announce that he has unearthed divorce papers between the Prez and his wife.'


Gnome: Douglas Kass' tweet this morning. He and Trump appear on CNBC's business show Squawkbox regularly




When asked about the Tweet, Trump spokeswoman Holly Lorenzo told MailOnline: ‘All we know is that he is going to announce it on his Twitter and Facebook accounts tomorrow. I don’t know what time it will be, that’s all I know.'

Interviews with both Kass and Trump appeared on the show’s website this morning.
Kass is an author, the founder and President of Seabreeze Partners Management and has also appeared in newspapers including the Wall St Journal and the New York Times.
The claims about divorce papers have previously been made in a book released earlier this year by author Ed Klein. The White House rubbished the allegations then and claimed Klein had a history of making things up.
More...Too little too late, Mr President? Romney DOUBLES his lead in new national poll just hours after Obama goes to war in final TV debate
'Barack sunk Mitt's battleship'! Obama's debate zinger sparks internet craze . . . and Romney's also skewered on 'horses and bayonets'
Sorry Mr President, but the troops DO need horses and bayonets! Obama zinger over 'old-fashioned' fighting techniques ignores their continued use
Toby Harnden's analysis: Obama may have won the debate battle but he knows he is losing the election war to Romney
Has Anna Wintour banned designers from dressing Ann Romney? Why the fashion industry appears to be snubbing Mitt's wife


Trump also has a questionable record when it comes to his own allegations, most notably being a leading ‘birther’, so-called because he believes Obama was born in Kenya and not Hawaii, thus disqualifying him from being President of the United States.

The host of The Apprentice even claimed to have sent investigators to Hawaii in his failed attempt to prove the theory.
Despite the support of the Tea Party the issue went away when the President released the long form of his birth certificate last year.



Friends and enemies: Trump and Obama are very public enemies but the billionaire mogul has endorsed Republican challenger Mitt Romney
The President also spent a portion of his speech at the White House Correspondent's Dinner in April 2011 taking jabs at Trump.
He said: 'Now, I know that he’s taken some flak lately, but no one is happier, no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the Donald.

'And that’s because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter - like, did we fake the moon landing? What really happened in Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac?'
The two men have however remained very public enemies. Obama has branded Trump a ‘carnival barker’ and Trump in reply refers to the incumbent as ‘the worst president ever’ and even threatened to run against him.
He toured New Hampshire and said very clearly that he was seriously contemplating a shot at the presidency. Later he became something of a political touchstone for the various Republican candidates and eventually endorsed Mitt Romney.


Anniversary: The Obama's recently celebrated their wedding anniversary and are pictured here on their big day on October 3, 1992



A FEW BUMPS BUT 20 YEARS OF DEVOTIONThe Obamas recently celebrated their 20th wedding anniversary, marking two decades of love and devotion to each other.
The milestone fell on Wednesday October 3 which was the same date as the President’s first debate with Republican rival Mitt Romney. That Saturday they made up for it with a romantic dinner at the Bourbon Steak at the Four Seasons hotel in Washington, DC.
To mark the occasion Mr Obama tweeted: ‘Twenty years ago today, I married the love of my life and my best friend. Happy anniversary, Michelle.’
His wife Tweeted back: ‘Happy 20th anniversary, Barack. Thank you for being an incredible partner, friend and father every day. I love you!’
The Obama’s journey together when she was a 25-year-old Michelle Robinson and he was a 27-year-old lawyer in the making. They met at the Chicago corporate law office where she was his mentor, and neither have looked back from there.
She supported him during his failed bid to be the Democrat challenger for a Chicago House seat in 2000. She was also at his side four years later when he tried for a Senate seat in Illinois and won.
According to author Jodi Kantor, who has written about the Obamas, now they are in the White House they are known as being ‘introverted’ and are not Washington schmoozers.
Family seems to be their priority and the couple have also often spoken of how they insist on both being at the dinner table every day so that they can eat with their two children, Malia, 14, and Sasha, 11.
In interviews, the Obamas have in the past admitted going through a rocky patch but now say they have patched things up and are stronger than ever.

But they have not lost their sense of humour and Mr Obama has previously joked that his wife forgot their first wedding anniversary, which fell on a Saturday.
She supposedly told him: ‘What’s on Saturday?’
..
In Klein’s book, called ‘The Amateur’, he claimed that Mrs Obama prepared the divorce papers to separate from the President in 2000 following his disastrous attempt to win a House seat in Chicago.
After he lost miserably the future First Lady was supposedly disgusted that her husband had put at risk their ‘stable and secure future’.
The book claims their marriage - in its eighth year at the time - was ‘on the rocks’ with Mr Obama so depressed some of his friends feared he was suicidal.
In the end Mr Obama ran for a Senate seat in Illinois and won it in, assuming office in 2005 and restoring her faith in him.
Among the other claims in Klein’s book are that Bill Clinton branded Mr Obama an ‘amateur’, which was denied by the former President.
The Obamas, who have two children, Malia, 14, and Sasha, 11, have now been married for 20 years and repeatedly share publicly their continued affections and love for each other.



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z2ADemOOYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

[admin]

Eso de que una pareja en sus 20 anios de matrimonio haya estado a un paso de divorciarse no es noticia para nadie, espero sea todo especulacion, por que si sale al aire, creo que la reaccion va a ser a favor de Obama.