Martes 15/01/13, Ventas retail, Manufactura en NY

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BOJ advierte panorama económico débil, reafirma promesa alivio monetario
martes 15 de nero de 2013 06:29 GYT Imprimir
Por Leika Kihara

TOKIO (Reuters) - El gobernador del Banco de Japón, Masaaki Shirakawa, dijo el martes que el banco central continuará con su poderosa flexibilización monetaria debido a que la economía probablemente se mantendrá débil por el momento.

Shirakawa mantuvo la opinión del banco central de que la economía eventualmente reanudará una recuperación moderada con el crecimiento en el extranjero emergiendo gradualmente de una desaceleración, ayudado en parte por la capacidad de recuperación de la demanda interna.

Sin embargo, advirtió que el panorama sigue siendo muy incierto, apuntando a riesgos como una continua desaceleración en el crecimiento en el extranjero y una disputa diplomática con China, que ha afectado las ventas en uno de sus mayores mercados de exportación.

"Las exportaciones y la producción fabril están declinando debido a que el crecimiento económico en el extranjero continúa desacelerándose", dijo en una reunión trimestral de los gerentes de las sucursales regionales del banco central.

El BOJ (por su sigla en inglés) se encuentra bajo intensa presión del primer ministro Shinzo Abe, cuyo partido volvió al poder en una elección de la Cámara baja en diciembre del año pasado, para actuar con mayor resolución para derrotar a la deflación.

El banco central, que alivió su política en cinco ocasiones en el 2012, considerará expandir nuevamente su estímulo y duplicar su objetivo de inflación a un 2 por ciento este mes, dijeron fuentes a Reuters.

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La economia de Alemania se contrajo a 2% en el anio. Finalmente sucumbio a la crisis Europea.

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Alemania -1.06%

Yields down 1.82%

Yen up 88.60

Euro down 1.3329

Los futures del Dow Jones 47 puntos a la baja antes de los datos economicos en US.

Au up 1,680.90

Oil down 93.68

Brent down 111.60

Francia -0.44%

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Au up 1,681.50

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Au up 1,684.30

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AAPl +0.16%

FAS -1.51%

EDC -2.27%

ERX -1.07%

USO -0.50%

C -0.85%

JOM -0.83%

BAC -0.61%

RIO +0.27%

FB +0.75%

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La economia de Alemania se desacelera profundamente

La eocnomia Alemana finalmente sucumbio a la debilidad del resto de la zona euro, registrando una contraccion en el cuarto trimestre el anio pasado que hace inevitable que el resto de Europa corra la misma suerte.

La economia de Alemania se expandio 0.7% en el 2012, pero su GDP (PBI) cayo 0.5% en el cuarto trimestre. Eso es igual a una contraccion del 2% en terminos anuales, JPM estima. Sera tambien la primera contraccion del GDP Aleman desde el cuarto trimestre del 2011, cuando la economia se contrajo 0.1%

Germany's Economy Slows Markedly

By NINA KOEPPEN and PAUL HANNON
WIESBADEN, Germany—The German economy has finally succumbed to the weakness gripping the rest of the euro zone, registering a contraction in the fourth quarter of last year that makes it all but inevitable that the currency area as a whole shared the same fate.

Germany's federal statistics office Destatis Tuesday said Europe's largest economy expanded 0.7% in 2012, but its gross domestic product fell by 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

That equates to a contraction of 2.0% in annualized terms, JP Morgan JPM -0.57%estimates. It would also be the first quarterly contraction in German GDP since the fourth quarter of 2011, when the economy shrank 0.1%.

The euro-zone economy contracted in both the second and third quarters as austerity programs and rising unemployment ensured that output fell in large members such as Spain and Italy. But Germany continued to grow, buoyed by falling unemployment and its ability to find buyers for its exports in parts of the world economy that have continued to expand.

But those contractions in other parts of the euro zone, and less favorable export markets, finally took their toll in the final three months of the year. And when it came, Germany's economic downturn was deeper than expected, as the majority of private-sector economists had penciled in a quarterly drop in GDP of 0.2% or 0.3%.

But with signs of a pickup in growth in other parts of the world economy, and some indications that the worst of the euro zone's crisis is over, Germany's economy isn't expected to be down for long.

"The weakness will be short-lived," said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit UCG.MI +0.51%in Munich. "Financial markets should pick up further this year as general uncertainty eases, which will help exports and corporate investment."

Mr. Rees said he expects the economy to expand by a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the first three months of this year.

There are some positive signs in the rest of the euro zone that could help boost Germany's prospects in 2013.

The currency area's surplus on its trade in goods with the rest of the world soared to a record high in November as exports from France, Italy and Belgium rose, while imports to those and other members of the currency area fell.

The European Union's official statistics agency Eurostat Tuesday said that without seasonal adjustments, the euro zone had a trade surplus of €13.7 billion ($18.33 billion), up from €4.9 billion in the same month of 2011.

It was by some margin the largest surplus for a November since records began in 1999. The next highest figure for that month was the €8.1 billion surplus recorded in November 2002. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones last week had estimated the surplus at €11 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose by 0.8% while imports fell by 1.5% to give a surplus of €11.0 billion, up from €7.4 billion in October.

The rise in exports was driven by France and Italy, where sales of goods to buyers outside the 27-member European Union rose by 2.9% and 1.8% respectively. Imports to those from outside the EU fell by 3.3% and 4.9% respectively.

The euro zone's trade surplus generated an increase in economic activity in each of the first three quarters of last year, but didn't deliver a large enough boost to make up for weak domestic demand in the second and third quarters. That pattern appears likely to have continued in the final three months of the year.

Although economic growth slowed markedly to 0.7% in 2012 from 3.0% in 2011, Germany's economy held up well compared with the euro zone, which entered recession in 2012, Destatis President Roderich Egeler said.

"Despite the difficult environment, the German economy was robust in 2012," he said.

Exports once again drove growth in Germany, gaining 4.1% in 2012 while imports increased 2.3%, Destatis said. As a result, net exports contributed 1.1 percentage points to annual growth.

"There were mixed signals from the domestic side," Mr. Egeler said. Household consumption increased 0.8% in 2012, while government consumption rose 1.0%.

But investment in 2012 contracted as companies held back spending in light of Europe's debt crisis and an uncertain global economic outlook. "For the first time since the economic crisis of 2009, investment did not contribute to GDP growth," Mr. Egeler said.

In fact, investment in machinery and equipment in Germany was down 4.4% in 2012, while construction investment fell 1.1%, the data showed. In total, gross investment shaved 0.9 percentage points of annual growth in 2012.

Write to Nina Koeppen at nina.koeppen@dowjones.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@dowjones.com

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Las ventas retail subieron 0.5% en Diciembre, ligeramente mejor a lo esperado, pero la manufactura en NY bajo a -7.78

El precio de los productores bajan 0.2%, habia bajado 0.8% en Noviembre.

Oil down 93.78

Sin autos las ventas retail suben -0.3%

Las ventas retail subieron 0.4% en Noviembre.

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Los pronosticos de ventas de Lululemo debajo de lo esperado por los analistas. Acciones a la baja.

Oil down 93.96

Futures cu down 3.6170

-35

VIX up 13.52

Euro down 1.3344

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Copper January 15,08:59
Bid/Ask 3.5969 - 3.5976
Change -0.0204 -0.57%
Low/High 3.5931 - 3.6302
Charts

Nickel January 15,08:59
Bid/Ask 7.7719 - 7.7750
Change -0.0420 -0.54%
Low/High 7.7313 - 7.8592
Charts

Aluminum January 15,08:59
Bid/Ask 0.9078 - 0.9081
Change -0.0022 -0.24%
Low/High 0.8990 - 0.9118
Charts

Zinc January 15,08:58
Bid/Ask 0.8893 - 0.8899
Change -0.0060 -0.67%
Low/High 0.8867 - 0.8989
Charts

Lead January 15,08:59
Bid/Ask 1.0293 - 1.0300
Change -0.0075 -0.72%
Low/High 1.0241 - 1.0422

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London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( January 14 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 5180475 -11425
Copper 330450 +3875
Nickel 144246 -96
Lead 303075 -1575
Zinc 1215650 +375