por admin » Mié Ene 23, 2013 3:05 pm
Options "stradle" ancticipan un movimiento fuerte en la accion.
El costo de emplear la estrategia neutral "stradle" subio a $35.20 la accion. Eso implica un movimiento del 6.9% de las acciones despues del reporte de utilidades. Este seria el movimiento mas grande de la accion en 11 de los 12 ultimos reportes de utilidades.
Esta es una situacion de incertidumbre, la mas grande en mucho, mucho tiempo. dijo un estratega.
Se espera utilidades de 13.47, con ventas de $ 54.7 billones.
Apple Options ‘Straddle’ Anticipates Big Post-Earnings Stock Swing
Kaitlyn Kiernan
Options are pricing in an outsized move for shares of Apple Inc. AAPL +1.63%after the company reports earnings Wednesday afternoon.
The cost to employ a neutral strategy known as a “straddle” soared to about $35.20 a share. That implies a 6.9% move for Apple shares after the company reports fiscal first-quarter results at the close of trading–a swing that would be larger than 11 of the past 12 post-earnings stock moves.
“This is one of the most uncertain earnings situations for Apple in a long time,” said William Lefkowitz, options strategist for vFinance Investments. ”Estimates for iPhone and iPad sales are all over the place. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see a big dollar move in shares tomorrow.”
Apple shares added $7.45, or 1.5%, to $512.17 Wednesday. Apple shares have rebounded 5.4% over the past week after finishing at an 11-month low on Jan. 15.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters currently project Apple to report first-quarter earnings of $13.47 a share on revenue of $54.7 billion. Of 48 analysts polled, earnings estimates range as high as $15.50 a share and as low as $11.97.
The price for a straddle–a strategy involving the purchase of both “put” options, which grant the right to sell shares at a set price by a set date, and ”call” options, which grant the right to buy them–is an indicator of how much a stock is expected to move following a scheduled event. When setting up a straddle, investors look to put and call options with a “strike” price nearest to the current trading price.
The trade looks for the stock to move by more than the price paid in either direction. For Apple, with the pegged move at about $35.20, the strategy looks for Apple shares to move below $476.97–a one-year low–or above $547.37. Apple shares last traded above $547 on Dec. 4.
The straddle gets its name because of how it involves a leg on two sides of a price–one in calls and one in puts. For the position to be profitable, the stock must move by more than the price the trader paid for the strategy.
Over the past 12 quarters, Apple has risen seven times in the session after reporting results and fallen in five instances. On the upside, Apple averaged a 3.8% gain the following day. When it dropped after the report, the stock averaged a 2.8% decline the day after.
Apple shares have moved more than 6.9% on the day after reporting results only once in the past three years. Apple gained 8.9% last April after the company said profit almost doubled amid robust demand for the iPhone in China and purchases of a new version of the iPad.
Implied volatility–a measure of the market’s expectation for big stock moves–rose to 42.90 Wednesday, its highest level since April, according to options-data firm LiveVol Inc. Implied volatility is a key component of option pricing; when implied volatility rises, buyers of options must pay a higher price.
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