Martes 10/08/10 La esperada decision del Fed

[admin]

Para ti tambien Jorge.

[admin]

China sigue exportando como si nada hubiera pasado

El surplus de China subio a sus niveles mas altos en un anio y medio. Importaron menos por lo que subio a $28.7 billones en Julio de $20.2 en Junio.

China Trade Surplus Widened in July

By AARON BACK And ESTHER FUNG
BEIJING—China's trade surplus for July widened to its highest level in a year and a half, government data showed Tuesday, likely adding to the pressure on Beijing to allow faster yuan appreciation.

A sharp slowdown in import growth meant that China's trade surplus rose to $28.7 billion in July from $20.02 billion in June, widely surpassing the expectations for a $19.6 billion surplus in a poll of economists. July's surplus was the highest since January 2009, when it was $39.11 billion.

.The Chinese data come ahead of U.S. trade figures for June, due out Wednesday and likely to show a trade deficit of more than $40 billion.

"This contrast in the trade position of the two most important economies in the world will likely increase the pressure from Washington for Beijing to allow further currency appreciation, particularly in the lead-up to mid-term election in November," wrote Royal Bank of Canada economist Brian Jackson in a note.

July's soft imports growth is the latest sign that economic activity in China is slowing as the impact of stimulus spending, which created a construction boom resulting in massive demand for imports of raw materials and equipment, has faded. Government measures to cool property-market speculation and to phase out polluting, energy-intensive industry have added to the headwinds.

Property market figures also out Tuesday illustrate the slowing construction activity that is leading to lower demand for imported raw materials. China's National Bureau of Statistics said investment in real-estate development, one of the main forms of private investment in China, rose 33% in July from a year earlier to 411.8 billion yuan ($60.85 billion), but slowed from June's year-to-year 46.3% increase to 583 billion yuan. Analysts expect a further slowdown in property investment in coming months.

More
China Real Time Report
.Nationwide property sales fell 15.4% to 64.7 million square meters in July from the year-earlier period. July's sales were down 29.4% from 91.6 million square meters in June.

Despite the decline in sales, urban property prices in 70 Chinese cities were unchanged in July from June, and 10.3% higher than a year earlier, highlighting the challenges Beijing faces in keeping asset inflation in check and dashing any hopes of a potential easing in the sector's tightening measures.

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European Pressphoto Agency

Workers at container berths in Yingkou, Liaoning Province in China on 10 July, 2010.
.Analysts said the resilience of property prices indicates Beijing won't be eager to loosen its measures to cool the sector, including higher mortgage downpayment requirements for second and third homes. They see prices and sales dropping further in the coming months.

Exports grew 38.1% in July from a year earlier, China's Bureau of Customs said, slowing from June's 43.9% rise, but beating economists' expectations of a 36.3% increase.

The data showed no signs that exports to the European Union have been weakening, as some analysts had expected. Exports to the EU rose 5.4% to $28.67 billion in July from $27.2 billion in June, and were up 38.3% from July 2009.

Experience WSJ professionalEditors' Deep Dive: Global Economies Swing on ChinaDOW JONES INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Waiting for the Trade War
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Moving into Indonesia. Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More.Imports rose 22.7%, down dramatically from June's 34.1% increase and well below expectations of a 30.2% rise.

The weak import growth affected stock markets around Asia on Tuesday, raising concerns that softening Chinese consumption could have negative implications for the global recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 2.9% at 2595.27, reversing early-morning gains.

Analysts argued that the higher trade surplus makes yuan appreciation more likely in the coming months. "China says it will allow market supply and demand to determine the exchange rate. Well, the balance of payments is the most important factor in the market supply-and-demand picture," said Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing.

The yuan has risen 0.77% against the dollar since Beijing's June 19 announcement that it would increase the exchange rate's flexibility, effectively ending a two-year peg to the dollar.

—Liu Li contributed to this article.

[Maurice]

Por fin tengo el iPhone 4, Por ahora me funciona a la perfección (en Lima) sin ningún corte de llamada.

[admin]

Yields up 2.83%

Euro down 1.3101

-104.60

[admin]

Maurice dime si no es lo maximo, estoy que tomo fotos como loca, hago videos de todo lo que se mueve, es fabuloso!!!!! I love it!!

[admin]

VIX up 23.66

-107.44

Oil down 79.71

Euro down 1.3097

[admin]

August 10,10:38
Bid/Ask 3.2783 - 3.2828
Change -0.0670 -2.00%
Low/High 3.2622 - 3.3566
Charts

Nickel August 10,10:38
Bid/Ask 9.9836 - 10.0743
Change -0.2835 -2.76%
Low/High 9.9269 - 10.3351
Charts

Aluminum August 10,10:38
Bid/Ask 0.9517 - 0.9562
Change -0.0095 -0.99%
Low/High 0.9476 - 0.9703
Charts

Zinc August 10,10:38
Bid/Ask 0.9270 - 0.9315
Change -0.0295 -3.08%
Low/High 0.9225 - 0.9646
Charts

Lead August 10,10:38
Bid/Ask 0.9429 - 0.9474
Change -0.0368 -3.76%
Low/High 0.9383 - 0.9888
Charts

[admin]

$DXY - Dollar Index (INDEX)

Date Open High Low Last Change % Change
08/10/10 81.13 81.48 80.74 81.42 +0.29 +0.36 %

[Maurice]

Maurice dime si no es lo maximo, estoy que tomo fotos como loca, hago videos de todo lo que se mueve, es fabuloso!!!!! I love it!!

Me ENCANTA!!!!!!!! no lo cambio por nada solo por el iPhone 5

[admin]

Yo igual.

[jonibol]

Lo de hoy me hace recordar lo de fines de 2008, en plena crisis, cuando antes de una bajada de tasa de la FED el mercado caía y caía y tras la decisión, rebotaba para volver a caer... tiempos aquellos.

[admin]

-114.51

[admin]

SPANISHAUGUST 10, 2010, 10:31 A.M. ET
Los mercados en EE.UU. caen tras débiles cifras económicas

Por Kristina Peterson
Dow Jones Newswires

NUEVA YORK (Dow Jones)—Las acciones en Estados Unidos caían el martes por la mañana luego que un informe más débil de lo esperado sobre el comercio en China contribuyera al nerviosismo entre los inversionistas antes de un anuncio sobre las tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal.
El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones caía 122 puntos, o 1,1%, a 10.577, en un momento en que las cifras económicas continúan sugiriendo una desaceleración en el crecimiento tanto dentro como fuera de Estados Unidos.
El Índice Compuesto Nasdaq bajaba 36 puntos, o 1,5%, a 2.270 y el Standard & Poor's 500 retrocedía 14, o 1,3%, a 1.114.
El decepcionante crecimiento de las importaciones chinas, el primer descenso en la productividad estadounidense en 18 meses y una caída del optimismo de los ejecutivos de pequeñas empresas subrayaban la opaca recuperación económica global.
Todas las miradas se concentrarán el martes en si el banco central de Estados Unidos decidirá tomar medidas adicionales de estímulo económico en la reunión del Comité de Mercados Abiertos de la Fed.
"El verdadero análisis tendrá que ver con en qué medida la Fed está preocupada por" la actividad económica reciente, dijo Owen Fitzpatrick, estratega de Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, quien no espera medidas significativas del banco central.
Todos los componentes del Dow se hallan en territorio negativo. Intel encabeza los descensos con una caída de 2,8%. J.P. Morgan redujo sus estimaciones para 2010 de la firma luego que las evaluaciones de la firma en Taiwán "indicaran que las tasas de pedidos del mercado final de computadoras personales se deterioraron significativamente" durante la última parte de julio.
Los mercados mundiales presionaban a las acciones en Estados Unidos luego que un débil informe comercial en China generara descensos en los mercados asiáticos. El índice compuesto de Shanghai cayó 2,9%. Las importaciones de China se incrementaron en julio 22,7%, muy por debajo del aumento de 34,1% de junio y bastante por debajo de las previsiones de un aumento de 30,2%.
Sin embargo, el superávit comercial del país creció a US$28.700 millones desde los US$20.020 millones de junio, lo que superó las expectativas de los economistas de un superávit de US$19.600 millones.
Por otra parte, el Banco de Japón dejó sin cambios sus tasas de interés y el panorama económico.
En Estados Unidos, la productividad disminuyó sorpresivamente en el segundo trimestre, su primera contracción en 18 meses, en medio de un crecimiento más lento de la producción y de un incremento en los costos laborales. La productividad en el sector no agrícola descendió a una tasa anualizada de 0,9% en el segundo trimestre, según cifras preliminares publicadas el martes por el Departamento de Trabajo. Los economistas esperaban, en promedio, que la tasa registrara un alza de 0,3% en el segundo trimestre.
Por otra parte, el Índice de Optimismo de Pequeñas Empresas, cayó en julio 0,9 puntos a 88,1, informó la Federación Nacional de Empresas Independientes, o NFIB por sus siglas en inglés, a medida que aumentan las preocupaciones frente al panorama a mayor plazo.
Un informe sobre los inventarios mayoristas de junio, que mostró un aumento muy inferior al que esperaban los analistas, de 0,1% en lugar del 0,6% esperado, parecía tener pocas repercusiones en el mercado.
Entre las acciones destacadas, la aseguradora de bonos MBIA ascendía 6,2%. La compañía indicó el lunes por la tarde que su ganancia creció en el segundo trimestre a US$1.300 millones, o US$6,32 por acción, frente a los US$895 millones, o US$4,30 por acción, del mismo período del año pasado.

[admin]

Lo mas probable es que el Fed no tome mayor accion


AUGUST 10, 2010, 5:00 AM ET
Fed Unlikely to Unveil Major Action

By Luca Di Leo

Market speculation that the Federal Reserve will act to boost the economy at its meeting today has grown recently, but most analysts caution the U.S. central bank is unlikely to take any major steps.

U.S. stocks were higher Monday amid investors’ hopes that Friday’s weak jobs report could prompt the Fed to either resume buying assets, reduce an interest rate it pays banks on reserves to zero, or signal it will keep its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero

However, the majority of Wall Street analysts think the economic outlook hasn’t deteriorated enough to warrant more action. And given that the Fed has limited options now that short-term interest rates are already close to zero, they say the central bank probably will want to keep the little ammunition left for when they may really be needed.

Fed officials are almost certain to at least discuss contingency plans for stimulating the economy at their one-day policy-setting meeting, analysts say. In the closely-watched statement following the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee — which will almost surely be updated to reflect the latest doubts about the vigor of the economic recovery — they could also underline that they’re ready to take action if necessary. But they’re unlikely to take any concrete steps at this meeting, preferring to see how the economy develops before the Sept. 21 FOMC meeting.

“The Fed may look for market-friendly ways to adjust the language of its policy statement, but we think it is unlikely to make any structural changes to its operations at this meeting,” said money-market analysts at Wrightson ICAP LLC in a note.

At their last meeting June 22-23, Fed officials downgraded their expectations for the economy, citing the financial market fallout from Europe’s debt crisis. Minutes from that meeting also showed officials warning that further action to support the economy might be needed if the outlook were to “worsen appreciably.”

The labor market has weakened since then, but not as much as the headline numbers suggested. The jobs report showed the economy shed jobs for the second straight month in July due to an expected drop in temporary government workers who had been hired for the 2010 census. Private-sector jobs rose for the seventh month in a row, though at a slower pace than earlier in the year. And financial markets have recovered somewhat, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks index up around 3% since the June meeting.

Taking additional stimulus measures could make the Fed lose credibility because it would signal a loss in confidence in its most recent forecasts, warn analysts at Barclays Capital. Although data has been softer recently, “it wasn’t weak enough to warrant such an abrupt change in the Fed’s view,” they say.

Michael Feroli, economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, believes the most the FOMC could do would be to tweak the policy guidance paragraph in its statement to express an increased willingness to take action if necessary. The phrase that the Fed “will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability” could be beefed up to give a stronger message like: “is prepared to take further policy actions as needed.”

The Fed could resume purchases of Treasury debt or mortgage-backed bonds, likely by using proceeds from existing holdings of such debt as they mature — at least to start with. It could stop paying interest on the excess reserves that banks hold at the Fed to encourage banks to lend more. The central bank currently pays 0.25% on excess reserves. Or it could try making a more explicit pledge to keep its benchmark short-term rate near zero for longer than the “extended period” phrase it has been using since March 2009.

But most analysts believe the Fed will only talk about these options at Tuesday’s meeting — leaving any action for if and when the economic outlook gets really bad. Dan Greenhaus, analyst with Miller Tabak & Co., believes the Fed will adopt a “wait and see” attitude, assessing incoming economic data and any further developments in the fiscal outlook before the Sept. 21 meeting.

After all, it was only a week ago that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a rather optimistic note about the economy’s outlook. The Fed chief said he expects the recovery to continue, and indicated it may gather steam over time as consumer spending growth is likely to pick up in coming quarters, helped by gains in income and better access to credit.

And it was less than three week ago that Bernanke said during his semi-annual report to Congress that the Fed is “not prepared to take any specific steps in the near term particularly since we’re still also evaluating the recovery and the strength of the recovery.”

There’s one significant outlier. Economists at Goldman Sachs think the Fed will take a “baby step” to help the economy at their meeting Tuesday. Cautioning it’s a “fairly close call,” they expect the Fed to announce they’ll reinvest the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into bonds.

[admin]

baby steps are good, pasos de bebes son buenos, creo que el Fed va a tener que lanzarnos un huesito para contentarnos ya que estamos invertidos hasta la ninia de los ojos.

Parece que los traders estan acelerando sus compras acercandonos a las 2:15

VIX up 23.34

Oil down 80.35 pero ha mejorado horrores.

Yields subiendo a 2.83% buen signo de que se estan comprando mas acciones que bonos.

-84.92